5-Unit Best Bet event COVERS (Ohio State)
last night. Click on the “3 Day Triple”
package for all remaining college FOOTBALL releases, along with hoops which are
UNDEFEATED (3-0) so far in 2009
TUESDAY BEST BET DOUBLEHEADER (“SEVEN” combined units of BEST
BET action)
--“4 UNIT” BEST BET MONSTER (Georgia at Georgia Tech)
tips off at 7:05 eastern in the first college HOOPS top wager of 2009
--GMAC BOWL BEST BET
SIDE (Ball State
versus Tulsa)
kicks off at 8:05 eastern on ESPN
STAGGERING 11-4
PAST TWO YEARS WITH RARE COLLEGE FOOTBALL “5 UNIT” BOMBSHELLS (including OHIO STATE
last night)
ALL “5 UNIT” BEST BETS 14-6 since mid-September
(9/13)
2-0 “BCS Bowl” BEST BETS
so far (including Utah’s shocking OUTRIGHT
upset of Alabama)
2-1 premium service NFL Wildcard “sides” during the weekend
(including Eagles yesterday)
5-UNIT BEST BET COVER LAST NIGHT IN THE FIESTA BOWL (24-21 final
score)
TONIGHT'S SPECIAL "5 UNIT"
REDZONE BEST BET (Ohio State +9 versus Texas
in the Fiesta Bowl which kicks off at 8:15 eastern on FOX-TV): One of the keys to this selection has to do
with players actually RETURNING to Texas
next season. Star quarterback Colt McCoy
has indicated that he will forgo NFL riches for another campaign which means
odds are this team will be back the college football elite come next year at
this time. The real big news is that the
leading wide receiver for the Longhorns Jordan Shipley HAS been granted an
EXTRA YEAR of eligibility by the NCAA due to a handful of major injuries that
he sustained early in his career. On the
flipside, tonight most like will be the FINAL time that Ohio State star running
back Chris "Beanie" Wells (junior) will suit up for the Buckeyes as
even his head coach admits that he will opt for the NFL early. The bottom line is that we have a
VETERAN-LADEN underdog that has a ton of players on both sides of the football
who are seeking REDEMPTION in what for most will be their final collegiate
appearance. To put this in proper
perspective, Ohio
State entered this season
with TWENTY projected starters that were either juniors and
seniors. These are the same host of
players who for consecutive seasons were humiliated in the BCS Championship
game which Ohio State lost by a combined 79-38 count. I am fully aware that Texas came all of ONE SECOND away from
participating in this year's BCS Championship and is seeking redemption, but
one can also make an argument that they are in a "letdown" spot this
evening. We already have seen one squad
that was on the fringe of making the BCS title game (Alabama) lose OUTRIGHT against an opponent
from the Mountain West Conference. Not
only are the many Ohio State seniors who have been humiliated in consecutive
postseason appearances wanting to go out on a positive note, they are also
representing an entire conference that desperately needs something good to
happen with the entire nation watching.
It was exactly one week ago when one of the Big-10 Conference Bowl
participants (Northwestern) extended a member of the mighty Big-12 draw (Missouri) into OVERTIME,
so anything is possible. I am fully
aware that the postseason so far (1-5 SU/2-4 ATS) has been a disaster for
Big-10 Conference participants, including Penn State's
high profile Rose Bowl appearance. For
those of you who watched the Rose Bowl, you know that Penn State
despite a disastrous second quarter, nearly rallied in the second-half to COVER
a spread that is very similar to the one we have this evening. To give you an idea the vital IMPORTANCE of
tonight's game for all Big-10 schools, the conference had too FEW "bowl
eligible" teams to fit an invitation to the Motor City Bowl which was one
of the early contests, so this league desperately needs something to go right
and tonight marks the FINAL shot of this particular postseason for that to
happen. Not only has Ohio State
been manhandled in each of the last pair of BCS Title games, they also got
squashed early in the season by a 35-3 count in a visit to USC out on the west
coast. In that particular contest,
then-Buckeye quarterback Todd Boeckman threw 2 interceptions and was SACKED 4
different times. Since that week-three
disaster, Ohio State has turned to freshman Terrelle
Pryor as their starting quarterback. To
make a long story short, Pryor has been tagged as a "once in a
lifetime" athlete and hs this week been compared to former Texas signal caller
Vince Young who a few years ago led the Longhorns to a national title. What the "2007 high school player of the
year" has done is give the Buckeyes normally conservative offense an extra
dimension. Since becoming the starter,
Pryor has passed for more than 1,200 yards (12 touchdowns and only 4
interceptions). But the big news is that
