Thursday NATIONAL-TV BEST BET (Brewers/Cubs) starts shortly after 8:00 eastern on the MLB Network
7-4 PREMIUM wagers past seven days of coverage (5-3 BEST BETS)
50-45 premium baseball past seventy-five days of coverage (high ranking for the
entire season to date as professionally monitored by www.sports-watch.com)
As you can see below Best Bets SWEPT just prior to a personal
vacation. In my return last night the
ESPN telecast was backed by a pair of two-year UNDEFEATED database angles a
combined 14-0 but the San Francisco Giants ended up losing a ONE run
verdict in EXTRA INNINGS (2-1 final score)
TONIGHT’S “4 UNIT” REDZONE BEST BET
(Giants +135 at Cardinals in a 8:15 eastern start on
ESPN----------Cain versus Wainwright):
Tonight’s ESPN telecast is rather large for one of the participants
since San Francisco
rarely has a shot to be seen nationally across the country. The last time we all got to see the Giants on
a semi-regular basis was when a guy named Barry Bonds was the cleanup hitter. Even though they no longer have a true power
stick in the middle of the lineup, a solid pitching staff currently has San Francisco in the top
spot among all National League entrants battling for a Wild Card playoff
berth. Even though the offense is not
overwhelming, San Francisco
as a team has a solid batting average (.282) on their current tem-game road
trip. Tonight we all get to see
infielder Pablo Sandoval who has hit safely in 20 of the past 22 games while
sporting an overall batting average (.338) that is near the top of the entire
National League. While Sandoval is
making a case for entrance on the All-Star roster, Giants cleanup hitter Bengie Molina has come alive the past couple of nights
swatting FIVE overall hits. Molina’s 45
total RBI very quietly leads all of baseball among catchers and he just happens
to also have a leaguewide third-ranking with 14
doubles. Speaking of doubles veteran
shortstop Edgar Renteria is currently riding his
longest hitting streak (6) since putting on a Giants uniform while swatting 5
“two baggers” along the way plus driving in 9 runners. After a sluggish start Renteria
during the entire month of June (.293) came alive in the batting average
department. Speaking of coming alive
that is exactly what veteran outfielder Aaron Rowand
has done at the plate (.336 batting average) ever
since being moved to the top of the lineup.
Even though St. Louis
has one of their best pitchers on the mound tonight, my research indicates that
Rowand in his career has crushed Adam Wainwright to
the tune of a massive .353 batting average.
It also is worth mentioning that the career numbers Wainwright has put
up against the Giants (0-2. 5.14 ERA) are very poor. This evening Wainwright will have to deal
with a plethora of hot San Francisco
batters including veteran outfielder Randy Winn who has three different “multi
hit” efforts during a current 4-game hitting streak. On the mound for the visitors this evening
will be Matt Cain who is attempting for a third time to win game #10 which
would make him one of only a pair of National League hurlers to reach that
plateau. I will admit that Cain has
struggled recently to reach double-digits in victories but he had been 7-0 with
a 1.87 ERA in nine starts between losses.
Even though Cain lost his most recent trip to the mound, he did rack up
NINE different STRIKEOUT victims in what was another powerful performance. Tonight Cain will be dealing with a
struggling St. Louis offense whose collective batting average in the past week
(.198) has been pitiful which is one of the main reasons the team is currently
mired in a 1-6 slide. Despite a pair of
Albert Pujols homers, the Cardinals manged to lose last night both on the scoreboard and in the
INJURY department. Newly acquired
infielder Mark DeRosa had to exit early with a wrist
injury that has put his immediate status in doubt. Meanwhile St. Louis outfielder Colby Rasmus (2-for-25 slump) is dealing with a possible
hernia. All Star caliber catcher Yadier Molina has missed
some recent Cardinal games due to a thigh problem. According to my database research this is a
spectacular percentage wager as San Francisco is 9-3 for the entire season to
date against opponents with a solid bullpen who has converted at least 75% of
their save opportunities. The Giants
have been WINNERS in 11 of the 15 starts made by Matt Cain while San Francisco has also WON
12 of the most recent 17 tussles with the Cardinals in this series. On the flipside St. Louis has had problems this year (3-9)
against opposition from the National League West. My research has even uncovered a dynamite
“umpire” angle for this evening as the ROAD teams have done remarkably well
(10-4) when Bob Davidson has been calling the balls and strikes. I will wrap up this analysis with a pair of
UNDEFEATED database angles beginning with the fact that St. Louis is 0-7 this season when revenging
consecutive home losses against an opponent.
In the past two years San
Francisco is an unscathed 7-0 after batting .333 or
better at the plate in a three-game span.
