5-Unit Best Bet event COVERS (Ohio State) last night.  Click on the “3 Day Triple” package for all remaining college FOOTBALL releases, along with hoops which are UNDEFEATED (3-0) so far in 2009

TUESDAY BEST BET DOUBLEHEADER (“SEVEN” combined units of BEST BET action)

--“4 UNIT” BEST BET MONSTER (Georgia at Georgia Tech) tips off at 7:05 eastern in the first college HOOPS top wager of 2009

--GMAC BOWL BEST BET SIDE (Ball State versus Tulsa) kicks off at 8:05 eastern on ESPN

 

STAGGERING 11-4 PAST TWO YEARS WITH RARE COLLEGE FOOTBALL “5 UNIT” BOMBSHELLS (including OHIO STATE last night)

 

ALL “5 UNIT” BEST BETS 14-6 since mid-September (9/13)

 

2-0 “BCS Bowl” BEST BETS so far (including Utah’s shocking OUTRIGHT upset of Alabama) 

 

2-1 premium service NFL Wildcard “sides” during the weekend (including Eagles yesterday)

 

5-UNIT BEST BET COVER LAST NIGHT IN THE FIESTA BOWL (24-21 final score)

TONIGHT'S SPECIAL "5 UNIT" REDZONE BEST BET (Ohio State +9 versus Texas in the Fiesta Bowl which kicks off at 8:15 eastern on FOX-TV):  One of the keys to this selection has to do with players actually RETURNING to Texas next season.  Star quarterback Colt McCoy has indicated that he will forgo NFL riches for another campaign which means odds are this team will be back the college football elite come next year at this time.  The real big news is that the leading wide receiver for the Longhorns Jordan Shipley HAS been granted an EXTRA YEAR of eligibility by the NCAA due to a handful of major injuries that he sustained early in his career.  On the flipside, tonight most like will be the FINAL time that Ohio State star running back Chris "Beanie" Wells (junior) will suit up for the Buckeyes as even his head coach admits that he will opt for the NFL early.  The bottom line is that we have a VETERAN-LADEN underdog that has a ton of players on both sides of the football who are seeking REDEMPTION in what for most will be their final collegiate appearance.  To put this in proper perspective, Ohio State entered this season with TWENTY projected starters that were either juniors and seniors.  These are the same host of players who for consecutive seasons were humiliated in the BCS Championship game which Ohio State lost by a combined 79-38 count.  I am fully aware that Texas came all of ONE SECOND away from participating in this year's BCS Championship and is seeking redemption, but one can also make an argument that they are in a "letdown" spot this evening.  We already have seen one squad that was on the fringe of making the BCS title game (Alabama) lose OUTRIGHT against an opponent from the Mountain West Conference.  Not only are the many Ohio State seniors who have been humiliated in consecutive postseason appearances wanting to go out on a positive note, they are also representing an entire conference that desperately needs something good to happen with the entire nation watching.  It was exactly one week ago when one of the Big-10 Conference Bowl participants (Northwestern) extended a member of the mighty Big-12 draw (Missouri) into OVERTIME, so anything is possible.  I am fully aware that the postseason so far (1-5 SU/2-4 ATS) has been a disaster for Big-10 Conference participants, including Penn State's high profile Rose Bowl appearance.  For those of you who watched the Rose Bowl, you know that Penn State despite a disastrous second quarter, nearly rallied in the second-half to COVER a spread that is very similar to the one we have this evening.  To give you an idea the vital IMPORTANCE of tonight's game for all Big-10 schools, the conference had too FEW "bowl eligible" teams to fit an invitation to the Motor City Bowl which was one of the early contests, so this league desperately needs something to go right and tonight marks the FINAL shot of this particular postseason for that to happen.  Not only has Ohio State been manhandled in each of the last pair of BCS Title games, they also got squashed early in the season by a 35-3 count in a visit to USC out on the west coast.  In that particular contest, then-Buckeye quarterback Todd Boeckman threw 2 interceptions and was SACKED 4 different times.  Since that week-three disaster, Ohio State has turned to freshman Terrelle Pryor as their starting quarterback.  To make a long story short, Pryor has been tagged as a "once in a lifetime" athlete and hs this week been compared to former Texas signal caller Vince Young who a few years ago led the Longhorns to a national title.  What the "2007 high school player of the year" has done is give the Buckeyes normally conservative offense an extra dimension.  Since becoming the starter, Pryor has passed for more than 1,200 yards (12 touchdowns and only 4 interceptions).  But the big news is that this kid has also RUN for 553 yards and crossed the goaline 3 times in rushing mode.  In the critical category of SPECIAL TEAMS, Ohio State has an outstanding punter A.J. Trapasso who not only is an All-League performer, he has the knack of punting the football INSIDE the opponents 20-yard line.  Of course the Buckeyes on defense have been as always outstanding as they have permitted teams to average only 13 games against them.  Ohio State linebacker James Laurinaitis (size and speed) arguably is one of the nation's best defenders.  I want to take all of you back to last year's Fiesta Bowl where underdog West Virginia who had just lost their head coach made a STATEMENT against an Big 12 opponent (Oklahoma) and pulled off the OUTRIGHT upset.  It was two years ago when the Fiesta Bowl staged one of the greatest college football games of all-time when Boise State won OUTRIGHT as an underog by a ONE point count in overtime.  So far in this year's BCS games we have yet to have a contest go right down to the wire, but that could easily happen tonight.  Prior to the 2005 season, these two teams had NEVER met on the same field but have since SPLIT a pair of encounters with the "rubber match" being tonight.  I did some research and found that the only time Texas appeared in the Fiesta Bowl was way back in 1996 when they LOST to an opponent (Penn State) from the Big-10 Conference.  My research also indicates that Ohio State has NEVER lost when playing a postseason game in the state of Arizona!  As mentioned earlier in this analysis, tonight's underdog is loaded with VETERAN players (juniors and seniors) and had 9 returning OFFENSIVE starters this campaign along with 9 returnees on the DEFENSE.  Quite simply this is one of the most talented 9-point underdogs that you will ever find

