MARQUEE BASKETBALL BEST BETS (4-Units or higher) UNDEFEATED
for the month of March at 5-0-1
SPECIAL 5-UNIT
ESPN-TV EVENT COVERS MONDAY
The fourth college basketball “5 Unit” bombshell of the
season cashes Monday in a very unique situation (60-53 final score)
TONIGHT’S SPECIAL “5 UNIT”
NATIONAL-TV COLLEGE REDZONE BEST BET (William+Mary +9
versus Old Dominion in the Colonial Conference Championship game tipping off at
7:05 eastern on ESPN): The bottom line
is that this pick involves an almost unheard of handicapping situation which is
why I am pounding underdog William+Mary both plus the
generous points and on the “money line” (+350).
It is amazing that William+Mary is one of only
5 “original” teams at the Division I level that has NEVER made the NCAA
Tournament and of course with an upset win this evening the Tribe would finally
be eligible for the Big Dance. Back in
2008 William+Mary actually made it all the way to the
Colonial Conference Championship game but this time around they are on an
“even” playing field with their opponent.
Two years ago William+Mary was playing their
“fourth game in four days” and simply ran out of gas in the Championship tilt
but tonight courtesy of an opening round “bye” the Tribe are having to play on
their third game of the postseason tournament.
It is understandable that the oddsmakers have
posted Old Dominion as a prohibitive favorite tonight since they are the #1
seed and traditionally favorites have done very well in the championship
tilt. But the fact of the matter is that
Old Dominion in a semifinal game yesterday was extended into OVERTIME in a
contest where they had to exert a lot of energy by coming back from a massive
double-digit deficit in the second half.
Due to that both emotional and long game yesterday, one can argue that William+Mary has a decided
advantage tonight as they facing a mentally exhausted opponent. For those of you who may not be aware William+Mary for the first time in SCHOOL HISTORY has
“double digit” wins this season on the ROAD including a pair of shocking upsets
at Wake Forest and Maryland where the oddsmakers were
giving them 12’+ points to work with. William+Mary comes into this championship game feeling very
good about themselves after pulling out a TWO point thriller yesterday even
though the squad tallied only 16 points in the entire second-half. To make a long story short William+Mary plays together as “a team” as they are both
selfless and trust each other. In my
opinion it is “destiny” time for William+Mary as they
not only won a two-point thriller in the semifinals yesterday, there opponent
Northeastern actually missed SEVEN game tying or game winning chance on their
final possession. Even though Old
Dominion is a #1 seed in this tournament my research indicates that they are
only 9-19 ATS long term in “neutral court” setups such as this. Here is a 70-PERCENT SYSTEM (61-27 past
twelve years) which plays ON underdogs like William+Mary
who have played below the posted total by more than 6 points in 3 consecutive
games, against an opponent who in a seven-game stretch have played above the
total by 42+ combined points. That
system favors William+Mary who is
a stunning 12-3 ATS this season when cast as an underdog. Due to the reasons stated at the top of this
analysis segment I actually expect William+Mary to
pull off the outright upset and advance to the NCAA Tournament for the first
time in school history
*****”4-1” Basketball
Best Bet weekend where all hardwood premium releases produced a stellar “10-3”
mark*****
“8-5” all college postseason
tournament wagers so far
*****MONTHLY Package extends through NCAA
Championship and more (4/5)*****
8-0 SATURDAY PREMIUM SWEEP
--“4 Unit” NATIONAL-TV ESPN monster Louisville (+1) COVERS in
a 78-68 rout of #1 ranked Syracuse (final game at Freedom Hall)
--“4 Unit” TOURNAMENT monster Loyola-Marymount (-1’) COVERS
in a 84-76 West Coast Conference triumph versus San Francisco
--“4 Unit” TOTALS monster Washington State/Oregon OVER (134)
WINS in a 74-66 Pac-Ten contest
--CBS-TV Total West Virginia/Villanova UNDER (152) WINS
with ease 68-66 despite OVERTIME
--Big South Conference Championship Winthrop (+9’)
OUTRIGHT upset at Coastal Carolina on ESPN2
--Ohio Valley Conference Championship Murray State (-4) COVERS
in a 62-51 win against Morehead State on ESPN2
--SEC Network Alabama (-5’) COVERS in a 73-61 home rout of Auburn
--NBA Pacers (+12’) COVER in a 113-105 late night
shootout at Suns
9-5-1 MARCH COLLEGE BEST BETS
--3/8 Special “5 Unit” NATIONAL-TV ESPN bombshell William+Mary (+9) COVERS in a 60-53 Colonial Championship
tussle
--3/8 ESPN Total William+Mary/Old
Dominion OVER (117) fails in a game with just 113 combined points scored
--3/7 CBS Total Florida/Kentucky OVER (141) misses by ONE
point in a 74-66 verdict
--3/7 Tournament Boston University (-2’) COVERS in a
70-63 road triumph from the America-East Conference
--3/6 “4 Unit” NATIONAL-TV ESPN monster Louisville (+1) COVERS
in a 78-68 rout of #1 ranked Syracuse (final game at Freedom Hall)
--3/6 “4 Unit” TOURNAMENT monster Loyola-Marymount (-1’)
COVERS in a 84-76 West Coast Conference triumph versus San Francisco
--3/6 “4 Unit” TOTALS monster Washington State/Oregon OVER
(134) WINS in a 74-66 Pac-Ten contest
--3/5 Georgia Southern (+1’) with six SENIORS on roster
suffer humiliating double-digit Southern Conference opening round tournament
loss
--3/4 “4 Unit” marquee Dayton (+4) PUSHES in 60-56
road contest where Dayton held a halftime lead at Richmond
--3/4 WAC Total New Mexico State/Nevada OVER (163) WINS
with ease in 100-92 shootout
--3/3 Alabama-Birmingham (-3) loses outright in home
finale as “4 year” losing streak against rival Memphis continued
--3/2 College Upset of Year Colorado (+5) OUTRIGHT at
Nebraska snapping 36-game conference road losing skid
--3/2 Opening
TOURNAMENT Best Bet Murray State (-20’) COVERS with ease in a 84-51 opening
round Ohio Valley Conference rout
--3/1 ESPN Total Georgetown/West Virginia UNDER (136’)
fails in a 81-68 contest
--3/1 ESPN Total Oklahoma/Texas OVER (145) WINS in a 87-76
shootout
8-5 COLLEGE POSTSEASON TOURNAMENT WAGERS
--3/8 BEST BET William+Mary
(+9) COVERS in a 60-53 Colonial Conference championship tilt
--3/8 BEST BET William+Mary/Old
Dominion OVER (117) fails in a game with just 113 combined points scored
--3/8 Oral Roberts (+3) fails to cover by ONE points in a
69-65 contest from the Summit League
--3/7 BEST BET Boston University (-2’) COVERS in a 70-63
road triumph from the America-East conference
--3/7 Loyola-Marymount (+12) fails to cover in a 77-62
West Coast Conference setback versus Gonzaga
--3/6 BEST BET Loyola-Marymount (-1’) COVERS with ease in
a 84-76 West Coast Conference quarterfinal
--3/6 Big South Championship Winthrop (+9’) OUTRIGHT road
upset
--3/6 Ohio Valley Championship Murray State (-4) COVERS
in a 62-51 triumph
--3/5 Georgia Southern (+1’) with six SENIORS on roster
suffer humiliating double-digit Southern Conference opening round loss
--3/4 Monmouth (+13’) COVERS in a
84-75 road contest which they actually led at halftime (Northeast Conference
quarterfinal)
--3/3 Lafayette (-7’) COVERS in a 73-65 home triumph from
the opening round of the Patriot League tournament
--3/2 Tennessee Tech/Austin Peay
OVER (150) fails in a Ohio Valley tournament opening
round game with 133 combined points scored
--3/2 BEST BET Murray State (-20’) COVERS in an opening
round 84-51 home blowout from the Ohio Valley tournament
*****MONTHLY Package extends through NCAA
Championship and more (4/5)*****
59-55 all PREMIUM sides+totals
in month of February
13-6
all college basketball BEST BETS in month of January
77-60 college regular season FOOTBALL in 2009
19-11
college football postseason BOWL releases in 2009/2010
146-128 all college BASKETBALL in 2008/2009
ALL “BEST BETS” 156-146 SINCE MONTH OF AUGUST
ALL PREMIUM COLLEGE BASKETBALL 18-13-1 IN MARCH
SUNDAY BEST BETS
The Florida/Kentucky CBS total came ONE point away from cashing the
ticket, however Boston University successfully COVERED the spread in a
postseason tournament Best Bet. Sunday’s
premium report was ruined by a are home failure by the Chicago Blackhawks (5-4
final score)
TODAY’S SPECIAL “5 UNIT” REDZONE
HOCKEY BEST BET (Blackhawks -170 at home versus Red Wings in a 12:35 eastern
faceoff broadcast nationally on NBC): It
was exactly one week ago when the USA/Canada Olympic hockey Gold Medal showcase
drew a bigger United States audience than any non-Olympic TV sports event
outside of the NFL and college football’s BCS Title game. Today marks the first network telecast for
the NHL since NBC drew that monster rating a week ago. I find it interesting that the league has
decided to “showcase” the Chicago Blackhawks the next pair of Sunday’s on NBC’s
“game of the week” which is very telling considering that both Pittsburgh and
Washington have the two most marketable players (Crosby, Ovechkin)
who are the two best scorers. The bottom
line is that the NHL and it’s network TV partner feel
that Chicago has suddenly become the most exciting team in the league to watch
as this franchise after a decade of futility suddenly is back among the NHL
elite. Today will mark the 82nd
consecutive HOME SELLOUT for the Blackhawks who have established record local
TV ratings and literally tripling sales of team merchandise. Chicago who has not hoisted the Stanley Cup
in nearly 50 years made a shocking playoff run to the Western Conference finals
a year ago and the team is currently among the “top four” in NHL total points,
goals and goals against. The Blackhawks’
speed and ability to control the puck in the offensive zone are the keys to
this young group which is now considered among the most talented and
entertaining teams to watch. A grand
total of SIX different Blackhawks made it to the Olympic Gold Medal game and
Jonathan Toews (21) who is the league’s youngest team
captain was named the best forward of the entire Olympic tournament. Fellow third-year forward Patrick Kane had a
pair of assists to the USA in the gold-medal game and a pair of goals in the
semifinal round. What excites me most
about the Blackhawks is that they lead the league in FEWEST shots-on-goal
allowed helping goaltenders Cristobal Huet (2.29 GAA)
and Antii Niemi (2.16) to
have a Top-10 NHL ranking. Chicago’s
resurgence began when they hired Hall-of-Famer and former Detroit head coach
Scotty Bowman as senior advisor of operations.
Bowman actually coached 9 different Stanley Cup winning teams and knows
what he is doing. The Blackhawks also
have brought back some of their former stars like Bobby Hull to the United
Center which is playing to 107-PERCENT of capacity averaging more than
21-thousand fans per game. NHL diehards
know that the mere fact that Detroit has been cast as a prohibitive underdog is
amazing when you consider that this team which is based in what is known as
“hockey town” has won 8 consecutive divisional titles and has been one of the
league’s best squads. To make a long
story shot Detroit this campaign is just battling to become eligible for the
postseason as they are for the moment barely clinging to a #8
and final playoff seed. The situation is
completely different for Chicago (43-16-5) who today is seeking to sweep a
4-game season series from their rivals.
Detroit just happens to be a disastrous 1-10 this year when revenging a
“close” loss (1 or less goals) against an opponent. Chicago just happens to be a mind boggling
14-1/HOME this year against poor defensive opponents and “17-3” the past three
campaigns at the United Center when off consecutive contests where the offense
tallied at least 4 goals. In NBC’s first
hockey telecast since the Olympics they have chosen Chicago as the “showcase”
squad which speaks volumes
SATURDAY MARQUEE BEST BET NATIONAL-TV WIN
8-0 premium sweep Saturday highlighted by a 78-68 ESPN televised win by
Louisville as they close Freedom Hall by dominating the nation’s #1 ranked
squad
TODAY’S “4 UNIT” REDZONE BEST BET
(Louisville +1 at home versus Syracuse in a 2:05 eastern tipoff broadcast on
ESPN): Considering that today is the
final game at Louisville’s Freedom Hall which has hosted Louisville basketball
since the mid-1950’s one could argue that ESPN should have had this clash as
the “hyped” primetime telecast. Louisville
has won roughly 80-PERCENT of their games at Freedom Hall which has given them
annually an excellent homecourt advantage as there is
literally not a bad seat in the house.
But more important than this being the Freedom Hall swansong is the fact
that Louisville can essentially assure themselves of
an NCAA at-large tournament bid this afternoon in a contest that is critical
for a squad that has been the model of inconsistency. Louisville’s problems began way back in the
summer when head coach Rick Pitino went public
regarding a multi-million dollar extortion attempt tied to an admitted sexual
encounter. Despite the Louisville
administration sticking by his side there were constant rumors when the season
began that Pitino would eventually bolt the program
for a return to the NBA. In the “non” conference portion of the schedule Louisville as a team
suffered a pair of shocking losses to the likes of Charlotte and Western
Carolina. Then there was the early
season 1-4 slide in Big East Conference play which put this program squarely on
the NCAA bubble. Even though Pitino has admitted to his team’s severe defensive
deficiencies like any marquee head coach he has his Cardinals playing their
best down the stretch even though Tuesday’s road loss at Marquette was a bit
surprising. The opening line for today’s
ESPN telecast opened at most offshore locales at a virtual “pick em” price which in itself was a shock considering that
Syracuse is currently ranked #1 in the country and is attempting to become the
first team from the Big East to go undefeated on the ROAD in 11 years. Another reason why this line was so strange
is the fact that Syracuse today is REVENGING a stunning home loss against
Louisville just last month so in my mind the oddsmakers
have made a loud statement. For those of
you who may not be aware Syracuse was actually
“unranked” when the initial preseason national poll was released and they were
picked to finish around the #6 mark in the Big East standings so this has been
a stunning campaign for the Orange who are now defying the odds. To put this situation in proper perspective
Syracuse is the first team in 20 years to go from unranked in the preseason all
the way up to a #1 national ranking. It
was exactly one week ago on a Saturday afternoon when we saw the #1 ranked
(Kansas) and #2 ranked squads (Kentucky) suffer upset losses on the ROAD and
one week later that is exactly where we find Syracuse. It is ironic that last
Saturday in an ESPN marquee primetime telecast Syracuse was the only
high-ranked squad to basically survive as they blew out Villanova even though
it was a home game. Despite the fact
that head coach Jim Boeheim has done an outstanding
job I personally have a problem with a “sheltered” schedule that has seen
Syracuse have the opportunity to have their FANS in attendance on foreign
hardwood. Basically the Orange played
“inside their home state” for the initial TWO MONTHS of the season including
“preseason” tournament games played at New York’s Madison Square Garden. Due to geographic advantages a very young
Syracuse squad was given time to gel WITHOUT having to take a long plane
ride. The longest trip made by the
Orange this season was to Chicago where a horrible Depaul
squad came a mere three-pointer away from pulling off
an outright upset. For those who may not remember 12 of the initial 16 Syracuse
games this season were played on their own home court. The bottom line is that due to the relative
small dimensions of Freedom Hall this is one of the very few games this season
where Syracuse will NOT have their own fans cheering from the stands. In this Syracuse/Louisville series the
Cardinals are actually on a current 6-1 ATS roll and I see that trend
continuing this afternoon
SATURDAY MARQUEE BEST BET POSTSEASON TOURNAMENT WIN
Loyola-Marymount continued one of the nation’s biggest
turnarounds with an 84-76 West Coast Conference Saturday victory
TONIGHT’S “4 UNIT” REDZONE BEST BET
TOURNAMENT BEST BET (Loyola-Marymount -1’ versus San Francisco in a 9:05 eastern
tipoff from the West Coast Conference Tournament that can be viewed on-line at
ESPN360.com): Even though San Francisco
(4) has a higher seed than Loyola-Marymount (5) it is interesting to see that
the lower seed has actually been cast as the favorite in the postseason
tournament contest being played in Las Vegas.