In my mind this is the ESPN “statistical lock of the year”
Wednesday’s FREE wager
on the Texas
Rangers (-105) WINS in what turned out to be a Premium/Free sweep
Premium baseball prior to
personal vacation (6/24) pulls off BEST BET SWEEP including a 10-6 Pittsburgh Pirates victory
PART ONE OF TONIGHT’S “3 UNIT”
REDZONE BEST BET DOUBLEHEADER (Pirates -130 at home versus Indians in a 7:05
eastern start--------Pavano versus Duke): Regular clients know that the Pirates burned
me severely last night, but the setback was not as bad as one would think. For some reason Pittsburgh was shutout by rookie David Huff
and entered the final inning trailing by a 5-0 count. Rather than going away easily, the Pirates
promptly rallied for 4 runs in the bottom of the ninth inning and actually
ended the contest with the BASES LOADED.
The ninth inning last night just showed how poorly the Indians bullpen
has been performing as in the past week alone the collective ERA of the Cleveland “stoppers”
(8.78) has been a complete disaster.
Last night new Tribe closer Kerry Wood nearly blew his third save
opportunity since Saturday and literally wiggled his way off the hook. Odds are the Cleveland bullpen will be busy yet again this
evening because starting pitcher Carl Pavano is
having his share of problems. Pavano nailed the Yankees on a very large free-agent
contract and literally was injured for three full seasons. So far in 2009 Pavano
has actually been healthy enough to make the mound for every assignment but
back in April (9.50 ERA) was not all that effective. Once that calendar turned to May the veteran
finally got his act together and posted a stirling
6-1 record. But the fact of that matter
is that Pavano is in another tailspin having allowed
a combined 15 runs in the last pair of trips to the mound. He will be going up against Zach Duke who has
been Pittsburgh’s
most consistent starter and has a decent 3.86 lifetime
ERA when facing the Tribe. I mentioned
in last night’s analysis that Pittsburgh has not
hosted Cleveland
since way back in 2003 and has lobbied major league baseball to make them a
“geographic rival” since the Tribe are located only 134 miles away. For some reason the Indians have not been
excited enough to face the Pirates on an annual basis which is the main reason
why the major leaguer office has not come through with Pittsburgh’s request. The bottom line is that Pittsburgh
is only getting to host Cleveland
again in Interleague play only because this is a matchup of squads from the
Central Division. Prior to last night,
the Pirates were 7-1 at HOME against the Indians since last facing them in 2003
and so far in the month of June the Bucs (5-2) are well above the .500 mark
when playing at PNC Park. I mentioned
that last night Cleveland
activated All Star outfielder Grady Sizemore from the disabled list and he
helped the Tribe both at the plate and on defense making a great play in
centerfield. However Pittsburgh’s rookie centerfielder Andrew McCutchen ended up extending his hitting streak to ELEVEN
consecutive contests last night by knocking in a run and also stealing a
base. Going into last night Pittsburgh was an
outstanding 8-1 for the entire season when drawing a large home crowd of more
than 20-thousand and that most likely will be the case again tonight with a
“geographic rival” making a rare visit.
Despite last night’s victory Cleveland
is a horrible 6-14 long term against the National League Central division. Cleveland
is also weak 8-21 this campaign when coming off a victory. Last night Pittsburgh fell to an awful 7-34 when failing
to score more than 4 runs at the plate, but on this Wednesday they face a
struggling opposing starting pitcher and a squad with an ailing bullpen. Here is an approaching 70-PERCENT SYSTEM
(118-59 past five years with a money line between +125/-125) which actually
goes AGAINST road teams like Cleveland coming off a close victory of 2-or-less
runs, against an opponent who is off consecutive CLOSE defeats of 2-or-less
runs in margin. Basically last night’s
4-run rally by the Pirates in the bottom of the ninth inning set up the
aforementioned 70% system
Premium baseball prior to
personal vacation (6/24) pulls off BEST BET SWEEP including a high scoring
nationally televised 8-4 contest in Atlanta
PART TWO OF TONIGHT’S “3 UNIT”
REDZONE BEST BET DOUBLEHEADER (Yankees at Braves OVER 9 in a 7:10 eastern start
broadcast on ESPN2-TV-------------Chamberlain versus Kawakami): One of the keys to this pick actually has to
do with tomorrow’s projected pitching matchup featuring veterans Andy Pettitte and Derek Lowe.
Odds are that tomorrow’s game will be a lot lower scoring than this
evening where we actually have “value” in the posted total. There has been non-stop coverage by the New York media urging
the Yankees to move Joba Chamberlain to the bullpen
where his array of pitches would be much more effective. To give you an idea how high scoring
Chamberlain’s games are as a starter, consider that the most recent three
posted totals (10, 10’ 9’ runs) have been extremely high. The reason why tonight’s posted spot is
relatively low has to do in part with the Yankees struggling offense which was
held to only 4 hits in a Tuesday setback.
In the past six outings the Yankee offense has scored ONLY a combined 13
runs so the oddsmakers had no choice but to deflate this particular spot. One of the many struggling Yankees is star
Alex Rodriguez whose batting average has fallen to its lowest level (.207)
since he was a mere 19 years old. A-Rod
is now battling both age, fatigue and the much
publicized use of steroids. I just have
a feeling he will be picked up at the plate tonight by Mark Teixeira who used
to play with the Braves and also attended Georgia Tech in the city of Atlanta. Last night Teixeira took an “oh fer” at the plate which makes him a bit under valued. Another reason why tonight’s posted total has
been kept in check has to do with the fact that Atlanta pitchers have recorded consecutive
SHUTOUTS for the first time in FOUR years.