 

Entering Saturday 13-5 with all “5 UNIT” Best Bets since 9/13 including WINNERS each of the last pair of Sunday NFL regular season cards.  All college football “5 Unit” events were a staggering 10-3 the past two years.  But due to a 100-yard interception return late in the final quarter, disaster struck early Saturday as Buffalo failed to cover the International Bowl in a 38-20 contest where 15-thousand Buffalo fans made the trip north of the border and the underdog Bulls at one point were leading OUTRIGHT by a 10-point margin

 

TODAY'S SPECIAL "5 UNIT" REDZONE BEST BET (Buffalo +7 versus Connecticut in the International Bowl which kicks off at 12 noon eastern on ESPN2):  The location of today's game is inside Toronto's Skydome which just happened to play host to a Buffalo Bills NFL regular season game last month.  Thus, it is not all that far of a drive for fans of Buffalo's college football team to attend this contest and they will have more fan support in the stands.  This is my personal "2008 College Football Game of the Year" which involves a very unusual situation.  Regular clients who were with me one year ago for the 2007 version know that I went out on the limb with a horrible Florida International squad that ended up snapping a disastrous 23-game losing streak.  One of the reasons why I personally pounded Florida International on that day was because they were hosting the FINAL EVER game inside historic Orange Bowl Stadium which has since met with the wrecking ball.  The bottom line is that today marks the FIRST TIME EVER that Buffalo's college football team is participating in a postseason contest.  The Buffalo Bulls actually were invited to the 1958 Tangerine Bowl exactly FIFTY YEARS ago, but the team voted to unanimously TURN DOWN that invitation because of a pair of African-American teammates would NOT be able to participate in the then segregated deep south.  In the 50-years that have passed since Buffalo received that postseason invitation, opportunities for African-Americans to become a head coach at the Division I-A level have been very rare.  I am sure most of you are aware that current Buffalo head coach Turner Gill interviewed for the vacant Auburn position and was turned down in favor of a coach who has a lifetime losing record.  The Southeastern Conference did hire one black head coach in its long history, but Sylvester Croom was given his walking papers by Mississippi State a few weeks ago.  Even though there are just a handful of African-American head coaches in college football right now, it is worth noting that both who have so far participated in this postseason (Miami-Florida, Houston) successfully COVERED the spread in what is yet another ironic twist.  Even though Nick Saban got top honors with the help of an outstanding recruiting class at Alabama, in my opinion BUFFALO'S Turner Gill hands down is this year's "college coach of the year".  In the 7-years prior to Gill's arrival on campus, Buffalo was arguably the worst program in America as they tallied an overall record (10-69) that was a disaster.  Not only has Gill turned around the Bulls fortunes immediately, he just led them to a Mid-American Conference CHAMPIONSHIP win against what was then an UNDEFEATED opponent (Ball State).  I am fully aware that teams from the Mid-American Conference have struggled so far in the 2008 postseason, but that has only spiked the price tag for a Connecticut team that went a very poor 2-5 down the stretch.  Connecticut quarterback Tyler Lorenzen has went 1-3 after missing a month with a broken foot and has never quite been the same.  Buffalo has a FOUR-YEAR STARTER behind center in Drew Willy who arguably produced the most dramatic moment of the entire college football season completing a hail mary pass as TIME EXPIRED in a victory against Temple back in September.  