Last night Loyola-Marymount (-9) failed to cover an inflated spread in
part because they were facing a geographic rival. Another reason why they won outright but
failed to cover the spread last night was because Pepperdine entered the
contest (0-9-1 ATS) on a severe spread slide so the “law of averages” kicked
in. Obviously this evening we get one of
college basketball’s very quiet success stories at a substantially cheaper
price tag and I am taking full advantage.
Loyola Marymount has the most wins (17) since way back in the 1995/96
campaign and during the regular season was an excellent investment (10-5 ATS)
on the road. To put this in proper
perspective Marymount’s “13-game improvement” from last season is the second
biggest turnaround in the ENTIRE NATION as the Lions have taken advantage of
imported players from other programs.
Drew Viney was just elected to the “all
conference first team” and he originally signed with Oregon after a stellar
high school career. Marymount down the
stretch got back the services of injured import Larry Davis who actually spent
time at both North Carolina State and Seton Hall where he gained valuable
in-game experience. Both Drew Viney and Vernon Teel became just the 11th duo from
Loyola-Marymount to be honored on the “all west coast conference first
team”. For those who may not be aware Marymont this season stunned Notre Dame outright on the
road and they also defeated nationally ranked Gonzaga. As for San Francisco they come in with the
higher seeding (7-7 league record) only because they defeated Marymount twice
during the regular season which sets up a DOUBLE-REVENGE situation
tonight. San Francisco actually started
this season with a poor 3-9 record with one of the triumphs coming against a
Division II opponent. Here is a whopping
“24-5” SYSTEM (83% last twelve years) which plays AGAINST “neutral court” teams
like San Francisco (win percentage 40-to-49 on season) after beating the spread
by 36+ totals points in a five-game span.
As for Loyola Marymount they are 8-2 ATS this season when playing on
“short rest”. It was 20 years ago when
Loyola-Marymount made an emotional deep run in the NCAA Tournament following
the shocking death of star Hank Gathers in a West Coast Conference postseason
tournament tilt
SATURDAY MARQUEE BEST BET TOTALS WIN
Oregon closes out an 83-year run on their home floor with a
high scoring 74-66 contest
TONIGHT’S “4 UNIT” REDZONE BEST BET TOTAL
(Washington State at Oregon OVER 134 in a 8:05 eastern tipoff): This is the second Best Bet involving the
closure of a long-time facility as tonight marks the final regular season game
for Oregon at McArthur court as the school is ending an 83-YEAR run at that
facility. Even though it has been a
disastrous season for Oregon I am expecting them to close this building with a
wild and “wide open” affair just like the thrilling 91-89 DOUBLE-OVERTIME
shootout against Washington State played way back on New Years Eve. Most of you reading this analysis are
familiar with long time Washington State head coach Tony Bennett who in the
offseason bolted the program for more money and is now employed by Virginia in
the eastern time zone.
Bennett for years executed the slow-down and “half court” style of
offense which is why most Washington State totals were way down in the 120’s
and at times even lower. Even though the
Cougars are bring headed by OFFENSIVE oriented head coach Ken Bone who made a
name for himself by being part of the wide open Big Sky Conference, this team
has actually played below the spot EIGHT times in the most recent ten
outings. I want all of you to be aware
that in the past five games both Washington State (55 ppg)
and Oregon (62 ppg) have had severe offensive
problems. But be aware that the posted
total in the initial Cougars/Ducks season encounter was substantially higher
(145’) than it is this evening where we have excellent “value”. One of the keys to this selection is that
both teams have star offensive players that are breaking out of shooting slumps
down the stretch. Tonight is the final
home game for Oregon’s Tajuan Porter who just happens
to be the school’s all-time “three point” leader nailing 336 shots from behind
the arc. In a
recent stretch Porter went 6 entire games posting just “single digits” but he
exploded for 29 POINTS (7 of 9 from behind the arc) in a recent road triumph at
UCLA. Early this season Klay Thompson was actually LEADING THE NATION in scoring
but he has had a severe dropoff for Washington State
in the past three games (4-for-35 from the field). The bottom line is that this game has a pair
of “undervalued” sharpshooters seeking to end the regular campaign on the
uptick. In the coaching career of
current Washington State mentor Ken Bone his teams have played OVER the spot at
approaching a 70-PERCENT slip (28-14) when the posted total is in the 130’s
which is the case tonight
THURSDAY MARQUEE BEST BET
In a game where underdog Dayton led outright most of the way
including at halftime, the Flyers held close enough (60-56 final score) for a
PUSH
TONIGHT’S “4 UNIT” REDZONE BEST BET
(Dayton +4 at Richmond in a 7:05 eastern tipoff broadcast nationally on the CBS
College Sports Network): We have a very
dangerous underdog this evening as Dayton has a positive REBOUND margin (+6)
while Richmond (-4.9) is not a solid squad down low on the boards. The bottom line is that tonight Dayton who is
currently on as 1-5 skid when playing on the highway
has a chance to impress the NCAA Tournament Committee. Basically the underdog Flyers need to win
this evening for any conceivable chance at an “at large” but more important is the fact that a
setback which cause them to win the entire Atlantic 10 postseason
tournament. When considering how deep
the Atlantic 10 draw is this season, it is almost imperative that Dayton pull
off the upset. What I like most about
Dayton is there EXPERIENCE as the projected starting lineup features 4
different SENIORS including guard Marcus Johnson who shot a blistering 60% from
the floor in the month of February.
Another Dayton veteran Chris Wright also had an incredible month of
February where he averaged 16’ points and 7 rebounds per contest while shooting
55% from the floor. The youngest member of
Dayton’s starting lineup is 6’8” Chris Wright (junior) who is considered one of
the best players in the entire Atlantic 10 Conference. I am fully aware Richmond has an outstanding
HOME record (13-1) but the Spiders are in a classic “emotional letdown” position
as they just lost in DOUBLE-OVERTIME on Sunday.
Prior to that contest Richmond actually cracked the national Top-25 for
just the second time since 1958 so this school is in rarified air so to speak. As mentioned earlier Dayton has struggled on
the road but it is worth considering that 4 of those setbacks were by “4 or
less” points. Dayton lost once on the
road by ONE point in a game where they made only 3-of-22 “three point” shot
attempts. Another close but no cigar
road setback for Dayton was a DOUBLE-OVERTIME affair where they missed a pair
of “1 and 1” chances in the final minute of regulation. Another setback (2 point margin) saw the
Flyers turn the ball over twice in the final 70-seconds and in an inspiring
effort at Temple they missed 15 shots around the rim. Now you know why I am so enthusiastic about
TAKING the points in this game which is much more critical to the visitor since
Richmond (22-7) has essentially already wrapped up an at-large NCAA bid and a
“bye” in the upcoming Atlantic 10 Tournament.
Be advised that Richmond is on a current 8-1 “spread” tear which has
helped drive up the price tag from an opening figure of 3 points
THURSDAY BEST BET TOTAL
Nevada continued to be an automatic OVER play at home in
the month of March as they won a 100-92 shootout versus New Mexico State
TONIGHT’S “3 UNIT” LATE NIGHT
REDZONE BEST BET COLLEGE TOTAL (New Mexico State at Nevada OVER 163 in a 10:05
eastern tipoff): These two teams back in
January played well below a posted total of 162' points in a contest where only
a combined 144 points were put on the scoreboard. The fact that the oddsmakers
did not “adjust” tonight’s spot in the downward direction immediately caught my
attention. The national media has
latched on to the New Mexico Lobos who have a lofty Top-25 ranking and are
riding an enormous thirteen game winning streak. But the New Mexico State Aggies (19-9, 11-3
Western Athletic Conference) are also having a solid campaign with a
high-octane lineup that features a pair of “1,000 career” point scorers who
operate out of the guard position. One
of those Aggie guards Jahmar Young is averaging 21
points per contest while Jonathan Gibson is putting in on average 18 per
outing. What really caught my attention
is that all FIVE of the New Mexico State starters cracked “double figures” in
their initial season attempt against the Nevada defense. As for the Wolfpack
they have a pair of underclassmen (Armon Johnson,
Luke Babbitt) who in a recent contest were viewed by a handful of NBA scouts. The hot gun in Nevada’s lineup right now is
senior guard Brandon Fields who has poured in a combined 43 POINTS in the last
pair of games. Nevada’s most recent
outing was at Hawaii where the team had to endure a “tsunami warning” so I feel
back on home soil the offense will a lot more effective tonight with full focus
on basketball. My database research
indicates that Nevada is a stunning 7-0 OVER/HOME the past couple of years in
the month of MARCH where the offense has averaged a healthy 78 points per game. Tonight that offense goes against a weak New
Mexico State contingent which on average has permitted 82 points per attempt on
the road. The Aggies may be suspect on
defense but in the past five games the offense (81 ppg)
has made up for that shortfall
“COLLEGE UPSET OF THE YEAR” TUESDAY (WINS OUTRIGHT)
The opening MARQUEE Best Bet of March saw Colorado as
expected putting an end to a massive 36-game conference road losing streak
(81-68 OUTRIGHT triumph)
TONIGHT’S “4 UNIT” REDZONE BEST BET
(Colorado +5 at Nebraska in a 8:05 eastern tipoff that is on-line at
ESPN360.com): The following may come as
a shock but Colorado has actually lost 36 consecutive conference road games and
tonight is their last shot in this particular campaign to finally put that streak
of futility to an end against an opponent who has a horrible “2-12” Big 12
conference record. Nebraska is in a
classic “emotional letdown” spot after pulling off a DOUBLE OVERTIME victory on
Saturday where they rallied from a massive 14-point deficit to pull off an
upset of Texas Tech. Normally it is
dangerous to bet against a team like Nebraska on “senior night” but according
to my database research the Cornhuskers are a very poor 6-17 ATS when coming
off a “close” win of 6-or-less points which was the case back on Saturday. Considering that Colorado has lost 36
consecutive road games in league play one would have thought the oddsmakers would have cast them as a substantial underdog
tonight so the fact that the spread is only 5 points speaks volumes. What I love about Colorado as an underdog is
that they have set a SCHOOL RECORD this season (.773) as the free-throw
line. For those of you who have followed
the Buffalos they have won of the country’s more talented freshmen in guard
Alec Burks who is 36 points away from setting a school rookie record in total
points scored (445) in a season.
Colorado’s other starting guard Corey Higgins is off a massive 33-POINT
effort in a Saturday outright triumph and in the past eleven games he has hit
at a vicious clip (.873) from the charity stripe. Higgins also tops the entire Big 12
Conference in a key defensive category has he is averaging more than 2 STEALS
per contest. Higgins is one of only 13
players in the entire country who leads his team in 5 different statistical
categories. Despite their losing ways on
the highway Colorado enters tonight’s game with a decent overall record (13-15)
and if they happen to win both of their remaining regular season contests the
Buffaloes would be eligible for the postseason NIT Tournament which would give
their young players added experience.
During the head coaching reign of Jeff Bzdelik
the Buffaloes have suffered 27 different “single digit” setbacks including a
game AT #1 ranked Kansas when they climbed out of a massive 21-point hole and
lost by only a FIVE point margin. Going
back to the database here is a an UNDEFEATED angle
that sees Colorado 7-0 ATS/ROAD the past three years when off an outright
conference victory. To recap Colorado
can snap a 36-game conference road losing streak tonight against an opponent
who has a horrible Big 12 Conference record (2-12) and is coming off a draining
“double overtime” affair. Due to the
unusual factors this large personal investment comes with the label of “college
upset of the year” where I am also adding a small additional “money line” wager
(+175) and you are invited to join me
OPENING COLLEGE POSTSEASON TOURNAMENT BEST BET (TUESDAY WIN)
The opening major release of the collegiate postseason last week went
against a squad who SUSPENDED 4 players and was operating with just a 9-man
roster (84-51 blowout WIN by Murray State)
TONIGHT’S “3 UNIT” REDZONE
POSTSEASON TOURNAMENT BEST BET (Murray State -20’ at home versus Tennessee
State in a 8:00 eastern tipoff from the opening round of the Ohio Valley
Conference Tournament): For those not
familiar with Murray State they have absolutely crushed conference competition
this season (17-1) en route to a #1 seed and a bonus HOME game tonight. This just happens to be the final season
where top seeds from the Ohio Valley Conference will be forced to play an
opening round game as their will be early “byes” similar to what other leagues
do across the country. This also is the
final season where there will be “on campus” games during the Ohio Valley
postseason tournament so I am going to take advantage of Murray State’s current
18-game HOME WINNING STREAK which is one of the longer runs of prosperity
across the country. I am aware that
Tennessee State finished sizzling hot down the regular season stretch (5-1) but
it should be noted that they started the season against league competition
(1-11) getting squashed. It was actually
very strange to see Tennessee State finish so strongly when you consider that 4
different players last month received season-ending SUSPENSIONS due to poor off
the court behavior. Tennessee State may
have rallied down the stretch in order to qualify for the postseason but the
fact of the matter is that they are operating with only a NINE man roster which
is severely depleted. Getting back to
Murray State they have won more regular season titles (21) than any other squad
in Ohio Valley history and the Racers currently have a lofty #4 national
ranking in the latest “mid major” national poll. I will wrap this up with an UNDEFEATED long
term angle which sees Tennessee State 0-6 ATS the past two years against
excellent offensive opponents who on average hit at least 50% of their shot
attempts from the field
OLYMPIC BEST BET SPECIAL WINS
Sunday 2/28 featured an OLYMPIC moment as UNDER the total
came through in the highly anticipated USA/Canada Gold Medal clash which ended
3-2 in overtime.
TODAY'S SPECIAL HOCKEY
"3 UNIT" REDZONE BEST BET TOTAL (USA/Canada Gold Medal Olympic clash
UNDER 5' goals in a 3:15 eastern faceoff broadcast nationally on NBC): We actually have a very low total considering
that the USA/Canada hockey clash from one week ago was a high scoring shootout
won by the Americans. Since last Sunday the USA squad scored 6 goals in a
single period while Canada combined on 15 goals in a pair of triumphs. But despite recent high scoring games the
bottom line is that DEFENSE and in this case "hot goaltenders" is
what wins marquee high profile matchups no matter what the sport. It seems like an eternity since the NFL Super
Bowl was played featuring a pair of quarterbacks who statistically were at the
top of the league which helped create an "inflated" posted
total. In a nutshell New Orleans pulled
off the upset and became a legitimate Super Bowl contender due to the hiring of
DEFENSIVE coordinator Greg Williams whose unit constantly created
turnovers. I am using this same
defensive philosiphy handicapping today's highly
publicized Olympic Hockey Gold Medal clash.
