MARQUEE BASKETBALL BEST BETS (4-Units or higher) UNDEFEATED for the month of March at 5-0-1

 

SPECIAL 5-UNIT ESPN-TV EVENT COVERS MONDAY

The fourth college basketball “5 Unit” bombshell of the season cashes Monday in a very unique situation (60-53 final score)

 

TONIGHT’S SPECIAL “5 UNIT” NATIONAL-TV COLLEGE REDZONE BEST BET (William+Mary +9 versus Old Dominion in the Colonial Conference Championship game tipping off at 7:05 eastern on ESPN):  The bottom line is that this pick involves an almost unheard of handicapping situation which is why I am pounding underdog William+Mary both plus the generous points and on the “money line” (+350).  It is amazing that William+Mary is one of only 5 “original” teams at the Division I level that has NEVER made the NCAA Tournament and of course with an upset win this evening the Tribe would finally be eligible for the Big Dance.  Back in 2008 William+Mary actually made it all the way to the Colonial Conference Championship game but this time around they are on an “even” playing field with their opponent.  Two years ago William+Mary was playing their “fourth game in four days” and simply ran out of gas in the Championship tilt but tonight courtesy of an opening round “bye” the Tribe are having to play on their third game of the postseason tournament.  It is understandable that the oddsmakers have posted Old Dominion as a prohibitive favorite tonight since they are the #1 seed and traditionally favorites have done very well in the championship tilt.  But the fact of the matter is that Old Dominion in a semifinal game yesterday was extended into OVERTIME in a contest where they had to exert a lot of energy by coming back from a massive double-digit deficit in the second half.  Due to that both emotional and long game yesterday, one can argue that William+Mary has a decided advantage tonight as they facing a mentally exhausted opponent.  For those of you who may not be aware William+Mary for the first time in SCHOOL HISTORY has “double digit” wins this season on the ROAD including a pair of shocking upsets at Wake Forest and Maryland where the oddsmakers were giving them 12’+ points to work with.  William+Mary comes into this championship game feeling very good about themselves after pulling out a TWO point thriller yesterday even though the squad tallied only 16 points in the entire second-half.  To make a long story short William+Mary plays together as “a team” as they are both selfless and trust each other.  In my opinion it is “destiny” time for William+Mary as they not only won a two-point thriller in the semifinals yesterday, there opponent Northeastern actually missed SEVEN game tying or game winning chance on their final possession.  Even though Old Dominion is a #1 seed in this tournament my research indicates that they are only 9-19 ATS long term in “neutral court” setups such as this.  Here is a 70-PERCENT SYSTEM (61-27 past twelve years) which plays ON underdogs like William+Mary who have played below the posted total by more than 6 points in 3 consecutive games, against an opponent who in a seven-game stretch have played above the total by 42+ combined points.  That system favors William+Mary who is a stunning 12-3 ATS this season when cast as an underdog.  Due to the reasons stated at the top of this analysis segment I actually expect William+Mary to pull off the outright upset and advance to the NCAA Tournament for the first time in school history

 

*****”4-1” Basketball Best Bet weekend where all hardwood premium releases produced a stellar “10-3” mark*****

 

“8-5” all college postseason tournament wagers so far

 

*****MONTHLY Package extends through NCAA Championship and more (4/5)*****

 

 

8-0 SATURDAY PREMIUM SWEEP

 

--“4 Unit” NATIONAL-TV ESPN monster Louisville (+1) COVERS in a 78-68 rout of #1 ranked Syracuse (final game at Freedom Hall)

--“4 Unit” TOURNAMENT monster Loyola-Marymount (-1’) COVERS in a 84-76 West Coast Conference triumph versus San Francisco

--“4 Unit” TOTALS monster Washington State/Oregon OVER (134) WINS in a 74-66 Pac-Ten contest

--CBS-TV Total West Virginia/Villanova UNDER (152) WINS with ease 68-66 despite OVERTIME

--Big South Conference Championship Winthrop (+9’) OUTRIGHT upset at Coastal Carolina on ESPN2

--Ohio Valley Conference Championship Murray State (-4) COVERS in a 62-51 win against Morehead State on ESPN2

--SEC Network Alabama (-5’) COVERS in a 73-61 home rout of Auburn

--NBA Pacers (+12’) COVER in a 113-105 late night shootout at Suns

 

9-5-1 MARCH COLLEGE BEST BETS

 

--3/8 Special “5 Unit” NATIONAL-TV ESPN bombshell William+Mary (+9) COVERS in a 60-53 Colonial Championship tussle

--3/8 ESPN Total William+Mary/Old Dominion OVER (117) fails in a game with just 113 combined points scored

--3/7 CBS Total Florida/Kentucky OVER (141) misses by ONE point in a 74-66 verdict

--3/7 Tournament Boston University (-2’) COVERS in a 70-63 road triumph from the America-East Conference

--3/6 “4 Unit” NATIONAL-TV ESPN monster Louisville (+1) COVERS in a 78-68 rout of #1 ranked Syracuse (final game at Freedom Hall)

--3/6 “4 Unit” TOURNAMENT monster Loyola-Marymount (-1’) COVERS in a 84-76 West Coast Conference triumph versus San Francisco

--3/6 “4 Unit” TOTALS monster Washington State/Oregon OVER (134) WINS in a 74-66 Pac-Ten contest

--3/5 Georgia Southern (+1’) with six SENIORS on roster suffer humiliating double-digit Southern Conference opening round tournament loss

--3/4 “4 Unit” marquee Dayton (+4) PUSHES in 60-56 road contest where Dayton held a halftime lead at Richmond

--3/4 WAC Total New Mexico State/Nevada OVER (163) WINS with ease in 100-92 shootout

--3/3 Alabama-Birmingham (-3) loses outright in home finale as “4 year” losing streak against rival Memphis continued

--3/2 College Upset of Year Colorado (+5) OUTRIGHT at Nebraska snapping 36-game conference road losing skid

--3/2 Opening TOURNAMENT Best Bet Murray State (-20’) COVERS with ease in a 84-51 opening round Ohio Valley Conference rout

--3/1 ESPN Total Georgetown/West Virginia UNDER (136’) fails in a 81-68 contest

--3/1 ESPN Total Oklahoma/Texas OVER (145) WINS in a 87-76 shootout

 

 

8-5 COLLEGE POSTSEASON TOURNAMENT WAGERS

 

--3/8 BEST BET William+Mary (+9) COVERS in a 60-53 Colonial Conference championship tilt

--3/8 BEST BET William+Mary/Old Dominion OVER (117) fails in a game with just 113 combined points scored

--3/8 Oral Roberts (+3) fails to cover by ONE points in a 69-65 contest from the Summit League

--3/7 BEST BET Boston University (-2’) COVERS in a 70-63 road triumph from the America-East conference

--3/7 Loyola-Marymount (+12) fails to cover in a 77-62 West Coast Conference setback versus Gonzaga

--3/6 BEST BET Loyola-Marymount (-1’) COVERS with ease in a 84-76 West Coast Conference quarterfinal

--3/6 Big South Championship Winthrop (+9’) OUTRIGHT road upset

--3/6 Ohio Valley Championship Murray State (-4) COVERS in a 62-51 triumph

--3/5 Georgia Southern (+1’) with six SENIORS on roster suffer humiliating double-digit Southern Conference opening round loss

--3/4 Monmouth (+13’) COVERS in a 84-75 road contest which they actually led at halftime (Northeast Conference quarterfinal)

--3/3 Lafayette (-7’) COVERS in a 73-65 home triumph from the opening round of the Patriot League tournament

--3/2 Tennessee Tech/Austin Peay OVER (150) fails in a Ohio Valley tournament opening round game with 133 combined points scored

--3/2 BEST BET Murray State (-20’) COVERS in an opening round 84-51 home blowout from the Ohio Valley tournament

 

*****MONTHLY Package extends through NCAA Championship and more (4/5)*****

 

59-55 all PREMIUM sides+totals in month of February

13-6 all college basketball BEST BETS in month of January

77-60 college regular season FOOTBALL in 2009

19-11 college football postseason BOWL releases in 2009/2010

146-128 all college BASKETBALL in 2008/2009

 

 

ALL “BEST BETS” 156-146 SINCE MONTH OF AUGUST

 

ALL PREMIUM COLLEGE BASKETBALL 18-13-1 IN MARCH

 

 

SUNDAY BEST BETS

The Florida/Kentucky CBS total came ONE point away from cashing the ticket, however Boston University successfully COVERED the spread in a postseason tournament Best Bet.  Sunday’s premium report was ruined by a are home failure by the Chicago Blackhawks (5-4 final score)

 

TODAY’S SPECIAL “5 UNIT” REDZONE HOCKEY BEST BET (Blackhawks -170 at home versus Red Wings in a 12:35 eastern faceoff broadcast nationally on NBC):  It was exactly one week ago when the USA/Canada Olympic hockey Gold Medal showcase drew a bigger United States audience than any non-Olympic TV sports event outside of the NFL and college football’s BCS Title game.  Today marks the first network telecast for the NHL since NBC drew that monster rating a week ago.  I find it interesting that the league has decided to “showcase” the Chicago Blackhawks the next pair of Sunday’s on NBC’s “game of the week” which is very telling considering that both Pittsburgh and Washington have the two most marketable players (Crosby, Ovechkin) who are the two best scorers.  The bottom line is that the NHL and it’s network TV partner feel that Chicago has suddenly become the most exciting team in the league to watch as this franchise after a decade of futility suddenly is back among the NHL elite.  Today will mark the 82nd consecutive HOME SELLOUT for the Blackhawks who have established record local TV ratings and literally tripling sales of team merchandise.  Chicago who has not hoisted the Stanley Cup in nearly 50 years made a shocking playoff run to the Western Conference finals a year ago and the team is currently among the “top four” in NHL total points, goals and goals against.  The Blackhawks’ speed and ability to control the puck in the offensive zone are the keys to this young group which is now considered among the most talented and entertaining teams to watch.  A grand total of SIX different Blackhawks made it to the Olympic Gold Medal game and Jonathan Toews (21) who is the league’s youngest team captain was named the best forward of the entire Olympic tournament.  Fellow third-year forward Patrick Kane had a pair of assists to the USA in the gold-medal game and a pair of goals in the semifinal round.  What excites me most about the Blackhawks is that they lead the league in FEWEST shots-on-goal allowed helping goaltenders Cristobal Huet (2.29 GAA) and Antii Niemi (2.16) to have a Top-10 NHL ranking.  Chicago’s resurgence began when they hired Hall-of-Famer and former Detroit head coach Scotty Bowman as senior advisor of operations.  Bowman actually coached 9 different Stanley Cup winning teams and knows what he is doing.  The Blackhawks also have brought back some of their former stars like Bobby Hull to the United Center which is playing to 107-PERCENT of capacity averaging more than 21-thousand fans per game.  NHL diehards know that the mere fact that Detroit has been cast as a prohibitive underdog is amazing when you consider that this team which is based in what is known as “hockey town” has won 8 consecutive divisional titles and has been one of the league’s best squads.  To make a long story shot Detroit this campaign is just battling to become eligible for the postseason as they are for the moment barely clinging to a #8 and final playoff seed.  The situation is completely different for Chicago (43-16-5) who today is seeking to sweep a 4-game season series from their rivals.  Detroit just happens to be a disastrous 1-10 this year when revenging a “close” loss (1 or less goals) against an opponent.  Chicago just happens to be a mind boggling 14-1/HOME this year against poor defensive opponents and “17-3” the past three campaigns at the United Center when off consecutive contests where the offense tallied at least 4 goals.  In NBC’s first hockey telecast since the Olympics they have chosen Chicago as the “showcase” squad which speaks volumes

 

SATURDAY MARQUEE BEST BET NATIONAL-TV WIN

8-0 premium sweep Saturday highlighted by a 78-68 ESPN televised win by Louisville as they close Freedom Hall by dominating the nation’s #1 ranked squad

 

TODAY’S “4 UNIT” REDZONE BEST BET (Louisville +1 at home versus Syracuse in a 2:05 eastern tipoff broadcast on ESPN):  Considering that today is the final game at Louisville’s Freedom Hall which has hosted Louisville basketball since the mid-1950’s one could argue that ESPN should have had this clash as the “hyped” primetime telecast.  Louisville has won roughly 80-PERCENT of their games at Freedom Hall which has given them annually an excellent homecourt advantage as there is literally not a bad seat in the house.  But more important than this being the Freedom Hall swansong is the fact that Louisville can essentially assure themselves of an NCAA at-large tournament bid this afternoon in a contest that is critical for a squad that has been the model of inconsistency.  Louisville’s problems began way back in the summer when head coach Rick Pitino went public regarding a multi-million dollar extortion attempt tied to an admitted sexual encounter.  Despite the Louisville administration sticking by his side there were constant rumors when the season began that Pitino would eventually bolt the program for a return to the NBA.  In the “non” conference portion of the schedule Louisville as a team suffered a pair of shocking losses to the likes of Charlotte and Western Carolina.  Then there was the early season 1-4 slide in Big East Conference play which put this program squarely on the NCAA bubble.  Even though Pitino has admitted to his team’s severe defensive deficiencies like any marquee head coach he has his Cardinals playing their best down the stretch even though Tuesday’s road loss at Marquette was a bit surprising.  The opening line for today’s ESPN telecast opened at most offshore locales at a virtual “pick em” price which in itself was a shock considering that Syracuse is currently ranked #1 in the country and is attempting to become the first team from the Big East to go undefeated on the ROAD in 11 years.  Another reason why this line was so strange is the fact that Syracuse today is REVENGING a stunning home loss against Louisville just last month so in my mind the oddsmakers have made a loud statement.  For those of you who may not be aware Syracuse was actually “unranked” when the initial preseason national poll was released and they were picked to finish around the #6 mark in the Big East standings so this has been a stunning campaign for the Orange who are now defying the odds.  To put this situation in proper perspective Syracuse is the first team in 20 years to go from unranked in the preseason all the way up to a #1 national ranking.  It was exactly one week ago on a Saturday afternoon when we saw the #1 ranked (Kansas) and #2 ranked squads (Kentucky) suffer upset losses on the ROAD and one week later that is exactly where we find Syracuse. It is ironic that last Saturday in an ESPN marquee primetime telecast Syracuse was the only high-ranked squad to basically survive as they blew out Villanova even though it was a home game.  Despite the fact that head coach Jim Boeheim has done an outstanding job I personally have a problem with a “sheltered” schedule that has seen Syracuse have the opportunity to have their FANS in attendance on foreign hardwood.  Basically the Orange played “inside their home state” for the initial TWO MONTHS of the season including “preseason” tournament games played at New York’s Madison Square Garden.  Due to geographic advantages a very young Syracuse squad was given time to gel WITHOUT having to take a long plane ride.  The longest trip made by the Orange this season was to Chicago where a horrible Depaul squad came a mere three-pointer away from pulling off an outright upset. For those who may not remember 12 of the initial 16 Syracuse games this season were played on their own home court.  The bottom line is that due to the relative small dimensions of Freedom Hall this is one of the very few games this season where Syracuse will NOT have their own fans cheering from the stands.  In this Syracuse/Louisville series the Cardinals are actually on a current 6-1 ATS roll and I see that trend continuing this afternoon

 

SATURDAY MARQUEE BEST BET POSTSEASON TOURNAMENT WIN

Loyola-Marymount continued one of the nation’s biggest turnarounds with an 84-76 West Coast Conference Saturday victory

 