One year ago Willy set single-season SCHOOL RECORDS in completions (258) and highest completion percentage (68.4).  Willy has not missed a beat this campaign throwing 36 TD passes in his last 625 attempts.  Buffalo's James Starks a year ago became the school's FIRST EVER 1,000 yard rusher.  Starks has not missed a beat this campaign gaining 793 yards on the ground in the last SIX games combined.  Buffalo returned 4 of 5 starters to what is a VETERAN offensive line that has the ability to win some wars in the pits.  The Bulls also have an opportunistic defense which forced FOUR turnovers in the Mid-American Championship game against a Ball State contingent that up to that point has turned the ball over just FOUR times in the entire season.  Thw following may come as a shock to most of you, but Buffalo has a #12 national ranking and led the Mid-American Conference draw with a PLUS-12 TURNOVER RATIO.  Today is a major REVENGE spot for Buffalo who has lost 4 consecutive battles with Connecticut by an overall score (10-129) that is embarassing.  Odds are they can get revenge because Connecticut has gone only 1-5 this season against opponents with a winning record.  This marks the third top-rated "5 UNIT" Best Bet I have placed on the Buffalo Bulls this season and so far they have done very well.  Back on election night I mentioned that this team was getting their first-ever National TV home game on the same evening that one of the nation's most respected political prognosticators (Tim Russert) was looking down from above.  Russert who was the long time host of Meet the Press suffered a fatal heart attack during the summer.  On his signature political talk show, Russert would always end up rooting for his HOMETOWN of Buffalo in the sporting world.  He never got to see the NFL Bills win the Super Bowl, but the college football Bulls are playing their own Super Bowl today in the FIRST-EVER Bowl appearance.  This game is being broadcast on ESPN2, as the larger ESPN network chose instead to telecast college basketball with marquee programs involved.  The ESPN slight seems "par for the course" as a good portion of the country will not get an opportunity to see the greatest story of this college football season.  We have seen several teams like Vanderbilt and Rice finally win a postseason game for the first time since the 1950's.  For Buffalo, it has been exactly FIFTY YEARS between Bowl invitations and the first-time they have ever actually taken the field in the postseason

 

It was a Sugar Bowl BEST BET gift Saturday night as Utah (+6) not only covered the FIRST HALF line, they won outright by a 21-10 score.  All clients were informed that Alabama has dominated opponents in the first-half thid season by a staggering combined 244-64 count. Thus, it was imperative for underdog Utah to come out of the gate with a strong first-half and the Utes certainly delivered

 

20-15 all premium HOOPS in December (all college basketball Best Bets 5-2 so far)

 

FOOTBALL BEST BETS 10-9 PAST 15 DAYS (including last Sunday’s NFL winning “5-Unit” event)

--Best Bet PARLAY sweep in MNF finale (Packers-and-Under)

--Christmas Eve Notre Dame (-2’) wins the Hawaii Bowl by a whopping 28-POINT margin

--last Saturday Bowl System Total of the Year Miami/California UNDER (51) WINS by double-digits in the Emerald Bowl (41 combined points scored)

--last Sunday 5-UNIT event Redskins/49ers OVER (37) WINS with ease in game with 51 combined points scored (13-5 with “5 Unit” bombshells since mid-September)

--last Sunday Bills (+6) fail to cover in a 13-0 home loss against the Patriots

--last Monday Alamo Bowl Northwestern (+13) COVERS in 30-23 OT tussle (OVERTIME predicted in the analysis segment)

--last Tuesday Humanitarian Bowl Maryland/Nevada OVER (60) WINS with ease in 42-35 shootout

--Wednesday Armed Forces Bowl Air Force/Houston OVER (66) barely fails in 34-28 shootout