this kid has also RUN for 553 yards and crossed the goaline 3 times in rushing
mode. In the critical category of
SPECIAL TEAMS, Ohio
State has an outstanding
punter A.J. Trapasso who not only is an All-League performer,
he has the knack of punting the football INSIDE the opponents 20-yard
line. Of course the Buckeyes on defense
have been as always outstanding as they have permitted teams to average only 13
games against them. Ohio State
linebacker James Laurinaitis (size and speed) arguably is one of the nation's
best defenders. I want to take all of
you back to last year's Fiesta Bowl where underdog West Virginia who had just
lost their head coach made a STATEMENT against an Big 12 opponent (Oklahoma) and
pulled off the OUTRIGHT upset. It was
two years ago when the Fiesta Bowl staged one of the greatest college football
games of all-time when Boise State won OUTRIGHT as an underog by a ONE point
count in overtime. So far in this year's
BCS games we have yet to have a contest go right down to the wire, but that
could easily happen tonight. Prior to
the 2005 season, these two teams had NEVER met on the same field but have since
SPLIT a pair of encounters with the "rubber match" being tonight. I did some research and found that the only
time Texas appeared in the Fiesta Bowl was way
back in 1996 when they LOST to an opponent (Penn State)
from the Big-10 Conference. My research
also indicates that Ohio State has NEVER lost when playing a postseason game
in the state of Arizona! As mentioned earlier in this analysis,
tonight's underdog is loaded with VETERAN players (juniors and seniors) and had
9 returning OFFENSIVE starters this campaign along with 9 returnees on the
DEFENSE. Quite simply this is one of the
most talented 9-point underdogs that you will ever find
Entering Saturday 13-5 with all “5 UNIT” Best Bets since 9/13 including WINNERS each of the last pair of
Sunday NFL regular season cards. All
college football “5 Unit” events were a staggering 10-3 the past two
years. But due to a 100-yard
interception return late in the final quarter, disaster struck early
Saturday as Buffalo failed to cover the
International Bowl in a 38-20 contest where 15-thousand Buffalo fans made the trip north of the
border and the underdog Bulls at one point were leading OUTRIGHT by a 10-point
margin
TODAY'S SPECIAL "5 UNIT" REDZONE BEST BET (Buffalo +7 versus
Connecticut in the International Bowl which kicks off at 12 noon eastern on
ESPN2): The location of today's game is
inside Toronto's Skydome which just happened to play host to a Buffalo Bills
NFL regular season game last month.
Thus, it is not all that far of a drive for fans of Buffalo's college football team to attend
this contest and they will have more fan support in the stands. This is my personal "2008 College Football Game of the Year"
which involves a very unusual situation.
Regular clients who were with me one year ago for the 2007 version know
that I went out on the limb with a horrible Florida International squad that
ended up snapping a disastrous 23-game losing streak. One of the reasons why I personally pounded
Florida International on that day was because they were hosting the FINAL EVER
game inside historic Orange Bowl Stadium which has since met with the wrecking
ball. The bottom line is that today
marks the FIRST TIME EVER that Buffalo's
college football team is participating in a postseason contest. The Buffalo Bulls actually were invited to
the 1958 Tangerine Bowl exactly FIFTY YEARS ago, but the team voted to
unanimously TURN DOWN that invitation because of a pair of African-American
teammates would NOT be able to participate in the then segregated deep
south. In the 50-years that have passed
since Buffalo
received that postseason invitation, opportunities for African-Americans to
become a head coach at the Division I-A level have been very rare. I am sure most of you are aware that current Buffalo head coach Turner Gill
interviewed for the vacant Auburn position and
was turned down in favor of a coach who has a lifetime losing record. The Southeastern Conference did hire one
black head coach in its long history, but Sylvester Croom was given his walking
papers by Mississippi
State a few weeks
ago. Even though there are just a
handful of African-American head coaches in college football right now, it is
worth noting that both who have so far participated in this postseason
(Miami-Florida, Houston) successfully COVERED the spread in what is yet another
ironic twist. Even though Nick Saban got
top honors with the help of an outstanding recruiting class at Alabama, in my opinion BUFFALO'S Turner Gill hands down is this
year's "college coach of the year".