Of course the Braves used to have one of the best pitching staffs in the
game, but the fact of the matter is that the 2009 group has given up the most
homeruns in the entire National League.
On Monday the Braves went with Javier Vazquez who leads the senior
circuit in strikeouts. Last night
Atlanta started Tommy Hanson who is the most “hyped” minor league call up of
the season, but this evening the Braves do NOT have a marquee hurler on the
mound. I will admit that Atlanta offensively has
had problems producing runs but All Star catcher Brian McCann is hitting an
enormous .529 at the dish (3 HR, 10 RBI) during INTERLEAGUE play. After a slow start, free-agent outfielder
Garret Anderson is starting to produce in a Braves uniform. The last three times Kenshin
Kawakami has taken the mound, Atlanta’s
offense has supported him with a combined NINETEEN runs of support. My research indicates that Atlanta manager Bobby Cox who took the reigns way back in 1991 is 81-63 OVER/HOME when facing an
opposing starting pitcher who has control problems issuing more than 2.75 WALKS
per assignment. Also during Cox’s long
tenure in Atlanta,
his Braves have gone 76-50 OVER/HOME following a game that featured a combined
4-or-less total runs
5-3 past eight BEST BETS including a marquee “5 Unit” loss on 6/23 as the Pittsburgh Pirates (5-4
setback) nearly rallied from a 5-0 deficit in the bottom of the ninth inning
leaving the BASES LOADED
TONIGHT’S SPECIAL “5 UNIT” REDZONE
BEST BET (Pirates -105 at home versus Indians in a 7:05 eastern
start-------Huff versus Snell): On the
face of it tonight’s battle between a pair of last place teams does not seem all
that important, but it just happens to be VITAL for a Pittsburgh organization
that has been waiting since 2003 to host an opponent who geographically is just
134 miles away. Most of you reading this
analysis segment are most likely aware how Pittsburgh
owns Cleveland in an NFL geographic rivalry
where the squad from the Steel
City has ripped off
ELEVEN consecutive victories. This is
actually a positive time for the Pittsburgh
sports community as both the NFL Steelers and NHL Penguins have walked away
with national titles in the calendar year 2009.
But the prosperity has yet to reach baseball’s Pirates who come into
tonight’s game 7’ games out of the National League Central Division lead. The last time Pittsburgh’s baseball team reached the
playoffs was way back in 1992 when a guy named Barry Bonds was patrolling the
outfield. The last time the Steel City
actually hosted a meaningful baseball contest was during the 1997 pennant race
when the Bucs were just 3’ games behind late in the campaign. The last time the Pirates got a chance to
host the Indians was way back in 2003 and it is worth noting that Pittsburgh
owns a “7-1” series edge in front of the HOME fans. At this point you must be wondering why I
would be crazy enough to put a personal monster investment on the last place
Pirates who are coming off a very poor 1-5 road swing. The main reason is that the Pirates for years
have been pushing major league baseball to get the Indians as a “natural
geographic rival” the same way that baseball’s front office have accommodated
the pair of squads in New York, Los Angeles and Chicago. One of the reasons why the schedule makers
have not reacted is because Cleveland
has NOT encouraged a natural geographic rivalry. This particular situation reminds me of the
battle that independent East Carolina waged
for years in college football when none of the state’s more popular programs
wanted to face them. We also see a
similar battle in college basketball where the more successful “mid major”
programs have been unable to lure the richer schools to their particular
gymnasiums during the non-conference portion of the schedule. The last time we saw both the Pirates and
Indians on the same field was back in 2006 in Cleveland so this indeed is a rare
meeting. I want all of you to be aware
that Pittsburgh actually opened yesterday as a favorite (-115) but the price
tag has actually fallen due to the fact that the Indians have just activated
star centerfielder Grady Sizemore from the disabled list. Even though Sizemore is one of baseball’s
youngest true stars, Pittsburgh
also has an impact centerfielder that bats out of the leadoff slot. The Pirates management actually had to e-mail
season ticket subscribers after the recent decision to trade All Star
outfielder Nate McClouth to Atlanta in order to make room for baseball’s
#1 ranked outfield prospect. All Andrew McCutchen has done in 17 major league games is hit a hefty
.333 at the plate with 9 different “extra” base hits. In the just completed Pittsburgh 6-game road trip, McCutchen went 10-for-29 at the plate with a homerun, 3
triples, 2 doubles and 6 RBI. Baseball’s
#1 outfield prospect who now bats leadoff for the Pirates will attempt to hit
safely in his 11th consecutive game tonight. What has me excited is that McCutchen in 17 games since getting the call from the
minors has played in front of the HOME fans just 4 times. It is safe to assume that there will be
plenty of EXTRA fans in the stands this evening at PNC Park as they get to not
only watch McCutchen in action, but also to see the
Cleveland Indians for the first time since 2003. In baseball circles there has been plenty of
praise in recent seasons regarding Cleveland’s
brilliant and young General Manager Mark Shapiro. In another ironic twist, current Pittsburgh
General Manager Neal Huntingdon actually trained for several seasons under
Shapiro and he is certainly familiar with how the Indians do business. I just talked about the Pirates recent
promotion of a highly rated outfield prospect that is hitting .333 out of the
leadoff spot. In the past week Pittsburgh promoted yet
another outfield prospect as Steve Pearce will be seeing some time in rightfield. Turning
to the subject of Cleveland
the Tribe have been a major disappointment for a second consecutive campaign
primarily due to a lack of pitching depth.