--Wednesday Music City Bowl Vanderbilt (+6) OUTRIGHT versus Boston College 16-14 (personal MONEY LINE wager +205 also cashes the ticket)

--Thursday Rose Bowl Penn State (+10) fails to cover by FOUR points in a 38-24 setback at USC

--Thursday Outback Bowl Iowa/South Carolina OVER (43) fails to cover by TWO points in a 31-10 final verdict

--Friday Sugar Bowl Utah (+6) in the FIRST HALF which they won outright 21-10 against Alabama

--Friday Liberty Bowl East Carolina (-3) fades in the second half and loses 25-19 straight up against Kentucky

--Saturday International Bowl both Buffalo (+7) and UNDER (51’) fail in a 38-20 shootout essentially decided on a late Connecticut 100 yard interception return

--Saturday NFL Wildcard Falcons/Cardinals UNDER (51) fails in a contest with 54 combined points scored

--Sunday Dolphins (+3’) failed to cover in a 27-9 setback versus Ravens in the NFL Wildcard playoffs

--Monday Fiesta Bowl Ohio State (+9) COVERS in a 24-21 battle versus Texas

 

College FOOTBALL postseason Best Bets so far (8-6)

 

10-8 NATIONAL-TV BEST BETS THIS PAST 15 DAYS including a Christmas gift in the NBA as the highly anticipated “Celtics/Lakers” clash easily staying UNDER the total (201) in a contest that produced just 175 combined points.  The Lakers goal in the offseason was improving their DEFENSE and they ended up snapping Boston’s massive 19-game winning streak

 

College FOOTBALL postseason 18-16 so far (15-8 BOWL BEST BETS dating back to last year)

 

Last Wednesday Bowl BEST BET underdog Vanderbilt OUTRIGHT upset in their first postseason straight-up win since 1955 (personal MONEY LINE +205 ticket also cashes)

TODAY'S "3 UNIT" REDZONE BEST BET BOWL SIDE (Vanderbilt +6 versus Boston College in the Music City Bowl which kicks off at 3:35 eastern on ESPN):  This is one of those wagers where I feel the oddsmakers have made a rather loud statement simply by the way they chose to price a particular contest.  The bottom line is that under normal circumstances, the Eagles should be laying double digits, but this contest opened at just 4 points, before the line actually dropped.  As expected, the line this afternoon offshore has suddenly soared in the direction of the favorite, which gives us excellent VALUE with Vanderbilt who is in a very unique situation.  It is stunning that Boston College was not asked to lay more points considering that they just made an appearance in the Atlantic Coast Conference Championship game.  In addition, the Eagles enter this afternoon's contest riding a 21-game NON-Conference winning streak dating back to 2004.  Boston College also has won a nation leading NINE consecutive postseason Bowl outings and today they face an opponent that ended the regular season on a disastrous 1-6 slide.  Not only did Vanderbilt crumble down the stretch, their offense has put up more than 14 points on the scoreboard just ONCE dating back to September!  One would think that Commodores attack is once again going to have serious difficulty scoring points against a wicked Boston College secondary that has 26 INTERCEPTIONS that leads the entire nation.  Once again one has to wonder why Boston College is not laying more points.  One of the reasons may be because this team came into the season with major question marks, including at quarterback where Matt Ryan had to be replaced.  Ryan produced more than 76-PERCENT of the Eagles offense a year ago and of course he just won a "rookie of the year award" in the NFL.  Not only did Boston College lose their offensive catalyst, they also lost All-America safety Jamie Silva who led the team a year ago in both tackles (125) and interceptions (8).  Even though Vanderbilt has had their share of offensive problems, they get a chance this afternoon to go up against a very young and inexperienced secondary.  With such a low posted total in this contest, one has to wonder if Boston College will be able to generate enough points to cover the spread.  To make a long story short, this team has actually LOST some of its offensive toughness since long time head coach Tom O'Brien is now directing the North Carolina State program.  O'Brien has been one of the nation's best "spread" coaches, but he no longer can work his postseason magic with Boston College who is 0-2 ATS the past two years in the postseason, which is on the heels of seeing this school COVER 9 consecutive Bowl outings.  Earlier in this Bowl campaign we saw Notre Dame put an end to a 9-game postseason losing skid, and this afternoon we just may see Boston College's nation-best postseason run come to an end.  That is why I am personally making a pair of wagers on Vanderbilt including on the MONEY LINE (+205).  We saw just last night Rice finally put an end to a severe drought as they won their first Bowl game since the 1950's.  To make a long story short, Vanderbilt (6-6-6) can put to an end 25 YEARS of consecutive losing seasons, with an outright upset.  I found out this afternoon that Vandy is considering FIVE different QUARTERBACK options designed to keep the opposing defense guessing.  Even though Vandy struggled down the stretch, they got off to a 5-0 start for the first time since 1943 which is almost the last time they won a Bowl game.  Here is a 73-PERCENT SYSTEM (40-15 past decade in Division I-A) which goes AGAINST neutral field non-conference favorites like Boston College with an INEXPERIENCED starting quarterback.  Due to injury, Boston College is starting REDSHIRT FRESHMAN Dominique Davis who has made only TWO starts, so that system does apply.  One has to wonder the incentive for Boston College this afternoon as they were just one game away from a BCS-sanctioned Bowl.  The situation is completely different for Vanderbilt who essentially is playing a HOME game as the Music City Bowl is being played in Nashville  