In the 7-years prior to Gill's arrival on campus, Buffalo
was arguably the worst program in America as they tallied an overall record
(10-69) that was a disaster. Not only
has Gill turned around the Bulls fortunes immediately, he just led them to a
Mid-American Conference CHAMPIONSHIP win against what was then an UNDEFEATED
opponent (Ball State).
I am fully aware that teams from the Mid-American Conference have
struggled so far in the 2008 postseason, but that has only spiked the price tag
for a Connecticut team that went a very poor 2-5 down the stretch. Connecticut
quarterback Tyler Lorenzen has went 1-3 after missing a month with a broken
foot and has never quite been the same.
Buffalo has a FOUR-YEAR STARTER behind center in Drew Willy who arguably
produced the most dramatic moment of the entire college football season
completing a hail mary pass as TIME EXPIRED in a victory against Temple back in
September. One year ago Willy set
single-season SCHOOL RECORDS in completions (258) and highest completion
percentage (68.4). Willy has not missed
a beat this campaign throwing 36 TD passes in his last 625 attempts. Buffalo's
James Starks a year ago became the school's FIRST EVER 1,000
yard rusher. Starks has not
missed a beat this campaign gaining 793 yards on the ground in the last SIX
games combined. Buffalo returned 4 of 5 starters to what is a
VETERAN offensive line that has the ability to win some wars in the pits. The Bulls also have an opportunistic defense
which forced FOUR turnovers in the Mid-American Championship game against a
Ball State contingent that up to that point has turned the ball over just FOUR
times in the entire season. Thw
following may come as a shock to most of you, but Buffalo has a #12 national
ranking and led the Mid-American Conference draw with a PLUS-12 TURNOVER
RATIO. Today is a major REVENGE spot for
Buffalo who has lost 4 consecutive battles with Connecticut by an
overall score (10-129) that is embarassing.
Odds are they can get revenge because Connecticut has gone only 1-5 this season
against opponents with a winning record.
This marks the third top-rated "5 UNIT" Best Bet I have placed
on the Buffalo
Bulls this season and so far they have done very well. Back on election night I mentioned that this
team was getting their first-ever National TV home game on the same evening
that one of the nation's most respected political prognosticators (Tim Russert)
was looking down from above. Russert who
was the long time host of Meet the Press suffered a fatal heart attack during
the summer. On his signature political
talk show, Russert would always end up rooting for his HOMETOWN of Buffalo in the sporting
world. He never got to see the NFL Bills
win the Super Bowl, but the college football Bulls are playing their own Super
Bowl today in the FIRST-EVER Bowl appearance.
This game is being broadcast on ESPN2, as the larger ESPN network chose
instead to telecast college basketball with marquee programs involved. The ESPN slight seems "par for the
course" as a good portion of the country will not get an opportunity to
see the greatest story of this college football season. We have seen several teams like Vanderbilt
and Rice finally win a postseason game for the first time since the
1950's. For Buffalo, it has been exactly FIFTY YEARS
between Bowl invitations and the first-time they have ever actually taken the
field in the postseason
It was a Sugar Bowl BEST BET gift Saturday night as Utah (+6) not only
covered the FIRST HALF line, they won outright by a 21-10 score. All clients were informed that Alabama has dominated
opponents in the first-half thid season by a staggering combined 244-64
count. Thus, it was imperative for underdog Utah to come out of the gate with a strong
first-half and the Utes certainly delivered
20-15 all premium HOOPS in December (all college basketball
Best Bets 5-2 so far)
FOOTBALL BEST BETS 10-9 PAST 15 DAYS (including last Sunday’s NFL
winning “5-Unit” event)
--Best Bet PARLAY sweep in MNF finale (Packers-and-Under)
--Christmas Eve Notre Dame (-2’) wins the Hawaii Bowl by a whopping 28-POINT margin
--last Saturday Bowl System Total of the Year Miami/California
UNDER (51) WINS by double-digits in the Emerald Bowl (41 combined points
scored)
--last Sunday 5-UNIT event Redskins/49ers OVER (37) WINS with
ease in game with 51 combined points scored (13-5
with “5 Unit” bombshells since mid-September)
--last Sunday Bills (+6) fail to cover in a 13-0 home loss against the
Patriots
--last Monday Alamo Bowl Northwestern (+13) COVERS in 30-23 OT tussle
(OVERTIME predicted in the analysis segment)
--last Tuesday Humanitarian Bowl Maryland/Nevada
OVER (60) WINS with ease in 42-35 shootout
--Wednesday Armed Forces Bowl Air