TONIGHT’S “4 UNIT” REDZONE BEST BET TOURNAMENT BEST BET (Loyola-Marymount -1’ versus San Francisco in a 9:05 eastern tipoff from the West Coast Conference Tournament that can be viewed on-line at ESPN360.com):  Even though San Francisco (4) has a higher seed than Loyola-Marymount (5) it is interesting to see that the lower seed has actually been cast as the favorite in the postseason tournament contest being played in Las Vegas.  Last night Loyola-Marymount (-9) failed to cover an inflated spread in part because they were facing a geographic rival.  Another reason why they won outright but failed to cover the spread last night was because Pepperdine entered the contest (0-9-1 ATS) on a severe spread slide so the “law of averages” kicked in.  Obviously this evening we get one of college basketball’s very quiet success stories at a substantially cheaper price tag and I am taking full advantage.  Loyola Marymount has the most wins (17) since way back in the 1995/96 campaign and during the regular season was an excellent investment (10-5 ATS) on the road.  To put this in proper perspective Marymount’s “13-game improvement” from last season is the second biggest turnaround in the ENTIRE NATION as the Lions have taken advantage of imported players from other programs.  Drew Viney was just elected to the “all conference first team” and he originally signed with Oregon after a stellar high school career.  Marymount down the stretch got back the services of injured import Larry Davis who actually spent time at both North Carolina State and Seton Hall where he gained valuable in-game experience.  Both Drew Viney and Vernon Teel became just the 11th duo from Loyola-Marymount to be honored on the “all west coast conference first team”.  For those who may not be aware Marymont this season stunned Notre Dame outright on the road and they also defeated nationally ranked Gonzaga.  As for San Francisco they come in with the higher seeding (7-7 league record) only because they defeated Marymount twice during the regular season which sets up a DOUBLE-REVENGE situation tonight.  San Francisco actually started this season with a poor 3-9 record with one of the triumphs coming against a Division II opponent.  Here is a whopping “24-5” SYSTEM (83% last twelve years) which plays AGAINST “neutral court” teams like San Francisco (win percentage 40-to-49 on season) after beating the spread by 36+ totals points in a five-game span.  As for Loyola Marymount they are 8-2 ATS this season when playing on “short rest”.  It was 20 years ago when Loyola-Marymount made an emotional deep run in the NCAA Tournament following the shocking death of star Hank Gathers in a West Coast Conference postseason tournament tilt

 

SATURDAY MARQUEE BEST BET TOTALS WIN

Oregon closes out an 83-year run on their home floor with a high scoring 74-66 contest

 

TONIGHT’S “4 UNIT” REDZONE BEST BET TOTAL (Washington State at Oregon OVER 134 in a 8:05 eastern tipoff):  This is the second Best Bet involving the closure of a long-time facility as tonight marks the final regular season game for Oregon at McArthur court as the school is ending an 83-YEAR run at that facility.  Even though it has been a disastrous season for Oregon I am expecting them to close this building with a wild and “wide open” affair just like the thrilling 91-89 DOUBLE-OVERTIME shootout against Washington State played way back on New Years Eve.  Most of you reading this analysis are familiar with long time Washington State head coach Tony Bennett who in the offseason bolted the program for more money and is now employed by Virginia in the eastern time zone.  Bennett for years executed the slow-down and “half court” style of offense which is why most Washington State totals were way down in the 120’s and at times even lower.  Even though the Cougars are bring headed by OFFENSIVE oriented head coach Ken Bone who made a name for himself by being part of the wide open Big Sky Conference, this team has actually played below the spot EIGHT times in the most recent ten outings.  I want all of you to be aware that in the past five games both Washington State (55 ppg) and Oregon (62 ppg) have had severe offensive problems.  But be aware that the posted total in the initial Cougars/Ducks season encounter was substantially higher (145’) than it is this evening where we have excellent “value”.  One of the keys to this selection is that both teams have star offensive players that are breaking out of shooting slumps down the stretch.  Tonight is the final home game for Oregon’s Tajuan Porter who just happens to be the school’s all-time “three point” leader nailing 336 shots from behind the arc.  In a recent stretch Porter went 6 entire games posting just “single digits” but he exploded for 29 POINTS (7 of 9 from behind the arc) in a recent road triumph at UCLA.  Early this season Klay Thompson was actually LEADING THE NATION in scoring but he has had a severe dropoff for Washington State in the past three games (4-for-35 from the field).  The bottom line is that this game has a pair of “undervalued” sharpshooters seeking to end the regular campaign on the uptick.  In the coaching career of current Washington State mentor Ken Bone his teams have played OVER the spot at approaching a 70-PERCENT slip (28-14) when the posted total is in the 130’s which is the case tonight

 

THURSDAY MARQUEE BEST BET

In a game where underdog Dayton led outright most of the way including at halftime, the Flyers held close enough (60-56 final score) for a PUSH

 

TONIGHT’S “4 UNIT” REDZONE BEST BET (Dayton +4 at Richmond in a 7:05 eastern tipoff broadcast nationally on the CBS College Sports Network):  We have a very dangerous underdog this evening as Dayton has a positive REBOUND margin (+6) while Richmond (-4.9) is not a solid squad down low on the boards.  The bottom line is that tonight Dayton who is currently on as 1-5 skid when playing on the highway has a chance to impress the NCAA Tournament Committee.  Basically the underdog Flyers need to win this evening for any conceivable chance at an “at large”  but more important is the fact that a setback which cause them to win the entire Atlantic 10 postseason tournament.  When considering how deep the Atlantic 10 draw is this season, it is almost imperative that Dayton pull off the upset.  What I like most about Dayton is there EXPERIENCE as the projected starting lineup features 4 different SENIORS including guard Marcus Johnson who shot a blistering 60% from the floor in the month of February.  Another Dayton veteran Chris Wright also had an incredible month of February where he averaged 16’ points and 7 rebounds per contest while shooting 55% from the floor.  The youngest member of Dayton’s starting lineup is 6’8” Chris Wright (junior) who is considered one of the best players in the entire Atlantic 10 Conference.  I am fully aware Richmond has an outstanding HOME record (13-1) but the Spiders are in a classic “emotional letdown” position as they just lost in DOUBLE-OVERTIME on Sunday.  Prior to that contest Richmond actually cracked the national Top-25 for just the second time since 1958 so this school is in rarified air so to speak.  As mentioned earlier Dayton has struggled on the road but it is worth considering that 4 of those setbacks were by “4 or less” points.   Dayton lost once on the road by ONE point in a game where they made only 3-of-22 “three point” shot attempts.  Another close but no cigar road setback for Dayton was a DOUBLE-OVERTIME affair where they missed a pair of “1 and 1” chances in the final minute of regulation.  Another setback (2 point margin) saw the Flyers turn the ball over twice in the final 70-seconds and in an inspiring effort at Temple they missed 15 shots around the rim.  Now you know why I am so enthusiastic about TAKING the points in this game which is much more critical to the visitor since Richmond (22-7) has essentially already wrapped up an at-large NCAA bid and a “bye” in the upcoming Atlantic 10 Tournament.   Be advised that Richmond is on a current 8-1 “spread” tear which has helped drive up the price tag from an opening figure of 3 points

 

THURSDAY BEST BET TOTAL

Nevada continued to be an automatic OVER play at home in the month of March as they won a 100-92 shootout versus New Mexico State

 

TONIGHT’S “3 UNIT” LATE NIGHT REDZONE BEST BET COLLEGE TOTAL (New Mexico State at Nevada OVER 163 in a 10:05 eastern tipoff):  These two teams back in January played well below a posted total of 162' points in a contest where only a combined 144 points were put on the scoreboard.  The fact that the oddsmakers did not “adjust” tonight’s spot in the downward direction immediately caught my attention.  The national media has latched on to the New Mexico Lobos who have a lofty Top-25 ranking and are riding an enormous thirteen game winning streak.  But the New Mexico State Aggies (19-9, 11-3 Western Athletic Conference) are also having a solid campaign with a high-octane lineup that features a pair of “1,000 career” point scorers who operate out of the guard position.  One of those Aggie guards Jahmar Young is averaging 21 points per contest while Jonathan Gibson is putting in on average 18 per outing.  What really caught my attention is that all FIVE of the New Mexico State starters cracked “double figures” in their initial season attempt against the Nevada defense.  As for the Wolfpack they have a pair of underclassmen (Armon Johnson, Luke Babbitt) who in a recent contest were viewed by a handful of NBA scouts.  The hot gun in Nevada’s lineup right now is senior guard Brandon Fields who has poured in a combined 43 POINTS in the last pair of games.  Nevada’s most recent outing was at Hawaii where the team had to endure a “tsunami warning” so I feel back on home soil the offense will a lot more effective tonight with full focus on basketball.  My database research indicates that Nevada is a stunning 7-0 OVER/HOME the past couple of years in the month of MARCH where the offense has averaged a healthy 78 points per game.  Tonight that offense goes against a weak New Mexico State contingent which on average has permitted 82 points per attempt on the road.  The Aggies may be suspect on defense but in the past five games the offense (81 ppg) has made up for that shortfall

 

“COLLEGE UPSET OF THE YEAR” TUESDAY (WINS OUTRIGHT)

The opening MARQUEE Best Bet of March saw Colorado as expected putting an end to a massive 36-game conference road losing streak (81-68 OUTRIGHT triumph)

 

TONIGHT’S “4 UNIT” REDZONE BEST BET (Colorado +5 at Nebraska in a 8:05 eastern tipoff that is on-line at ESPN360.com):  The following may come as a shock but Colorado has actually lost 36 consecutive conference road games and tonight is their last shot in this particular campaign to finally put that streak of futility to an end against an opponent who has a horrible “2-12” Big 12 conference record.  Nebraska is in a classic “emotional letdown” spot after pulling off a DOUBLE OVERTIME victory on Saturday where they rallied from a massive 14-point deficit to pull off an upset of Texas Tech.  Normally it is dangerous to bet against a team like Nebraska on “senior night” but according to my database research the Cornhuskers are a very poor 6-17 ATS when coming off a “close” win of 6-or-less points which was the case back on Saturday.  Considering that Colorado has lost 36 consecutive road games in league play one would have thought the oddsmakers would have cast them as a substantial underdog tonight so the fact that the spread is only 5 points speaks volumes.  What I love about Colorado as an underdog is that they have set a SCHOOL RECORD this season (.773) as the free-throw line.  For those of you who have followed the Buffalos they have won of the country’s more talented freshmen in guard Alec Burks who is 36 points away from setting a school rookie record in total points scored (445) in a season.  Colorado’s other starting guard Corey Higgins is off a massive 33-POINT effort in a Saturday outright triumph and in the past eleven games he has hit at a vicious clip (.873) from the charity stripe.  Higgins also tops the entire Big 12 Conference in a key defensive category has he is averaging more than 2 STEALS per contest.  Higgins is one of only 13 players in the entire country who leads his team in 5 different statistical categories.  Despite their losing ways on the highway Colorado enters tonight’s game with a decent overall record (13-15) and if they happen to win both of their remaining regular season contests the Buffaloes would be eligible for the postseason NIT Tournament which would give their young players added experience.  During the head coaching reign of Jeff Bzdelik the Buffaloes have suffered 27 different “single digit” setbacks including a game AT #1 ranked Kansas when they climbed out of a massive 21-point hole and lost by only a FIVE point margin.  Going back to the database here is a an UNDEFEATED angle that sees Colorado 7-0 ATS/ROAD the past three years when off an outright conference victory.  To recap Colorado can snap a 36-game conference road losing streak tonight against an opponent who has a horrible Big 12 Conference record (2-12) and is coming off a draining “double overtime” affair.  Due to the unusual factors this large personal investment comes with the label of “college upset of the year” where I am also adding a small additional “money line” wager (+175) and you are invited to join me

 

OPENING COLLEGE POSTSEASON TOURNAMENT BEST BET (TUESDAY WIN)

The opening major release of the collegiate postseason last week went against a squad who SUSPENDED 4 players and was operating with just a 9-man roster (84-51 blowout WIN by Murray State)

 

TONIGHT’S “3 UNIT” REDZONE POSTSEASON TOURNAMENT BEST BET (Murray State -20’ at home versus Tennessee State in a 8:00 eastern tipoff from the opening round of the Ohio Valley Conference Tournament):  For those not familiar with Murray State they have absolutely crushed conference competition this season (17-1) en route to a #1 seed and a bonus HOME game tonight.  This just happens to be the final season where top seeds from the Ohio Valley Conference will be forced to play an opening round game as their will be early “byes” similar to what other leagues do across the country.  This also is the final season where there will be “on campus” games during the Ohio Valley postseason tournament so I am going to take advantage of Murray State’s current 18-game HOME WINNING STREAK which is one of the longer runs of prosperity across the country.  I am aware that Tennessee State finished sizzling hot down the regular season stretch (5-1) but it should be noted that they started the season against league competition (1-11) getting squashed.  It was actually very strange to see Tennessee State finish so strongly when you consider that 4 different players last month received season-ending SUSPENSIONS due to poor off the court behavior.  Tennessee State may have rallied down the stretch in order to qualify for the postseason but the fact of the matter is that they are operating with only a NINE man roster which is severely depleted.    Getting back to Murray State they have won more regular season titles (21) than any other squad in Ohio Valley history and the Racers currently have a lofty #4 national ranking in the latest “mid major” national poll.  I will wrap this up with an UNDEFEATED long term angle which sees Tennessee State 0-6 ATS the past two years against excellent offensive opponents who on average hit at least 50% of their shot attempts from the field

 

OLYMPIC BEST BET SPECIAL WINS

Sunday 2/28 featured an OLYMPIC moment as UNDER the total came through in the highly anticipated USA/Canada Gold Medal clash which ended 3-2 in overtime. 

 

TODAY'S SPECIAL HOCKEY "3 UNIT" REDZONE BEST BET TOTAL (USA/Canada Gold Medal Olympic clash UNDER 5' goals in a 3:15 eastern faceoff broadcast nationally on NBC):  We actually have a very low total considering that the USA/Canada hockey clash from one week ago was a high scoring shootout won by the Americans. Since last Sunday the USA squad scored 6 goals in a single period while Canada combined on 15 goals in a pair of triumphs.  But despite recent high scoring games the bottom line is that DEFENSE and in this case "hot goaltenders" is what wins marquee high profile matchups no matter what the sport.  It seems like an eternity since the NFL Super Bowl was played featuring a pair of quarterbacks who statistically were at the top of the league which helped create an "inflated" posted total.  In a nutshell New Orleans pulled off the upset and became a legitimate Super Bowl contender due to the hiring of DEFENSIVE coordinator Greg Williams whose unit constantly created turnovers.  I am using this same defensive philosiphy handicapping today's highly publicized Olympic Hockey Gold Medal clash.  In my opinion the "side" is difficult to predict was with a triumph this afternoon the host country of Canada can set a Winter Olympic record for most GOLD medals won.  On the other side of the spectrum it has been both "30" and "50" years ago when the USA pulled off stunning Gold Medal hockey upsets so anything can happen.  Of course Olympic hockey squads are now made up of essentially NHL professionals and the league with a positive result this afternoon would have an opportunity to MARKET a player actually born on American soil as opposed to Sidney Crosby and Alex Ovechkin who currently get the bulk of national press.  Both last Sunday and in the quarterfinal round the Canadiens saw how the American squad can get off to a strong start and put the opposition on its heels so to speak.  The bottom line is that Canada who is attempting to defend a game that was created on their own soil will be much more PHYSICAL that a week ago.  The physical nature of hockey along with the paramount nature of this contest makes me think the TOTAL (Under) is the better percentage wagers as opposed to the side 

 

7-4 SUNDAY BEST BETS PAST SIX WEEKS

 

--3/7 NHL Special Blackhawks (-170) lose at home 5-4 in NBC telecast

--3/7 CBS total Florida/Kentucky OVER (141) misses by ONE point in a 74-66 contest

--3/7 College Tournament Boston University (-2’) COVERS in 70-63 road triumph

--2/28 Indiana (+6’) fails to cover in a 73-57 pounding at Iowa

--2/28 OLYMPIC HOCKEY (USA/Canada UNDER 5’ goals) WINS in a 3-2 overtime thriller

--2/21 Ohio State/Michigan OVER (135) WINS in a CBS broadcast with 141 combined points scored