 

Another Bowl BEST BET triumph last Tuesday as Maryland/Nevada sailed OVER (60) in a 42-35 shootout

TODAY'S "3 UNIT" REDZONE BEST BET BOWL TOTAL (Maryland versus Nevada OVER 60 in the Humanitarian Bowl which kicks off at 4:35 eastern on ESPN):  This is one of the postseason Bowl games where weather can be a huge factor, but the conditions today on the "blue turf" of Boise State's homefield in the state of Idaho are GOOD with relatively light winds and temperatures in the low 40's.  For those of you who are familiar with the Pacific Northwest, you know that it already has been a very rough winter with extreme cold and a ton of snow, so the quality weather today out west with NO snow in the forecast is a big bonus.  I fully realize that today's total has risen significantly from an opening figure of 56' points, but when you look at the spots for both of the Tuesday evening contests which are well above the 70 mark, we actually have some VALUE with this particular spot and I am taking full advantage.  One of the keys to this total has to do with what happened to Nevada's offense exactly one year ago at this time when they were SHUTOUT in the New Mexico Bowl.  That Bowl game marked the first time that Nevada was shutdown in 329 GAMES which was an NCAA record.  For the second straight postseason, Maryland is traveling out west and they lost a low scoring 21-14 contest out in San Francisco a year ago.  With one year to think about those poor performances, I just have a feeling that both offense will explode this time around.  Another key to this total surrounds what was supposed to be the Humanitarian Bowl matchup as the committee was trying to talk a pair of UNDEFEATED teams a month ago (Boise State, Ball State) to participate in this contest.  Of course that never came to fruition and the Bowl committee had to settle for a pair of "7-5" entrants who have had their share of defensive struggles.  Maryland's came into the season with a basically "untested" defensive line, while the stop-unit also was forced to replace All-America linebacker Erin Henderson.  The Terrapins also lost 3 impact starters from last year's defensive secondary, so they certainly needed plenty of OFFENSIVE production to make this Bowl.  That Terps offense returned all 4 wideouts from a year ago including standout Darrius Heyward-Bay who is one of the nation's most EXPLOSIVE receivers.  Bay did not play in Maryland's regular season finale, but from what I have been able to find out he has sufficiently healed enough from a leg injury and will be able to take the field.  Maryland came into the season not having a proven rushing attack, but with all 4 offensive linemen returning, the Terps did produce a #1 team All-ACC Conference performer in tailback Da'Rel Scott.  I will admit that Scott ran for just 19 yards in the regular season finale, but he has had alot of time to shake the performance off.  Nevada just happens to have the nation's #2 ranked rushing attack that has cranked out an average of 291 yards per game on the ground.  Quarterback Colin Kaepernick not only RAN for more than 1,000 yards on the ground this season, he passed for more than 2,500 yards and produced a grand total of 34 TOUCHDOWNS.  Nevada's "pistol attack" produced on average around 500 yards per game this season, but they also averaged 2 TURNOVERS per contest which just may turn into "defensive points" for Maryland.  Getting back to Nevada, they actually played on the Boise State "blue turf" last month in what turned into a 41-34 shootout, so they have FAMILIARITY with the surroundings of this Western Athletic Conference facility.  The bottom line is that both teams returned all 4 starters from last year's OFFENSIVE LINE which sets up a very high scoring affair outdoors in the state of Idaho where the weather conditions are about as good as one can expect this time of the year