In my opinion the "side" is difficult to predict was with a
triumph this afternoon the host country of Canada can set a Winter Olympic
record for most GOLD medals won. On the
other side of the spectrum it has been both "30" and "50"
years ago when the USA pulled off stunning Gold Medal hockey upsets so anything
can happen. Of course Olympic hockey
squads are now made up of essentially NHL professionals and the league with a
positive result this afternoon would have an opportunity to MARKET a player
actually born on American soil as opposed to Sidney Crosby and Alex Ovechkin who currently get the bulk of national press. Both last Sunday and in the quarterfinal
round the Canadiens saw how the American squad can
get off to a strong start and put the opposition on its heels so to speak. The bottom line is that Canada who is
attempting to defend a game that was created on their own soil will be much
more PHYSICAL that a week ago. The
physical nature of hockey along with the paramount nature of this contest makes
me think the TOTAL (Under) is the better percentage wagers as opposed to the
side
7-4 SUNDAY BEST BETS PAST SIX WEEKS
--3/7 NHL Special Blackhawks (-170) lose at home 5-4 in NBC
telecast
--3/7 CBS total Florida/Kentucky OVER (141) misses by ONE
point in a 74-66 contest
--3/7 College Tournament Boston University (-2’) COVERS in
70-63 road triumph
--2/28 Indiana (+6’) fails to cover in a 73-57 pounding at Iowa
--2/28 OLYMPIC HOCKEY (USA/Canada UNDER 5’ goals) WINS in a
3-2 overtime thriller
--2/21 Ohio State/Michigan OVER (135) WINS in a CBS broadcast with 141
combined points scored
--2/14 Marist (+20) COVERS in a 70-51 contest at Niagra
--2/7 Saints/Colts UNDER (57) WINS in the Super Bowl with 48 combined points scored
--2/7 Canisius (+6) COVERS in tight 73-72
road game at Saint Peters
--1/31 Pro Bowl OVER (57’) WINS in a 41-34 NFL
All-Star shootout
--“22-13” all Sunday
NFL regular season Best Bets
87-88 premium college
basketball past fifty-eight days
59-55 all PREMIUM sides+totals
in month of February
MARQUEE BEST BET “SIDES+TOTALS” (4 Units or higher) 12-8
PAST TWENTY-NINE DAYS
--SUPER SUNDAY “5 Unit” Super Bowl Total UNDER (57) WINS with
ease as Saints/Colts combine for 48 points
--2/11 NHL special “4 Unit” monster Senators (+110) WINS in
6-5 home triumph versus Capitals who recently had 14-0 run snapped
--2/13 College “4 Unit” Total Missouri/Baylor UNDER (145)
WINS with ease in low scoring game with just 126 combined points scored
--2/17 ESPN “5 Unit” Total Suns/Mavericks UNDER (215’) WINS
in contest with just 204 combined points scored
--2/18 “4 Unit” Sun Belt Game of the Year Florida
International (+4) COVERS in 77-74 contest against rival Florida Atlantic
--2/19 “4 Unit” Total William+Mary/Iona
OVER (124) barely misses in ESPNU telecast with 122 combined points scored
--2/20 ESPN2 “5 Unit” bracketbuster
Siena (+8) fails to cover in 70-53 contest where they led outright at
halftime on the road
--2/20 ESPN “4 Unit” primetime Washington (-11’) COVERS with
ease in 97-68 home rout of UCLA
--2/24 “4 Unit” monster Wichita State (-3) fails to cover in
a 75-73 setback at Bradley
--2/25 ESPN2 NON-CONFERENCE GAME OF THE YEAR Tulsa
(+18’) COVERS in 70-52 contest at Duke where the heavy underdog trailed by just
FOUR points at halftime
--2/26 “4 Unit” NBA monster Timberwolves (+9’) fail to cover
a 109-92 road setback
--2/27 ESPN “5 Unit” event Villanova (+5’) fails to cover in
a 95-77 setback at Syracuse
--2/27 “4 Unit” monster Georgia Tech (-7’) fails to cover a
73-68 home contest (despite a 12 point lead with just 22-seconds remaining)
--2/28 “4 Unit” Big 10 Game of the Year Indiana (+6’) failed
to cover a 73-57 road contest at Iowa
--3/2 “4 Unit” College UPSET of the Year Colorado (+5) wins
OUTRIGHT by a 81-68 count as they finally snapped a massive 36-game road losing
streak
--3/4 “4 Unit” monster Dayton (+4) PUSHES in 60-56 road
contest they led outright at halftime
--3/6 “4 Unit” NATIONAL-TV ESPN monster Louisville (+1)
COVERS in a 78-68 rout of #1 ranked Syracuse (final game at Freedom Hall)
--3/6 “4 Unit” TOURNAMENT monster Loyola-Marymount (-1’)
COVERS in a 84-76 West Coast Conference triumph versus San Francisco
--3/6 “4 Unit” TOTALS monster Washington State/Oregon OVER
(134) WINS in a 74-66 Pac-Ten contest
--3/7 “5 Unit” NBC/NHL special Blackhawks (-170) fail at home
5-4
--3/8 “5 Unit” ESPN bombshell William+Mary
(+9) COVERS in a 60-53 Colonial Conference championship special
SATURDAY “5 UNIT” BEST BET (2/20)
Siena fails to cover in 17 point setback of a game they actually led outright
at halftime
TODAY’S SPECIAL “5 UNIT” REDZONE
BEST BET (Siena +8 at Butler in a 11:05 AM eastern tipoff broadcast nationally
on ESPN2): The oddsmakers
had no choice but to “inflate” this price tag since Butler (#18 national
ranking) has won 16 games in a row and has been almost unbeatable on their own
home floor (27-2) the past couple of seasons.
The bottom line is that out of all the “bracketbuster”
contests being played throughout the day, Siena has the most to gain since they
have yet to defeat a “top fifty” opponent.
My research indicates that in the past sixteen years only EIGHT small
conference teams gained an “at large” NCAA tournament invitation without a
victory against a “top fifty” opponent on their resume. For those of you who may not be familiar with
“bracketbusters” they are made-for-TV events which
gives “mid major” programs a chance at national exposure and to bolster their
postseason credentials. It has been another
stellar campaign for Siena (22-5, 15-1 conference) and this school long term is
on a sensational “48-10” overall tear where they have ripped off 34 consecutive
triumphs on their home hardwood. The
problem is Siena is on the road this morning at one of the toughest “mid major”
venues in the land so they have an opportunity to prove themselves in adverse
conditions in this particular ESPN2 telecast.
The Saints who have dominated the Metro-Atlantic Conference have actually
picked up triumphs in the NCAA Tournament in consecutive seasons, but their
ticket to this year’s “big dance” is in jeopardy. This past Friday Siena who was riding a
15-game winning streak finally had a large viewing audience on ESPN2 and they
promptly lost on the road at Niagra which seriously
hurt their chances for a possible “at large” NCAA berth, especially considering
that a year ago the tournament committee picked only 4 squads from small
conferences as “at large” entrants.
Siena has now had 20+-wins in 4 consecutive seasons but the Saints
during the “non” league portion of their schedule failed to pull off an upset
of a high profile opponent (St. Johns, Georgia Tech, Northern Iowa) so their
will be some on the NCAA tournament committee questioning just how legitimate
the Saints current 22-5 record really is.
With teams from 3 different “mid major” conferences not participating in
this year’s Bracketbuster games (Atlantic 10,
Mountain West, Conference-USA) the best opportunity for a “signature” victory
lies with Siena who would garner attention against an opponent who has a very
high current RPI ranking (20). The RPI
is a mathematical measurement of a team’s strength which the NCAA uses to help
them come up with “at large” berths for the Big Dance. Recent history shows us that Siena has done
very well in these late season Bracketbuster games as
one year ago they won in front of the ESPN2 cameras which ultimately helped
them land a #9 NCAA Tournament seed. Two
years ago Siena on the road won OURIGHT in a huge Bracketbuster
upset so anything is possible late this morning. For those of you who will be watching on
ESPN2 keep an eye on Siena forward Alex Franklin who is the only player in his
conference to have “top five” rankings in scoring, rebounding and field goal
percentage. Another forward Ryan Rossiter has already set a single-season Saints school
record with 16 different “double doubles” in both scoring and rebounding. Siena also has an exceptional guard Ronald
Moore who just happens to lead the entire country in the critical ASSISTS
category. A statistic that has grabbed
my attention is the fact that Siena has attempted twice as many free-throws as
their opposition which means they have the ability to pick up crucial “bonus”
points today from the charity stripe.
Siena just happens to be ranked #2 in the entire country for FEWEST
fouls committed (13.9) per game. Siena’s
defense has averaged a hefty 8.8 STEALS per game and have scored a grand total
of 514 points this season off of those forced turnovers which grades out to 18
per game. Turning to the INJURY report
Butler forward/guard Willie Veasley (knee) is listed
as doubtful which will hurt the Bulldogs who are a poor 2-9 ATS the past couple
of campaigns after consecutive “double digit” outright victories. With their current head coach Siena has
covered at a solid 9-2 ATS clip on the ROAD when off consecutive contests that
also were on the highway. To wrap this
up Siena is in an almost “must win” setup early today if they have any chance
at an NCAA tournament “at large” berth
SPECIAL ESPN-TV “5 UNIT” BEST BET EVENT WINS ON 2/17
In an NBA telecast on 2/17 just 204 combined points scored
TONIGHT’S SPECIAL “5 UNIT” REDZONE
BEST BET NATIONAL-TV TOTAL (Suns at Mavericks UNDER 215’ in a 9:05 eastern tipoff broadcast nationally on
ESPN): Of course the big news these days
in the NBA is the upcoming trade deadline and Dallas certainly was active in
that department during the All-Star break pulling off a “seven player” deal
with Washington highlighted by Caron Butler going from a Wizards to a Mavericks
uniform. Butler had a fan during his
days in the Eastern Conference as a guy named LeBron
James called him quote “tough” and that is exactly the player that Dallas
needs. What I found interesting about
the just completed Mavericks/Wizards trade was that Dallas owner Mark Cuban was
NOT going to do the deal unless former North Carolina center and SEVEN-FOOTER
Brendan Haywood was involved. I can see
why Cuban demanded Haywood’s services since he is an athletic player who has
both SHOT BLOCKING and other DEFENSIVE abilities. For the entire season to
date Haywood is averaging 6.3 rebounds and 1’ blocked shots per contest and he
is a monster presence down low in the paint for opposing players who like to
drive the lane. It was obvious to
Cuban that his Mavericks had to “toughen up” because in the final three games
before the All-Star Break the defense was torched (127,117,117) three
consecutive times. What made that
defensive slump so shocking is that current Dallas headman Rick Carlisle has
always been known as a “defensive oriented” head coach. It came as no personal shock that Dallas last
night in their initial post All-Star break outing played UNDER the total in a
99-86 setback. What was a bit surprising
though was the Mavericks offense which scored a grand total of only ELEVEN
points in the entire third quarter. With
3 new members of the team coming via trade it is going to take some time for
Dallas to gain offensive chemistry and last night after halftime the entire
team put only 32 points on the scoreboard while regular center Erick Dampier
(dislocated finger) exited early.
Another stunning result from last night was the fact that the Phoenix
DEFENSE held Memphis to a season-LOW shooting percentage (35.6%) enroute to a 109-95 road triumph. The Suns defense allowed only 32 points in
the paint which was eye opening simply because the Grizzlies came into the
contest averaging a NBA-Best mark (51.6) in average points produced in the paint. Of course one does not think of Phoenix as a
defensive squad since for the past eight years they have sat atop the NBA in
average offensive production and this year (110 ppg)
is no different as the Suns are nailing 41% of their “three point” long range
opportunities. When one looks closely at
the Phoenix offense they thrive on the various pick-and-rolls created by both
Steve Nash and Amare Stoudemire. The problem with Stoudemire
is that any day now will be his last in a Suns uniform as trade rumors
persist. In last night’s road triumph
Phoenix another Phoenix All-Star Steve Nash took a grand total of only FOUR
shots from the field due to an ailing back that started to bother him in
pre-game warmups.