--2/14 Marist (+20) COVERS in a 70-51 contest at Niagra

--2/7 Saints/Colts UNDER (57) WINS in the Super Bowl with 48 combined points scored

--2/7 Canisius (+6) COVERS in tight 73-72 road game at Saint Peters

--1/31 Pro Bowl OVER (57’) WINS in a 41-34 NFL All-Star shootout

--“22-13” all Sunday NFL regular season Best Bets

 

 

 

87-88 premium college basketball past fifty-eight days

59-55 all PREMIUM sides+totals in month of February

 

 

MARQUEE BEST BET “SIDES+TOTALS” (4 Units or higher) 12-8 PAST TWENTY-NINE DAYS

 

--SUPER SUNDAY “5 Unit” Super Bowl Total UNDER (57) WINS with ease as Saints/Colts combine for 48 points

--2/11 NHL special “4 Unit” monster Senators (+110) WINS in 6-5 home triumph versus Capitals who recently had 14-0 run snapped

--2/13 College “4 Unit” Total Missouri/Baylor UNDER (145) WINS with ease in low scoring game with just 126 combined points scored

--2/17 ESPN “5 Unit” Total Suns/Mavericks UNDER (215’) WINS in contest with just 204 combined points scored

--2/18 “4 Unit” Sun Belt Game of the Year Florida International (+4) COVERS in 77-74 contest against rival Florida Atlantic

--2/19 “4 Unit” Total William+Mary/Iona OVER (124) barely misses in ESPNU telecast with 122 combined points scored

--2/20 ESPN2 “5 Unit” bracketbuster Siena (+8) fails to cover in 70-53 contest where they led outright at halftime on the road

--2/20 ESPN “4 Unit” primetime Washington (-11’) COVERS with ease in 97-68 home rout of UCLA

--2/24 “4 Unit” monster Wichita State (-3) fails to cover in a 75-73 setback at Bradley

--2/25 ESPN2 NON-CONFERENCE GAME OF THE YEAR Tulsa (+18’) COVERS in 70-52 contest at Duke where the heavy underdog trailed by just FOUR points at halftime

--2/26 “4 Unit” NBA monster Timberwolves (+9’) fail to cover a 109-92 road setback

--2/27 ESPN “5 Unit” event Villanova (+5’) fails to cover in a 95-77 setback at Syracuse

--2/27 “4 Unit” monster Georgia Tech (-7’) fails to cover a 73-68 home contest (despite a 12 point lead with just 22-seconds remaining)

--2/28 “4 Unit” Big 10 Game of the Year Indiana (+6’) failed to cover a 73-57 road contest at Iowa

--3/2 “4 Unit” College UPSET of the Year Colorado (+5) wins OUTRIGHT by a 81-68 count as they finally snapped a massive 36-game road losing streak

--3/4 “4 Unit” monster Dayton (+4) PUSHES in 60-56 road contest they led outright at halftime 

--3/6 “4 Unit” NATIONAL-TV ESPN monster Louisville (+1) COVERS in a 78-68 rout of #1 ranked Syracuse (final game at Freedom Hall)

--3/6 “4 Unit” TOURNAMENT monster Loyola-Marymount (-1’) COVERS in a 84-76 West Coast Conference triumph versus San Francisco

--3/6 “4 Unit” TOTALS monster Washington State/Oregon OVER (134) WINS in a 74-66 Pac-Ten contest

--3/7 “5 Unit” NBC/NHL special Blackhawks (-170) fail at home 5-4

--3/8 “5 Unit” ESPN bombshell William+Mary (+9) COVERS in a 60-53 Colonial Conference championship special

 

 

SATURDAY “5 UNIT” BEST BET (2/20)

Siena fails to cover in 17 point setback of a game they actually led outright at halftime

 

TODAY’S SPECIAL “5 UNIT” REDZONE BEST BET (Siena +8 at Butler in a 11:05 AM eastern tipoff broadcast nationally on ESPN2):  The oddsmakers had no choice but to “inflate” this price tag since Butler (#18 national ranking) has won 16 games in a row and has been almost unbeatable on their own home floor (27-2) the past couple of seasons.  The bottom line is that out of all the “bracketbuster” contests being played throughout the day, Siena has the most to gain since they have yet to defeat a “top fifty” opponent.  My research indicates that in the past sixteen years only EIGHT small conference teams gained an “at large” NCAA tournament invitation without a victory against a “top fifty” opponent on their resume.  For those of you who may not be familiar with “bracketbusters” they are made-for-TV events which gives “mid major” programs a chance at national exposure and to bolster their postseason credentials.  It has been another stellar campaign for Siena (22-5, 15-1 conference) and this school long term is on a sensational “48-10” overall tear where they have ripped off 34 consecutive triumphs on their home hardwood.  The problem is Siena is on the road this morning at one of the toughest “mid major” venues in the land so they have an opportunity to prove themselves in adverse conditions in this particular ESPN2 telecast.  The Saints who have dominated the Metro-Atlantic Conference have actually picked up triumphs in the NCAA Tournament in consecutive seasons, but their ticket to this year’s “big dance” is in jeopardy.  This past Friday Siena who was riding a 15-game winning streak finally had a large viewing audience on ESPN2 and they promptly lost on the road at Niagra which seriously hurt their chances for a possible “at large” NCAA berth, especially considering that a year ago the tournament committee picked only 4 squads from small conferences as “at large” entrants.  Siena has now had 20+-wins in 4 consecutive seasons but the Saints during the “non” league portion of their schedule failed to pull off an upset of a high profile opponent (St. Johns, Georgia Tech, Northern Iowa) so their will be some on the NCAA tournament committee questioning just how legitimate the Saints current 22-5 record really is.  With teams from 3 different “mid major” conferences not participating in this year’s Bracketbuster games (Atlantic 10, Mountain West, Conference-USA) the best opportunity for a “signature” victory lies with Siena who would garner attention against an opponent who has a very high current RPI ranking (20).  The RPI is a mathematical measurement of a team’s strength which the NCAA uses to help them come up with “at large” berths for the Big Dance.  Recent history shows us that Siena has done very well in these late season Bracketbuster games as one year ago they won in front of the ESPN2 cameras which ultimately helped them land a #9 NCAA Tournament seed.  Two years ago Siena on the road won OURIGHT in a huge Bracketbuster upset so anything is possible late this morning.  For those of you who will be watching on ESPN2 keep an eye on Siena forward Alex Franklin who is the only player in his conference to have “top five” rankings in scoring, rebounding and field goal percentage.  Another forward Ryan Rossiter has already set a single-season Saints school record with 16 different “double doubles” in both scoring and rebounding.  Siena also has an exceptional guard Ronald Moore who just happens to lead the entire country in the critical ASSISTS category.  A statistic that has grabbed my attention is the fact that Siena has attempted twice as many free-throws as their opposition which means they have the ability to pick up crucial “bonus” points today from the charity stripe.  Siena just happens to be ranked #2 in the entire country for FEWEST fouls committed (13.9) per game.  Siena’s defense has averaged a hefty 8.8 STEALS per game and have scored a grand total of 514 points this season off of those forced turnovers which grades out to 18 per game.  Turning to the INJURY report Butler forward/guard Willie Veasley (knee) is listed as doubtful which will hurt the Bulldogs who are a poor 2-9 ATS the past couple of campaigns after consecutive “double digit” outright victories.  With their current head coach Siena has covered at a solid 9-2 ATS clip on the ROAD when off consecutive contests that also were on the highway.  To wrap this up Siena is in an almost “must win” setup early today if they have any chance at an NCAA tournament “at large” berth

 

SPECIAL ESPN-TV “5 UNIT” BEST BET EVENT WINS ON 2/17

In an NBA telecast on 2/17 just 204 combined points scored

 

TONIGHT’S SPECIAL “5 UNIT” REDZONE BEST BET NATIONAL-TV TOTAL (Suns at Mavericks UNDER 215’ in a 9:05 eastern tipoff broadcast nationally on ESPN):  Of course the big news these days in the NBA is the upcoming trade deadline and Dallas certainly was active in that department during the All-Star break pulling off a “seven player” deal with Washington highlighted by Caron Butler going from a Wizards to a Mavericks uniform.  Butler had a fan during his days in the Eastern Conference as a guy named LeBron James called him quote “tough” and that is exactly the player that Dallas needs.  What I found interesting about the just completed Mavericks/Wizards trade was that Dallas owner Mark Cuban was NOT going to do the deal unless former North Carolina center and SEVEN-FOOTER Brendan Haywood was involved.  I can see why Cuban demanded Haywood’s services since he is an athletic player who has both SHOT BLOCKING and other DEFENSIVE abilities.  For the entire season to date Haywood is averaging 6.3 rebounds and 1’ blocked shots per contest and he is a monster presence down low in the paint for opposing players who like to drive the lane.  It was obvious to Cuban that his Mavericks had to “toughen up” because in the final three games before the All-Star Break the defense was torched (127,117,117) three consecutive times.  What made that defensive slump so shocking is that current Dallas headman Rick Carlisle has always been known as a “defensive oriented” head coach.  It came as no personal shock that Dallas last night in their initial post All-Star break outing played UNDER the total in a 99-86 setback.  What was a bit surprising though was the Mavericks offense which scored a grand total of only ELEVEN points in the entire third quarter.  With 3 new members of the team coming via trade it is going to take some time for Dallas to gain offensive chemistry and last night after halftime the entire team put only 32 points on the scoreboard while regular center Erick Dampier (dislocated finger) exited early.  Another stunning result from last night was the fact that the Phoenix DEFENSE held Memphis to a season-LOW shooting percentage (35.6%) enroute to a 109-95 road triumph.  The Suns defense allowed only 32 points in the paint which was eye opening simply because the Grizzlies came into the contest averaging a NBA-Best mark (51.6) in average points produced in the paint.  Of course one does not think of Phoenix as a defensive squad since for the past eight years they have sat atop the NBA in average offensive production and this year (110 ppg) is no different as the Suns are nailing 41% of their “three point” long range opportunities.  When one looks closely at the Phoenix offense they thrive on the various pick-and-rolls created by both Steve Nash and Amare Stoudemire.  The problem with Stoudemire is that any day now will be his last in a Suns uniform as trade rumors persist.  In last night’s road triumph Phoenix another Phoenix All-Star Steve Nash took a grand total of only FOUR shots from the field due to an ailing back that started to bother him in pre-game warmups.  It was a very busy All-Star break for Nash who participated in the Olympic opening ceremonies in his native country.  Nash also was part of the West squad in the All-Star game and just the day prior won the skills competition.  To make a long story short Nash has had extremely little rest and his BACK issues are bound to have a negative affect on the entire Suns offense.  It is interesting to note that Phoenix is actually an outstanding “20-6” this season when their defense holds the opposition to BELOW 100 points and that is what they did last night.  Ever since taking the head coaching reigns in Phoenix Alvin Gentry according to his star center has actually spent some time teaching DEFENSE which is something Mike D’Antoni virtually ignored during his tenure in the Valley of the Sun.  The Suns come into tonight having won 6 of the past 7 games outright and my database research indicates that Phoenix is 12-4 UNDER the total for the entire season after successfully covering the spread at a 5-1 clip.  These two teams met last month in a 112-106 shootout which helped inflate tonight’s total.  Dallas just happens to be 13-5 UNDER the total this season when “revenging” a loss against an opponent.  In his lengthy coaching career current Dallas mentor Rick Carlisle is a whopping 10-1 UNDER/HOME after consecutive games where his teams made less than 40% of their shot attempts from the floor

 

31-24 PREMIUM “TOTALS” RUN

 

64-64 premium sides+totals since Super Sunday

 

 

SAINTS-AND-UNDER

A record setting football season concludes with a “5 UNIT” Best Bet triumph

 

 

64-64 SIDES-AND-TOTALS PAST TWENTY-EIGHT DAYS

 

--Monday BEST BET William+Mary (+9) COVERS in a 60-53 Colonial Championship ESPN tussle

--Monday BEST BET William+Mary/Old Dominion OVER (117) fails in a game with just 113 points scored

--Monday Oral Roberts (+3) fails to cover by ONE point in a 69-65 contest

--Monday Timberwolves (+6’) fails to cover in a 125-112 home NBA setback versus Mavericks

--Monday Warriors/Hornets UNDER (215) fails miserably in a 135-131 shootout

---Sunday BEST BET Blackhawks (-170) lose 5-4 at home in NHL/NBC telecast

--Sunday BEST BET Florida/Kentucky OVER (141) loses by ONE point in a 74-66 CBS televised contest

--Sunday BEST BET Boston University (-2’) COVERS in a 70-63 postseason tournament road triumph

--Sunday Illinois (+3’) lose 72-57 in home finale

--Sunday Loyola-Marymount (+12) loses 77-62 in conference tournament play

--Sunday NBA Pistons (+2) COVER in a 110-107 home triumph

--Saturday BEST BET Louisville (+1) OUTRIGHT upset of #1 Syracuse

--Saturday BEST BET Washington State/Oregon OVER (134) WINS in a 74-66 contest

--Saturday BEST BET Loyola-Marymount (-1’) COVERS in a 84-76 West Coast Conference tournament triumph

--Saturday West Virginia/Villanova UNDER (152) WINS despite OT in a 68-66 televised CBS contest

--Saturday Alabama (-5’) COVERS in a 73-61 home rout

--Saturday Winthrop (+9’) OUTRIGHT upset in the Big South Championship

--Saturday Murray State (-4) COVERS in a 62-51 Ohio Valley Championship victory

--Saturday NBA Pacers (+12’) COVERS in a 113-105 road contest at Suns

--Friday BEST BET Georgia Southern (+1’) with six SENIORS on roster suffers double-digit conference tournament setback

--Friday NBA Kings (+8’) COVER in a 108-100 road verdict

--Friday Cleveland State/Wisconsin-Milwaukee UNDER (134’) fails in a 82-75 tournament contest

--Friday Jacksonville/Mercer UNDER (147) WINS in a low scoring tournament game with 129 combined points scored

--Thursday BEST BET Dayton (+4) PUSHES in 60-56 road contest they actually led at halftime

--Thursday BEST BET New Mexico State/Nevada OVER (163) WINS with ease in a 100-92 shootout

--Thursday Providence/Pittsburgh OVER (150) fails in a 73-71 ESPN contest

--Thursday Monmouth (+13’) COVERS in a 84-75 postseason tournament game they actually led at halftime

--Wednesday BEST BET Alabama-Birmingham (-3) loses outright in home finale

--Wednesday BEST BET Clippers (+4) lose by 26-point snapping a 4-game home winning streak

--Wednesday BEST BET Sabres (+120) lose at home in first game back with Olympic star goaltender Ryan Miller

--Wednesday Rhode Island (-8’) COVERS in a 80-58 rout of Charlotte

--Wednesday Lafayette (-7’) COVERS in a 73-65 postseason tournament home triumph

--Tuesday BEST BET Colorado (+5) OUTRIGHT 81-68 road upset as they snapped a 36-game conference losing skid on the highway

--Tuesday BEST BET Murray State (-20’) WINS in a 84-51 rout in the opening round of the Ohio Valley Tournament

--Tuesday Marshall (-2) loses outright 80-76 as a seven-game home win streak was snapped

--Tuesday Georgia Tech (+7) fails to cover in a 91-80 road setback

--Tuesday Tennessee Tech/Austin Peay OVER (150) fails in an Ohio Valley Conference opening round tournament 68-65 verdict

--Monday BEST BET Georgetown/West Virginia UNDER (136’) fails in a 81-68 ESPN verdict

--Monday BEST BET Oklahoma/Texas OVER (145) WINS in a high scoring 87-76 ESPN shootout

--Monday NBA Bobcats (-3) fail to cover in a 89-84 home loss versus Mavericks

--Last Sunday BEST BET Indiana (+6’) fails to cover in ugly 73-57 road setback at struggling Iowa