 

BOWL BEST BET triumph last Monday when Northwestern (+13) COVERED wire-to-wire in the Alamo Bowl which as you will see in the analysis below went into OVERTIME as predicted

TONIGHT'S "3 UNIT" REDZONE BEST BET (Northwestern +13 against Missouri in the Alamo Bowl which kicks off at 8:05 eastern on ESPN):  One of the keys to this selection surrounds last year's postseason game involving Missouri when the Tigers pounded Arkansas 38-7 in the New Year's Day Cotton Bowl.  To make a long story short, Missouri had plenty of MOTIVATION a year ago when they were unfairly blocked from participating in a BBS-sanctioned Bowl.  Chase Daniel and company let out their frustrations on an Arkansas contingent that just lost the services of their head coach who is now working wonders at Mississippi.  The postseason situation for Mizzoo is completely different this campaign as this "minor" Bowl appearance is a huge LETDOWN for a squad that began the season with huge expectations.  For a second consecutive campaign, Missouri failed miserably in the Big 12 Championship game, so they certainly deserve to be in a pre-New Year's contest.  My database research indicates that schools from the Big 12 Conference who participate in this contest almost always are suffering from an emotional letdown as the conference is a horrible 4-10 ATS in this event.  Of course since the Big 12 Conference repeatedly has been featured in primetime games down the stretch due to BCS ramifications, Missouri has been installed as a prohibitive favorite which may be a big mistake.  I have found out that the team with MOTIVATION in this contest is actually Northwestern (9-3) who is coming off their best season since way back in 1996.  I have found out that dating all the way back to the preseason, Northwestern set a goal of WINNING A BOWL GAME.  With an upset tonight, not only would the Wildcats achieve that goal, they would record the second-10 win season in school HISTORY.  I will admit that for the most part this has been a down year in the Big 10 Conference, but the fact of the matter is that tonight we have an underdog that is loaded with EXPERIENCE as Northwestern has a grand total of 22 SENIORS on their roster.  Those seniors came to the Wildcats program to play for the late head coach Randy Walker who tragically died in 2006 after suffering a heart attack.  Taking over for Walker was former Northwestern linebacker Pat Fitzgerald who just happened to play for the school in a postseason contest and knows what it is like to suffer a setback.  To put tonight's situation in proper perspective, Northwestern is 0-5 in postseason Bowl games dating all the way back to 1949.  It has been nearly 60 YEARS since the Wildcats actually won a Bowl game straight up and coach Fitzgerald is highly motivated to get the job done.  Fitzgerald actually pulled off a mini-coup in the offseason when he landed the services of veteran defensive coordinator Mike Hankwitz who has brought aggressiveness and sophistication to the Wildcats defense which has been steamrolled for years.  Northwestern returned all 4 of their starting defensive linemen from a year ago, including Corey Wooten who has 9 SACKS and 15 tackles for loss.  I have found out that Northwestern defensive end Vince Brown who is second on the team in total SACKS, will return for the first time since suffering a knee injury back in the beginning of November.  Also returning is Northwestern star running back Tyrell Sutton (776 yards rushing, 30 receptions) who has not played since suffering a fractured wrist back in late October.  Not only does Northwestern get back the services of their top offensive player, quarterback C.J. Bacher who has been battling hamstring problems has now been declared HEALTHY.  My research indicates that we could be looking at OVERTIME tonight in the Alamo Bowl.  Going into this season, Northwestern was 8-1 in overtime games since the extra session was introduced in 1996.  Their win total tied none other than Missouri for most overtime triumphs at the Division I-A level.  If this contest follows the script, Northwestern will cover in an OVERTIME thriller

 

5-Unit NFL events COVER each of the last pair of regular season Sunday cards

 

16-9 all college BASKETBALL so far (5-2 BEST BETS)

 

Opening NBA 5-Unit bombshell COVERS by 14’ point margin (12/17) on ESPN

 

18-16 with college FOOTBALL postseason releases so far including Division I-AA playoffs.  Staggering 7-2 BOWL BEST BETS one year ago (click on “3 Week TV Blitz Package” for all Bowl wagers now through the BCS Championship along with the NFL, NBA and college hoops which is 16-9 out of the gate including 5 out of 7 in the BEST BET category)

 

14-6 TEAR WITH “5 UNIT” BOMBSHELLS (including a 27-24 shootout at San Francisco in an NFL regular season finale)