It was a very busy All-Star break for Nash who participated in the
Olympic opening ceremonies in his native country. Nash also was part of the West squad in the
All-Star game and just the day prior won the skills competition. To make a long story short Nash has had
extremely little rest and his BACK issues are bound to have a negative affect
on the entire Suns offense. It is
interesting to note that Phoenix is actually an outstanding “20-6” this season
when their defense holds the opposition to BELOW 100 points and that is what
they did last night. Ever since taking
the head coaching reigns in Phoenix Alvin Gentry according to his star center
has actually spent some time teaching DEFENSE which is something Mike D’Antoni virtually ignored during his tenure in the Valley
of the Sun. The Suns come into tonight
having won 6 of the past 7 games outright and my database research indicates
that Phoenix is 12-4 UNDER the total for the entire season after successfully
covering the spread at a 5-1 clip. These
two teams met last month in a 112-106 shootout which helped inflate tonight’s
total. Dallas just happens to be 13-5
UNDER the total this season when “revenging” a loss against an opponent. In his lengthy coaching career current Dallas
mentor Rick Carlisle is a whopping 10-1 UNDER/HOME after consecutive games
where his teams made less than 40% of their shot attempts from the floor
31-24 PREMIUM “TOTALS” RUN
64-64 premium sides+totals since Super Sunday
SAINTS-AND-UNDER
A record setting football season concludes with a “5 UNIT”
Best Bet triumph
64-64 SIDES-AND-TOTALS PAST
TWENTY-EIGHT DAYS
--Monday BEST BET William+Mary (+9) COVERS in a 60-53 Colonial Championship
ESPN tussle
--Monday BEST BET William+Mary/Old Dominion OVER (117) fails in a game with
just 113 points scored
--Monday Oral Roberts
(+3) fails to cover by ONE point in a 69-65 contest
--Monday Timberwolves
(+6’) fails to cover in a 125-112 home NBA setback versus Mavericks
--Monday
Warriors/Hornets UNDER (215) fails miserably in a
135-131 shootout
---Sunday BEST BET
Blackhawks (-170) lose 5-4 at home in NHL/NBC telecast
--Sunday BEST BET
Florida/Kentucky OVER (141) loses by ONE point in a 74-66 CBS televised contest
--Sunday BEST BET
Boston University (-2’) COVERS in a 70-63 postseason tournament road triumph
--Sunday Illinois (+3’)
lose 72-57 in home finale
--Sunday
Loyola-Marymount (+12) loses 77-62 in conference tournament play
--Sunday NBA Pistons
(+2) COVER in a 110-107 home triumph
--Saturday BEST BET Louisville
(+1) OUTRIGHT upset of #1 Syracuse
--Saturday BEST BET
Washington State/Oregon OVER (134) WINS in a 74-66 contest
--Saturday BEST BET
Loyola-Marymount (-1’) COVERS in a 84-76 West Coast Conference tournament
triumph
--Saturday West
Virginia/Villanova UNDER (152) WINS despite OT in a 68-66 televised CBS contest
--Saturday Alabama
(-5’) COVERS in a 73-61 home rout
--Saturday Winthrop
(+9’) OUTRIGHT upset in the Big South Championship
--Saturday Murray State
(-4) COVERS in a 62-51 Ohio Valley Championship victory
--Saturday NBA Pacers
(+12’) COVERS in a 113-105 road contest at Suns
--Friday BEST BET
Georgia Southern (+1’) with six SENIORS on roster suffers double-digit
conference tournament setback
--Friday NBA Kings
(+8’) COVER in a 108-100 road verdict
--Friday Cleveland
State/Wisconsin-Milwaukee UNDER (134’) fails in a
82-75 tournament contest
--Friday
Jacksonville/Mercer UNDER (147) WINS in a low scoring tournament game with 129
combined points scored
--Thursday BEST BET
Dayton (+4) PUSHES in 60-56 road contest they actually led at halftime
--Thursday BEST BET New
Mexico State/Nevada OVER (163) WINS with ease in a 100-92 shootout
--Thursday
Providence/Pittsburgh OVER (150) fails in a 73-71 ESPN contest
--Thursday Monmouth
(+13’) COVERS in a 84-75 postseason tournament game
they actually led at halftime
--Wednesday BEST BET
Alabama-Birmingham (-3) loses outright in home finale
--Wednesday BEST BET
Clippers (+4) lose by 26-point snapping a 4-game home winning streak
--Wednesday BEST BET Sabres (+120) lose at home in first game back with Olympic
star goaltender Ryan Miller
--Wednesday Rhode
Island (-8’) COVERS in a 80-58 rout of Charlotte
--Wednesday Lafayette
(-7’) COVERS in a 73-65 postseason tournament home triumph
--Tuesday BEST BET
Colorado (+5) OUTRIGHT 81-68 road upset as they snapped a 36-game conference
losing skid on the highway
--Tuesday BEST BET
Murray State (-20’) WINS in a 84-51 rout in the opening round of the Ohio
Valley Tournament
--Tuesday Marshall (-2)
loses outright 80-76 as a seven-game home win streak was snapped
--Tuesday Georgia Tech
(+7) fails to cover in a 91-80 road setback
--Tuesday Tennessee
Tech/Austin Peay OVER (150) fails in an Ohio Valley
Conference opening round tournament 68-65 verdict
--Monday BEST BET
Georgetown/West Virginia UNDER (136’) fails in a 81-68
ESPN verdict
--Monday BEST BET
Oklahoma/Texas OVER (145) WINS in a high scoring 87-76 ESPN shootout
--Monday NBA Bobcats
(-3) fail to cover in a 89-84 home loss versus Mavericks
--Last Sunday BEST BET
Indiana (+6’) fails to cover in ugly 73-57 road setback at struggling Iowa
--Last Sunday OLYMPIC
GOLD MEDAL BEST BET TOTAL “USA/Canada” UNDER (5’) WINS in a 3-2 overtime hockey
thriller
--Last Sunday Seton
Hall (-2’) loses outright by ONE point at home
--Last Sunday #3 ranked
Purdue (-4) loses outright 53-44 at home
--Last Sunday
Suns/Spurs UNDER (209’) fails in a 113-110 ABC
televised shootout
--Last Saturday BEST BET
Villanova (+5’) fails to cover a 95-77 ESPN road setback at Syracuse
--Last Saturday BEST
BET Georgia Tech (-7’) fails to cover a 73-68 contest (Georgia Tech was up by
TWELVE points with 22-seconds remaining)
--Last Saturday BEST
BET Total William+Mary/NC Wilmington OVER (131’)
fails in a 62-51 contest
--Last Saturday Kansas
(-5’) loses outright 85-77 at Oklahoma State
--Last Saturday Tulsa
(-10) COVERS an 85-73 road triumph
--Last Saturday Montana
State (+10’) OUTRIGHT 73-67 road upset at rival Montana
--Last Saturday Florida
International (+8’) fails to cover an 88-61 setback on “senior night”
--Friday BEST BET
Timberwolves (+9’) fail to cover in a 109-92 NBA road setback
--Friday Marist (+9) fail miserably in a 62-39 home setback
--Last Thursday BEST BET
Northwestern (-9) COVERS with ease in 70-52 home rout of Iowa on ESPN
--Last Thursday BEST
BET Tulsa (+18’) COVERS in a 70-52 contest where they trailed by only FOUR
points at halftime on Duke’s home floor
--Last Thursday Wofford (-9’) fails to cover a 74-68 straight-up home win
--Last Thursday
Appalachian State (-11) fails to cover a 80-74 straight up home win
--Last Thursday NBA
Warriors (+6) fail to cover a 127-112 home loss versus Nuggets on TNT
--Last Wednesday BEST
BET Wichita State (-3) fails to cover in 75-73 road setback against Bradley
contingent without SUSPENDED lead rebounder and #2 scorer
--Last Wednesday BEST
BET South Florida/Villanova UNDER (149) WINS with ease in a 74-49 final verdict
--Last Wednesday ESPN2
Notre Dame (+1’) OUTRIGHT in 68-53 home romp of Pittsburgh
--Last Wednesday St.
Johns (+2) PUSHES in 63-61 straight-up home setback versus Marquette in
OVERTIME
--Last Wednesday
Cal-Fullerton/Cal-Poly OVER (148’) fails in a 70-68 contest
--Last Wednesday NBA
Clippers (-4) COVER in a 97-91 home triumph versus Pistons
--2/22 Tuesday BEST BET
Georgia State (+9’) fails to cover in a 75-62 home setback where they actually
led in the second-half
--2/22 Tuesday BEST BET
Northeastern (-11) stunningly loses their home finale (Northeastern had shot a
first conference title since 1991)
--2/22 Tuesday NBA
Warriors (+1) lose a 110-102 home decision as a “29-5 System” fails
--2/21 Monday BEST BET
Norfolk State (-1’) COVERS with ease in an 82-62 home rout of South Carolina
State on ESPNU
--2/21 Monday South
Carolina State/Norfolk State OVER (147’) just misses in ESPNU game with 144
combined points scored
--2/21 Monday Knicks
(-1) fail to cover in a 83-67 home loss versus Bucks
--2/20 Sunday BEST BET
Ohio State/Michigan State OVER (135) WINS in a 74-67 CBS televised contest
--2/20 Sunday NBA
Timberwolves (+6’) COVER in a near outright upset (109-107 NBA war with
Thunder)
--2/20 Sunday Virginia
Tech/Duke OVER (138) fails in FOX-NET telecast with just 122 combined points
scored
--2/19 Saturday ESPN PRIMETIME
BEST BET Washington (-11’) COVERS with ease in 97-68 rout of UCLA
--2/19 Saturday ESPN2
BEST BET Siena (+8) fails to cover 70-53 on the road as they blew outright
halftime lead
--2/19 Saturday
BRACKETBUSTER primetime BEST BET Presbyterian (+11’) OUTRIGHT 59-55 upset at
Jacksonville State
--2/19 Saturday Saint
Josephs (+10) COVERS in 75-67 overtime thriller versus Temple
--2/19 Saturday ESPNU Bracketbuster Western Carolina (+8’) COVERS in a 74-72
thriller at Kent State
--2/19 Saturday
USC/Washington State OVER (122’) fails in a 51-47 contest
--2/19 Saturday
Northern Colorado (-7) fails to cover in 64-61 straight-up home victory
--2/18 Friday BEST BET William+Mary/Iona OVER (124) misses by a BUCKET in an ESPNU
telecast with 122 combined points scored
--2/18 Friday NBA Sixers (+3’) OUTRIGHT in 106-94 home upset of Spurs
--2/18 Friday
Columbia/Dartmouth OVER (115’) fails in a 48-44 final verdict
--2/17 Thursday BEST
BET Florida International (+4) COVERS in a 77-74 home contest versus main rival
Florida Atlantic
--2/17 Thursday ESPN2
BEST BET Syracuse/Georgetown OVER (142’) WINS in a high scoring 75-71 Big East clash
--2/17 Thursday ESPN
Minnesota (pick) COVERS in a 68-52 home rout of Wisconsin
--2/17 Thursday
UCLA/Washington State OVER (138) fails in a 71-51 contest
--2/17 Thursday TNT/NBA
Celtics (+3’) OUTRIGHT 87-86 upset at Lakers
--2/16 Wednesday “5
UNIT” BEST BET Suns/Mavericks UNDER (215’) WINS in ESPN telecast with just 204
combined points scored
--2/16 Wednesday BEST
BET Oklahoma State/Iowa State OVER (144’) fails in game with 133 combined
points scored
--2/16 Wednesday ESPN2
Notre Dame (+11’) COVERS with ease in 91-89 Double-OT thriller
--2/16 Wednesday South
Carolina (+4) fails to cover a 92-79 road setback at Arkansas
--2/16 Wednesday Saint
Josephs/Xavier OVER (150’) fails in game with 140 combined points scored
--2/15 Tuesday BEST BET
William+Mary (+2’) OUTRIGHT 63-60 road upset at
George Mason
--2/15 Tuesday BEST BET
Depaul (-4) loses outright at home versus Rutgers
after coughing up massive 17-point advantage
--2/15 Tuesday Rockets
(+3’) fail to cover in a 104-95 home NBA setback versus Jazz
--2/15 Monday BEST BET
Kansas/Texas A+M Aggies OVER (140) fails miserably in a 59-54 final verdict
--2/15 Monday ESPN
Connecticut (+9’) OUTRIGHT 84-75 upset at Villanova
--2/14 Sunday BEST BET
Marist (+20) COVERS in a 70-51 road contest as five-year system approaching
80-PERCENT clicks again
--2/14 Sunday NBA
All-Star game EAST (-1) COVERS in a 141-139 thriller
--2/14 Sunday CBS Total
Ohio State/Illinois OVER (137) fails in game with just 125 combined points
scored
--2/14 Sunday CBS
College Sports Total Saint Josephs/Massachusetts OVER (151) fails in a game
with just 132 combined points scored
--2/13 Saturday MARQUEE
“4 Unit” Best Bet total Missouri/Baylor UNDER (145) WINS with ease in a very
low scoring 64-62 contest
--2/13 Saturday BEST
BET side Alabama (-6’) barely fails to cover the spread in as 73-68 straight-up
home win against Arkansas
--2/13 Saturday Rhode
Island (+4) fails to cover in ugly 78-56 road loss (despite lofty #12 RPI
ranking)
--2/13 Saturday Cornell
(-5) barely fails to cover the spread in a 48-45 straight-up victory on the
road
--2/13 Saturday Saint
Mary’s (+1’) fails to cover in OVERTIME (90-85 road setback)
--2/13 Saturday TOTAL
Northern Colorado/Weber State OVER (148’) WINS in a
81-76 shootout
--2/12 Friday BEST BET
Idaho State (+4’) fails to cover in 68-59 home loss even though their leading
scorer returned from injury
--2/12 Friday Canisius (-14’) COVERS in 71-56 home triumph
--2/11 Thursday MARQUEE
BEST BET (4 Units) on the Ottawa Senators (+110) WINS in a 6-5 home triumph
over Washington whose 14-game NHL win streak was snapped earlier in the week
--2/11 Thursday college
BEST BET Indiana-Purdue (-12) barely fails to cover by ONE point in a 88-77
outright road triumph
--2/11 Thursday TOTAL
Oregon State/Arizona State UNDER (116) WINS with ease in a very low scoring
56-46 contest
--2/11 Thursday FOX-NET
Oregon (+7’) fails to cover in a 70-57 road setback at Arizona
--2/11 Thursday ESPN2
Saint Mary’s (+6) fails to cover in a 80-61 road loss at Gonzaga
--2/10 Wednesday BEST
BET Baylor/Nebraska UNDER (133’) WINS with ease in ESPN2 telecast with just 108
combined points scored
--2/10 Wednesday NBA
Kings (+4’) OUTRIGHT 103-97 road upset at Pistons
--2/10 Wednesday Rhode
Island (-5’) fails to cover in outright home loss versus Richmond
--2/10 Wednesday SEC
Network South Carolina (-1’) COVERS in 77-71 home triumph versus Florida
--2/10 Wednesday ESPN2-TV Idaho (+1’) COVERS
in 67-66 home thriller versus Nevada
--2/10 Wednesday CBS
College Sports New Mexico/Nevada-Las Vegas UNDER (146) WINS in 76-66 national
cable televised contest
--2/9 Tuesday BEST BET
Thunder/Blazers UNDER (192) WINS by 26-point margin in very low scoring 89-77
contest
--2/9 Tuesday ESPN
Purdue (+2’) OUTRIGHT in 76-64 romp at Michigan State
--2/9 Tuesday NBA
Timberwolves/Sixers OVER (205’) WINS with ease in
affair with 216 combined points scored
--2/8 Monday BEST BET Siena
(-11’) fails to cover even though they extended an outright home win streak to
33 in a row versus banged up opponent
--2/8 Monday ESPN
Kansas/Texas UNDER (152) WINS in a 80-68 contest
--2/8 Monday NBA
Warriors (+4’) fail to cover and blow a double-digit second half lead in
127-117 home loss
--2/7 Sunday “5 UNIT”
Super Bowl Total UNDER (57) WINS in a contest with 48 combined points scored
--2/7 Sunday Super Bowl
side Saints (+5) OUTRIGHT 31-17 in stunning upset of Colts
--2/7 Sunday BEST BET
college Canisius (+6) COVERS with ease in a near outright
upset (73-72 final score)
--2/7 Sunday NHL/NBC
special Penguins/Capitals OVER (6’) WINS with ease in a 5-4 marquee shootout
Football Best Bets wrap up (23-14) since 12/12
All Football BEST BETS 60 PERCENT (71-48) final 100
days of coverage
*****Ranked #1 NFL for the
entire regular season plus #1 College Bowls up against the nation’s elite
handicappers as professionally monitored at (www.sports-watch.com) *****
31-24 premium service TOTALS
run (including Super Bowl 5-Unit Under)
ALL SIDES+TOTALS 22-11 FOUR WEEKS AGO
--Sunday Super Bowl “5 Unit” BEST BET Total Saints/Colts
UNDER (57) WINS in game with 48 combined points scored
--Sunday Super Bowl side Saints (+5) OUTRIGHT upset 31-17 against
Colts
--Sunday
College BEST BET Canisius (+6) COVER with ease in a near outright upset
(73-72 final score)
--Sunday NHL/NBC special Penguins/Capitals OVER (6’) WINS in a 5-4 shootout
--Saturday BEST BET Tennessee-Martin (-1) fails to cover in
a 74-68 home setback against a depleted opponent who kicked 4 players off the
squad
--Saturday BEST BET William+Mary
(-2) COVERS in a 59-56 road triumph at Georgia
State
--Saturday ESPN2 Dayton
(-3) COVERS with ease in a 90-65 blowout of Xavier
--Saturday ESPN Duke/Boston
College UNDER (141’) WINS with ease in low scoring affair with 129 combined
points scored
--Saturday ESPN Michigan State/Illinois UNDER (138) fails
in a 78-73 contest
--Saturday ESPNU Nevada
(+9) barely misses by TWO points in a 76-65 road setback
--Saturday FREE pick Northern Iowa
(-10) fails to cover in 55-52 straight-up home win
--Friday BEST BET Brown (+5’) fails to cover in a 85-75 setback where they were actually leading for more
than an entire half on the highway
--Friday NBA Rockets (+5) OUTRIGHT in a 101-83 romp at
Grizzlies
--Friday NCAA Montana (-4) COVERS with ease in a 75-61 rout
of Weber State
--Friday FREE pick Lakers (-8) lose outright at home in
rare setback at Staples
Center
--Thursday BEST BET Tennessee
Tech (+11) fails to cover in a 76-58 contest at Eastern
Kentucky
--Thursday ESPN Notre Dame (-3) COVERS with ease in a 83-65
rout of Cincinnati
--Thursday ESPN2 Total Georgia Tech/Duke UNDER (145) fails
in a game with 153 combined points scored
--Thursday NBA/TNT Blazers (+2) OUTRIGHT 96-93 upset of
Spurs
--Thursday FOX-NET Washington (-10) fails to cover in a
game they won outright by just “six” points
--Thursday FREE pick Long
Beach State
(-5’) loses outright at home versus Cal-Fullerton
--Wednesday BEST BET Alabama-Birmingham (+7’) fails to
cover in a “ten point” road setback
--Wednesday BEST BET Idaho/Utah State OVER (131) WINS in a 80-62 shootout
--Wednesday West Virginia
(-10) COVERS in a 70-51 blowout of West
Virginia
--Wednesday NC State/Virginia UNDER (135) WINS in low
scoring 59-47 contest
--Wednesday NBA Warriors (+12) COVER in 110-101 contest at
Mavericks
--Wednesday FREE pick South Florida (+13) OUTRIGHT upset at
Georgetown
--Tuesday ESPN Mississippi/Kentucky OVER (151) wins in
85-75 shootout
--Tuesday NBA Rockets (-7) wins in a 119-97 home rout of
Warriors
--Tuesday Best Bet (Tennessee
State0 postponed due to leak in roof
--Tuesday FREE pick Pacers (+1) win with ease in 130-115
NBA home rout of Raptors
--Monday BEST BET Mavericks/Jazz UNDER (199) wins in a
104-92 contest
--Monday ESPN Total Texas/Oklahoma State UNDER (151’) wins
with ease in a 72-60 final verdict
--Monday FREE pick Iona
(-10) covers with ease in a 72-53 home romp of Canisius
All college basketball BEST BETS 4-1 four weeks ago and
12-6 for the entire month of January
4-1-1 COLLEGE BASKETBALL BEST BETS FIVE WEEKS AGO
--Monday no college Best Bet
--Tuesday ESPN South Carolina (+7’) OUTRIGHT upset of #1 ranked Kentucky
--Wednesday Texas A+M (+5’)
fails to cover by BUCKET in a 76-69 setback at Oklahoma
State
--Thursday Arkansas (+3’)
OUTRIGHT 67-62 versus Mississippi
State
--Thursday Seton Hall/South Florida
OVER (147) WINS in 76-74 overtime tussle
--Friday no college Best Bet
--Saturday Auburn (+1) OUTRIGHT in 58-57 home thriller versus rival Alabama
--Saturday Washington State/Washington OVER (156) PUSHES in 92-64 contest
--Sunday no college Best Bet (but “3-1” overall college performance)
SUPER BOWL “5 UNIT” TOTALS WIN (48 combined points scored)
TONIGHT’S SPECIAL “5
UNIT” REDZONE BEST BET TOTAL (Super Bowl UNDER 57’ in a 6:25 eastern kickoff on
CBS): This was an unusual postseason
where not only did the higher seeds prosper but almost all operated out of “domed”
stadiums. Basically this is the first
“true” game in awhile that is actually being played outdoors and I am taking
advantage. We did have an outdoor game
in Miami last
Sunday and the Pro Bowl as predicted soared above a total that was almost the
exact same as we have this evening. In
the Pro Bowl defenses cannot blitz and are forced into “one on one” coverage so
the total deserves to be sky high, but I am not sure a championship game is
deserving of a similar spot. Of course
the oddsmakers had no choice but to post the highest
Super Bowl total ever due to the fact that both offenses have record setting
quarterbacks as Drew Brees led the NFL in passer
rating (109) and Peyton Manning was not far behind (104.6). Both signal callers passed for more than
4,300 yards and at least 33 touchdowns which are just some of the mind boggling
statistics. But the bottom line is that
both of these teams have played UNDER “inflated” spots this season which tells
me that have just enough defensive presence. New Orleans
actually went 3-1 UNDER against opponents from the American Conference with one
of them UNDER an enormous spot (57) against New England
and Tom Brady (quarterback of the decade).