Other than Cy Young award winner Cliff Lee, the
Indians have been filling major holes both in the starting rotation and bullpen
which statistically is one of the worst in baseball. The one star that the Indians have in the
bullpen is closer Kerry Wood who promptly BLEW a pair of saves during the
weekend in Chicago
against a Cubs team he used to play for.
Cleveland’s #2 option in the starting rotation Fausto
Carmona has been hit so hard that he was sent all the way down to Class-A in
order to get his act together. In my
mind tonight’s starter David Huff (10.80 ROAD ERA) is just a “stop gap” measure
for the Tribe and he has allowed a most generous 42 hits in 33 career major
league innings. Pittsburgh’s
Ian Snell has been around long enough to register a WIN at Cleveland back in the 2006 campaign. Even though Snell has a high ERA, he finally
snapped a TEN start winless streak last time on the mound and is in my mind
severely “under valued”. My research
indicates that Snell has an excellent ERA (2.77) when facing INTERLEAGUE
opposition like the Indians. The bottom
line is that with their “geographic rivals” in town for the first time since
2003, the Pirates are going to draw many more fans than normal which opens up a
pair of overwhelming angles from my research.
Pittsburgh
just happens to be an excellent 8-1 this year when playing in front of crowds
of 20-thousand or larger. But the big
news is that Pittsburgh
this season is UNDEFEATED (3-0) when playing in front of at least 30-thousand
fans as they have outscored the opposition by a combined 23-7!
15-12 premium baseball past sixteen days of coverage
25-20 OVERALL PAST SIXTEEN DAYS OF COVERAGE
All premium BASKETBALL sides totals 197-186 in
calendar year 2009 (including a 64-67 mark in the NBA)
50-45 premium baseball past seventy-five days of coverage (high ranking for the
entire season to date as professionally monitored by www.sports-watch.com)
All PREMIUM sides totals 79-80 past sixty-eight days
6-6 all “5 UNIT” Best Bet events since middle of April
--4/15 Thunder (+1’) cover by 42’ points in
NBA regular season finale in a 126-85 rout
--4/19 Hornets/Nuggets UNDER (194’) barely miss in NBA playoff game
with 197 combined points scored
--4/28 Yankees (+100) win by ELEVEN run margin
as the opening baseball mamouth event turns into a no-brainer
--5/4 Magic/Celtics UNDER (188’) WINS in
a 95-90 NBA playoff final verdict
--5/7 Nationals (+135) WIN and snap the
LA Dodgers 13-game home winning streak
--5/14 Royals (-130) fail 9-5 at home in rare National-TV appearance on
MLB Network
--5/21 Diamondbacks (-120) WIN 4-3 at
Marlins as team rallies in honor of a fellow reliever dealing with a family
tragedy
--5/28 Magic/Cavaliers UNDER (191) fails miserably in a 112-102 playoff
shootout
--6/6 Orioles (+105) lose 9-4 at Athletics in rare National-TV
opportunity
--6/9 Penguins (-120) WIN game six of
the Stanley Cup Finals 2-1 at home versus Red
Wings (Pittsburgh
avoids championship elimination two straight years on home ice)
--6/12 NHL Stanley Cup game seven Penguins/Red Wings OVER (5’) misses in a 2-1 final verdict (UNDEFEATED “8-0” season
totals angle fails)
--6/23 Pirates (-105) barely lose a ONE run 5-4 verdict leaving the
BASES LOADED in the final inning (first Pittsburgh
home game against geographic rival Cleveland since 2003)
Third baseball 5-UNIT Best Bet bombshell
WINS on 5/21
The Arizona
Diamondbacks dealing with a tragedy involving one of their relief pitchers
rallied for a 4-3 road triumph
TONIGHT’S SPECIAL “5 UNIT” REDZONE
BEST BET (Diamondbacks -120 at Marlins in a 7:10 eastern start------Scherzer
versus Miller): The bottom line is that
I have been waiting for more than one year for Arizona’s top pitching prospect
to finally gain a victory and that is exactly what happened this past Saturday
in what resulted in an easy 12-0 triumph on the road. For those of you who are not familiar with
Max Scherzer he currently has a solid 3.35 ERA while racking up 33 strikeout
victims in 37 quality innings of work.