Force/Houston OVER (66) barely fails in 34-28 shootout
--Wednesday Music City Bowl Vanderbilt
(+6) OUTRIGHT versus Boston
College 16-14 (personal
MONEY LINE wager +205 also cashes the ticket)
--Thursday
Rose Bowl Penn State
(+10) fails to cover by FOUR points in a 38-24 setback at USC
--Thursday Outback Bowl Iowa/South Carolina OVER (43) fails
to cover by TWO points in a 31-10 final verdict
--Friday Sugar Bowl Utah
(+6) in the FIRST HALF which they won outright 21-10 against Alabama
--Friday Liberty Bowl East Carolina (-3) fades in the second half and
loses 25-19 straight up against Kentucky
--Saturday International Bowl both Buffalo (+7) and UNDER (51’) fail in a 38-20 shootout
essentially decided on a late Connecticut
100 yard interception return
--Saturday NFL Wildcard Falcons/Cardinals UNDER (51) fails in a contest
with 54 combined points scored
--Sunday Dolphins (+3’) failed to cover in a 27-9 setback versus Ravens
in the NFL Wildcard playoffs
--Monday Fiesta Bowl Ohio
State (+9) COVERS in a 24-21 battle
versus Texas
College FOOTBALL postseason Best Bets so far (8-6)
10-8 NATIONAL-TV BEST BETS THIS PAST 15 DAYS including a
Christmas gift in the NBA as the highly anticipated “Celtics/Lakers” clash
easily staying UNDER the total (201) in a contest that produced just 175
combined points. The Lakers goal in the
offseason was improving their DEFENSE and they ended up snapping Boston’s massive 19-game
winning streak
College FOOTBALL
postseason 18-16 so far (15-8 BOWL BEST BETS dating back to last year)
Last Wednesday Bowl BEST BET underdog Vanderbilt OUTRIGHT
upset in their first postseason straight-up win since 1955 (personal MONEY LINE +205
ticket also cashes)
TODAY'S "3 UNIT" REDZONE
BEST BET BOWL SIDE (Vanderbilt +6 versus Boston College in the Music City Bowl
which kicks off at 3:35 eastern on ESPN):
This is one of those wagers where I feel the oddsmakers have made a
rather loud statement simply by the way they chose to price a particular
contest. The bottom line is that under
normal circumstances, the Eagles should be laying double digits, but this
contest opened at just 4 points, before the line actually dropped. As expected, the line this afternoon offshore
has suddenly soared in the direction of the favorite, which gives us excellent
VALUE with Vanderbilt who is in a very unique situation. It is stunning that Boston College
was not asked to lay more points considering that they just made an appearance
in the Atlantic Coast Conference Championship game. In addition, the Eagles enter this
afternoon's contest riding a 21-game NON-Conference winning streak dating back
to 2004. Boston College
also has won a nation leading NINE consecutive postseason Bowl outings and
today they face an opponent that ended the regular season on a disastrous 1-6
slide. Not only did Vanderbilt crumble
down the stretch, their offense has put up more than 14 points on the
scoreboard just ONCE dating back to September!
One would think that Commodores attack is once again going to have
serious difficulty scoring points against a wicked Boston College
secondary that has 26 INTERCEPTIONS that leads the entire nation. Once again one has to wonder why Boston College
is not laying more points. One of the
reasons may be because this team came into the season with major question
marks, including at quarterback where Matt Ryan had to be replaced. Ryan produced more than 76-PERCENT of the
Eagles offense a year ago and of course he just won a "rookie of the year
award" in the NFL. Not only did Boston College
lose their offensive catalyst, they also lost All-America safety Jamie Silva
who led the team a year ago in both tackles (125) and interceptions (8). Even though Vanderbilt has had their share of
offensive problems, they get a chance this afternoon to go up against a very
young and inexperienced secondary. With
such a low posted total in this contest, one has to wonder if Boston College
will be able to generate enough points to cover the spread. To make a long story short, this team has
actually LOST some of its offensive toughness since long time head coach Tom
O'Brien is now directing the North
Carolina State
program. O'Brien has been one of the
nation's best "spread" coaches, but he no longer can work his
postseason magic with Boston
College who is 0-2 ATS
the past two years in the postseason, which is on the heels of seeing this
school COVER 9 consecutive Bowl outings.
Earlier in this Bowl campaign we saw Notre Dame put an end to a 9-game
postseason losing skid, and this afternoon we just may see Boston College's
nation-best postseason run come to an end.
That is why I am personally making a pair of wagers on Vanderbilt
including on the MONEY LINE (+205).