--Last Sunday OLYMPIC GOLD MEDAL BEST BET TOTAL “USA/Canada” UNDER (5’) WINS in a 3-2 overtime hockey thriller

--Last Sunday Seton Hall (-2’) loses outright by ONE point at home

--Last Sunday #3 ranked Purdue (-4) loses outright 53-44 at home

--Last Sunday Suns/Spurs UNDER (209’) fails in a 113-110 ABC televised shootout

--Last Saturday BEST BET Villanova (+5’) fails to cover a 95-77 ESPN road setback at Syracuse

--Last Saturday BEST BET Georgia Tech (-7’) fails to cover a 73-68 contest (Georgia Tech was up by TWELVE points with 22-seconds remaining)

--Last Saturday BEST BET Total William+Mary/NC Wilmington OVER (131’) fails in a 62-51 contest

--Last Saturday Kansas (-5’) loses outright 85-77 at Oklahoma State

--Last Saturday Tulsa (-10) COVERS an 85-73 road triumph

--Last Saturday Montana State (+10’) OUTRIGHT 73-67 road upset at rival Montana

--Last Saturday Florida International (+8’) fails to cover an 88-61 setback on “senior night”

--Friday BEST BET Timberwolves (+9’) fail to cover in a 109-92 NBA road setback

--Friday Marist (+9) fail miserably in a 62-39 home setback

--Last Thursday BEST BET Northwestern (-9) COVERS with ease in 70-52 home rout of Iowa on ESPN

--Last Thursday BEST BET Tulsa (+18’) COVERS in a 70-52 contest where they trailed by only FOUR points at halftime on Duke’s home floor

--Last Thursday Wofford (-9’) fails to cover a 74-68 straight-up home win

--Last Thursday Appalachian State (-11) fails to cover a 80-74 straight up home win

--Last Thursday NBA Warriors (+6) fail to cover a 127-112 home loss versus Nuggets on TNT

--Last Wednesday BEST BET Wichita State (-3) fails to cover in 75-73 road setback against Bradley contingent without SUSPENDED lead rebounder and #2 scorer

--Last Wednesday BEST BET South Florida/Villanova UNDER (149) WINS with ease in a 74-49 final verdict

--Last Wednesday ESPN2 Notre Dame (+1’) OUTRIGHT in 68-53 home romp of Pittsburgh

--Last Wednesday St. Johns (+2) PUSHES in 63-61 straight-up home setback versus Marquette in OVERTIME

--Last Wednesday Cal-Fullerton/Cal-Poly OVER (148’) fails in a 70-68 contest

--Last Wednesday NBA Clippers (-4) COVER in a 97-91 home triumph versus Pistons

--2/22 Tuesday BEST BET Georgia State (+9’) fails to cover in a 75-62 home setback where they actually led in the second-half

--2/22 Tuesday BEST BET Northeastern (-11) stunningly loses their home finale (Northeastern had shot a first conference title since 1991)

--2/22 Tuesday NBA Warriors (+1) lose a 110-102 home decision as a “29-5 System” fails

--2/21 Monday BEST BET Norfolk State (-1’) COVERS with ease in an 82-62 home rout of South Carolina State on ESPNU

--2/21 Monday South Carolina State/Norfolk State OVER (147’) just misses in ESPNU game with 144 combined points scored

--2/21 Monday Knicks (-1) fail to cover in a 83-67 home loss versus Bucks

--2/20 Sunday BEST BET Ohio State/Michigan State OVER (135) WINS in a 74-67 CBS televised contest

--2/20 Sunday NBA Timberwolves (+6’) COVER in a near outright upset (109-107 NBA war with Thunder)

--2/20 Sunday Virginia Tech/Duke OVER (138) fails in FOX-NET telecast with just 122 combined points scored

--2/19 Saturday ESPN PRIMETIME BEST BET Washington (-11’) COVERS with ease in 97-68 rout of UCLA

--2/19 Saturday ESPN2 BEST BET Siena (+8) fails to cover 70-53 on the road as they blew outright halftime lead

--2/19 Saturday BRACKETBUSTER primetime BEST BET Presbyterian (+11’) OUTRIGHT 59-55 upset at Jacksonville State

--2/19 Saturday Saint Josephs (+10) COVERS in 75-67 overtime thriller versus Temple

--2/19 Saturday ESPNU Bracketbuster Western Carolina (+8’) COVERS in a 74-72 thriller at Kent State

--2/19 Saturday USC/Washington State OVER (122’) fails in a 51-47 contest

--2/19 Saturday Northern Colorado (-7) fails to cover in 64-61 straight-up home victory

--2/18 Friday BEST BET William+Mary/Iona OVER (124) misses by a BUCKET in an ESPNU telecast with 122 combined points scored

--2/18 Friday NBA Sixers (+3’) OUTRIGHT in 106-94 home upset of Spurs

--2/18 Friday Columbia/Dartmouth OVER (115’) fails in a 48-44 final verdict

--2/17 Thursday BEST BET Florida International (+4) COVERS in a 77-74 home contest versus main rival Florida Atlantic

--2/17 Thursday ESPN2 BEST BET Syracuse/Georgetown OVER (142’) WINS in a high scoring 75-71 Big East clash

--2/17 Thursday ESPN Minnesota (pick) COVERS in a 68-52 home rout of Wisconsin

--2/17 Thursday UCLA/Washington State OVER (138) fails in a 71-51 contest

--2/17 Thursday TNT/NBA Celtics (+3’) OUTRIGHT 87-86 upset at Lakers

--2/16 Wednesday “5 UNIT” BEST BET Suns/Mavericks UNDER (215’) WINS in ESPN telecast with just 204 combined points scored

--2/16 Wednesday BEST BET Oklahoma State/Iowa State OVER (144’) fails in game with 133 combined points scored

--2/16 Wednesday ESPN2 Notre Dame (+11’) COVERS with ease in 91-89 Double-OT thriller

--2/16 Wednesday South Carolina (+4) fails to cover a 92-79 road setback at Arkansas

--2/16 Wednesday Saint Josephs/Xavier OVER (150’) fails in game with 140 combined points scored

--2/15 Tuesday BEST BET William+Mary (+2’) OUTRIGHT 63-60 road upset at George Mason

--2/15 Tuesday BEST BET Depaul (-4) loses outright at home versus Rutgers after coughing up massive 17-point advantage

--2/15 Tuesday Rockets (+3’) fail to cover in a 104-95 home NBA setback versus Jazz

--2/15 Monday BEST BET Kansas/Texas A+M Aggies OVER (140) fails miserably in a 59-54 final verdict

--2/15 Monday ESPN Connecticut (+9’) OUTRIGHT 84-75 upset at Villanova

--2/14 Sunday BEST BET Marist (+20) COVERS in a 70-51 road contest as five-year system approaching 80-PERCENT clicks again

--2/14 Sunday NBA All-Star game EAST (-1) COVERS in a 141-139 thriller

--2/14 Sunday CBS Total Ohio State/Illinois OVER (137) fails in game with just 125 combined points scored

--2/14 Sunday CBS College Sports Total Saint Josephs/Massachusetts OVER (151) fails in a game with just 132 combined points scored

--2/13 Saturday MARQUEE “4 Unit” Best Bet total Missouri/Baylor UNDER (145) WINS with ease in a very low scoring 64-62 contest

--2/13 Saturday BEST BET side Alabama (-6’) barely fails to cover the spread in as 73-68 straight-up home win against Arkansas

--2/13 Saturday Rhode Island (+4) fails to cover in ugly 78-56 road loss (despite lofty #12 RPI ranking)

--2/13 Saturday Cornell (-5) barely fails to cover the spread in a 48-45 straight-up victory on the road

--2/13 Saturday Saint Mary’s (+1’) fails to cover in OVERTIME (90-85 road setback)

--2/13 Saturday TOTAL Northern Colorado/Weber State OVER (148’) WINS in a 81-76 shootout

--2/12 Friday BEST BET Idaho State (+4’) fails to cover in 68-59 home loss even though their leading scorer returned from injury

--2/12 Friday Canisius (-14’) COVERS in 71-56 home triumph

--2/11 Thursday MARQUEE BEST BET (4 Units) on the Ottawa Senators (+110) WINS in a 6-5 home triumph over Washington whose 14-game NHL win streak was snapped earlier in the week

--2/11 Thursday college BEST BET Indiana-Purdue (-12) barely fails to cover by ONE point in a 88-77 outright road triumph

--2/11 Thursday TOTAL Oregon State/Arizona State UNDER (116) WINS with ease in a very low scoring 56-46 contest

--2/11 Thursday FOX-NET Oregon (+7’) fails to cover in a 70-57 road setback at Arizona

--2/11 Thursday ESPN2 Saint Mary’s (+6) fails to cover in a 80-61 road loss at Gonzaga

--2/10 Wednesday BEST BET Baylor/Nebraska UNDER (133’) WINS with ease in ESPN2 telecast with just 108 combined points scored

--2/10 Wednesday NBA Kings (+4’) OUTRIGHT 103-97 road upset at Pistons

--2/10 Wednesday Rhode Island (-5’) fails to cover in outright home loss versus Richmond

--2/10 Wednesday SEC Network South Carolina (-1’) COVERS in 77-71 home triumph versus Florida

--2/10 Wednesday ESPN2-TV  Idaho (+1’) COVERS in 67-66 home thriller versus Nevada

--2/10 Wednesday CBS College Sports New Mexico/Nevada-Las Vegas UNDER (146) WINS in 76-66 national cable televised contest

--2/9 Tuesday BEST BET Thunder/Blazers UNDER (192) WINS by 26-point margin in very low scoring 89-77 contest

--2/9 Tuesday ESPN Purdue (+2’) OUTRIGHT in 76-64 romp at Michigan State

--2/9 Tuesday NBA Timberwolves/Sixers OVER (205’) WINS with ease in affair with 216 combined points scored

--2/8 Monday BEST BET Siena (-11’) fails to cover even though they extended an outright home win streak to 33 in a row versus banged up opponent

--2/8 Monday ESPN Kansas/Texas UNDER (152) WINS in a 80-68 contest

--2/8 Monday NBA Warriors (+4’) fail to cover and blow a double-digit second half lead in 127-117 home loss

--2/7 Sunday “5 UNIT” Super Bowl Total UNDER (57) WINS in a contest with 48 combined points scored

--2/7 Sunday Super Bowl side Saints (+5) OUTRIGHT 31-17 in stunning upset of Colts

--2/7 Sunday BEST BET college Canisius (+6) COVERS with ease in a near outright upset (73-72 final score)

--2/7 Sunday NHL/NBC special Penguins/Capitals OVER (6’) WINS with ease in a 5-4 marquee shootout

 

 

Football Best Bets wrap up (23-14) since 12/12

All Football BEST BETS 60 PERCENT (71-48) final 100 days of coverage

*****Ranked #1 NFL for the entire regular season plus #1 College Bowls up against the nation’s elite handicappers as professionally monitored at (www.sports-watch.com) *****

 

 

31-24 premium service TOTALS run (including Super Bowl 5-Unit Under)

 

 

ALL SIDES+TOTALS 22-11 FOUR WEEKS AGO

 

--Sunday Super Bowl “5 Unit” BEST BET Total Saints/Colts UNDER (57) WINS in game with 48 combined points scored

--Sunday Super Bowl side Saints (+5) OUTRIGHT upset 31-17 against Colts

--Sunday College BEST BET Canisius (+6) COVER with ease in a near outright upset (73-72 final score)

--Sunday NHL/NBC special Penguins/Capitals OVER (6’) WINS in a 5-4 shootout

--Saturday BEST BET Tennessee-Martin (-1) fails to cover in a 74-68 home setback against a depleted opponent who kicked 4 players off the squad

--Saturday BEST BET William+Mary (-2) COVERS in a 59-56 road triumph at Georgia State

--Saturday ESPN2 Dayton (-3) COVERS with ease in a 90-65 blowout of Xavier

--Saturday ESPN Duke/Boston College UNDER (141’) WINS with ease in low scoring affair with 129 combined points scored

--Saturday ESPN Michigan State/Illinois UNDER (138) fails in a 78-73 contest

--Saturday ESPNU Nevada (+9) barely misses by TWO points in a 76-65 road setback

--Saturday FREE pick Northern Iowa (-10) fails to cover in 55-52 straight-up home win

--Friday BEST BET Brown (+5’) fails to cover in a 85-75 setback where they were actually leading for more than an entire half on the highway

--Friday NBA Rockets (+5) OUTRIGHT in a 101-83 romp at Grizzlies

--Friday NCAA Montana (-4) COVERS with ease in a 75-61 rout of Weber State

--Friday FREE pick Lakers (-8) lose outright at home in rare setback at Staples Center

--Thursday BEST BET Tennessee Tech (+11) fails to cover in a 76-58 contest at Eastern Kentucky

--Thursday ESPN Notre Dame (-3) COVERS with ease in a 83-65 rout of Cincinnati

--Thursday ESPN2 Total Georgia Tech/Duke UNDER (145) fails in a game with 153 combined points scored

--Thursday NBA/TNT Blazers (+2) OUTRIGHT 96-93 upset of Spurs

--Thursday FOX-NET Washington (-10) fails to cover in a game they won outright by just “six” points

--Thursday FREE pick Long Beach State (-5’) loses outright at home versus Cal-Fullerton

--Wednesday BEST BET Alabama-Birmingham (+7’) fails to cover in a “ten point” road setback

--Wednesday BEST BET Idaho/Utah State OVER (131) WINS in a 80-62 shootout

--Wednesday West Virginia (-10) COVERS in a 70-51 blowout of West Virginia

--Wednesday NC State/Virginia UNDER (135) WINS in low scoring 59-47 contest

--Wednesday NBA Warriors (+12) COVER in 110-101 contest at Mavericks

--Wednesday FREE pick South Florida (+13) OUTRIGHT upset at Georgetown

--Tuesday ESPN Mississippi/Kentucky OVER (151) wins in 85-75 shootout

--Tuesday NBA Rockets (-7) wins in a 119-97 home rout of Warriors

--Tuesday Best Bet (Tennessee State0 postponed due to leak in roof

--Tuesday FREE pick Pacers (+1) win with ease in 130-115 NBA home rout of Raptors

--Monday BEST BET Mavericks/Jazz UNDER (199) wins in a 104-92 contest

--Monday ESPN Total Texas/Oklahoma State UNDER (151’) wins with ease in a 72-60 final verdict

--Monday FREE pick Iona (-10) covers with ease in a 72-53 home romp of Canisius

 

All college basketball BEST BETS 4-1 four weeks ago and 12-6 for the entire month of January

 

 

4-1-1 COLLEGE BASKETBALL BEST BETS FIVE WEEKS AGO

 

--Monday no college Best Bet

--Tuesday ESPN South Carolina (+7’) OUTRIGHT upset of #1 ranked Kentucky

--Wednesday Texas A+M (+5’) fails to cover by BUCKET in a 76-69 setback at Oklahoma State

--Thursday Arkansas (+3’) OUTRIGHT 67-62 versus Mississippi State

--Thursday Seton Hall/South Florida OVER (147) WINS in 76-74 overtime tussle

--Friday no college Best Bet

--Saturday Auburn (+1) OUTRIGHT in 58-57 home thriller versus rival Alabama

--Saturday Washington State/Washington OVER (156) PUSHES in 92-64 contest

--Sunday no college Best Bet (but “3-1” overall college performance)

 

 

SUPER BOWL “5 UNIT” TOTALS WIN (48 combined points scored)

 