Scherzer actually put up similar numbers in his maiden professional
voyage a year ago but has constantly been a victim of a severe lack of run
support from his teammates. Thus,
despite having a career ERA in the THREE’S, Scherzer amazingly has only 1
career victory to his credit which in my mind makes him severely
“undervalued”. Arizona started their current road trip with
one of baseball’s worst team batting averages but in WINNING 3 of the most recent
4 outings, the offense has generated an eye-popping average of more than EIGHT
runs per game which to me means a “take” sign.
It has already been a horrible year in Arizona as the team (15-24) currently is
tied for the bottom spot in the National League West standings and has already
fired their manager in favor of someone who has had virtually no managing
experience. Former pro A.J. Hinch was
called down to the field from a front office spot because the D-Backs felt he
was the best choice to develop some of the prime young talent that is on the
roster. The hiring of Hinch has drawn
negative responses from around the league including the team’s pitching coach
who abruptly resigned. Yesterday the
Diamondbacks seemingly reached an absolute low point with word that relief
pitcher Scott Schoenweis’ wife was tragically found dead in her home which
caused the veteran hurler to leave the team for an indefinite period. Baseball has already had to endue one tragedy
this campaign when promising Angels starter Nick
Adenhart lost his life after a game courtesy of a drunk driver. While the horrible news regarding Schoenweis
has affected the clubhouse, I feel this is going to serve as a rallying point
for the Diamondbacks who as mentioned earlier are loaded with young talent on
the roster. One of those young players
is outfielder Justin Upton who last night swatted a pair of THREE-RUN
homers. After going 4-for-7 at the plate
during a make-up Wednesday doubleheader, Upton
has a fine batting average (.313) and also leads the team in both RBI (26) and
runs scored. I am sure most of you
reading this analysis will be stunned to find out that going into this season
Justin Upton was one of only a few major leaguers ever to have posted a .815 OPS by the rip age of 20 years old. The other major leaguers on that list (Ted
Williams, Mickey Mantle, Willie Mays, Ty Cobb, Frank
Robinson) are all enshrined in the Hall-of-Fame and were superstar hitters
during their playing days. So far in the
month of May Justin Upton (7 HR, 18 RBI) has put up stellar power numbers and
now has hit safely in 23 of his last 25 starts.
Arizona
also has a hard hitting and young thirdbaseman Mark
Reynolds (3 HR last three games) who is just starting to heat up at the
plate. What caught my attention
regarding Reynolds was the amazing 4 different STOLEN BASES that he copped
yesterday. What also grabbed my
attention yesterday was the fact that veteran infielder Chad Tracy who used to
star in Boston picked up his initial 2 hits in the month of May. Tracy has been so bad this month the D-Backs
were forced to bench him in favor of a minor league prospect who just was sent
packing back down to Triple-A. Due to
injury, Arizona
has seemingly struck gold by calling up minor league outfielder Geraldo Parra (7-for-17)
whose promotion was designed to snap some of the youngsters to attention and
forcing them to adapt to a WINNING approach.
While the Diamondbacks have won 3 of the past 4 outings, Florida has gone a
horrible 5-14 so far in the month of May which has made their opening 11-1
start just a distant memory. Florida thrived in April
courtesy of a talented young pitching staff which has already had to deal with
injury and ineffectiveness by projected #1 starter Rickey Nolasco
who has an ERA of more than SEVEN. I
will admit that tonight’s starter Andrew Miller was involved in a winning
decision last Saturday, but he just recently returned from a 4-week injury
absence where he had to deal with a strained oblique muscle. Since that type of injury normally is very
slow to heal, one would think that Miller would be on a strict pitch count
tonight. If that indeed is the case, Florida’s bullpen during
yesterday’s doubleheader was stretched to the limit and is exhausted. Actually in yesterday’s doubleheader marathon,
Arizona also
had to employ 7 different relievers which pitched an
combined 11.2 innings. It may seem
strange but my database research indicates that Arizona is a dazzling 19-5 long term with a
“tired” bullpen that has thrown at least 13 innings in a three-game span. Once again Arizona just yesterday had to deal with a
tragedy to a teammate which is certain to galvanize the clubhouse. Also despite an excellent THREE ERA during
his career, Max Scherzer had not had a WINNING decision until last Saturday’s
12-0 cakewalk and truly deserves to string together consecutive victories
Second baseball 5-UNIT Best Bet
bombshell WINS on 5/7
The lowly Washington
Nationals recovered from a 6-0 first inning deficit and pulled off an
improbable 11-9 victory, handing the Dodgers their first home loss of the
season. All
baseball “5 UNIT” events 3-3 so far
TONIGHT’S SPECIAL “5 UNIT” REDZONE
BEST BET (Nationals +135 at Dodgers in a 10:10 eastern start--------Zimmerman
versus Wolf): Of course the big story regarding
this special pick is the 50-game drug suspension that baseball handed down
earlier today to Los Angeles
slugger Manny Ramirez who will begin serving that penalty tonight. But there are many other “intangible” factors
that had me thinking Washington Nationals even before the suspension became
public knowledge. Last night the Dodgers
ended up setting a modern day baseball record by starting a season 13-0 at home
in front of their own fans. It was way
back in the year 1911 (one year before moving into Tiger Stadium) that Detroit had set the
original mark of starting a season 12-0 at home. If you want to go back into ancient history,
the actual major league record for consecutive home triumphs to start a season
(21) was pulled off in 1880, so it goes without saying that what the Dodgers
are doing right now on the diamond is unprecedented for our oldest professional