We saw just last night Rice finally put an end to a severe drought as
they won their first Bowl game since the 1950's. To make a long story short, Vanderbilt (6-6-6)
can put to an end 25 YEARS of consecutive losing seasons, with an outright
upset. I found out this afternoon that
Vandy is considering FIVE different QUARTERBACK options designed to keep the
opposing defense guessing. Even though
Vandy struggled down the stretch, they got off to a 5-0 start for the first
time since 1943 which is almost the last time they won a Bowl game. Here is a 73-PERCENT SYSTEM (40-15 past
decade in Division I-A) which goes AGAINST neutral field non-conference
favorites like Boston
College with an
INEXPERIENCED starting quarterback. Due
to injury, Boston
College is starting
REDSHIRT FRESHMAN Dominique Davis who has made only TWO starts, so that system
does apply. One has to wonder the
incentive for Boston
College this afternoon as
they were just one game away from a BCS-sanctioned Bowl. The situation is completely different for
Vanderbilt who essentially is playing a HOME game as the Music City Bowl is
being played in Nashville
Another Bowl BEST BET triumph last Tuesday as Maryland/Nevada
sailed OVER (60) in a 42-35 shootout
TODAY'S "3 UNIT" REDZONE BEST BET BOWL TOTAL (Maryland versus
Nevada OVER 60 in the Humanitarian Bowl which kicks off at 4:35 eastern on
ESPN): This is one of the postseason
Bowl games where weather can be a huge factor, but the conditions today on the
"blue turf" of Boise State's homefield in the state of Idaho are GOOD
with relatively light winds and temperatures in the low 40's. For those of you who are familiar with the Pacific Northwest, you know that it already has been a
very rough winter with extreme cold and a ton of snow, so the quality weather
today out west with NO snow in the forecast is a big bonus. I fully realize that today's total has risen
significantly from an opening figure of 56' points, but when you look at the
spots for both of the Tuesday evening contests which are well above the 70
mark, we actually have some VALUE with this particular spot and I am taking
full advantage. One of the keys to this
total has to do with what happened to Nevada's
offense exactly one year ago at this time when they were SHUTOUT in the New Mexico Bowl. That Bowl game marked the first time that Nevada was shutdown in
329 GAMES which was an NCAA record. For
the second straight postseason, Maryland is
traveling out west and they lost a low scoring 21-14 contest out in San Francisco a year
ago. With one year to think about those
poor performances, I just have a feeling that both offense will explode this
time around. Another key to this total
surrounds what was supposed to be the Humanitarian Bowl matchup as the
committee was trying to talk a pair of UNDEFEATED teams a month ago (Boise
State, Ball State) to participate in this contest. Of course that never came to fruition and the
Bowl committee had to settle for a pair of "7-5" entrants who have
had their share of defensive struggles. Maryland's came into the
season with a basically "untested" defensive line, while the
stop-unit also was forced to replace All-America linebacker Erin
Henderson. The Terrapins also lost 3
impact starters from last year's defensive secondary, so they certainly needed
plenty of OFFENSIVE production to make this Bowl. That Terps offense returned all 4 wideouts
from a year ago including standout Darrius Heyward-Bay who is one of the
nation's most EXPLOSIVE receivers. Bay
did not play in Maryland's
regular season finale, but from what I have been able to find out he has
sufficiently healed enough from a leg injury and will be able to take the
field. Maryland came into the season not
having a proven rushing attack, but with all 4 offensive linemen returning, the
Terps did produce a #1 team All-ACC Conference performer in tailback Da'Rel
Scott. I will admit that Scott ran for
just 19 yards in the regular season finale, but he has had alot of time to
shake the performance off. Nevada just happens to
have the nation's #2 ranked rushing attack that has cranked
out an average of 291 yards per game on the ground. Quarterback Colin Kaepernick not only RAN for
more than 1,000 yards on the ground this season, he passed for more than 2,500
yards and produced a grand total of 34 TOUCHDOWNS. Nevada's
"pistol attack" produced on average around 500 yards per game this
season, but they also averaged 2 TURNOVERS per contest which just may turn into
"defensive points" for Maryland. Getting back to Nevada,
they actually played on the Boise
State "blue
turf" last month in what turned into a 41-34 shootout, so they have
FAMILIARITY with the surroundings of this Western Athletic Conference facility. The bottom line is that both teams returned
all 4 starters from last year's OFFENSIVE LINE which sets up a very high
scoring affair outdoors in the state of Idaho where the weather conditions are
about as good as one can expect this time of the year
BOWL BEST BET triumph last Monday when Northwestern (+13)
COVERED wire-to-wire in the Alamo Bowl which as you will see in the analysis
below went into OVERTIME as predicted
TONIGHT'S "3 UNIT" REDZONE
BEST BET (Northwestern +13 against Missouri in
the Alamo Bowl which kicks off at 8:05 eastern on ESPN): One of the keys to this selection surrounds
last year's postseason game involving Missouri
when the Tigers pounded Arkansas
38-7 in the New Year's Day Cotton Bowl.