TODAY'S SPECIAL "5 UNIT" REDZONE BEST BET TOTAL (Redskins at 49ers OVER 37 in a 4:15 eastern kickoff):  Regular clients will remember the last time Washington played on the ROAD in a wild affair that featured a combined 27 POINTS scored in the FIRST HALF alone, but a gut wrenching second stanza ended up holding that contest below the posted spot.  Even though head coach Jim Zorn is a former NFL quarterback who has worked with many signal callers as a coordinator after retirement, his Redskins enter today's finale having played below the total in a mind boggling TEN consecutive games.  I want to take all of you back to the NFL regular season opener when the Redskins were still learning a new offensive system and were held to just 7 points on the scoreboard in a setback at Giants Stadium.  But in the next four weeks, that same Washington offense put up 23+ points per contest as it appeared they would be heading to the playoffs.  The bottom line is that the Redskins attack has been held to 13-or-fewer points SIX different times down the stretch, which gives up enormous VALUE with today's severely deflated total.  Last Sunday Washington as a team gained confidence with a rare straight-up victory as the defense handcuffed a Philadelphia contingent that was attempting to lock up a postseason berth.  Going into the offseason, I feel it is imperative that the Redskins OFFENSE gains some confidence in what essentially is a meaningless trip across the country for them.  Even though Clinton Portis has been among the league leaders in rushing for most of the campaign, he has gained only 201 yards on the ground in the past 4 games combined.  From what I have been able to find out, Portis is at his HEALTHIEST point in three weeks and will be a vital part of today's offensive attack.  The more yards Portis gains, the less pressure that will be put on the shoulders of quarterback Jason Campbell who has been criticized in recent weeks.  While Washington has an OFFENSIVE-oriented head coach, San Francisco an OFFENSIVE coordinator (Mike Martz) who most likely will be working his final game with the 49ers, due to a difference in philosiphy with the head coach.  Of course Martz was the one who directed for years the "great show on turf" attack in St. Louis and loves to constantly install passing plays.  But ever since the "old school" Mike Singletary took over as head coach, the 49ers have emphasized the RUN, constantly putting the ball in the hands of Frank Gore who is 22 yards shy of becoming the first 49er EVER with 1,000 yards rushing in 3 consecutive seasons.  The interesting thing about the San Francisco offense is that ever since Shaun Hill took over as the starting quarterback, the team has constantly been able to move the ball down the field, only to get bogged down in the opponent's red zone.  With Washington's defense in a classic "letdown" spot after exerting alot of energy in last week's home finale against a divisional opponent, I just have a feeling San Francisco will be more effective in the red zone.  Last week the 49ers trailed 16-3 in the fourth quarter at St. Louis, before rallying for a pair of late TOUCHDOWNS which proved they have a "quick strike" capability.  One would have thought that last Sunday would have produced a very high scoring affair since the 49ers were playing indoors and that coordinator Martz was returning to St. Louis where he designed so many high-octane offensive juggernauts.  Even though San Francisco has now played below the spot in 4 consecutive contests, it is interesting to note that they have played in some very HIGH SCORING affairs against opponents from the NFC East.  The last time San Francisco faced a team from that highly competitive division, they lost a 35-22 decision at Dallas.  The Niners also lost a home game earlier this campaign against Philadelphia who nailed the defense to the tune of 40 POINTS.  Getting back to the San Francisco offense, wide receiver Isaac Bruce has just moved into second-place on the NFL all-time list for receiving yards with 14,936 and I just have a feeling he is going to make a run at the 15-thousand plateau before this game is completed.  My database research indicates that ROAD teams like Washington off 4 consecutive low scoring affairs that stayed below the spot, have actually played OVER the total (35' to 42 points) at a 63-PERCENT clip (105-62) dating all the way back to 1983.  But the big news is that San Francisco long term has gone 11-2 OVER/HOME when the posted total has been between 35'-and-38 points!  Once again today will be the final game for San Francisco offensive coordinator Mike Martz who got a chance to work for only a brief time in a city where the infamous "west coast offense" was created.  With this being "throw back uniform" day in San Francisco, the Niners will attempt to revisit their high scoring ways of the 1980's when Bill Walsh revolutionized the league

 

OPENING BOWL BEST BET MONSTER (12/27) WINS (low scoring Emerald Bowl with 41 combined points scored)