sport. What was remarkable about the
Dodgers last night is that they did not suffer an emotional letdown against an
opponent (Washington) who has the worst overall record in baseball, but that
just may happen this evening for several reasons. Wednesday was a very difficult scheduling
spot for the visiting Nationals who had to fly all the way across the country
WITHOUT the benefit of any rest. Just
the day before Washington
had wrapped up a homestand with what turned out to be
a 10-10 slugfest that was suspended in extra innings because of rain. The Nationals should have won that contest
well before the rains came but as has been the case all season, the bullpen
failed miserably. Washington started out the season with Joel Hanrahan as their closer but he has since been removed in
favor of a “committee” setup. Leading
that committee is Joe Beimel who just came off the
disabled list last night and pitched one SCORELESS inning. I bring up Beimel
because he actually spent 3 seasons in a Dodger uniform which gives him special
motivation to actual close a game in this short two-game series. The bottom line is that Washington has had a bit of extra time to
get used to the Pacific timezone which will make them
more competitive late this evening. Even
though the Nationals have won only 7 times this season, TWO of their victories
have come from #5 starter Jordan Zimmerman who is on
the mound this evening. To make a long
story short, Zimmerman was one of baseball’s most impressive unknown hurlers
during spring training and won his way onto the Nats
rotation with what scouts call a nasty array of pitches. Not only did Jordan Zimmerman WIN his initial
pair of major league starting assignments, he gave up only ONE homerun along
the way. I will admit that last time on
the mound Zimmerman permitted a season-high 5 runs, but his manager was
actually HAPPY with the performance.
Zimmerman refused to get rattled after allowing 3 homers and more
importantly walked ZERO batters. Also in
5.2 innings of work, Washington’s
impressive rookie starter racked up 6 different strikeout victims, so we have
one lethal underdog hurler on the mound tonight. I just gave you one “intangible” where Washington had to fly
across the country for last night’s game without any rest, but there is another
factor to consider as the Dodgers who have just set a major league record are
in a classic emotional “letdown” position as their bitter RIVALS (Giants) come
to town starting tomorrow night. As
mentioned at the top of this analysis segment baseball nailed slugger Manny
Ramirez with a 50-game drug suspension earlier today which is going to have a
profound effect on a Dodgers offense that during the 13-0 run of prosperity at
home has generated a grand total of 88 runs which is almost 7 per contest. All Ramirez has done is hit .350 in his
career against Washington
pitching and his statistics so far in the 2009 campaign (.348, 6 HR, 20 RBI)
have been rock solid. To give you an
idea how much the Dodgers are going to miss the “face of the franchise”,
Ramirez is among the leaders in all of baseball in both slugging and on-base
percentage. One could argue that Manny
has been the biggest drawing card for the Dodgers since the days of Fernando
Valenzuela and Ramirez a year ago lifted the franchise into the playoffs. Without Ramirez last season, the Dodgers were
basically a .500 team that leaned heavily on a pitching staff to mask offensive
deficiencies so he is going to be sorely missed. Getting back to Washington their collection of outfielders have combined on 15 homers this year which is NUMBER-TWO in
all of baseball. Nationals
thirdsacker Ryan Zimmerman last night extended the
majors longest hitting streak to 24 games in a row and his batting average
during that run (.353) has been astronomical.
While the Dodgers just lost an impact bat in the middle of their lineup,
the Nationals added in the offseason veteran slugger Adam Dunn who annually
swats 40+ homers and has had a positive impact on the entire lineup. Even though Washington’s offense has been outstanding,
the combination of poor defense and pitching has done them in. However as pointed out earlier in this
analysis, the Nationals have their BEST starting pitcher on the mound tonight
which is one of the reasons why the oddsmakers have not installed this wretched
team as more of an underdog. This
evening we have an almost unheard of setup featuring an “overvalued” favorite
(Dodgers) who just snapped a record that dates back to 1911 and earlier in the
day lost their premier slugger to suspension, facing an “overlooked” squad with
baseball’s worst overall mark (Washington) who has clearly their best pitcher
on the mound
Second NBA postseason 5-UNIT Best Bet
bombshell WINS on 5/4
95-90 final score as Celtics tallied just 36 points in the entire
opening half
TONIGHT’S SPECIAL “5 UNIT” NBA
PLAYOFF REDZONE BEST BET (Magic at Celtics UNDER 188’ in a 8:05 eastern tipoff
on TNT): It was one year ago when Boston
made one of the league’s most dramatic turnarounds by winning the NBA title on
the strength of a smothering defense. Of
course the Celtics defense this campaign took a dramatic hit when the 2008
“defensive player of the year” Kevin Garnett went down with what looks like a
season-ending knee injury. Without
Garnett in the lineup, the Celtics come into tonight’s tilt having amazingly
played above the posted total 13 times in the most recent 15 outings. The Celtics just wrapped up a memorable
seven-game opening round series against a young and athletic Chicago offense which created countless
opportunities from the perimeter. But
tonight Boston opens of a series against an Orlando offense that runs through
the post which ultimately will SLOW the pace down which is one of the main
reasons why I am personally pounding the UNDER tonight. The bottom line is that Orlando has one of
the tallest and most challenging front-lines in the NBA as the threesome of
Dwight Howard, Hedo Turkoglu
and Rashard Lewis are all 6’10” or taller. What has made the Magic such a stellar squad
is the combination of “defense and rebounding” led by their superstar who is
averaging 13.9 rebounds per contest.