To make a long story short, Missouri
had plenty of MOTIVATION a year ago when they were unfairly blocked from
participating in a BBS-sanctioned Bowl.
Chase Daniel and company let out their frustrations on an Arkansas contingent that just lost the services of their
head coach who is now working wonders at Mississippi. The postseason situation for Mizzoo is
completely different this campaign as this "minor" Bowl appearance is
a huge LETDOWN for a squad that began the season with huge expectations. For a second consecutive campaign, Missouri failed miserably
in the Big 12 Championship game, so they certainly deserve to be in a pre-New
Year's contest. My database research
indicates that schools from the Big 12 Conference who participate in this
contest almost always are suffering from an emotional letdown as the conference
is a horrible 4-10 ATS in this event. Of
course since the Big 12 Conference repeatedly has been featured in primetime
games down the stretch due to BCS ramifications, Missouri has been installed as a prohibitive
favorite which may be a big mistake. I
have found out that the team with MOTIVATION in this contest is actually
Northwestern (9-3) who is coming off their best season since way back in
1996. I have found out that dating all
the way back to the preseason, Northwestern set a goal of WINNING A BOWL
GAME. With an upset tonight, not only
would the Wildcats achieve that goal, they would record the second-10 win
season in school HISTORY. I will admit
that for the most part this has been a down year in the Big 10 Conference, but
the fact of the matter is that tonight we have an underdog that is loaded with
EXPERIENCE as Northwestern has a grand total of 22 SENIORS on their
roster. Those seniors came to the
Wildcats program to play for the late head coach Randy Walker who tragically
died in 2006 after suffering a heart attack.
Taking over for Walker
was former Northwestern linebacker Pat Fitzgerald who just happened to play for
the school in a postseason contest and knows what it is like to suffer a
setback. To put tonight's situation in
proper perspective, Northwestern is 0-5 in postseason Bowl games dating all the
way back to 1949. It has been nearly 60
YEARS since the Wildcats actually won a Bowl game straight up and coach Fitzgerald is highly motivated to get the job
done. Fitzgerald actually pulled off a
mini-coup in the offseason when he landed the services of veteran defensive
coordinator Mike Hankwitz who has brought aggressiveness and sophistication to
the Wildcats defense which has been steamrolled for years. Northwestern returned all 4 of their starting
defensive linemen from a year ago, including Corey Wooten who has 9 SACKS and
15 tackles for loss. I have found out
that Northwestern defensive end Vince Brown who is second on the team in total
SACKS, will return for the first time since suffering a knee injury back in the
beginning of November. Also returning is
Northwestern star running back Tyrell Sutton (776 yards rushing, 30 receptions)
who has not played since suffering a fractured wrist back in late October. Not only does Northwestern get back the
services of their top offensive player, quarterback C.J. Bacher who has been
battling hamstring problems has now been declared HEALTHY. My research indicates that we could be looking
at OVERTIME tonight in the Alamo Bowl. Going into this season, Northwestern was 8-1
in overtime games since the extra session was introduced in 1996. Their win total tied none other than Missouri for most
overtime triumphs at the Division I-A level.
If this contest follows the script, Northwestern
will cover in an OVERTIME thriller
5-Unit NFL events COVER
each of the last pair of regular season Sunday cards
16-9 all college
BASKETBALL so far (5-2 BEST BETS)
Opening NBA 5-Unit bombshell COVERS by 14’ point
margin (12/17) on ESPN
18-16 with
college FOOTBALL postseason releases so far including Division I-AA playoffs. Staggering 7-2 BOWL BEST BETS one year ago (click on
“3 Week TV Blitz Package” for all Bowl wagers now through the BCS
Championship along with the NFL, NBA and college hoops which is 16-9 out
of the gate including 5 out of 7 in the BEST BET category)
14-6 TEAR WITH “5 UNIT” BOMBSHELLS
(including a 27-24 shootout at San
Francisco in an NFL regular season finale)
TODAY'S SPECIAL "5 UNIT"
REDZONE BEST BET TOTAL (Redskins at 49ers OVER 37 in a 4:15 eastern
kickoff): Regular clients will remember
the last time Washington played on the ROAD in a wild affair that featured a
combined 27 POINTS scored in the FIRST HALF alone, but a gut wrenching second stanza
ended up holding that contest below the posted spot. Even though head coach Jim Zorn is a former
NFL quarterback who has worked with many signal callers as a coordinator after
retirement, his Redskins enter today's finale having played below the total in
a mind boggling TEN consecutive games. I
want to take all of you back to the NFL regular season opener when the Redskins
were still learning a new offensive system and were held to just 7 points on
the scoreboard in a setback at Giants Stadium.