For those of you who may be wondering there were a ton of points scored
in that Saints/Patriots contest (38-17 final score) but the oddsmakers
bumped up the number just enough to make some money for themselves and we have
a similar scenario here. The highest
spot for Indianapolis this season was 50’
points versus Houston
and the game easily went UNDER the total in a 20-17 contest. It is interesting note that the Colts slipped
above the spot in 5 of 6 chances this season when the over/under figure was in
the “low to mid 40’s” but that obviously is not the case tonight. I want to take all of you back to the 2006
NFC Championship game when New Orleans lost at Chicago
primarily due to a porous defense that gave up too many points. Despite their high-octane attack the Saints
were never a serious contender for the Super Bowl until this campaign when they
hired a marquee DEFENSIVE coordinator.
For those who may not be aware New
Orleans head coach Sean Payton
actually “deferred” some of his salary so that the team could sign veteran
coordinator Gregg Williams who preaches “old school” physical football. In the preseason Williams hammered home that
his personnel needed to be aggressive on every down and go for the
football. It comes as no personal shock
that the Saints ended up leading the league in “turnover ratio” and it all has
to do with Williams who in 1993 learned his craft while serving as a special
teams coach alongside then Houston Oilers defensive coordinator Buddy
Ryan. Of course this is the same Buddy
Ryan who whose infamous “46 defense” revolutionized the NFL in the 1980’s and
delivered the Chicago Bears of 1985 a Super Bowl title. Like his mentor Gregg Williams believes in
going after the opposing quarterback and that is exactly what the Saints
accomplished in the NFC Championship where they constantly “hurried” Bret Favre
and at one point drove him to the sidelines with an injury. In the Divisional playoff victory against Arizona
the New Orleans
front-four led by 307-pound tackle Sedrick Ellis
repeatedly pushed Kurt Warner’s offensive line back in his face. I am fully aware that both NFC playoff
contests involving New Orleans were very high
scoring by a key factor is that both Minnesota
and Arizona’s
stop-units were riddled with INJURIES.
Due to those injuries Arizona
became the first team ever to allow at least 45 points in consecutive postseason
contests. Minnesota
in the Divisional round saw one of their best pass rushers suffer a significant
injury and they were already operating with a rookie middle linebacker. This particular Super Bowl reminds me of the
Patriots/Giants matchup a few years ago as the only way an underdog can win is
to rattle a superstar quarterback by shredding his trusted offensive line and
presenting so many defensive looks that the final whistle blows before he can
figure out how to respond. The most
successful NFL team in the past decade was New England
where coach Bill Belichick
was a master of disguising a multitude of coverages
that would confuse the opposition. Of
course the big media story this week has been the health of Indianapolis
star defensive rusher Dwight Freeney but the Colts
during the regular season often played without him. Indianapolis
very quietly has a “hard hat” defense that has allowed only 20 points in the
playoffs and held the Jets scoreless for an entire half. The Colts defense is underrated as they
operate under Peyton Manning’s shadow.
With more size and speed than unusual (pair of starting tackles at more
than 310 pounds) Indy tied for #2 in the entire NFL in scoring defense through
the initial 14 games before they ultimately stopped trying. Here is a whopping "22-4" SYSTEM
(84% past five years with a lofty posted total of 49' points or higher) which
plays teams like Indianapolis with a poor pass defense whose completion
percentage against is 60%-or-worse UNDER the total when off a game where they
averaged 8+ yards per pass attempt.
Continuing with Indianapolis
they are 7-0 UNDER the past two years after allowing at least 6 yards per play
in the previous game. New
Orleans is 6-0 UNDER for the entire season after a game
where they allowed 400+ total yards. Do
I hear 7-0 UNDER anyone?!
SUPER BOWL SIDE (Saints OUTRIGHT upset)
SUPER BOWL INTANGIBLE
SIDE (Saints +5’ versus Colts in a 6:25 eastern kickoff on CBS): As you can see in the above analysis the main
reason why New Orleans has finally reached their initial Super Bowl has to do
with the offseason hiring of defensive coordinator Gregg Williams who alone has
made this squad #1 in NFL forced turnovers and we all know how critical
turnovers are in big games. By just mere
statistics there is no way that Minnesota
actually lost the NFC Championship as they went up and down the field to the
tune of 475 total yards, but the 5 turnovers forced by the Saints opportunistic
defense cashed their ticket to Miami. The bottom line regarding this pick is that
neither of these sides are true “margin” teams which
makes TAKING the available points intriguing. Indianapolis
had 7 different games this season decided by “four or less” points as they rode
the exceptional talent of Peyton Manning in the final quarter. New
Orleans registered 5 separate “come from behind”
victories where they dug themselves out of an early hole. The intangibles of this contest have to do in
part to the fact that this is the 50th-anniversary season of the old AFL which
became a legitimate league in Super Bowl 3 when Joe Namath came through with
his infamous guarantee and the Jets pulled off a massive upset in a contest
played at MIAMI which is the site of this year’s event. We have seen plenty of marquee quarterbacks
play CLOSE Super Bowls in Miami through the
years including Joe Montana’s fourth quarter miracle comeback against San
Francisco that put a wrap on the 1980’s. There is no question that Peyton Manning has
the edge over Drew Brees especially in big-game
experience, but that does not necessarily mean a spread triumph. In the early stages of this campaign New
Orleans averaged about 150 rush yards per contest which is way above the
statistics put up by the almost non-existent Colts running game. Of course a sustained rushing attack leads to
longer drives and New Orleans
conceivably has a big edge in that area.
Both of these teams dealt with media criticism of resting players down
the stretch which is another indication where there is not that much disparity
between these clubs. One could make a
strong argument that Indianapolis should be a two-touchdown favorite in this
contest since they had a chance of running the table for the entire season, so
that opening price tag set by the oddsmakers (-3’)
was in my opinion extremely telling. For
those of you who may not be aware no team has ever won the Super Bowl after
losing 3 consecutive regular season contests which puts New Orleans behind the
eight-ball so to speak. But one of those
setbacks was against which snapped a 13-game winning streak was triggered by a
television analyst that created “bulletin board” material. NBC commentator Tony Dungy proclaimed that Dallas
had absolutely no shot at upsetting the then undefeated Saints in New
Orleans.
Following the stunning result one of the Dallas
players commented that Dungy’s comments the prior
week had actually inspired them. I bring
up the subject of the Colts former head coach because just this week Dungy has
proclaimed in the media that Indianapolis
should essentially crush New Orleans
and hopefully that challenge has reached the Saints locker room. This is a very large “revenge” battle for New
Orleans who made it all the way to the 2006 NFC
Championship game. The last time New
Orleans faced the Colts was the heavy hyped regular
season 2007 NBC-TV primetime opener where Drew Brees
and company were crushed by a 41-10 count.
While on the subject of Brees he almost ended
up in Miami
but the Dolphins ultimately passed deciding that he would never fully recover
from a shoulder injury. Not only does Brees return to the city of Miami
for the biggest game of his life, he also directed an incredible comeback at
Dolphins Stadium earlier in the campaign.
My database research indicates that Brees in
his career is an excellent 19-5 ATS when facing a marquee opponent that has a
win percentage of .700 or higher.
Meanwhile in the past seventeen years Indianapolis
is an extremely poor 3-12 ATS/ROAD in the second-half of the season against
solid rushing teams that average at least 130 yards per game on the ground and
earlier in this analysis I indicated how important running the football
is. I will wrap up this analysis with an
UNDEFEATED two-year angle which simply states that New
Orleans is 8-0 ATS against “non”
conference opposition. Do I hear 9-0 ATS
anyone?!
NFL PRO BOWL “BEST BET
WIN” ON SUNDAY 1/31
Yet another NFL Best Bet Sunday winner in a 41-34 Pro Bowl
shootout
TONIGHT’S “3 UNIT”
REDZONE BEST BET NFL TOTAL (Pro Bowl OVER 57’ in a 7:20 eastern kickoff on ESPN): Of course the big story here is that for the
first time ever the NFL’s All-Star game is being moved one week ahead of the
Super Bowl in an effort to generate more television ratings along with more
fans in the stands. Dating all the way
back to 1980 the Pro Bowl has annually been held in Hawaii as a “vacation
award” for the participating players, but the bottom line is that this move to
the mainland has already paid off for the league as there will be a sellout
crowd of more than 70-thousand at Dolphins Stadium in Miami. With that anticipated sellout we are looking
at the heaviest attended Pro Bowl in FIFTY YEARS. As previously mentioned the league also is
attempting to transform their All-Star game into a bigger game by playing it
the week before Super Sunday. I for one
agree with recent comments by commissioner Roger Goodell in that this year’s Pro Bowl has already garnered
more ATTENTION from the public and media as it is being showcased on a weekend
where there is usually no football and interest in the NFL is at its
highest. For the mere sake of television
ratings the league would love to see a high scoring and competitive Pro Bowl
which is one of the reasons why I am so enthusiastic about the OVER even though
we have an extremely high posted total.
The bottom line is that with the Pro Bowl being played a full 2 weeks
earlier than normal the participating players are in BETTER SHAPE. Of course the placement of the All-Star game
the various elected players who will be participating in next week’s Super Bowl
will not be taking the field, but that has just opened up OPPORTUNITY for many
personnel who do not get many National-TV opportunities during the regular
season. Houston
quarterback Matt Schaub very quietly led the entire
NFL with 4,770 passing yards and has been given the opportunity to start for
the AFC after the loss of Peyton Manning along with injuries to Tom Brady and
Phillip Rivers. Not only is the Texans quarterback now a starter, so is his favorite
target Andre Johnson who actually GREW UP in the Miami
area and played collegiately for the Hurricanes. Johnson along with Marvin Harrison are the only wide receivers in league history to have
consecutive 1,500+ yard receptions seasons.
Also at one of the wide out spots for the AFC is the outspoken Chad Ochocinco who loves to give inspired performances both for
the fans and more importantly for his own personal attention. Ochocinco spent the
regular season stuck in a Cincinnati
offense that was “run oriented” but this evening gets to strut his stuff
against league mandated “one on one” coverage.
It is interesting to note that the AFC offense also had 3 running backs
(Chris Johnson, Ray Rice, Maurice Jones-Drew) who have
the ability to CATCH the football out of the backfield which increases
receiving options. As far as the NFC
offense is concerned they have 3 quarterbacks (Aaron Rodgers, Donovan McNabb, Tony Romo) who all have STRONG
throwing arms suited for DEEP passes.