TONIGHT’S SPECIAL “5 UNIT” REDZONE BEST BET TOTAL (Super Bowl UNDER 57’ in a 6:25 eastern kickoff on CBS):  This was an unusual postseason where not only did the higher seeds prosper but almost all operated out of “domed” stadiums.  Basically this is the first “true” game in awhile that is actually being played outdoors and I am taking advantage.  We did have an outdoor game in Miami last Sunday and the Pro Bowl as predicted soared above a total that was almost the exact same as we have this evening.  In the Pro Bowl defenses cannot blitz and are forced into “one on one” coverage so the total deserves to be sky high, but I am not sure a championship game is deserving of a similar spot.  Of course the oddsmakers had no choice but to post the highest Super Bowl total ever due to the fact that both offenses have record setting quarterbacks as Drew Brees led the NFL in passer rating (109) and Peyton Manning was not far behind (104.6).  Both signal callers passed for more than 4,300 yards and at least 33 touchdowns which are just some of the mind boggling statistics.  But the bottom line is that both of these teams have played UNDER “inflated” spots this season which tells me that have just enough defensive presence.  New Orleans actually went 3-1 UNDER against opponents from the American Conference with one of them UNDER an enormous spot (57) against New England and Tom Brady (quarterback of the decade).  For those of you who may be wondering there were a ton of points scored in that Saints/Patriots contest (38-17 final score) but the oddsmakers bumped up the number just enough to make some money for themselves and we have a similar scenario here.  The highest spot for Indianapolis this season was 50’ points versus Houston and the game easily went UNDER the total in a 20-17 contest.  It is interesting note that the Colts slipped above the spot in 5 of 6 chances this season when the over/under figure was in the “low to mid 40’s” but that obviously is not the case tonight.  I want to take all of you back to the 2006 NFC Championship game when New Orleans lost at Chicago primarily due to a porous defense that gave up too many points.  Despite their high-octane attack the Saints were never a serious contender for the Super Bowl until this campaign when they hired a marquee DEFENSIVE coordinator.  For those who may not be aware New Orleans head coach Sean Payton actually “deferred” some of his salary so that the team could sign veteran coordinator Gregg Williams who preaches “old school” physical football.  In the preseason Williams hammered home that his personnel needed to be aggressive on every down and go for the football.  It comes as no personal shock that the Saints ended up leading the league in “turnover ratio” and it all has to do with Williams who in 1993 learned his craft while serving as a special teams coach alongside then Houston Oilers defensive coordinator Buddy Ryan.  Of course this is the same Buddy Ryan who whose infamous “46 defense” revolutionized the NFL in the 1980’s and delivered the Chicago Bears of 1985 a Super Bowl title.  Like his mentor Gregg Williams believes in going after the opposing quarterback and that is exactly what the Saints accomplished in the NFC Championship where they constantly “hurried” Bret Favre and at one point drove him to the sidelines with an injury.  In the Divisional playoff victory against Arizona the New Orleans front-four led by 307-pound tackle Sedrick Ellis repeatedly pushed Kurt Warner’s offensive line back in his face.  I am fully aware that both NFC playoff contests involving New Orleans were very high scoring by a key factor is that both Minnesota and Arizona’s stop-units were riddled with INJURIES.  Due to those injuries Arizona became the first team ever to allow at least 45 points in consecutive postseason contests.  Minnesota in the Divisional round saw one of their best pass rushers suffer a significant injury and they were already operating with a rookie middle linebacker.  This particular Super Bowl reminds me of the Patriots/Giants matchup a few years ago as the only way an underdog can win is to rattle a superstar quarterback by shredding his trusted offensive line and presenting so many defensive looks that the final whistle blows before he can figure out how to respond.  The most successful NFL team in the past decade was New England where coach Bill Belichick was a master of disguising a multitude of coverages that would confuse the opposition.  Of course the big media story this week has been the health of Indianapolis star defensive rusher Dwight Freeney but the Colts during the regular season often played without him.  Indianapolis very quietly has a “hard hat” defense that has allowed only 20 points in the playoffs and held the Jets scoreless for an entire half.  The Colts defense is underrated as they operate under Peyton Manning’s shadow.  With more size and speed than unusual (pair of starting tackles at more than 310 pounds) Indy tied for #2 in the entire NFL in scoring defense through the initial 14 games before they ultimately stopped trying.  Here is a whopping "22-4" SYSTEM (84% past five years with a lofty posted total of 49' points or higher) which plays teams like Indianapolis with a poor pass defense whose completion percentage against is 60%-or-worse UNDER the total when off a game where they averaged 8+ yards per pass attempt.  Continuing with Indianapolis they are 7-0 UNDER the past two years after allowing at least 6 yards per play in the previous game.  New Orleans is 6-0 UNDER for the entire season after a game where they allowed 400+ total yards.  Do I hear 7-0 UNDER anyone?!

 

 

SUPER BOWL SIDE (Saints OUTRIGHT upset)

 

SUPER BOWL INTANGIBLE SIDE (Saints +5’ versus Colts in a 6:25 eastern kickoff on CBS):  As you can see in the above analysis the main reason why New Orleans has finally reached their initial Super Bowl has to do with the offseason hiring of defensive coordinator Gregg Williams who alone has made this squad #1 in NFL forced turnovers and we all know how critical turnovers are in big games.  By just mere statistics there is no way that Minnesota actually lost the NFC Championship as they went up and down the field to the tune of 475 total yards, but the 5 turnovers forced by the Saints opportunistic defense cashed their ticket to Miami.  The bottom line regarding this pick is that neither of these sides are true “margin” teams which makes TAKING the available points intriguing.  Indianapolis had 7 different games this season decided by “four or less” points as they rode the exceptional talent of Peyton Manning in the final quarter.  New Orleans registered 5 separate “come from behind” victories where they dug themselves out of an early hole.  The intangibles of this contest have to do in part to the fact that this is the 50th-anniversary season of the old AFL which became a legitimate league in Super Bowl 3 when Joe Namath came through with his infamous guarantee and the Jets pulled off a massive upset in a contest played at MIAMI which is the site of this year’s event.  We have seen plenty of marquee quarterbacks play CLOSE Super Bowls in Miami through the years including Joe Montana’s fourth quarter miracle comeback against San Francisco that put a wrap on the 1980’s.  There is no question that Peyton Manning has the edge over Drew Brees especially in big-game experience, but that does not necessarily mean a spread triumph.  In the early stages of this campaign New Orleans averaged about 150 rush yards per contest which is way above the statistics put up by the almost non-existent Colts running game.  Of course a sustained rushing attack leads to longer drives and New Orleans conceivably has a big edge in that area.  Both of these teams dealt with media criticism of resting players down the stretch which is another indication where there is not that much disparity between these clubs.  One could make a strong argument that Indianapolis should be a two-touchdown favorite in this contest since they had a chance of running the table for the entire season, so that opening price tag set by the oddsmakers (-3’) was in my opinion extremely telling.  For those of you who may not be aware no team has ever won the Super Bowl after losing 3 consecutive regular season contests which puts New Orleans behind the eight-ball so to speak.  But one of those setbacks was against which snapped a 13-game winning streak was triggered by a television analyst that created “bulletin board” material.  NBC commentator Tony Dungy proclaimed that Dallas had absolutely no shot at upsetting the then undefeated Saints in New Orleans.  Following the stunning result one of the Dallas players commented that Dungy’s comments the prior week had actually inspired them.  I bring up the subject of the Colts former head coach because just this week Dungy has proclaimed in the media that Indianapolis should essentially crush New Orleans and hopefully that challenge has reached the Saints locker room.  This is a very large “revenge” battle for New Orleans who made it all the way to the 2006 NFC Championship game.  The last time New Orleans faced the Colts was the heavy hyped regular season 2007 NBC-TV primetime opener where Drew Brees and company were crushed by a 41-10 count.  While on the subject of Brees he almost ended up in Miami but the Dolphins ultimately passed deciding that he would never fully recover from a shoulder injury.  Not only does Brees return to the city of Miami for the biggest game of his life, he also directed an incredible comeback at Dolphins Stadium earlier in the campaign.  My database research indicates that Brees in his career is an excellent 19-5 ATS when facing a marquee opponent that has a win percentage of .700 or higher.  Meanwhile in the past seventeen years Indianapolis is an extremely poor 3-12 ATS/ROAD in the second-half of the season against solid rushing teams that average at least 130 yards per game on the ground and earlier in this analysis I indicated how important running the football is.  I will wrap up this analysis with an UNDEFEATED two-year angle which simply states that New Orleans is 8-0 ATS against “non” conference opposition.  Do I hear 9-0 ATS anyone?!          

 

 

NFL PRO BOWL “BEST BET WIN” ON SUNDAY 1/31

Yet another NFL Best Bet Sunday winner in a 41-34 Pro Bowl shootout

 

TONIGHT’S “3 UNIT” REDZONE BEST BET NFL TOTAL (Pro Bowl OVER 57’ in a 7:20 eastern kickoff on ESPN):  Of course the big story here is that for the first time ever the NFL’s All-Star game is being moved one week ahead of the Super Bowl in an effort to generate more television ratings along with more fans in the stands.  Dating all the way back to 1980 the Pro Bowl has annually been held in Hawaii as a “vacation award” for the participating players, but the bottom line is that this move to the mainland has already paid off for the league as there will be a sellout crowd of more than 70-thousand at Dolphins Stadium in Miami.  With that anticipated sellout we are looking at the heaviest attended Pro Bowl in FIFTY YEARS.  As previously mentioned the league also is attempting to transform their All-Star game into a bigger game by playing it the week before Super Sunday.  I for one agree with recent comments by commissioner Roger Goodell in that this year’s Pro Bowl has already garnered more ATTENTION from the public and media as it is being showcased on a weekend where there is usually no football and interest in the NFL is at its highest.  For the mere sake of television ratings the league would love to see a high scoring and competitive Pro Bowl which is one of the reasons why I am so enthusiastic about the OVER even though we have an extremely high posted total.  The bottom line is that with the Pro Bowl being played a full 2 weeks earlier than normal the participating players are in BETTER SHAPE.  Of course the placement of the All-Star game the various elected players who will be participating in next week’s Super Bowl will not be taking the field, but that has just opened up OPPORTUNITY for many personnel who do not get many National-TV opportunities during the regular season.  Houston quarterback Matt Schaub very quietly led the entire NFL with 4,770 passing yards and has been given the opportunity to start for the AFC after the loss of Peyton Manning along with injuries to Tom Brady and Phillip Rivers.  Not only is the Texans quarterback now a starter, so is his favorite target Andre Johnson who actually GREW UP in the Miami area and played collegiately for the Hurricanes.  Johnson along with Marvin Harrison are the only wide receivers in league history to have consecutive 1,500+ yard receptions seasons.  Also at one of the wide out spots for the AFC is the outspoken Chad Ochocinco who loves to give inspired performances both for the fans and more importantly for his own personal attention.  Ochocinco spent the regular season stuck in a Cincinnati offense that was “run oriented” but this evening gets to strut his stuff against league mandated “one on one” coverage.  It is interesting to note that the AFC offense also had 3 running backs (Chris Johnson, Ray Rice, Maurice Jones-Drew) who have the ability to CATCH the football out of the backfield which increases receiving options.  As far as the NFC offense is concerned they have 3 quarterbacks (Aaron Rodgers, Donovan McNabb, Tony Romo) who all have STRONG throwing arms suited for DEEP passes.  Just like the AFC receivers, the National Conference wideouts have the benefit of only dealing with “one on one” defensive coverage.  Traditionally Pro Bowls are very high scoring because in an effort to avoid injuries the defenses are not allowed to employ the blitz and also lack the preparation time to install any elaborate schemes.  Last year’s Pro Bowl featured only 51 combined points score but once again this year’s event is being played two weeks earlier where the various offensive personnel are in much better shape.  The tinkering with this year’s Pro Bowl to boost ratings and attendance basically encourages a higher scoring contest than normal

 

12-6 ALL COLLEGE BASKETBALL JANUARY BEST BETS

 

*****Ranked #1 NFL for the entire regular season plus #1 College Bowls up against the nation’s elite handicappers as professionally monitored at (www.sports-watch.com) *****

 

 

40-39 PREMIUM “BASKETBALL” BEST BET SIDES+TOTALS PAST FIFTY-EIGHT DAYS

--1/8 BEST BET Loyola-Maryland (+9) COVERS in close 65-60 ESPNU televised tussle at Fairfield

--1/9 BEST BET Georgia Tech (+7’) OUTRIGHT 71-67 upset of Duke in an ESPN televised national clash

--1/10 BEST BET Oregon State (+8’) OUTRIGHT 64-57 road upset at rival Oregon in primetime FOX-NET televised Pac-10 special

--1/11 BEST BET Cavaliers/Warriors OVER (212) WINS with ease in 117-114 NBA shootout (19 point Best Bet cover)

--1/12 BEST BET Miami-Ohio (-1’) COVERS in a 55-53 overtime thriller where Miami’s coach tied an all-time league record for victories

--1/13 BEST BET “4 Unit” MARQUEE monster Furman (+6’) COVERS in a close 86-81 home contest versus Davidson

--1/13 BEST BET Suns (-4) lose outright 122-114 at Pacers

--1/13 BEST BET Nebraska (+12) PUSHES in 84-72 final ESPN2 televised home verdict against Kansas

--1/14 BEST BET Arkansas (+14) COVERS with ease in very close 82-80 ESPNU thriller at Mississippi State

--1/16 BEST BET Idaho State (+4) COVERS in a 95-93 home thriller versus “border war” rival Weber State

--1/17 no hoops Best Bet

--1/18 BEST BET Texas/Kansas State OVER (158’) fails in a 71-62 final verdict

--1/19 BEST BET George Mason/Hofstra UNDER (124’) fails miserably in a 90-72 shootout

--1/20 BEST BET Sixers (+1) fail to cover in a 98-90 home setback versus Blazers

--1/20 BEST BET Texas El-Paso (+8’) OUTRIGHT at Memphis snapping the Tigers record 64-game conference winning streak (opening college “5 UNIT” bombshell)

--1/21 BEST BET Tennessee-Martin (+2) failed to cover in a 77-63 road loss against Southeast Missouri State who for the FIRST TIME ALL SEASON was cast as a favorite

--1/22 BEST BET Idaho State (-6’) failed to cover by a HOOK in a 80-74 straight-up home triumph

--1/23 BEST BET Arkansas (+16’) fails to cover in ugly 101-70 setback at Kentucky

--1/23 BEST BET South Florida (+6) OUTRIGHT road upset at Providence

--1/24 No Best Bet

--1/25 BEST BET Hornets/Blazers UNDER (189) fail to hit in a 98-97 contest

--1/26 BEST BET South Carolina (+7’) OUTRIGHT upset 68-62 versus #1 ranked Kentucky

--1/27 BEST BET Texas A+M (+5’) barely fails to cover in a SEVEN point 76-69 ESPN2 televised setback

--1/27 BEST BET Heat (+3’) fails to cover a 111-103 road setback at Raptors in the NBA

--1/28 BEST BET Seton Hall/South Florida OVER (147) WINS in a 76-74 overtime verdict on ESPN2

--1/28 BEST BET Arkansas (+3’) OUTRIGHT 67-62 home triumph versus Mississippi State

--1/29 BEST BET Clippers (pick) lose 111-97 at Timberwolves in the NBA

--1/30 BEST BET Hawks (+5’) fail to cover in ugly 104-86 loss at Magic

--1/30 BEST BET Auburn (+1) COVERS in a 58-57 outright win against rival Alabama

--1/30 BEST BET Washington State/Washington OVER (156) PUSHES in a 92-64 final verdict

--1/31 Football Best Bet WIN but no basketball Best Bet

--2/1 BEST BET Mavericks/Jazz UNDER (199) WINS in a 104-92 final verdict

--2/2 BEST BET Tennessee State POSTPONED by leaky roof

--2/3 BEST BET Alabama-Birmingham (+7’) fails to cover in “ten point” road setback

--2/3 BEST BET BIdaho/Utah State OVER (131) WINS in a 80-62 shootout

--2/4 BEST BET Tennessee Tech (+11) loses by an “eighteen” point margin in road setback