More important is the fact that Dwight Howard recently was awarded the
league’s “defensive player of the year” award which means he excels in a
critical area that ultimately wins playoff games. In game six this past Thursday where they
eliminated Philadelphia, that Orlando defense held the Sixers to just 89
points on their own homefloor which was exceptional
considering that Howard was serving a one-game suspension for elbowing. In that contest on Thursday, Magic reserve
center Marcin Gortat ended
up pulling down 15 REBOUNDS, so make no mistake this team is a terror down low
in the paint. With Kevin Garnett still
in street clothes, Boston
is going to lean heavily on big man Kendrik Perkins
to slow down Howard. If Perkins gets
into foul trouble, the Celtics do have 6’9” Brian Scalabrine
and 7’-0” Mikki Moore
on the bench along with Glen “Big Baby” Davis who has been forced into the
starting lineup. There are many
prognosticators that feel lower seeded Orlando is going to win this series
since Boston will be without Garnett and defensive specialist Leon Powe who also has suffered a season-ending injury. In my opinion Boston could actually have success in this
series with “single” man coverage on Dwight Howard, while NOT leaving long
range perimeter shots open. The Magic
love to dish the basketball out on the perimeter when Howard draws
double-coverage, which is why I feel the Celtics would
be better off cutting down Orlando’s
shot opportunities from up top. For
those of you who watched the just completed Orlando/Philadelphia series, the
Magic often were content by simply WALKING the basketball up the court which
means we are in store for a lot different series as opposed to the high scoring
Boston/Chicago seven-game set. For those
of you who may not have noticed, Orlando’s
offense has reached the 100-point plateau just ONCE in the past 13 outings
which is why the oddsmakers placed tonight’s opening
total in the 180’s. Prior to game seven
a few nights ago, Boston
head coach Doc Rivers publicly called on his Celtics to up their defensive
intensity. It is interesting to note
that Rivers used to coach the Magic and actually lives in Orlando during the offseason which means he
knows a thing or two regarding this particular opponent. It seems like an eternity since Orlando lost guard Jameer
Nelson to a season-ending injury just before he was to appear in the All-Star
game. Not only are the Magic without
Nelson at the guard slot, impressive rookie Courtney Lee is also OUT for
tonight after suffering a fractured sinus cavity courtesy of a flagrant elbow. J.J. Redick got a
ton of national attention during his collegiate years at Duke, but he has for
the most part has spent two professional campaigns sitting on the bench. Due to Lee’s injury, Redick
most likely will be put in Orlando’s
starting lineup which will have a negative effect on the offensive flow. As mentioned earlier in this analysis, Boston has played above the spot at a recent 13-2 clip
while Orlando
is 10-3 UNDER the past thirteen chances so something has to give. My database research indicates that Orlando is 16-5 UNDER the
past twenty-one times they have faced a solid offensive opponent who averages
at least 99 points per game. If Boston is going to be a
serious contender for another NBA title, they must find a way to once again
make DEFENSE their top priority
Opening baseball “5 UNIT” Best Bet gift 4/28 (Yankees 11-0 shutout
road victory)
As you will see below, more than two weeks ago Tuesday presented a
great opportunity for the Yankees “blue chip” pitching prospect (Phil Hughes)
to prove himself at the major league level as he is
finally healthy and confident.