Just like the AFC receivers, the National Conference wideouts
have the benefit of only dealing with “one on one” defensive coverage. Traditionally Pro Bowls are very high scoring
because in an effort to avoid injuries the defenses are not allowed to employ
the blitz and also lack the preparation time to install any elaborate
schemes. Last year’s Pro Bowl featured
only 51 combined points score but once again this
year’s event is being played two weeks earlier where the various offensive
personnel are in much better shape. The
tinkering with this year’s Pro Bowl to boost ratings and attendance basically
encourages a higher scoring contest than normal
12-6 ALL COLLEGE BASKETBALL JANUARY BEST BETS
*****Ranked #1 NFL for the
entire regular season plus #1 College Bowls up against the nation’s elite
handicappers as professionally monitored at (www.sports-watch.com) *****
40-39 PREMIUM “BASKETBALL” BEST BET SIDES+TOTALS PAST
FIFTY-EIGHT DAYS
--1/8 BEST BET Loyola-Maryland (+9) COVERS in
close 65-60 ESPNU televised tussle at Fairfield
--1/9 BEST BET Georgia Tech (+7’) OUTRIGHT 71-67
upset of Duke in an ESPN televised national clash
--1/10 BEST BET Oregon State (+8’) OUTRIGHT 64-57
road upset at rival Oregon in primetime FOX-NET televised Pac-10 special
--1/11 BEST BET Cavaliers/Warriors OVER (212) WINS
with ease in 117-114 NBA shootout (19 point Best Bet cover)
--1/12 BEST BET Miami-Ohio (-1’) COVERS in a 55-53
overtime thriller where Miami’s
coach tied an all-time league record for victories
--1/13 BEST BET “4 Unit” MARQUEE monster Furman
(+6’) COVERS in a close 86-81 home contest versus Davidson
--1/13 BEST BET Suns (-4) lose outright 122-114 at
Pacers
--1/13 BEST BET Nebraska
(+12) PUSHES in 84-72 final ESPN2 televised home verdict against Kansas
--1/14 BEST BET Arkansas
(+14) COVERS with ease in very close 82-80 ESPNU thriller at Mississippi
State
--1/16 BEST BET
Idaho State
(+4) COVERS in a 95-93 home thriller versus “border war” rival Weber
State
--1/17 no hoops Best Bet
--1/18 BEST BET Texas/Kansas State OVER (158’)
fails in a 71-62 final verdict
--1/19 BEST BET George Mason/Hofstra
UNDER (124’) fails miserably in a 90-72 shootout
--1/20 BEST BET Sixers
(+1) fail to cover in a 98-90 home setback versus Blazers
--1/20 BEST BET Texas
El-Paso (+8’) OUTRIGHT at Memphis
snapping the Tigers record 64-game conference winning streak (opening college
“5 UNIT” bombshell)
--1/21 BEST BET Tennessee-Martin (+2) failed to
cover in a 77-63 road loss against Southeast
Missouri State
who for the FIRST TIME ALL SEASON was cast as a favorite
--1/22 BEST
BET Idaho
State (-6’) failed to
cover by a HOOK in a 80-74 straight-up home triumph
--1/23 BEST BET Arkansas
(+16’) fails to cover in ugly 101-70 setback at Kentucky
--1/23 BEST BET South Florida (+6) OUTRIGHT road
upset at Providence
--1/24 No Best Bet
--1/25 BEST BET Hornets/Blazers UNDER (189) fail
to hit in a 98-97 contest
--1/26 BEST BET South
Carolina (+7’) OUTRIGHT upset 68-62 versus #1 ranked Kentucky
--1/27 BEST BET Texas
A+M (+5’) barely fails to cover in a SEVEN point 76-69 ESPN2 televised setback
--1/27 BEST BET Heat (+3’) fails to cover a
111-103 road setback at Raptors in the NBA
--1/28 BEST BET Seton Hall/South Florida
OVER (147) WINS in a 76-74 overtime verdict on ESPN2
--1/28 BEST BET Arkansas
(+3’) OUTRIGHT 67-62 home triumph versus Mississippi
State
--1/29 BEST BET Clippers (pick) lose 111-97 at
Timberwolves in the NBA
--1/30 BEST BET Hawks (+5’) fail to cover in ugly
104-86 loss at Magic
--1/30 BEST BET Auburn
(+1) COVERS in a 58-57 outright win against rival Alabama
--1/30 BEST BET Washington State/Washington OVER
(156) PUSHES in a 92-64 final verdict
--1/31 Football Best Bet WIN but no basketball Best Bet
--2/1 BEST BET Mavericks/Jazz UNDER (199) WINS in
a 104-92 final verdict
--2/2 BEST
BET Tennessee
State POSTPONED by leaky
roof
--2/3 BEST BET Alabama-Birmingham (+7’) fails to cover in
“ten point” road setback
--2/3 BEST BET BIdaho/Utah
State OVER (131) WINS in a 80-62 shootout
--2/4 BEST BET Tennessee
Tech (+11) loses by an “eighteen” point margin in road setback
--2/5 BEST BET Brown (+5’) fails to cover a game they led
outright on road for more than an entire half
--2/6 BEST BET Tennessee-Martin (-1) failed to cover
against opponent who just kicked 4 players off team
--2/6 BEST BET William+Mary
(-2) COVERS in a 59-56 road triumph
--2/7 BEST BET Canisius (+6)
COVERS with ease in near outright road upset (73-72 final score)
--2/8 BEST BET Siena (-11’) fails to cover even though
extending home straight-up streak to 33 in a row
--2/9 BEST BET Thunder/Blazers UNDER (192) WINS with ease
in game with just 166 combined points scored
--2/10 BEST BET Baylor/Nebraska UNDER (146) WINS with
ease in ESPN2 televised contest with just 108 combined points scored
--2/11 BEST BET Indiana-Purdue (-12) fails to cover by
ONE point in an outright 88-77 road triumph
--2/12 BEST BET Idaho State (+4’) fails to cover in 68-59
home loss even though LEAD SCORER returned from injury
--2/13 BEST BET Alabama (-6’) barely fails to cover in a
73-68 straight-up home victory
--2/13 BEST BET Missouri/Baylor UNDER (145) WINS in a
very low scoring 64-62 contest
--2/14 BEST BET Marist (+20) COVERS in a 70-51 road
contest at Niagra
--2/15 BEST BET Kansas/Texas A+M Aggies OVER (140) fails
miserably in a 59-54 final verdict
--2/16 BEST BET Depaul (-4)
loses outright at home in game where they blew a 17-point advantage
--2/16 BEST BET William+Mary
(+2’) OUTRIGHT 63-60 on the road at George Mason
--2/17 BEST BET Oklahoma State/Iowa State OVER (144’)
fails in a 69-64 contest
--2/17 BEST BET Suns/Mavericks UNDER (215’) WINS in ESPN
contest with 204 combined points scored
--2/18 BEST BET Florida International (+4) COVERS in
77-74 rivalry contest versus Florida Atlantic
--2/18 BEST BET Syracuse/Georgetown OVER (142’) WINS in a
high scoring 75-71 Big East ESPN2 TV clash
--2/19 BEST BET William+Mary/Iona
OVER (124) barely misses in ESPNU contest with 122 combined points scored
--2/20 BEST BET Siena (+8) blows halftime outright lead
and loses 70-53 at Butler
--2/20 BEST BET Washington (-11’) COVERS with ease in
97-68 ESPN home rout of UCLA
--2/20 BEST BET Presbyterian (+11’) OUTRIGHT 59-55 road
upset at Jacksonville State
--2/21 BEST BET Ohio State/Michigan State OVER (135) WINS
in a 74-67 CBS telecast
--2/22 BEST BET Norfolk State (-1’) COVERS with ease in a
82-62 home rout of South Carolina State in an ESPNU telecast
--2/23 BEST BET Georgia State (+9’) fails to cover their
home finale 75-62 in a game they led outright in the second-half
--2/23 BEST BET Northeastern (-11) loses their home
finale and a shot at their first conference regular season title since 1991
--2/24 BEST BET Wichita State (-3) fails to cover in
75-73 road setback
--2/24 BEST BET South Florida/Villanova UNDER (149) WINS
with ease in low scoring 74-49 affair
--2/25 BEST BET Tulsa (+18’) COVERS in a 70-52 final
verdict at Duke
--2/25 BEST BET Northwestern (-9) COVERS in a 74-57 ESPN
televised home wipeout of Iowa
--2/26 BEST BET Timberwolves (+9’) fail to cover in a
109-92 home setback versus Thunder
--2/27 BEST BET Villanova (+5’) fails to cover a 95-77
ESPN road setback at Syracuse
--2/27 BEST BET Georgia Tech (-7’) fails to cover a 73-68
straight-up triumph where they led by TWELVE points with 22-seconds remaining
--2/27 BEST BET William+Mary/NC
Wilmington OVER (131’) fails in a 62-51 final verdict
--2/28 BEST BET Indiana (+6’) fails to cover in an ugly
73-57 road setback at struggling Iowa
--3/1 BEST BET Georgetown/West Virginia UNDER (136’)
fails in an ESPN contest with 149 combined points scored
--3/1 BEST BET Oklahoma/Texas OVER (145) WINS in a high
scoring 87-76 ESPN clash
--3/2
BEST BET Colorado (+5) OUTRIGHT 81-68 at Nebraska snapping a massive 36-game
road losing streak
--3/2
BEST BET Murray State (-20’) COVERS with ease in a 84-51 home rout of Tennessee
State
--3/3
BEST BET Clippers (+4) lose by 26 points as 4-game home win streak is snapped
--3/3
BEST BET Alabama-Birmingham (-3) loses home finale outright 70-65 versus main
rival Memphis
--3/4
BEST BET Dayton (+4) PUSHES in a 60-56 road contest
--3/4
BEST BET New Mexico State/Nevada OVER (163) WINS with ease in a 100-92 shootout
--3/5
BEST BET Georgia Southern (+1’) with six SENIORS suffer double-digit conference
tournament loss
--3/7
BEST BET Florida/Kentucky OVER (141) fails by ONE point in a game with 140
combined points scored
--3/7
BEST BET Boston University (-2’) COVERS in a 70-63 conference tournament road
triumph
--3/8
BEST BET William+Mary/Old Dominion OVER (117) fails
in Colonial Championship with just 113 combined points scored
--3/8
BEST BET William+Mary (+9) COVERS in a 60-53 Colonial
conference championship
OPENING COLLEGE BASKETBALL 5-UNIT EVENT WINS
As predicted Memphis’
record 64-game conference win streak was snapped ON 1/20
*****Ranked #1 NFL for the
entire regular season plus #1 College Bowls up against the nation’s elite
handicappers as professionally monitored at (www.sports-watch.com)*****
OPENING COLLEGE HOOP “5 UNIT” EVENT WINS ON 1/20
As you will see in the
analysis below Memphis
had just snapped the consecutive conference regular season win record that was
held for 56-YEARS. On Wednesday as
predicted that record 64-game winning tear that began in 2006 was snapped by a
Texas El-Paso contingent that had FIVE players with Memphis roots plus almost
an entire coaching staff who at one time was employed by the Tigers. Texas El-Paso (+8’) won OUTRIGHT and in a
personal MONEY LINE (+320) wager
TONIGHT’S SPECIAL “5
UNIT” REDZONE COLLEGE BEST BET (Texas-El Paso +8’ at Memphis in a 8:05 eastern
tipoff broadcast on CBS College Sports):
This past Saturday evening Memphis broke Kentucky’s 56-YEAR old record for
consecutive regular season victories (52) in conference play which puts them in
line to finally lose a game which could very well be this evening against an
opponent who has incredible “Memphis ties” which will be detailed in this
analysis segment. Including the
Conference USA postseason tournament, Memphis
has won an incredible 64 in a row against league opposition with the last
setback way back in March of 2006. Of
course the Memphis head coach during this
streak was the same John Calipari who is now employed
at Kentucky
and is in the running for “coach of the year”.
While Calipari proved to be an excellent
recruiter it remains to be seen if his replacement Josh Pastner
can carry on the winning tradition. The
odds seem to be against his long term success especially since Calipari exited the Memphis
program in a cloud of controversy making one think the Tigers will soon face
the wrath of an NCAA investigation. For
the moment Memphis
continues to make a mockery of what is a very weak conference but without Calipari at the controls the Tigers suddenly have become a
financial drain for bettors. Something
has to give this evening because both Memphis
(0-8 ATS) and Texas-El Paso (0-6 ATS) are currently mired in long slides
against the spread. With Memphis
continuing to win games straight-up the oddsmakers
successfully have been “inflating” their price tags, but with them laying only
“single digits” this evening my personal attention has been grabbed. Tony Barbee is in year #4 as the Texas
El-Paso head coach and he just happened to be on the Memphis
bench the last time the Tigers suffered a conference loss. Barbee was a Memphis
assistant from 2001 through 2006 so he has special MOTIVATION to finally put an
end to the Tigers 64-game Conference USA
winning streak. But the connections do
not end there as UTEP’s assistant coach Tony Madlock actually was a four-year letterman for the Tigers
from 1988-through-1992. Another current El
Paso assistant Milt Wagner was actually director of basketball
operations at Memphis
from 2001-through-2006. UTEP’s current basketball director of operations Mike Babul
was assistant director at Memphis
in 2003-2004. Finally Nathaniel Root
(UTEP assistant director of basketball operations) was a PLAYER for Memphis
from 200-1to-2003. One would think that
the fact that most of the current Miners coaching staff has
ties to Memphis
would be enough, but the story does not end there. Amazingly FIVE different players on the
current Texas-El Paso roster actually call Memphis home and a pair of them
(Jeremy Williams, Myron Strong) will be making their first trip back home in
Miner uniforms. Strong says he grew up
watching the Tigers and dreamed of playing for them. Williams who was a high school teammate of
Strong says quote “this is an experience you live for”. Williams also says that nothing would be
better than to come back home and snap the Memphis
record setting win streak. One of the
reasons why the posted line on tonight’s contest is only “single digits” has to
do with the fact that these two teams statistically are very similar according
to the Conference USA rankings. UTEP is
ranked #4 in average points per game while Memphis
checks in at #5. UTEP is ranked #3 in
conference shooting percentage from the field while Memphis
is close behind at #5 in that category.
The Miners have played well against Memphis
the past two seasons. Last year the
Tigers tamed the Miners 70-63 in El-Paso.
Two years ago in Memphis and with the Tigers having a #1 national
ranking, UTEP led 60-58 with 3:45 to play and actually trailed by ONE point
with 1:18 remaining in what turned out to be a nailbiter. Now you know why I am personally placing a
pair of wagers on Texas-El Paso this evening including the “money line” (+320)
which would give me an enormous return on a rather small investment. Turning to the database here is a 75-PERCENT
SYSTEM (35-12 past dozen years) which plays ON road teams like Texas El-Paso
off a “no cover” where they won straight-up on the scoreboard as a favorite,
against an opponent off consecutive “non” covers where the team also won
outright cast as a favorite. That system
supports Texas-El Paso who is also a whopping 9-1 ATS/ROAD the past three years
after a game where the defense allowed less than 26 “first half” points. To recap we have Texas-El Paso who has FIVE
players with Memphis
ties along with almost the entire coaching staff. All of those Miner personnel will be seeking
to finally put an end to what is now college basketball’s longest regular
season conference winning streak (52) in FIFTY-SIX YEARS
NFL DIVISIONAL PLAYOFF AFC PRIMETIME SWEEP
A special “5 UNIT” Best
Bet bombshell on the Colts (-3’) to cover the first-half cashed a WINNING
ticket as well as a “3 Unit” major move on Indianapolis
in a 20-3 rout of the Ravens (UNDER the total also comes through)
TONIGHT’S NFL “3 UNIT”
TRIPLE PLAY MAJOR SIDE (Colts -6 at home versus Ravens in an 8:15 eastern
kickoff on CBS): Of course there has
been major controversy in Indianapolis in regards to the squad coughing up a chance
to run the table in the regular season where they rested regulars down the
stretch. But the bottom line is that due
to that strategy Indianapolis
is much HEALTHIER than tonight’s opponent.