--2/5 BEST BET Brown (+5’) fails to cover a game they led outright on road for more than an entire half

--2/6 BEST BET Tennessee-Martin (-1) failed to cover against opponent who just kicked 4 players off team

--2/6 BEST BET William+Mary (-2) COVERS in a 59-56 road triumph

--2/7 BEST BET Canisius (+6) COVERS with ease in near outright road upset (73-72 final score)

--2/8 BEST BET Siena (-11’) fails to cover even though extending home straight-up streak to 33 in a row

--2/9 BEST BET Thunder/Blazers UNDER (192) WINS with ease in game with just 166 combined points scored

--2/10 BEST BET Baylor/Nebraska UNDER (146) WINS with ease in ESPN2 televised contest with just 108 combined points scored

--2/11 BEST BET Indiana-Purdue (-12) fails to cover by ONE point in an outright 88-77 road triumph

--2/12 BEST BET Idaho State (+4’) fails to cover in 68-59 home loss even though LEAD SCORER returned from injury

--2/13 BEST BET Alabama (-6’) barely fails to cover in a 73-68 straight-up home victory

--2/13 BEST BET Missouri/Baylor UNDER (145) WINS in a very low scoring 64-62 contest

--2/14 BEST BET Marist (+20) COVERS in a 70-51 road contest at Niagra

--2/15 BEST BET Kansas/Texas A+M Aggies OVER (140) fails miserably in a 59-54 final verdict

--2/16 BEST BET Depaul (-4) loses outright at home in game where they blew a 17-point advantage

--2/16 BEST BET William+Mary (+2’) OUTRIGHT 63-60 on the road at George Mason

--2/17 BEST BET Oklahoma State/Iowa State OVER (144’) fails in a 69-64 contest

--2/17 BEST BET Suns/Mavericks UNDER (215’) WINS in ESPN contest with 204 combined points scored

--2/18 BEST BET Florida International (+4) COVERS in 77-74 rivalry contest versus Florida Atlantic

--2/18 BEST BET Syracuse/Georgetown OVER (142’) WINS in a high scoring 75-71 Big East ESPN2 TV clash

--2/19 BEST BET William+Mary/Iona OVER (124) barely misses in ESPNU contest with 122 combined points scored

--2/20 BEST BET Siena (+8) blows halftime outright lead and loses 70-53 at Butler

--2/20 BEST BET Washington (-11’) COVERS with ease in 97-68 ESPN home rout of UCLA

--2/20 BEST BET Presbyterian (+11’) OUTRIGHT 59-55 road upset at Jacksonville State

--2/21 BEST BET Ohio State/Michigan State OVER (135) WINS in a 74-67 CBS telecast

--2/22 BEST BET Norfolk State (-1’) COVERS with ease in a 82-62 home rout of South Carolina State in an ESPNU telecast

--2/23 BEST BET Georgia State (+9’) fails to cover their home finale 75-62 in a game they led outright in the second-half

--2/23 BEST BET Northeastern (-11) loses their home finale and a shot at their first conference regular season title since 1991

--2/24 BEST BET Wichita State (-3) fails to cover in 75-73 road setback

--2/24 BEST BET South Florida/Villanova UNDER (149) WINS with ease in low scoring 74-49 affair

--2/25 BEST BET Tulsa (+18’) COVERS in a 70-52 final verdict at Duke

--2/25 BEST BET Northwestern (-9) COVERS in a 74-57 ESPN televised home wipeout of Iowa

--2/26 BEST BET Timberwolves (+9’) fail to cover in a 109-92 home setback versus Thunder

--2/27 BEST BET Villanova (+5’) fails to cover a 95-77 ESPN road setback at Syracuse

--2/27 BEST BET Georgia Tech (-7’) fails to cover a 73-68 straight-up triumph where they led by TWELVE points with 22-seconds remaining

--2/27 BEST BET William+Mary/NC Wilmington OVER (131’) fails in a 62-51 final verdict

--2/28 BEST BET Indiana (+6’) fails to cover in an ugly 73-57 road setback at struggling Iowa

--3/1 BEST BET Georgetown/West Virginia UNDER (136’) fails in an ESPN contest with 149 combined points scored

--3/1 BEST BET Oklahoma/Texas OVER (145) WINS in a high scoring 87-76 ESPN clash

--3/2 BEST BET Colorado (+5) OUTRIGHT 81-68 at Nebraska snapping a massive 36-game road losing streak

--3/2 BEST BET Murray State (-20’) COVERS with ease in a 84-51 home rout of Tennessee State

--3/3 BEST BET Clippers (+4) lose by 26 points as 4-game home win streak is snapped

--3/3 BEST BET Alabama-Birmingham (-3) loses home finale outright 70-65 versus main rival Memphis

--3/4 BEST BET Dayton (+4) PUSHES in a 60-56 road contest

--3/4 BEST BET New Mexico State/Nevada OVER (163) WINS with ease in a 100-92 shootout

--3/5 BEST BET Georgia Southern (+1’) with six SENIORS suffer double-digit conference tournament loss

--3/7 BEST BET Florida/Kentucky OVER (141) fails by ONE point in a game with 140 combined points scored

--3/7 BEST BET Boston University (-2’) COVERS in a 70-63 conference tournament road triumph

--3/8 BEST BET William+Mary/Old Dominion OVER (117) fails in Colonial Championship with just 113 combined points scored

--3/8 BEST BET William+Mary (+9) COVERS in a 60-53 Colonial conference championship

 

 

OPENING COLLEGE BASKETBALL 5-UNIT EVENT WINS

As predicted Memphis’ record 64-game conference win streak was snapped ON 1/20

 

*****Ranked #1 NFL for the entire regular season plus #1 College Bowls up against the nation’s elite handicappers as professionally monitored at (www.sports-watch.com)*****

 

 

OPENING COLLEGE HOOP “5 UNIT” EVENT WINS ON 1/20

As you will see in the analysis below Memphis had just snapped the consecutive conference regular season win record that was held for 56-YEARS.  On Wednesday as predicted that record 64-game winning tear that began in 2006 was snapped by a Texas El-Paso contingent that had FIVE players with Memphis roots plus almost an entire coaching staff who at one time was employed by the Tigers.  Texas El-Paso (+8’) won OUTRIGHT and in a personal MONEY LINE (+320) wager

 

TONIGHT’S SPECIAL “5 UNIT” REDZONE COLLEGE BEST BET (Texas-El Paso +8’ at Memphis in a 8:05 eastern tipoff broadcast on CBS College Sports):  This past Saturday evening Memphis broke Kentucky’s 56-YEAR old record for consecutive regular season victories (52) in conference play which puts them in line to finally lose a game which could very well be this evening against an opponent who has incredible “Memphis ties” which will be detailed in this analysis segment.  Including the Conference USA postseason tournament, Memphis has won an incredible 64 in a row against league opposition with the last setback way back in March of 2006.  Of course the Memphis head coach during this streak was the same John Calipari who is now employed at Kentucky and is in the running for “coach of the year”.  While Calipari proved to be an excellent recruiter it remains to be seen if his replacement Josh Pastner can carry on the winning tradition.  The odds seem to be against his long term success especially since Calipari exited the Memphis program in a cloud of controversy making one think the Tigers will soon face the wrath of an NCAA investigation.  For the moment Memphis continues to make a mockery of what is a very weak conference but without Calipari at the controls the Tigers suddenly have become a financial drain for bettors.  Something has to give this evening because both Memphis (0-8 ATS) and Texas-El Paso (0-6 ATS) are currently mired in long slides against the spread.  With Memphis continuing to win games straight-up the oddsmakers successfully have been “inflating” their price tags, but with them laying only “single digits” this evening my personal attention has been grabbed.  Tony Barbee is in year #4 as the Texas El-Paso head coach and he just happened to be on the Memphis bench the last time the Tigers suffered a conference loss. Barbee was a Memphis assistant from 2001 through 2006 so he has special MOTIVATION to finally put an end to the Tigers 64-game Conference USA winning streak.  But the connections do not end there as UTEP’s assistant coach Tony Madlock actually was a four-year letterman for the Tigers from 1988-through-1992.  Another current El Paso assistant Milt Wagner was actually director of basketball operations at Memphis from 2001-through-2006.  UTEP’s current basketball director of operations Mike Babul was assistant director at Memphis in 2003-2004.  Finally Nathaniel Root (UTEP assistant director of basketball operations) was a PLAYER for Memphis from 200-1to-2003.  One would think that the fact that most of the current Miners coaching staff has ties to Memphis would be enough, but the story does not end there.  Amazingly FIVE different players on the current Texas-El Paso roster actually call Memphis home and a pair of them (Jeremy Williams, Myron Strong) will be making their first trip back home in Miner uniforms.  Strong says he grew up watching the Tigers and dreamed of playing for them.  Williams who was a high school teammate of Strong says quote “this is an experience you live for”.  Williams also says that nothing would be better than to come back home and snap the Memphis record setting win streak.  One of the reasons why the posted line on tonight’s contest is only “single digits” has to do with the fact that these two teams statistically are very similar according to the Conference USA rankings.  UTEP is ranked #4 in average points per game while Memphis checks in at #5.  UTEP is ranked #3 in conference shooting percentage from the field while Memphis is close behind at #5 in that category.  The Miners have played well against Memphis the past two seasons.  Last year the Tigers tamed the Miners 70-63 in El-Paso.  Two years ago in Memphis and with the Tigers having a #1 national ranking, UTEP led 60-58 with 3:45 to play and actually trailed by ONE point with 1:18 remaining in what turned out to be a nailbiter.  Now you know why I am personally placing a pair of wagers on Texas-El Paso this evening including the “money line” (+320) which would give me an enormous return on a rather small investment.  Turning to the database here is a 75-PERCENT SYSTEM (35-12 past dozen years) which plays ON road teams like Texas El-Paso off a “no cover” where they won straight-up on the scoreboard as a favorite, against an opponent off consecutive “non” covers where the team also won outright cast as a favorite.  That system supports Texas-El Paso who is also a whopping 9-1 ATS/ROAD the past three years after a game where the defense allowed less than 26 “first half” points.  To recap we have Texas-El Paso who has FIVE players with Memphis ties along with almost the entire coaching staff.  All of those Miner personnel will be seeking to finally put an end to what is now college basketball’s longest regular season conference winning streak (52) in FIFTY-SIX YEARS

 

NFL DIVISIONAL PLAYOFF AFC PRIMETIME SWEEP

A special “5 UNIT” Best Bet bombshell on the Colts (-3’) to cover the first-half cashed a WINNING ticket as well as a “3 Unit” major move on Indianapolis in a 20-3 rout of the Ravens (UNDER the total also comes through)

 

TONIGHT’S NFL “3 UNIT” TRIPLE PLAY MAJOR SIDE (Colts -6 at home versus Ravens in an 8:15 eastern kickoff on CBS):  Of course there has been major controversy in Indianapolis in regards to the squad coughing up a chance to run the table in the regular season where they rested regulars down the stretch.  But the bottom line is that due to that strategy Indianapolis is much HEALTHIER than tonight’s opponent.  Last weekend we all saw Baltimore pull off a stunning upset of a New England contingent that had won 23 consecutive home playoff outings.  But due to massive injuries that Ravens victory was not nearly as impressive as one would have thought.  While the Colts were getting “brow beaten” in the national media for letting up on the gas pedal, the Patriots lost their #1 receiving option and NFL leader Wes Welker on the final Sunday of the regular campaign.  With his absence all that Baltimore had to do was double-team New England’s other star receiving option Randy Moss who just happened to MISS a practice session late in the week due to injury.  New England was extremely defensive when CBS studio analyst Charley Casserly reported a couple of weeks ago that superstar Tom Brady was playing with 3 cracked ribs.  No matter what the Patriots said it was obvious that Brady was not near 100% last weekend.  On the other side of the football New England was operating with a patchwork defense that was torn apart by veterans simply getting too old to perform at a high level.  Thus once again it is not worth reading too far into what appeared to be a superlative effort by Baltimore last weekend.  Even though it did not come into play during the Wildcard playoff Ravens quarterback Joe Flacco completed only FOUR passes in part due to hip injury that clearly affected his throwing motion.  One of Baltimore’s few solid receiving options (veteran tight end Todd Heap) ended up getting his back twisted and comes into this evening NOT at 100% efficiency.  Once again even though it did not become a major issue last week since they grabbed an early 24-point lead courtesy of turnovers the fact of the matter is that Baltimore’s defensive secondary is BANGED UP which should have Peyton Manning salivating.  Even though Indianapolis struggled for the most part on third-down conversions, there is a reason why Manning is attempting to become the 15th player to be named MVP and win the Super Bowl in the same season (most recent way back in 1999).  Even though the Ravens stop-unit led by the emotional Ray Lewis has the ability to harass opposing quarterbacks, Peyton Manning receives excellent protection and no one is better at making pre-snap adjustments.  Give Manning time and he will shred a Ravens secondary relying on RESERVE cornerbacks Chris Carr and Frank Walker who have been forced into the starting lineup.  Even thought it seems like an eternity, Peyton Manning in the regular season finale completed 14-of-18 passes in the SNOW at Buffalo before getting pulled in the second stanza.  I am aware that Indianapolis is operating with a rookie head coach but the fact of the matter is that Jim Caldwell has been on the Colts staff since 2002.  The amazing coaching continuity that the Colts have enjoyed is major even though often unheralded in the national press.  I am also aware that Indianapolis is 0-3 in the playoffs following a Bye week but all that is going to do is inspire this group who comes in with a collective chip on their shoulder.  According to my database research the fact that Indianapolis pulled their defensive starters a couple of weeks ago in the snow makes them an incredible percentage wager this evening.  In the past three years Indianapolis is 7-0 ATS after allowing at least 6 yards per play in the prior game.  Do I hear 8-0 ATS anyone?!

 

NFL DIVISIONAL PLAYOFF NFC (Saints in a 45-14 rout)

 

NFL PLAYOFF PERCENTAGE SIDE (Saints -7 at home versus Cardinals in a 4:35 eastern kickoff on FOX):  The key to this selection surrounds the critical area of TURNOVERS which can swing a football game in an instant.  Of the twelve teams that made the playoffs Arizona has committed the most miscues as their turnover margin (-7) is horrible.  On the other hand the opportunistic Saints ranked #2 in the entire NFL with 39 takeaways and a PLUS-ELEVEN turnover margin.  A new defensive coordinator along with new personnel such as safety Darren Sharper (9 interceptions, 3 picks returned for score) literally transformed the team.  The New Orleans defense has gone from being the primary weakness to one that has made “game changing” plays.  Regular clients know that I personally loaded up on Arizona one week ago as they banded together even though star wide receiver Anquan Boldin (ankle, knee) was unable to play.  It will be much tougher for Arizona to cover for Boldin once again this week since they are now playing on the road.  As mentioned in last Sunday’s analysis many of the Arizona players were irked that Green Bay treated both the regular season finale and a preseason exhibition contest seriously.  The shoe is on the other foot this week as New Orleans is now the squad that has to prove themselves as that amazing 13-0 start to the campaign suddenly became ancient history.  One of the main reasons why New Orleans struggled down the stretch was due to major injuries to the offense which cost tight end Jeremy Shockey (toe) 3 games.  Both Shockey and wide receiver Lance Moore are expected to be back on the field late this afternoon as well as impact rusher Pierre Thomas who cracked three ribs in a late season setback.  While on the subject of New Orleans running backs veteran Deuce McAllister will be in uniform to add EMOTION on the sidelines as a ceremonial team captain.   This was a class move by New Orleans who originally dropped the veteran running back following the 2008 campaign.  Of course the Saints have much to prove after going 2-3 down the stretch while struggling in both victories.  I love the CONFIDENCE shown by Saints head coach Sean Payton who actually gave his players most of last week off.  One will never forget that infamous Monday Night affair which marked the Saints return to the Superdome following Hurricane Katrina which destroyed the city and there will be plenty of raw emotion inside that building late this afternoon.  One could make a strong argument that the Saints would not have survived in New Orleans if not gaining the services of quarterback Drew Brees who has done an amazing job with local HUMANITARIAN causes off the field of play which has created an extremely strong bond between Brees and the community.  Brees set an NFL record for completion percentage (.706) and today will face an Arizona defense that was shredded a week ago (45 points allowed) coughing up a sizeable early lead.   Going into last weekend Arizona had no less than FIVE INJURED players and they have had a “short week” to prepare.  Last weekend there was no way Arizona should have been extended into overtime as veteran kicker Neil Rackers missed a very short field goal attempt.  One has to wonder about the mental capacity of Rackers this week which gives the Saints an edge in special teams.  Here is a 74-PERCENT SYSTEM (34-12 past decade) that goes AGAINST road underdogs of 3’-to-10 points like Arizona off an upset win as an underdog, and facing an opponent off a road loss.  But the big news from the database is the fact that New Orleans is 6-0 ATS the past two years when shaking off an outright road setback.  Do I hear 7-0 ATS anyone?!