TONIGHT’S SPECIAL “5 UNIT” REDZONE
BEST BET (Yankees +100 at Tigers in a 7:05 eastern start------Hughes versus
Jackson): It was almost exactly two
years ago when the Yankees top pitching prospect Phil Hughes was working on a
NO-HITTER in Texas as he entered the seventh inning, before exiting with a
hamstring injury that would literally end his 2007 campaign. Last year Hughes got off to a disastrous
start in the month of April posting a NINE ERA before going on the disabled
list once again with both a twisted ankle and more importantly a rib
fracture. It is worth noting that Hughes
was effective in a pair of starting assignments last September with a near TWO
ERA which tells me that there is still hope for this once untouchable
commodity. For those of you familiar
with the Yankees this is an organization that has not shown much patience with
young players who normally are dealt in exchange for a high priced and proven
veteran. But one of the main reasons why
I am so enthusiastic about the Yankees this evening is that in recent years
they actually REFUSED to package Hughes in several possible trades with other
organizations which gives you an idea just how much talent he has. The bottom line regarding Hughes he is
finally HEALTHY and has regained his confidence at the minor league level where
he posted a 3-0 record together with an ERA (1.86) that was extremely low. What caught my attention though was the fact
that he racked up 19 STRIKEOUT victims in 19 innings of work. In another statistic that shows his 2009
dominance against Triple-A hitters, Hughes had a 19-to-3 “strikeout to walk
ratio” which is spectacular. There may
be some Yankee fans that are down on Hughes, but this kid is only 22 years of
age and has a bright future ahead of him.
Hughes is coming to the Yankees at just the right time as the team is in
the midst of a 4-game losing streak. When
one considers that the Bronx Bombers did NOT lose 5 games in a row a year ago,
odds are very strong they are going to break into the win column on this
Tuesday. Even though we are less than
one month into the regular season, it has been a very tough road already for
the Yankees who had to do “damage control” on the very first day of spring
training with a hastily arranged press conference involving Alex Rodriguez who
had to explain his prior and admitted use of steroids. Shortly after that press conference it was
found that A-Rod needed hip surgery which currently has arguably baseball’s
best player on the disabled list. To
give you an idea just how much the Yankees miss Rodriguez, I will take you back
to last April when A-Rod launched an amazing 14 HOMERS along with 34 RBI. With this year’s Yankees struggling to
produce consistent run production, his presence has definitely been
missed. Of course the Yankees have had
to deal with other injury issues including outfielders Hideki Matsui and Xavier
Nady. And then
there is the strange case of starting pitcher Chien-Ming
Wang (34 ERA) who has lost enough velocity for the team to place him on the
disabled list. Until his injury on the
base paths a year ago, Wang had been one of baseball’s most consistent winners
and he is being replaced in the rotation tonight by none other than Phil
Hughes. Continuing with Yankee injury
news their promising set-up man Brian Bruney has just
gone down for the count which makes one wonder who is
going to be the bridge to closer Mariano Rivera. The obvious answer to me would be tomorrow
night’s scheduled starter Joba Chamberlain but for
now he remains in the rotation. If not
for Chamberlain’s desire to be a starter, odds are Phil Hughes would have
started this season in the starting rotation.
But in my opinion, it was probably a good thing for his confidence that
Hughes started 2009 in the minor leagues where he has always been
dominant. As mentioned earlier, the
Yankees lost their 4th consecutive game last night even though there were a few
bright spots as second baseman Robinson Cano extended his hitting streak to 14
in a row. Meanwhile A-Rod’s latest
replacement at third base Ramiro Pena had multiple hits. I have found out that the Yankees are
starting Melky Cabrera in centerfield this evening
ahead of Brett Gardner which opens a great opportunity for the veteran. In the 8 different starts that Cabrera has
made, his batting average (.297) has been excellent he may soon be wiggling his
way into a regular starting gig, especially with veteran Johnny Damon battling
a sore shoulder. We all know that the
Yankees spent an incredible amount of money on 3 marquee free-agents in the
offseason primarily to assure being competitive in the opening campaign of the
brand new Yankee Stadium. Due to
unexpected empty seats spurred by a poor economy, the Yankees just announced
today that they are actually REDUCING some of their ticket prices which has got to hurt the bottom line. Turning to the hosts of tonight’s game, I
will admit that Detroit
tied a season-high last night with a 3-game winning streak. But this is the same Tigers team that one
year ago was picked to run away with the American League Central and ended up
in LAST place. Tonight’s starter Edwin
Jackson got off to a solid beginning with his new Tigers teammates, but reality
set in less than a week ago when he surrendered SIX runs. But the key to this evening’s selection
surrounds Yankee “blue chip” prospect Phil Hughes who has a chance of lifting
an entire major league team who right now are having a tough time. During their long run of prosperity which has
led to non-stop National TV coverage, it has been near impossible to get a fair
price tag on the Yankees who will appear on ESPN tomorrow night. But on this Tuesday, we actually do get Joe Girardi’s troops at a near pick-em spot which to me is a
dream come true
79-80 PREMIUM WAGERS PAST SIXTY-EIGHT DAYS OF COVERAGE
--7/1 MARQUEE “4 Unit”
Best Bet Giants (+135) barely lose a 2-1 extra inning pitchers duel at
Cardinals
--6/25 through 6/30 no premium coverage (personal vacation)
--Wednesday (6/24) BEST
BET side Pirates (-130) WIN 10-6 at home versus geographic rival Cleveland
--Wednesday (6/24) BEST
BET total Yankees/Braves OVER (9) WINS in an ESPN2 televised 8-4 contest