TONIGHT'S "4 UNIT" COLLEGE FOOTBALL REDZONE BEST BET TOTAL (Miami at California UNDER 51 in an 8:05 eastern Emerald Bowl kickoff on ESPN):  One of the many keys to this total has to do with the SUSPENSION of Miami's starting quarterback.  The Hurricanes reserve signal caller is NOT 100% healthy which is an issue I will deal with later in this analysis segment.  When one thinks of California, it normally has to do with head coach Jeff Tedford who has a reputation of being an offensive genius.  But before this season even started Tedford relinquished his play calling duties, and also changed the Golden Bears DEFENSE from a "4-3" to a "3-4" allignment.  The reason for the switch had to due with excellent depth at linebacker headed by All Pac-10 senior Zack Follett.  The following may come as a shock to many of you but California actually has a TOP-15 national ranking in both SACKS and turnover margin.  As you watch this evening's game on ESPN, you will notice that California's defense actually looks like those physical stop-units from the Southeastern Conference but with extra SPEED attached.  The Golden Bears stop-unit actually reminds me of Boise State as a major portion of the betting public was not aware that statistically they were one of the better DEFENSES in the land.  That Boise State/TCU clash turned out to be extremely low scoring and stayed way UNDER the total.  Just like Boise State, we have a school participating tonight (California) that is much more known for offensive prowess, so I am going to take full advantage of this inflated total.  California actually entered this season with a myriad of offensive question marks, including at the quarterback position where two-year starter Nate Longshore proved to be extremely inconsistant.  I can confirm that Longshore will start behind center tonight, but the main catalyst of the offense is at RUNNING BACK where Jahvid Best led the entire Pac-10 Conference in total yards gained on the ground.  It comes as no shock that California called a substantial amount of running plays this season because the explosive Best had the opportunity to run behind All-America center Alex Mack who at one point was considering an early jump to the NFL.  To make a long story short, California has a completely new cast at the wide receiver position which is extremely young.  Coming into the season, Cal's roster featured a grand total of just 12 career receptions, with 10 of those catches belonging to ONE player.  Another key to this total has to do with the SUSPENSION of Miami starting quarterback Robert Mavre (academics).  For those of you who may not be aware, Mavre broke Tim Tebow's state high school passing records and is an excellent prospect.  Miami's reserve quarterback who actually split time under center is the same Jacory Harris who suffered an injury to his THROWING SHOULDER in the regular season finale.  Of course with an extended period of time to heal that shoulder, Harris is feeling better but the bottom line is that he is still feeling pain when attempting to throw the DEEP pass which most likely will NOT be in Miami's plans this evening.  I will admit that Harris completed 60% of his pass attempts and amassed 1,000 aerial yards, but that has only helped inflate tonight's total.  Not only is Miami "green" at the quarterback slot, they have a new cast of wide receivers.  Among the Hurricanes wideouts, only ONE caught more than 11 passes one year ago.  Miami's lead rusher is Graig Cooper (778 total ground yards) who did NOT run for more than 52 yards in each of the most recent 3 outings.  I will admit that the Miami defense hit a wall in the final two weeks of the regular season when they surrendered a grand total of 79 points in a pair of road losses, but that is not all that shocking considering that young teams tend to get a bit tired last in the regular campaign.  That Miami defense which is littered with speed and athleticism has had plenty of time to re-charge the collective engine so to speak.  Miami's best players are on DEFENSE led by linebacker Sean Spence who already has garnered a "conference rookie of the year" honor.  Miami also has defensive end Marcus Robinson (9 tackles for loss) and defensive tackle Marcus Forston (3 sacks in final 3 regular season contests) who are both budding stars.  My database research indicates that Miami is 22-9 UNDER long term when the posted total is between 49'-and-56 points.  California is 18-5 UNDER after a game where 24+ first-half points were scored.  But the big news is a massive 81-PERCENT SYSTEM (35-8 past decade in NON-Conference settings).  This 81% system takes teams like Miami off consecutive ugly conference losses where they allowed 31+ points, UNDER the total.  I mentioned earlier that California shockingly has one of the nation's better defense which just happens to be ranked #2 in the entire nation with 23 combined interceptions.  I want to remind all of you about one of California's "step up" games this season in what turned out to be a very low scoring 17-3 final road verdict at Southern California.  Due to that 81% angle which indicates we have an inflated spot, this in my mind is the Bowl System Total of the Year