But in the next four weeks, that same Washington offense put up 23+ points per
contest as it appeared they would be heading to the playoffs. The bottom line is that the Redskins attack
has been held to 13-or-fewer points SIX different times down the stretch, which
gives up enormous VALUE with today's severely deflated total. Last Sunday Washington
as a team gained confidence with a rare straight-up victory as the defense
handcuffed a Philadelphia
contingent that was attempting to lock up a postseason berth. Going into the offseason, I feel it is imperative
that the Redskins OFFENSE gains some confidence in what essentially is a
meaningless trip across the country for them.
Even though Clinton Portis has been among the league leaders in rushing
for most of the campaign, he has gained only 201 yards on the ground in the
past 4 games combined. From what I have
been able to find out, Portis is at his HEALTHIEST point in three weeks and
will be a vital part of today's offensive attack. The more yards Portis gains, the less
pressure that will be put on the shoulders of quarterback Jason Campbell who
has been criticized in recent weeks.
While Washington has an
OFFENSIVE-oriented head coach, San
Francisco an OFFENSIVE coordinator (Mike Martz) who
most likely will be working his final game with the 49ers, due to a difference
in philosiphy with the head coach. Of
course Martz was the one who directed for years the "great show on
turf" attack in St. Louis
and loves to constantly install passing plays.
But ever since the "old school" Mike Singletary took over as
head coach, the 49ers have emphasized the RUN, constantly putting the ball in
the hands of Frank Gore who is 22 yards shy of becoming the first 49er EVER
with 1,000 yards rushing in 3 consecutive seasons. The interesting thing about the San Francisco offense is
that ever since Shaun Hill took over as the starting quarterback, the team has
constantly been able to move the ball down the field, only to get bogged down
in the opponent's red zone. With Washington's defense in a classic "letdown"
spot after exerting alot of energy in last week's home finale against a
divisional opponent, I just have a feeling San Francisco will be more effective in the
red zone. Last week the 49ers trailed
16-3 in the fourth quarter at St.
Louis, before rallying for a pair of late TOUCHDOWNS
which proved they have a "quick strike" capability. One would have thought that last Sunday would
have produced a very high scoring affair since the 49ers were playing indoors
and that coordinator Martz was returning to St. Louis where he designed so many
high-octane offensive juggernauts. Even
though San Francisco
has now played below the spot in 4 consecutive contests, it is interesting to
note that they have played in some very HIGH SCORING affairs against opponents
from the NFC East. The last time San Francisco faced a team from that highly competitive
division, they lost a 35-22 decision at Dallas. The Niners also lost a home game earlier this
campaign against Philadelphia
who nailed the defense to the tune of 40 POINTS. Getting back to the San Francisco offense,
wide receiver Isaac Bruce has just moved into second-place on the NFL all-time
list for receiving yards with 14,936 and I just have a feeling he is going to
make a run at the 15-thousand plateau before this game is completed. My database research indicates that ROAD
teams like Washington off 4 consecutive low scoring affairs that stayed below
the spot, have actually played OVER the total (35' to 42 points) at a
63-PERCENT clip (105-62) dating all the way back to 1983. But the big news is that San Francisco long term has gone 11-2
OVER/HOME when the posted total has been between 35'-and-38 points! Once again today will be the final game for San Francisco offensive
coordinator Mike Martz who got a chance to work for only a brief time in a city
where the infamous "west coast offense" was created. With this being "throw back
uniform" day in San Francisco,
the Niners will attempt to revisit their high scoring ways of the 1980's when
Bill Walsh revolutionized the league
OPENING BOWL BEST BET MONSTER (12/27) WINS (low scoring Emerald
Bowl with 41 combined points scored)
TONIGHT'S "4 UNIT" COLLEGE FOOTBALL REDZONE BEST BET
TOTAL (Miami at California UNDER 51 in an 8:05
eastern Emerald Bowl kickoff on ESPN):
One of the many keys to this total has to do with the SUSPENSION of Miami's starting
quarterback. The Hurricanes reserve
signal caller is NOT 100% healthy which is an issue I will deal with later in
this analysis segment. When one thinks
of California,
it normally has to do with head coach Jeff Tedford who has a reputation of
being an offensive genius. But before
this season even started Tedford relinquished his play calling duties, and also
changed the Golden Bears DEFENSE from a "4-3" to a "3-4"
allignment. The reason for the switch
had to due with excellent depth at linebacker headed by All Pac-10 senior Zack
Follett. The following may come as a
shock to many of you but California
actually has a TOP-15 national ranking in both SACKS and turnover margin. As you watch this evening's game on ESPN, you
will notice that California's
defense actually looks like those physical stop-units from the Southeastern
Conference but with extra SPEED attached.