Last weekend we all saw Baltimore pull
off a stunning upset of a New England
contingent that had won 23 consecutive home playoff outings. But due to massive injuries that Ravens
victory was not nearly as impressive as one would have thought. While the Colts were getting “brow beaten” in
the national media for letting up on the gas pedal, the Patriots lost their #1
receiving option and NFL leader Wes Welker on the final Sunday of the regular
campaign. With his absence all that
Baltimore had to do was double-team New England’s other star receiving option
Randy Moss who just happened to MISS a practice session late in the week due to
injury. New England
was extremely defensive when CBS studio analyst Charley Casserly
reported a couple of weeks ago that superstar Tom Brady was playing with 3
cracked ribs. No matter what the
Patriots said it was obvious that Brady was not near 100% last weekend. On the other side of the football New
England was operating with a patchwork defense that was torn apart
by veterans simply getting too old to perform at a high level. Thus once again it is not worth reading too
far into what appeared to be a superlative effort by Baltimore
last weekend. Even though it did not
come into play during the Wildcard playoff Ravens quarterback Joe Flacco completed only FOUR passes in part due to hip injury
that clearly affected his throwing motion.
One of Baltimore’s
few solid receiving options (veteran tight end Todd Heap) ended up getting his
back twisted and comes into this evening NOT at 100% efficiency. Once again even though it did not become a
major issue last week since they grabbed an early 24-point lead courtesy of
turnovers the fact of the matter is that Baltimore’s
defensive secondary is BANGED UP which should have Peyton Manning
salivating. Even though Indianapolis
struggled for the most part on third-down conversions, there is a reason why
Manning is attempting to become the 15th player to be named MVP and win the
Super Bowl in the same season (most recent way back in 1999). Even though the Ravens stop-unit led by the
emotional Ray Lewis has the ability to harass opposing quarterbacks, Peyton
Manning receives excellent protection and no one is better at making pre-snap
adjustments. Give Manning time and he
will shred a Ravens secondary relying on RESERVE cornerbacks Chris Carr and
Frank Walker who have been forced into the starting lineup. Even thought it seems like an eternity,
Peyton Manning in the regular season finale completed 14-of-18 passes in the
SNOW at Buffalo
before getting pulled in the second stanza.
I am aware that Indianapolis
is operating with a rookie head coach but the fact of the matter is that Jim
Caldwell has been on the Colts staff since 2002. The amazing coaching continuity that the
Colts have enjoyed is major even though often unheralded in the national press. I am also aware that Indianapolis
is 0-3 in the playoffs following a Bye week but all that is going to do is
inspire this group who comes in with a collective chip on their shoulder. According to my database research the fact
that Indianapolis
pulled their defensive starters a couple of weeks ago in the snow makes them an
incredible percentage wager this evening.
In the past three years Indianapolis
is 7-0 ATS after allowing at least 6 yards per play in the prior game. Do I hear 8-0 ATS
anyone?!
NFL DIVISIONAL PLAYOFF NFC (Saints in a 45-14 rout)
NFL PLAYOFF PERCENTAGE
SIDE (Saints -7 at home versus Cardinals in a 4:35 eastern kickoff on
FOX): The key to this selection
surrounds the critical area of TURNOVERS which can swing a football game in an
instant. Of the twelve teams that made
the playoffs Arizona
has committed the most miscues as their turnover margin (-7) is horrible. On the other hand the opportunistic Saints
ranked #2 in the entire NFL with 39 takeaways and a PLUS-ELEVEN turnover margin. A new defensive coordinator along with new
personnel such as safety Darren Sharper (9 interceptions, 3 picks returned for
score) literally transformed the team.
The New Orleans
defense has gone from being the primary weakness to one that has made “game
changing” plays. Regular clients know
that I personally loaded up on Arizona
one week ago as they banded together even though star wide receiver Anquan Boldin (ankle, knee) was
unable to play. It will be much tougher
for Arizona
to cover for Boldin once again this week since they
are now playing on the road. As
mentioned in last Sunday’s analysis many of the Arizona
players were irked that Green Bay
treated both the regular season finale and a preseason exhibition contest
seriously. The shoe is on the other foot
this week as New Orleans
is now the squad that has to prove themselves as that amazing 13-0 start to the
campaign suddenly became ancient history.
One of the main reasons why New Orleans struggled down the stretch was
due to major injuries to the offense which cost tight end Jeremy Shockey (toe) 3 games.
Both Shockey and wide receiver Lance Moore are
expected to be back on the field late this afternoon as well as impact rusher
Pierre Thomas who cracked three ribs in a late season setback. While on the subject of New
Orleans running backs veteran Deuce McAllister will be
in uniform to add EMOTION on the sidelines as a ceremonial team captain. This was a class move by New
Orleans who originally dropped the veteran running back
following the 2008 campaign. Of course
the Saints have much to prove after going 2-3 down the stretch while struggling
in both victories. I love the CONFIDENCE
shown by Saints head coach Sean Payton who actually gave his players most of
last week off. One will never forget
that infamous Monday Night affair which marked the Saints return to the
Superdome following Hurricane Katrina which destroyed the city and there will
be plenty of raw emotion inside that building late this afternoon. One could make a strong argument that the
Saints would not have survived in New
Orleans if not gaining the services of quarterback Drew Brees who has done an amazing job with local HUMANITARIAN
causes off the field of play which has created an extremely strong bond between
Brees and the community. Brees set an NFL
record for completion percentage (.706) and today will face an Arizona
defense that was shredded a week ago (45 points allowed) coughing up a sizeable
early lead. Going into last weekend Arizona
had no less than FIVE INJURED players and they have had a “short week” to
prepare. Last weekend there was no way Arizona
should have been extended into overtime as veteran kicker Neil Rackers missed a very short field goal attempt. One has to wonder about the mental capacity
of Rackers this week which gives the Saints an edge
in special teams. Here is a 74-PERCENT
SYSTEM (34-12 past decade) that goes AGAINST road underdogs of 3’-to-10 points
like Arizona off an upset win as an underdog, and facing an opponent off a road
loss. But the big news from the database
is the fact that New Orleans
is 6-0 ATS the past two years when shaking off an outright road setback. Do I hear 7-0 ATS anyone?!
COLLEGE BASKETBALL REVENGE GAME OF THE YEAR “COVERS” ON 1/16
(95-93 thriller)
TONIGHT’S “4 UNIT”
REDZONE COLLEGE BASKETBALL BEST BET (Idaho
State +4 at home versus Weber
State in a 9:05 eastern
tipoff): To give you an idea how intense
this rivalry is they call this Big Sky Conference clash the “border war”. One year ago in front of their own home fans Idaho
State lost on what was
basically a SCORING MISTAKE which is one of the reasons why they “circled”
tonight’s rematch on their calendar as soon as the schedule came out. In that bitter home setback a year ago a
player from Weber
State was allowed to stay
in the game even though technically he fouled out. That player from Weber
State actually nailed a
pair of critical THREE POINT shots in crunch time when he should have been
sitting on the bench. I am fully aware
that Idaho State
checks in tonight with an awful 4-13 overall record but one can argue that they
had one of the nation’s toughest pre-conference schedules. All Idaho State had to do in the “non” league
portion of their schedule is play on the ROAD against quality opposition (Iowa
State, Bradley, Brigham Young, Utah State, Notre Dame, Utah, Southern
California, Oregon) who have a long term track record of success in
conference’s way above the Big Sky in overall talent. What makes Idaho
State a lethal home
underdog late tonight surrounds the fact that they have hit at least 70-PERCENT
from the free-throw line in 12 of the past 17 outings. Despite an overall record that appears to be
a disaster Idaho
State has actually WON
THE REBOUNDING BATTLE by an average of nearly one board per contest. This team has also hit near 36% of their long
range THREE POINT opportunities (120 of 335) which is not all that bad. Idaho State if coming off a hotly contested
road game at one of the Big Sky’s league leaders and the Bengals actually
trailed by just two points with less than 2-minutes left on the clock. As
mentioned at the top of this analysis Idaho
State was robbed at home in this
rivalry a year ago which saw Weber
State win both
clashes. That actually snapped a run of
10 consecutive games in this bitter series where the clubs alternated
wins-and-losses. Due to the unusual
circumstances which Idaho
State lost at home to
their main rivals last campaign, this is my college
basketball “revenge game of the year”
NFL WILDCARD PLAYOFF GAME OF THE YEAR COVERS
The opening week of the
NFL playoffs wrapped up with the Wildcard System Game of the Year as
Arizona (+2’) won OUTRIGHT in a memorable 51-45 overtime shootout which saw the
Cardinals both blow a sizeable early lead along with a short field goal attempt
at the end of regulation. But the
incredible 22-3 System successfully COVERED the spread yet again
TODAY’S “4 UNIT” REDZONE
NFL BEST BET (Cardinals +2’ at home versus Packers in a 4:40 eastern kickoff on
FOX): Green Bay’s
first team has outscored Arizona
71-10 in five quarters during both the preseason and regular campaign. In addition both of yesterday’s “rematches”
from week-seventeen resulted in broom job.
But the bottom line is that it is costly to overlook an Arizona
squad that defied the odds a year ago and went all the way to the Super
Bowl. It may seem like an eternity but
the national assumption a year ago at this time was that Arizona
was not capable of winning on the road, so they went to Carolina
and shocked the Panthers as a prohibitive playoff underdog. We have had a radical line swing in this NFC
Wildcard contest which actually saw Arizona
open at most offshore locations as a 2’ point favorite. Due to word this morning that Cardinals star
wide receiver Anquan Boldin
(ankle/knee) most likely would not be in the starting lineup, the home team
suddenly became a sizeable underdog. But
according to star quarterback Kurt Warner his Cardinals planned for today’s
game WITHOUT Boldin being involved so I am not going
to overreact to that injury. After doing
some serious digging I can confirm that 4 of the 5 Arizona players who were on
the injured list WILL participate late this afternoon including star defensive
back Dominique Rodgers-Cromartie who was carted off
the field a week ago with what appeared to be a season-ending knee
problem. In my mind the bigger news is
that Green Bay’s
defensive secondary is NOT 100% healthy including star Charles Woodson who is
tied for the NFL lead with 9 interceptions.
Woodson left last Sunday’s contest late in the second quarter with a
sore shoulder and he is the key cog of the Packers stop-unit. With Boldin most
likely out of the lineup, Woodson will be assigned to Arizona’s
Larry Fitzgerald so his overall health is critical. I will admit that Green
Bay has responded well to their new defensive coordinator Dom Capers
who has always been successful in that area dating back to his days directing
the initial campaigns of the Carolina
franchise. One thing Capers loves to do
out of the “3-4” alignment is employ the BLITZ but Kurt Warner is one of the
league’s best signal callers reading those blitz packages. According to Warner he is more confident of
making plays against the Packers secondary as opposed to that of San
Francisco who defeated him in a Monday Night regular
season telecast. Warner is participating
in his 12th playoff game and there is a shot at age 38 that this will be his
final postseason push. Of course this
pick is dangerous since Green Bay
is on a current 7-1 tear where the passing ratio of quarterback Aaron Rodgers
has been nothing short of spectacular.
But in the beginning of this season Rodgers was constantly harassed
operating behind a shaky offensive line that repeatedly gave him very little
time to throw the football and the fact of the matter is that Arizona’s
stop-unit has a grand total of 45 SACKS.
On the other side of the football Arizona
led the entire NFL in “red zone” offense with 38 touchdowns in 53 opportunities
(70-PERCENT efficiency inside the opposition 20-yard line). Prior to last Sunday’s home game which was
played late in the afternoon, the Cardinals were informed that the possibility
of gaining an opening-round bye was remote which caused head coach Ken Whisenhunt to play very CONSERVATIVE. Thus I am not going to overreact to last
week’s rout by the Packers who played to win in the desert southwest. With Arizona
operating a “vanilla” attack giving away no secrets last Sunday, they are
actually in an advantageous spot late this afternoon. This has been a staggering campaign for the
Cardinals franchise who did NOT lose games on
consecutive weeks since way back in 1975.
In addition Arizona
is only the second Super Bowl loser in the past nine years to actually make the
playoffs in the following season.
Turning to the database here is an UNDEFEATED database angle which sees Arizona
6-0 ATS/HOME the past three years after scoring 3-or-less opening half points
in the prior game. Here is a whopping
22-3 SYSTEM (88% last decade involving a pair of quality team that have won
60-to-75% of their games) which plays ON teams like Arizona revenging a loss
where they scored less than two touchdowns, with a near pick-em line of +3/-3 which is the case today
5 UNIT BCS CHAMPIONSHIP BOMBSHELL WINS
2010 PREMIUM COLLEGE FOOTBALL CONCLUDES 12-5
ALABAMA covers the BCS Championship
12-5 PREMIUM COLLEGE FOOTBALL IN 2010
--1/1 “5 UNIT” Bowl event Northwestern/Auburn OVER (55) WINS
in a 38-35 shootout
--1/1 ROSE BOWL
BEST BET
Ohio State
(+4) OUTRIGHT 26-17 upset of Oregon
--1/1 BOWL
PARLAY Florida
State (+3) OUTRIGHT 33-21
upset in Bobby Bowden’s finale
--1/1 BOWL
PARLAY Penn
State (-1) COVERS in a
19-17 triumph over LSU
--1/2 BEST BET East Carolina
(+7’) COVERS in an overtime 20-17 thriller
--1/2 Cotton Bowl Total Mississippi/Oklahoma State UNDER
(51) WINS in very low scoring 21-7 contest (23 point cover)
--1/2 South Florida (-7) COVERS in a 27-3 rout of Northern
Illinois
--1/2 Liberty Bowl Total
Arkansas/East Carolina
UNDER (63’) WINS with ease in 20-17 overtime game (26’ point cover)
--1/4 TCU (-7) loses outright 17-10 in the Fiesta Bowl
--1/4 Fiesta Bowl Boise State/Texas Christian UNDER (54)
WINS with ease in very low scoring 17-10 contest (27 point cover)
--1/5 Georgia Tech (-5’) loses outright versus Iowa
in the Orange Bowl (first time in 2 years
Yellow Jackets fail to cover against quality defensive opponent)
--1/5 Proposition first score field goal or safety (+180)
fails
--1/6 Troy State/Central Michigan
UNDER (63) fails in 44-41 Double-OT shootout (1:17 away from covering in
regulation)
--1/7 Special “5 UNIT” BCS Championship Best Bet
Texas/Alabama OVER (23) in the first half WINS with 30 combined points scored
in the opening half
--1/7 BCS Championship Alabama
(-4) COVERS in 37-21 triumph versus Texas
--1/7 BCS Championship Texas/Alabama UNDER (17’) in
second-half fails to cover
--1/7 BCS Championship Proposition special teams or defensive
touchdown (+135) WINS
Ranked #1 NFL and #2
college football for the entire regular season up
against the nation’s elite handicappers as professionally monitored at (www.sports-watch.com)
30-19 NFL PREMIUM WAGERS SINCE MID-DECEMBER
58-PERCENT ALL PREMIUM FOOTBALL
(1602115) FINAL NINETY-SEVEN DAYS
NEW YEARS SWEEP
Including special “5
UNIT” bombshell Northwestern/Auburn OVER (55) in a 38-35 shootout
Plus a ROSE BOWL BEST BET as Ohio
State (+4) wins OUTRIGHT
Football Best Bet sides-and-totals
incredible “17-6” in month of December
Ranked #1 NFL and #2
college football for the entire regular season up
against the nation’s elite handicappers as professionally monitored at (www.sports-watch.com)
3-1 BOWL POSTSEASON “5
UNIT” BEST BET BOMBSHELLS
Including the BCS
Championship OVER (23) WINNING on 1/7 as combined 30 points were tallied in the
opening half
ALABAMA
COVERS THE BCS CHAMPIONSHIP
COLLEGE FOOTBALL
NATIONAL CHAMPIONSHIP (Alabama -4 versus Texas
in the BCS Championship kicking off at 8:35 eastern on ABC-TV): They say you cannot handicap turnovers which
are critical in postseason football contests such as this. In 492 career carries Alabama’s Heisman
Trophy winning rusher Mark Ingram has turned the football over just ONCE. In 314 career pass
attempts Alabama
quarterback Greg McElroy has thrown only FOUR interceptions which means that
the well coached Crimson Tide do NOT commit critical mistakes. After five consecutive years where the BCS
Championship produced upsets, the FAVORITE has successfully covered the spread
in consecutive seasons and I expect that pattern to continue. So far the BCS-sanctioned Bowls have seen
underdogs pull off outright upsets except for one squad (Florida)
that just happens to operate out of the highly-regarded Southeastern
Conference. I will be the first to admit
that the SEC as a whole is not as solid as in recent seasons and their overall
Bowl record this campaign (5-4) is certainly reflective of that. But the fact of the matter is that Alabama
and Florida
have proven to be a step ahead of the entire college football field since their
respective head coaches are the best RECRUITERS in the game. There is certainly plenty of motivation for
the Crimson Tide as they try to wipe out memories of last year’s horrible Sugar
Bowl performance where they were dominated by an opponent out of a “non” BCS aligned conference.