 

 

COLLEGE BASKETBALL REVENGE GAME OF THE YEAR “COVERS” ON 1/16 (95-93 thriller)

 

TONIGHT’S “4 UNIT” REDZONE COLLEGE BASKETBALL BEST BET (Idaho State +4 at home versus Weber State in a 9:05 eastern tipoff):  To give you an idea how intense this rivalry is they call this Big Sky Conference clash the “border war”.  One year ago in front of their own home fans Idaho State lost on what was basically a SCORING MISTAKE which is one of the reasons why they “circled” tonight’s rematch on their calendar as soon as the schedule came out.  In that bitter home setback a year ago a player from Weber State was allowed to stay in the game even though technically he fouled out.  That player from Weber State actually nailed a pair of critical THREE POINT shots in crunch time when he should have been sitting on the bench.  I am fully aware that Idaho State checks in tonight with an awful 4-13 overall record but one can argue that they had one of the nation’s toughest pre-conference schedules.  All Idaho State had to do in the “non” league portion of their schedule is play on the ROAD against quality opposition (Iowa State, Bradley, Brigham Young, Utah State, Notre Dame, Utah, Southern California, Oregon) who have a long term track record of success in conference’s way above the Big Sky in overall talent.  What makes Idaho State a lethal home underdog late tonight surrounds the fact that they have hit at least 70-PERCENT from the free-throw line in 12 of the past 17 outings.  Despite an overall record that appears to be a disaster Idaho State has actually WON THE REBOUNDING BATTLE by an average of nearly one board per contest.  This team has also hit near 36% of their long range THREE POINT opportunities (120 of 335) which is not all that bad.  Idaho State if coming off a hotly contested road game at one of the Big Sky’s league leaders and the Bengals actually trailed by just two points with less than 2-minutes left on the clock. As mentioned at the top of this analysis Idaho State was robbed at home in this rivalry a year ago which saw Weber State win both clashes.  That actually snapped a run of 10 consecutive games in this bitter series where the clubs alternated wins-and-losses.  Due to the unusual circumstances which Idaho State lost at home to their main rivals last campaign, this is my college basketball “revenge game of the year”

 

NFL WILDCARD PLAYOFF GAME OF THE YEAR COVERS

The opening week of the NFL playoffs wrapped up with the Wildcard System Game of the Year as Arizona (+2’) won OUTRIGHT in a memorable 51-45 overtime shootout which saw the Cardinals both blow a sizeable early lead along with a short field goal attempt at the end of regulation.  But the incredible 22-3 System successfully COVERED the spread yet again

 

TODAY’S “4 UNIT” REDZONE NFL BEST BET (Cardinals +2’ at home versus Packers in a 4:40 eastern kickoff on FOX):  Green Bay’s first team has outscored Arizona 71-10 in five quarters during both the preseason and regular campaign.  In addition both of yesterday’s “rematches” from week-seventeen resulted in broom job.  But the bottom line is that it is costly to overlook an Arizona squad that defied the odds a year ago and went all the way to the Super Bowl.  It may seem like an eternity but the national assumption a year ago at this time was that Arizona was not capable of winning on the road, so they went to Carolina and shocked the Panthers as a prohibitive playoff underdog.  We have had a radical line swing in this NFC Wildcard contest which actually saw Arizona open at most offshore locations as a 2’ point favorite.  Due to word this morning that Cardinals star wide receiver Anquan Boldin (ankle/knee) most likely would not be in the starting lineup, the home team suddenly became a sizeable underdog.  But according to star quarterback Kurt Warner his Cardinals planned for today’s game WITHOUT Boldin being involved so I am not going to overreact to that injury.  After doing some serious digging I can confirm that 4 of the 5 Arizona players who were on the injured list WILL participate late this afternoon including star defensive back Dominique Rodgers-Cromartie who was carted off the field a week ago with what appeared to be a season-ending knee problem.  In my mind the bigger news is that Green Bay’s defensive secondary is NOT 100% healthy including star Charles Woodson who is tied for the NFL lead with 9 interceptions.  Woodson left last Sunday’s contest late in the second quarter with a sore shoulder and he is the key cog of the Packers stop-unit.  With Boldin most likely out of the lineup, Woodson will be assigned to Arizona’s Larry Fitzgerald so his overall health is critical.  I will admit that Green Bay has responded well to their new defensive coordinator Dom Capers who has always been successful in that area dating back to his days directing the initial campaigns of the Carolina franchise.  One thing Capers loves to do out of the “3-4” alignment is employ the BLITZ but Kurt Warner is one of the league’s best signal callers reading those blitz packages.  According to Warner he is more confident of making plays against the Packers secondary as opposed to that of San Francisco who defeated him in a Monday Night regular season telecast.  Warner is participating in his 12th playoff game and there is a shot at age 38 that this will be his final postseason push.  Of course this pick is dangerous since Green Bay is on a current 7-1 tear where the passing ratio of quarterback Aaron Rodgers has been nothing short of spectacular.  But in the beginning of this season Rodgers was constantly harassed operating behind a shaky offensive line that repeatedly gave him very little time to throw the football and the fact of the matter is that Arizona’s stop-unit has a grand total of 45 SACKS.  On the other side of the football Arizona led the entire NFL in “red zone” offense with 38 touchdowns in 53 opportunities (70-PERCENT efficiency inside the opposition 20-yard line).  Prior to last Sunday’s home game which was played late in the afternoon, the Cardinals were informed that the possibility of gaining an opening-round bye was remote which caused head coach Ken Whisenhunt to play very CONSERVATIVE.  Thus I am not going to overreact to last week’s rout by the Packers who played to win in the desert southwest.  With Arizona operating a “vanilla” attack giving away no secrets last Sunday, they are actually in an advantageous spot late this afternoon.  This has been a staggering campaign for the Cardinals franchise who did NOT lose games on consecutive weeks since way back in 1975.  In addition Arizona is only the second Super Bowl loser in the past nine years to actually make the playoffs in the following season.  Turning to the database here is an UNDEFEATED database angle which sees Arizona 6-0 ATS/HOME the past three years after scoring 3-or-less opening half points in the prior game.  Here is a whopping 22-3 SYSTEM (88% last decade involving a pair of quality team that have won 60-to-75% of their games) which plays ON teams like Arizona revenging a loss where they scored less than two touchdowns, with a near pick-em line of +3/-3 which is the case today   

 

5 UNIT BCS CHAMPIONSHIP BOMBSHELL WINS

2010 PREMIUM COLLEGE FOOTBALL CONCLUDES 12-5

ALABAMA covers the BCS Championship

 

 

12-5 PREMIUM COLLEGE FOOTBALL IN 2010

 

--1/1 “5 UNIT” Bowl event Northwestern/Auburn OVER (55) WINS in a 38-35 shootout

--1/1 ROSE BOWL BEST BET Ohio State (+4) OUTRIGHT 26-17 upset of Oregon

--1/1 BOWL PARLAY Florida State (+3) OUTRIGHT 33-21 upset in Bobby Bowden’s finale

--1/1 BOWL PARLAY Penn State (-1) COVERS in a 19-17 triumph over LSU

--1/2 BEST BET East Carolina (+7’) COVERS in an overtime 20-17 thriller

--1/2 Cotton Bowl Total Mississippi/Oklahoma State UNDER (51) WINS in very low scoring 21-7 contest (23 point cover)

--1/2 South Florida (-7) COVERS in a 27-3 rout of Northern Illinois

--1/2 Liberty Bowl Total Arkansas/East Carolina UNDER (63’) WINS with ease in 20-17 overtime game (26’ point cover)

--1/4 TCU (-7) loses outright 17-10 in the Fiesta Bowl

--1/4 Fiesta Bowl Boise State/Texas Christian UNDER (54) WINS with ease in very low scoring 17-10 contest (27 point cover)

--1/5 Georgia Tech (-5’) loses outright versus Iowa in the Orange Bowl (first time in 2 years Yellow Jackets fail to cover against quality defensive opponent)

--1/5 Proposition first score field goal or safety (+180) fails

--1/6 Troy State/Central Michigan UNDER (63) fails in 44-41 Double-OT shootout  (1:17 away from covering in regulation)

--1/7 Special “5 UNIT” BCS Championship Best Bet Texas/Alabama OVER (23) in the first half WINS with 30 combined points scored in the opening half

--1/7 BCS Championship Alabama (-4) COVERS in 37-21 triumph versus Texas

--1/7 BCS Championship Texas/Alabama UNDER (17’) in second-half fails to cover

--1/7 BCS Championship Proposition special teams or defensive touchdown (+135) WINS

 

Ranked #1 NFL and #2 college football for the entire regular season up against the nation’s elite handicappers as professionally monitored at (www.sports-watch.com)

 

30-19 NFL PREMIUM WAGERS SINCE MID-DECEMBER

 

58-PERCENT ALL PREMIUM FOOTBALL (1602115) FINAL NINETY-SEVEN DAYS

 

 

NEW YEARS SWEEP

Including special “5 UNIT” bombshell Northwestern/Auburn OVER (55) in a 38-35 shootout

Plus a ROSE BOWL BEST BET as Ohio State (+4) wins OUTRIGHT

 

Football Best Bet sides-and-totals incredible “17-6” in month of December

Ranked #1 NFL and #2 college football for the entire regular season up against the nation’s elite handicappers as professionally monitored at (www.sports-watch.com)

 

 

3-1 BOWL POSTSEASON “5 UNIT” BEST BET BOMBSHELLS

Including the BCS Championship OVER (23) WINNING on 1/7 as combined 30 points were tallied in the opening half

 

 

ALABAMA COVERS THE BCS CHAMPIONSHIP

 

COLLEGE FOOTBALL NATIONAL CHAMPIONSHIP (Alabama -4 versus Texas in the BCS Championship kicking off at 8:35 eastern on ABC-TV):  They say you cannot handicap turnovers which are critical in postseason football contests such as this.  In 492 career carries Alabama’s Heisman Trophy winning rusher Mark Ingram has turned the football over just ONCE.  In 314 career pass attempts Alabama quarterback Greg McElroy has thrown only FOUR interceptions which means that the well coached Crimson Tide do NOT commit critical mistakes.  After five consecutive years where the BCS Championship produced upsets, the FAVORITE has successfully covered the spread in consecutive seasons and I expect that pattern to continue.  So far the BCS-sanctioned Bowls have seen underdogs pull off outright upsets except for one squad (Florida) that just happens to operate out of the highly-regarded Southeastern Conference.  I will be the first to admit that the SEC as a whole is not as solid as in recent seasons and their overall Bowl record this campaign (5-4) is certainly reflective of that.  But the fact of the matter is that Alabama and Florida have proven to be a step ahead of the entire college football field since their respective head coaches are the best RECRUITERS in the game.  There is certainly plenty of motivation for the Crimson Tide as they try to wipe out memories of last year’s horrible Sugar Bowl performance where they were dominated by an opponent out of a “non” BCS aligned conference.  In addition tonight is a rare shot for Alabama to finally defeat Texas on the field as dating all the way back to 1902 they have gone “0-7-1” against the Longhorns (last encounter back in 1982).  The key to this selection has to do with “the pits” where games are ultimately won or lost on both the offensive and defensive lines.  Since they had to replace 3 offensive line starters it was originally thought that Alabama would struggle on offense but that line was good enough to produce a Heisman Trophy campaign by running back Mark Ingram.  For the most part Ingram sealed his Heisman by rushing for 113 yards and three touchdowns in that shocking SEC Championship game upset of Florida where he had a game changing 69 yard catch-and-run.  The Crimson Tide put up 32 points against the nation’s top-ranked Division I-A defense which was allowing less than 10 points per contest.  Of course Alabama’s defense as expected was also spectacular during the regular season permitting just 11 points per contest and that stop-unit certainly neutralized Florida star quarterback Tim Tebow.  Tonight on ABC the announcing crew is going to be talking a lot about 354-POUND Alabama senior defensive tackle Terrence Cody who has one more chance to perform on the national stage. What I like most about Alabama’s defense is that they “disguise” coverages similar to what the NFL New England Patriots have done for years at the professional level.  I can confirm that a substantial amount of offshore money has been plunked down on Texas since they have marquee quarterback Colt McCoy who has received non-stop national press coverage.  But in the Big 12 Championship game against a top-notch defense McCoy was sacked NINE different times.  Even though he does not receive much national coverage Alabama’s starting quarterback just happens to be UNDEFEATED as a starter dating back to his high school days inside the state of Texas.  Greg McElroy operated on the high school level for three years behind future Missouri star signal caller Chase Daniel and then served as a caddy for two years behind John Parker Wilson at Alabama.  To make a long story short McElroy used his time on the sideline to be more strategic and has made himself a cerebral player.  After some ugly moments in the traditional Iron Bowl rivalry against Auburn, McElroy literally saved the Tide’s season leading a 15-play/79 yard drive that featured 3 different “third down conversions” and was capped by a 4-yard touchdown pass with a mere 84-seconds remaining on the clock.  Flush with CONFIDENCE McElroy was on fire early against Florida opening the game with an 18-yard completion and deftly mixed pass and run on the drive which led to immediate points on the scoreboard.  Of course McElroy is not as popular a name as McCoy which has helped create some “value” in tonight’s line even though the Tide are favored.  I will admit that in the last 7 BCS National Championship clashes, the team with a Heisman Trophy winner has ended up losing 6 different times.  Even though Alabama’s Mark Ingram was this year’s winner, he is NOT a quarterback which is rare for the Heisman award which almost exclusively is given to signal callers annually.  In the Sun Bowl contest featuring Heisman hopeful Toby Gerhart, the Stanford running back gained more than 100 yards on the ground so I for one am not worried about Ingram this evening.  I am aware that Texas defended the run better than anyone in the country permitting just 62 yards per contest, but consider that most Big 12 Conference offenses operate out of the pass-oriented “spread” attack so that aforementioned figure is a bit skewed.  The fact of the matter is that Texas and the end of last season lost a pair of defensive linemen and a tackle to the NFL draft.  That spells big trouble this evening as the Longhorns attempt to defend an Alabama run-oriented attack which tends to wear down the opposition by the time the fourth quarter arrives.   The last time Alabama was in the “preseason” Top-10 was back in the year 2000 and now a decade later are in the National Championship.  At long last a proud Alabama program finally broke through with a Heisman Trophy winner and they are way overdue to walk away with a National Championship trophy.  As mentioned earlier Nick Saban is one of the game’s best RECRUITERS and it comes as no shock that in a very short period of time he has lifted Alabama to elite status

 

It was a New Years Day SWEEP highlighted by a “5 UNIT” Best Bet event (38-35 shootout in the Outback Bowl)

 