The Golden Bears stop-unit actually reminds me of Boise State
as a major portion of the betting public was not aware that statistically they
were one of the better DEFENSES in the land.
That Boise State/TCU clash turned out to be extremely low scoring and
stayed way UNDER the total. Just like Boise State,
we have a school participating tonight (California)
that is much more known for offensive prowess, so I am going to take full
advantage of this inflated total. California actually
entered this season with a myriad of offensive question marks, including at the
quarterback position where two-year starter Nate Longshore proved to be
extremely inconsistant. I can confirm
that Longshore will start behind center tonight, but the main catalyst of the
offense is at RUNNING BACK where Jahvid Best led the entire Pac-10 Conference
in total yards gained on the ground. It
comes as no shock that California
called a substantial amount of running plays this season because the explosive
Best had the opportunity to run behind All-America center Alex Mack who at one
point was considering an early jump to the NFL.
To make a long story short, California
has a completely new cast at the wide receiver position which is extremely
young. Coming into the season, Cal's roster featured a
grand total of just 12 career receptions, with 10 of those catches belonging to
ONE player. Another key to this total
has to do with the SUSPENSION of Miami
starting quarterback Robert Mavre (academics).
For those of you who may not be aware, Mavre broke Tim Tebow's state
high school passing records and is an excellent prospect. Miami's
reserve quarterback who actually split time under center is the same Jacory
Harris who suffered an injury to his THROWING SHOULDER in the regular season
finale. Of course with an extended
period of time to heal that shoulder, Harris is feeling better but the bottom
line is that he is still feeling pain when attempting to throw the DEEP pass
which most likely will NOT be in Miami's
plans this evening. I will admit that
Harris completed 60% of his pass attempts and amassed 1,000 aerial yards, but
that has only helped inflate tonight's total.
Not only is Miami
"green" at the quarterback slot, they have a new cast of wide
receivers. Among the Hurricanes
wideouts, only ONE caught more than 11 passes one year ago. Miami's
lead rusher is Graig Cooper (778 total ground yards) who did NOT run for more
than 52 yards in each of the most recent 3 outings. I will admit that the Miami defense hit a
wall in the final two weeks of the regular season when they surrendered a grand
total of 79 points in a pair of road losses, but that is not all that shocking
considering that young teams tend to get a bit tired last in the regular
campaign. That Miami defense which is littered with speed
and athleticism has had plenty of time to re-charge the collective engine so to
speak. Miami's best players are on DEFENSE led by
linebacker Sean Spence who already has garnered a "conference rookie of
the year" honor. Miami also has defensive end Marcus Robinson
(9 tackles for loss) and defensive tackle Marcus Forston (3 sacks in final 3
regular season contests) who are both budding stars. My database research indicates that Miami is 22-9 UNDER long
term when the posted total is between 49'-and-56 points. California
is 18-5 UNDER after a game where 24+ first-half points were scored. But the big news is a massive 81-PERCENT SYSTEM (35-8 past decade in
NON-Conference settings). This 81%
system takes teams like Miami
off consecutive ugly conference losses where they allowed 31+ points, UNDER the
total. I mentioned earlier that California shockingly
has one of the nation's better defense which just
happens to be ranked #2 in the entire nation with 23 combined
interceptions. I want to remind all of
you about one of California's "step
up" games this season in what turned out to be a very low scoring 17-3
final road verdict at Southern California. Due to that 81% angle which indicates we have
an inflated spot, this in my mind is the Bowl System Total of the Year