TODAY’S SPECIAL “5 UNIT” REDZONE BEST BET TOTAL (Northwestern versus Auburn OVER 54’ in an 11 AM eastern kickoff on ESPN):  It was a little more than one year ago when Auburn was shutout by bitter rival Alabama which ended up sealing the fate of head coach Tom Tuberville who was fired.  The Tigers entered this campaign with a brand new coaching staff which included offensive coordinator Gus Malzahn.  To make a long story short Malzahn was the architect of Tulsa’s attack that led all of college football in total offense both in 2007 and 2008.  Malzahn’s elaborate schemes made an instant impact in the “non” conference portion of Auburn’s schedule when the Tigers went OVER the total in the initial 4 contests.  Most of you reading this analysis know that the Southeastern Conference is known for its physical defense which is one of the main reasons why Auburn played above the spot just twice during league play.  The bottom line is that the Tigers this morning are seeking to play OVER in every “non league” outing this entire season which includes a massive 63 point late season effort against Furman in a contest that was not on the big board.  Senior quarterback Chris Todd was ranked 4th in the SEC Conference with 21 touchdown passes while senior Ben Tate also had a #4 league ranking with more than 1,200 rush yards on the ground.  Auburn for the entire regular season averaged an eye opening 33 points and 432 yards per outing.  But the once “vanilla” offense of Auburn is not the only main factor in this special “5 Unit” selection as Northwestern just happens to operate with a high-tempo “spread” offense led by quarterback Mike Kafka who passed for 2,900 yards in the air.  Due to an injury Kafka stepped in a year ago and ran for a Big Ten quarterback record 217 yards in a single contest.  In 2009 Northwestern’s signal caller not only passed for 12 touchdowns, but also ran for 7 scores.  What really impressed me about the Wildcats quarterback who has excellent ground skills along with efficient passing numbers is that Kafka had a conference-low 4 interceptions even though he led the league in attempts during the Big Ten portion of the schedule.  Getting back to Auburn quarterback Chris Todd he destroyed “non” conference opposition ripping 3 different team for a combined THIRTEEN touchdown tosses.  Todd had better have a big effort today because the Tigers defense actually allowed during the regular season an SEC league high 27 points per contest.  Going into the record books I see that Northwestern’s only previous Bowl meeting with an SEC opponent resulted in a high scoring 48-28 shootout a dozen years ago.  The Wildcats are also involved in a 66-PERCENT SYSTEM (56-29 past five years in a battle between a pair of “winning” squads).  This system takes teams like Northwestern after going below the posted spot by 49+ combined points the past seven outings OVER the total.  To put this total in perspective Auburn has played OVER in every “non” league game this season and has one of college football’s most successful offensive coordinators, while Northwestern operates out of a high-tempo “spread” formation sure to keep the scoreboard operator plenty busy

 

ROSE BOWL BEST BET WIN (Ohio State OUTRIGHT upset New Years Day)

 

TODAY'S "3 UNIT" REDZONE BEST BET COLLEGE FOOTBALL SIDE (Ohio State +4 versus Oregon in the Rose Bowl Game kicking off at 5:05 eastern on ABC-TV):  Due to what was a disastrous Bowl campaign a year ago, the Big 10 Conference has suffered a sagging national reputation.  To make a long story short the Big 10 entrant in the past three Rose Bowl contests have had no chance due to the fact that USC was involved.  For those that have been on the Trojans over the past decade in high profile games, you know that head coach Pete Carroll does "not let up on the pedal" so to speak.  Even though the Pac 10 Conference is having a rough postseason, it comes as no personal shock that USC already successfully covered the spread in their 2009 Bowl outing.  But the mere fact that USC is essentially not playing a "home" game inside the Roase Bowl on New Years Day actually gives the Big Ten entrant a fighting chance.  This is Ohio State's first Rose Bowl since a WIN against a Pac 10 opponent back in 1996.  The Buckeyes have lost 3 consecutive BCS Bowl outings but their defense (just 12 ppg allowed) has the ability to slow an Oregon attack that is putting up 37 per pop.  Much to my personal chagrin we had an "offense versus defense" matchup in the Bowls yesterday where the superior defensive squad (Air Force) won outright against an offensive favorite (Houston) and this particular contest has a similar feel.  I will admit that Oregon has won 10 of their most recent 11 outings where they essentially "outscored" the opposition.  But it was way back in week-one when Oregon's high-octane attack was handcuffed on the road by Boise State who also is appearing in a BCS-sanctioned Bowl.  Another negative regarding Oregon is the fact that they no longer have veteran Mike Belotti as their head coach.  We saw last night in the Peach Bowl Tennessee get dominated by a Virginia Tech squad led by a veteran head coach.  There is no question that Lane Kiffin has added energy to the Tennessee program, but last night was a learning experience for him as a "first year" head coach preparing a squad for a postseason Bowl.  Oregon's Chip Kelly also is a "first year" head coach who has never led a contingent into a postseason Bowl contest.  The Ducks have not been to a Rose Bowl game since way back in 1995 when they promptly LOST on the scoreboard.  To make a long story short Ohio State desperately wants to win this game after suffering 3 consecutive BCS Bowl setbacks including a pair in the high profile national championship game.  As per normal for this school the Buckeyes have an outstanding defense that is allowing just 12 points and 261 total yards per game.  That Ohio State stop-unit also did NOT allow a 100-yard rusher against them all season.  My database research indicates that the Buckeyes are an eye popping 7-0 ATS this year after a game where they forced 3+ turnovers.  Ohio State also has COVERED SIX IN A ROW on the road against "winning" opponents!

  

 

MONDAY PREMIUM FOOTBALL 9-3 FINAL FIVE WEEKS (including 5-0 sides)

23-10 all premium service NFL Primetime TV sides-and-totals final twelve weeks

 

 

MONDAY NFL FOOTBALL REGULAR SEASON FINALE SWEEP (12/28)

An incredible “24-13” overall Monday Football performance wrapped up with the heavy underdog Bears (+8’) stunning the Vikings OUTRIGHT in a 36-30 overtime thriller.  Monday’s Proposition wager on Bears kicker Robbie Gould OVER (5’) point cashed a winning ticket in the OPENING QUARTER

 

TONIGHT’S “3 UNIT” REDZONE NFL BEST BET (Bears +8’ at home versus Vikings in a 6:35 eastern kickoff):  Of course the big story involving Minnesota in the past week has surrounded the supposed feud between Bret Favre and his head coach.  Chicago should find some inspiration this evening after hearing that Vikings head coach Brad Childress will pull Favre once the team has a substantial lead.  I do not have to tell you what happened to the undefeated Colts when they gave Peyton Manning an early hook on Sunday.  One could make a very strong argument that tonight is Chicago’s own personal Super Bowl since this is their home finale and is being broadcast on the national stage.  Next week Chicago will wrap up what has been a deplorable campaign at Detroit against an opponent who has lost more games since mid-2007 than any other squad in NFL history.  While the Bears will have problems focusing against a Divisional opponent they do not respect, they will have complete focus this evening as they attempt to damage the playoff seeding of a hated opponent.  For those of you who feel Chicago who is on a disastrous 0-7 ATS slide has no chance of making us some money this evening, consider that Minnesota just happens to be an awful 1-7 SU in their most recent eight visits to Solider Field.  Even though the weather conditions are not supposed to be all that bad foe this time of the year, temperatures are forecast to be in the low 20’s which actually has some significance statistically.  The great Bret Favre is 0-7 in his last seven ROAD starts (3 touchdowns versus 13 interceptions) when the game time temperature is below the 39-degree mark.  In “post Thanksgiving” starts dating back to 2005 Favre also has a negative record (12-14) throwing twice as many interceptions as touchdown passes in that span.  Turning to the other side of the football field Chicago is UNDEFEATED in front of their own HOME fans (10-0) the past ten times the game time temperature at Solider Field has been below the freezing mark and that certainly is the case with tonight’s last kickoff time.  Following Sunday’s results we now know who all of the playoff entrants are in the NFC but there are still questions regarding both seeding and home field advantage.  With New Orleans dropping their second consecutive home contest yesterday, Minnesota still has a shot at grabbing a possible top NFC seed, but that has also led to some line inflation this evening.  That line has shot up from an opening figure of 7’ points since Chicago has been decimated by defensive injuries and both of their starting safeties may miss this evening.  Chicago’s defense has played most of the way without vocal leader Brian Urlacher who made his teammates accountable for mistakes made.  Bears defensive tackle Tommie Harris (knee) may not make it back on the field for the remainder of the season.  Of course Jay Cutler’s maiden season in Chicago has been a disaster as he currently leads the entire NFL with 25 interceptions.  Even though Chicago has been a financial disaster for bettors having failed to cover the spread in 7 consecutive games, my database research indicates that there are two very strong SYSTEMS that support the Bears.  Here is a 63-PERCENT SYSTEM (125-76 since 1983) that plays ON slow starting underdogs (+3’/+10’) like Chicago outscored by an average of at least 5 points per game in the opening half, after 3 consecutive games where the offense has put 17-or-less points on the scoreboard.  Here is a 70-PERCENT SYSTEM (65-30 since 1983) that plays ON home underdogs like Chicago off a road blowout loss of at least two touchdowns, in the month of December. To add a bit more fuel to the fire Chicago is an excellent 10-2 ATS/HOME long term when REVENGING a road loss against an opponent of at least 14 points in margin.  With Chicago losing one month ago by a 36-10 count at the Metrodome, that 10-2 spread angle involving the Bears applies tonight. The bottom line is that all of the national attention in this Monday Football season finale will be placed on both the Vikings and Bret Favre which will ultimately motivate Chicago.  I will wrap up this analysis with a late breaking INJURY note as Minnesota star defensive tackle Pat Williams will NOT be in the starting lineup.  The major impact of that injury is that Minnesota will not be as strong defending the run this evening.  If Chicago mounts any type of rushing attack, much pressure will be taken off the shoulders of troubled quarterback Jay Cutler

 

 

OPENING BOWL “5 UNIT” EVENT WINS ON CHRISTMAS EVE

With a combined 40% of their offensive touchdown potential sidelined, Nevada’s high octane offense was held to just 10 points which helped UNDER the total come through in a 45-10 Hawaii Bowl rout

 

TONIGHT’S SPECIAL “5 UNIT” REDZONE BEST BET COLLEGE FOOTBALL TOTAL (Nevada versus Southern Methodist UNDER 72’ in a Hawaii Bowl 8:05 eastern kickoff on ESPN):  Due to injury and academics, Nevada will be WITHOUT a pair of 1,000 yard rushers who combined on 54% of the team’s yards on the ground along with 40-PERCENT of the offensive touchdowns.  It is easy to see why the oddsmakers posted the highest total of the Bowl season to date since we have a pair of awful defenses involved.  Southern Methodist is equally bad both defending the run (#88) and pass (#82) with extremely low national rankings in each category.  It was one year ago when Nevada ranked dead LAST in Division I-A defending the pass and amazingly in 2009 finished the regular season “second-to-last” against the pass.  To make matters even worse Nevada’s second-year defensive coordinator has already LEFT the team in order to become head coach at Portland State.  The Wolfpack also have major personnel issues on their stop-unit as both a linebacker and safety has been SUSPENDED for this game due to off-the-field violations.  At this point you must be wondering why I am crazy enough to be personally pounding UNDER the total even though Southern Methodist head coach June Jones (run and shoot) and Nevada leader Chris Ault (Pistol) operate elaborate and highly successful offensive sets.  The main reason why I love the UNDER has to do with serious issues involving Nevada’s record setting offensive backfield that saw 3 different players run for more than 1,000 yards on the ground.  One of those running backs Vai Taua ranked #9 in the country averaging 122 rush yards per contest.  It was Taua (10 rushing touchdowns) that stepped in a year ago and rambled for more than 1,500 yards on the ground in relief of injured star Luke Lippincott who was the Western Athletic Conference rushing champ in 2007.  Lippincott was granted an extra year of eligibility in 2009 but the senior has played his last game due to toe surgery.  Both Lippincott and Taua (academics) are sitting OUT the Hawaii Bowl which is going to put a ton of extra pressure on star quarterback Kaepernick who came into this campaign MINUS both of his top 2008 wide receivers who graduated.  As for SMU their quarterback Kyle Pardon made only five starts after relieving injured starter Bo Levi Mitchell.  To make a long story short the Mustangs are NOT masters of coach June Jones’ infamous run-and-shoot attack yet even though they do have a #28 national ranking in the passing department.  Tonight marks the first time in 25 long years that SMU has been in a postseason Bowl game which means they have an extra contest to build confidence for next campaign.  Even though the SMU defensive “3-4” alignment did not produce the desired statistical results, the fact of the matter is that they have a lot of athletes at linebacker which offsets a lack of bodies on the line.  The Mustangs have a lot of speed on defense according their coach and tonight they get to face a severely “limited” offensive opponent WITHOUT two players who combined to account for 40-PERCENT of the squad’s touchdowns.  My database research indicates that Southern Methodist long term has gone a staggering 7-0 UNDER/ROAD against quality offensive opponents who average at least 31 points per contest.  Here is a 77-PERCENT SYSTEM (34-10 past decade exclusive to BOWL games) which takes teams like SMU and Nevada in a non-conference affair featuring a pair of “second tier” Division I-A conferences UNDER the total

 

COLLEGE BOWL GIFT CHRISTMAS EVE (Southern Methodist 45-10 OUTRIGHT rout)

 

COLLEGE FOOTBALL INTANGIBLE SIDE (Southern Methodist +12’ versus Nevada in an 8:05 eastern kickoff from the Hawaii Bowl on ESPN):  Nevada football had already gained a bad reputation of poor fan support for postseason Bowl games which is one of the reasons why they were dispatched to Hawaii on Christmas Eve.  Nevada’s negative reputation is not going to improve in 2009 as they have sold only 100 of their ticket allotment which totaled more than 5,500.  To make a long story short Nevada is going to have hardly any fan support inside a Stadium where the locals are going to be rooting for head coach June Jones who has reached legendary status on the island.  Hawaii was a disastrous 0-12 on the football field in 1998 which was one year before Jones arrived and immediately turned the program around with his infamous “run and shoot” offensive attack.  Following 2007 when he led the Rainbow Warriors to a BCS postseason Bowl, Jones bolted the program after the Hawaii administration failed to upgrade facilities and provide the needed financial incentives.  June Jones arrived at SMU a year ago and had problems reviving a once proud program that at the end of the campaign had lost 21 of its last 22 games.  Despite a lousy 2008 overall record (1-11) Jones still found reason for optimism as 4 of the 8 setback in conference play were by 7-or-less points.  An extremely young contingent also gained valuable experience which parlayed into a 2009 season (7-5) which saw the squad make the nation’s biggest turnaround.  Southern Methodist very quietly has been one of college football’s best stories as they are back in the postseason Bowl business for the first time in 25 YEARS.  Most of you reading this analysis will remember when a scandal-ridden Mustangs program received the NCAA “death penalty” which shut down the entire program in both 1987 and 1988.  Locally Bowl officials were disappointed that hometown Hawaii did not qualify for the postseason, but they are thrilled to welcome back Mustangs coach June Jones who spent an entire decade reviving the Rainbow Warriors program.  As mentioned above in the Best Bet totals analysis Nevada who set an NCAA record with 3 different 1,000 rushers will be WITHOUT two of them.  Senior rusher Luke Lippincott (toe surgery) and Kai Taua (academics) will not play after accounting for 54% of Nevada’s rushing yards and 40% of the team touchdowns.  To make matters worse Nevada SUSPENDED a pair of defenders (linebacker and safety) due to off-the-field issues.  Even the coaching staff took a hit as Nevada’s defensive coordinator has already LEFT the program to become new head coach at Portland State.  Here is a 77-PERCENT SYSTEM (30-9 the past decade in non-conference play) which plays AGAINST heavy favorites like Nevada (-10’/-21 points) who have won 60-to-80% of their outings, against an opponent with a winning overall record.  That system supports SMU

 

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