In addition tonight is a rare shot for Alabama to finally defeat Texas
on the field as dating all the way back to 1902 they have gone “0-7-1” against
the Longhorns (last encounter back in 1982).
The key to this selection has to do with “the pits” where games are
ultimately won or lost on both the offensive and defensive lines. Since they had to replace 3 offensive line
starters it was originally thought that Alabama
would struggle on offense but that line was good enough to produce a Heisman
Trophy campaign by running back Mark Ingram.
For the most part Ingram sealed his Heisman by rushing for 113 yards and
three touchdowns in that shocking SEC Championship game upset of Florida
where he had a game changing 69 yard catch-and-run. The Crimson Tide put up 32 points against the
nation’s top-ranked Division I-A defense which was allowing less than 10 points
per contest. Of course Alabama’s
defense as expected was also spectacular during the regular season permitting
just 11 points per contest and that stop-unit certainly neutralized Florida
star quarterback Tim Tebow. Tonight on ABC the announcing crew is going
to be talking a lot about 354-POUND Alabama
senior defensive tackle Terrence Cody who has one more chance to perform on the
national stage. What I like most about Alabama’s
defense is that they “disguise” coverages similar to
what the NFL New England Patriots have done for years at the professional
level. I can confirm that a substantial
amount of offshore money has been plunked down on Texas
since they have marquee quarterback Colt McCoy who has received non-stop
national press coverage. But in the Big
12 Championship game against a top-notch defense McCoy was sacked NINE
different times. Even though he does not
receive much national coverage Alabama’s
starting quarterback just happens to be UNDEFEATED as a starter dating back to
his high school days inside the state of Texas. Greg McElroy operated on the high school
level for three years behind future Missouri
star signal caller Chase Daniel and then served as a caddy for two years behind
John Parker Wilson at Alabama. To make a long story short McElroy used his
time on the sideline to be more strategic and has made himself a cerebral
player. After some ugly moments in the
traditional Iron Bowl rivalry against Auburn, McElroy literally saved the
Tide’s season leading a 15-play/79 yard drive that featured 3 different “third
down conversions” and was capped by a 4-yard touchdown pass with a mere
84-seconds remaining on the clock. Flush
with CONFIDENCE McElroy was on fire early against Florida
opening the game with an 18-yard completion and deftly mixed pass and run on
the drive which led to immediate points on the scoreboard. Of course McElroy is not as popular a name as
McCoy which has helped create some “value” in tonight’s line even though the
Tide are favored. I will admit that in
the last 7 BCS National Championship clashes, the team with a Heisman Trophy
winner has ended up losing 6 different times.
Even though Alabama’s
Mark Ingram was this year’s winner, he is NOT a quarterback which is rare for
the Heisman award which almost exclusively is given to signal callers
annually. In the Sun Bowl contest
featuring Heisman hopeful Toby Gerhart, the Stanford
running back gained more than 100 yards on the ground so I for one am not
worried about Ingram this evening. I am
aware that Texas defended the run better than anyone in the country permitting
just 62 yards per contest, but consider that most Big 12 Conference offenses
operate out of the pass-oriented “spread” attack so that aforementioned figure
is a bit skewed. The fact of the matter
is that Texas
and the end of last season lost a pair of defensive linemen and a tackle to the
NFL draft. That spells big trouble this
evening as the Longhorns attempt to defend an Alabama
run-oriented attack which tends to wear down the opposition by the time the
fourth quarter arrives. The last time Alabama
was in the “preseason” Top-10 was back in the year 2000 and now a decade later are in the National Championship. At long last a proud Alabama
program finally broke through with a Heisman Trophy winner and they are way
overdue to walk away with a National Championship trophy. As mentioned earlier Nick Saban
is one of the game’s best RECRUITERS and it comes as no shock that in a very
short period of time he has lifted Alabama
to elite status
It was a New Years Day SWEEP highlighted by a “5 UNIT” Best
Bet event (38-35 shootout in the Outback Bowl)
TODAY’S SPECIAL “5 UNIT”
REDZONE BEST BET TOTAL (Northwestern versus Auburn OVER 54’ in an 11 AM eastern
kickoff on ESPN): It was a little more
than one year ago when Auburn was shutout by bitter rival Alabama which ended
up sealing the fate of head coach Tom Tuberville who
was fired. The Tigers entered this
campaign with a brand new coaching staff which included offensive coordinator
Gus Malzahn.
To make a long story short Malzahn was the architect of Tulsa’s
attack that led all of college football in total offense both in 2007
and 2008. Malzahn’s
elaborate schemes made an instant impact in the “non”
conference portion of Auburn’s
schedule when the Tigers went OVER the total in the initial 4 contests. Most of you reading this analysis know that
the Southeastern Conference is known for its physical defense which is one of
the main reasons why Auburn
played above the spot just twice during league play. The bottom line is that the Tigers this
morning are seeking to play OVER in every “non league” outing this entire
season which includes a massive 63 point late season effort against Furman in a
contest that was not on the big board.
Senior quarterback Chris Todd was ranked 4th in the SEC Conference with
21 touchdown passes while senior Ben Tate also had a #4 league ranking with
more than 1,200 rush yards on the ground. Auburn
for the entire regular season averaged an eye opening 33 points and 432 yards
per outing. But the once “vanilla”
offense of Auburn is not the only main factor in this special “5 Unit”
selection as Northwestern just happens to operate with a high-tempo “spread”
offense led by quarterback Mike Kafka who passed for 2,900 yards in the
air. Due to an injury Kafka stepped in a
year ago and ran for a Big Ten quarterback record 217 yards in a single
contest. In 2009 Northwestern’s
signal caller not only passed for 12 touchdowns, but also ran for 7
scores. What really impressed me about
the Wildcats quarterback who has excellent ground skills along with efficient
passing numbers is that Kafka had a conference-low 4 interceptions even though
he led the league in attempts during the Big Ten portion of the schedule. Getting back to Auburn
quarterback Chris Todd he destroyed “non” conference
opposition ripping 3 different team for a combined THIRTEEN touchdown
tosses. Todd had better have a big
effort today because the Tigers defense actually allowed during the regular
season an SEC league high 27 points per contest. Going into the record books I see that Northwestern’s only previous Bowl meeting with an SEC
opponent resulted in a high scoring 48-28 shootout a dozen years ago. The Wildcats are also involved in a
66-PERCENT SYSTEM (56-29 past five years in a battle between a pair of
“winning” squads). This system takes
teams like Northwestern after going below the posted spot by 49+ combined
points the past seven outings OVER the total.
To put this total in perspective Auburn has played OVER in every “non”
league game this season and has one of college football’s most successful
offensive coordinators, while Northwestern operates out of a high-tempo
“spread” formation sure to keep the scoreboard operator plenty busy
ROSE BOWL BEST BET WIN (Ohio
State OUTRIGHT upset New Years Day)
TODAY'S "3
UNIT" REDZONE BEST BET COLLEGE FOOTBALL SIDE (Ohio
State +4 versus Oregon
in the Rose Bowl Game kicking off at 5:05 eastern on ABC-TV): Due to what was a disastrous Bowl campaign a
year ago, the Big 10 Conference has suffered a sagging national
reputation. To make a long story short
the Big 10 entrant in the past three Rose Bowl contests have had no chance due
to the fact that USC was involved. For
those that have been on the Trojans over the past decade in high profile games,
you know that head coach Pete Carroll does "not let up on the pedal"
so to speak. Even though the Pac 10
Conference is having a rough postseason, it comes as no personal shock that USC
already successfully covered the spread in their 2009 Bowl outing. But the mere fact that USC is essentially not
playing a "home" game inside the Roase Bowl
on New Years Day actually gives the Big Ten entrant a fighting chance. This is Ohio
State's first Rose Bowl
since a WIN against a Pac 10 opponent back in 1996. The Buckeyes have lost 3 consecutive BCS Bowl
outings but their defense (just 12 ppg allowed) has
the ability to slow an Oregon
attack that is putting up 37 per pop.
Much to my personal chagrin we had an "offense versus defense"
matchup in the Bowls yesterday where the superior defensive squad (Air Force)
won outright against an offensive favorite (Houston)
and this particular contest has a similar feel.
I will admit that Oregon
has won 10 of their most recent 11 outings where they essentially
"outscored" the opposition.
But it was way back in week-one when Oregon's
high-octane attack was handcuffed on the road by Boise
State who also is
appearing in a BCS-sanctioned Bowl.
Another negative regarding Oregon
is the fact that they no longer have veteran Mike Belotti
as their head coach. We saw last night
in the Peach Bowl Tennessee
get dominated by a Virginia Tech squad led by a veteran head coach. There is no question that Lane Kiffin has added energy to the Tennessee
program, but last night was a learning experience for him as a "first
year" head coach preparing a squad for a postseason Bowl. Oregon's
Chip Kelly also is a "first year" head coach who has never led a
contingent into a postseason Bowl contest.
The Ducks have not been to a Rose Bowl game since way back in 1995 when
they promptly LOST on the scoreboard. To
make a long story short Ohio
State desperately wants
to win this game after suffering 3 consecutive BCS Bowl setbacks including a
pair in the high profile national championship game. As per normal for this school the Buckeyes
have an outstanding defense that is allowing just 12 points and 261 total yards
per game. That Ohio
State stop-unit also did
NOT allow a 100-yard rusher against them all season. My database research indicates that the
Buckeyes are an eye popping 7-0 ATS this year after a game where they forced 3+
turnovers. Ohio
State also has COVERED
SIX IN A ROW on the road against "winning" opponents!
MONDAY PREMIUM FOOTBALL 9-3 FINAL FIVE WEEKS (including 5-0 sides)
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final twelve weeks
MONDAY NFL FOOTBALL REGULAR SEASON FINALE SWEEP (12/28)
An incredible “24-13”
overall Monday Football performance wrapped up with the heavy underdog Bears (+8’)
stunning the Vikings OUTRIGHT in a 36-30 overtime thriller. Monday’s Proposition wager on Bears kicker
Robbie Gould OVER (5’) point cashed a winning ticket in the OPENING QUARTER
TONIGHT’S “3 UNIT” REDZONE
NFL BEST BET (Bears +8’ at home versus Vikings in a 6:35 eastern kickoff): Of course the big story involving Minnesota
in the past week has surrounded the supposed feud between Bret Favre and his
head coach. Chicago
should find some inspiration this evening after hearing that Vikings head coach
Brad Childress will pull Favre once the team has a substantial lead. I do not have to tell you what happened to
the undefeated Colts when they gave Peyton Manning an early hook on
Sunday. One could make a very strong
argument that tonight is Chicago’s
own personal Super Bowl since this is their home finale and is being broadcast
on the national stage. Next week Chicago
will wrap up what has been a deplorable campaign at Detroit
against an opponent who has lost more games since mid-2007 than any other squad
in NFL history. While the Bears will
have problems focusing against a Divisional opponent they do not respect, they
will have complete focus this evening as they attempt to damage the playoff
seeding of a hated opponent. For those
of you who feel Chicago who is on a disastrous 0-7 ATS
slide has no chance of making us some money this evening, consider that Minnesota
just happens to be an awful 1-7 SU in their most recent eight visits to Solider
Field. Even though the weather
conditions are not supposed to be all that bad foe
this time of the year, temperatures are forecast to be in the low 20’s which
actually has some significance statistically.
The great Bret Favre is 0-7 in his last seven ROAD starts (3 touchdowns
versus 13 interceptions) when the game time temperature is below the 39-degree
mark. In “post Thanksgiving” starts
dating back to 2005 Favre also has a negative record (12-14) throwing twice as
many interceptions as touchdown passes in that span. Turning to the other side of the football
field Chicago is UNDEFEATED in front of their own HOME fans (10-0) the past ten
times the game time temperature at Solider Field has been below the freezing
mark and that certainly is the case with tonight’s last kickoff time. Following Sunday’s results we now know who
all of the playoff entrants are in the NFC but there are still questions
regarding both seeding and home field advantage. With New Orleans
dropping their second consecutive home contest yesterday, Minnesota
still has a shot at grabbing a possible top NFC seed, but that has also led to
some line inflation this evening. That
line has shot up from an opening figure of 7’ points since Chicago
has been decimated by defensive injuries and both of their starting safeties
may miss this evening. Chicago’s
defense has played most of the way without vocal leader Brian Urlacher who made his teammates accountable for mistakes
made. Bears defensive tackle Tommie
Harris (knee) may not make it back on the field for the remainder of the
season. Of course Jay Cutler’s maiden
season in Chicago
has been a disaster as he currently leads the entire NFL with 25
interceptions. Even though Chicago
has been a financial disaster for bettors having failed to cover the spread in
7 consecutive games, my database research indicates that there are two very
strong SYSTEMS that support the Bears.
Here is a 63-PERCENT SYSTEM (125-76 since 1983) that plays ON slow
starting underdogs (+3’/+10’) like Chicago outscored by an average of at least
5 points per game in the opening half, after 3 consecutive games where the
offense has put 17-or-less points on the scoreboard. Here is a 70-PERCENT SYSTEM (65-30 since
1983) that plays ON home underdogs like Chicago
off a road blowout loss of at least two touchdowns, in the month of December.
To add a bit more fuel to the fire Chicago
is an excellent 10-2 ATS/HOME long term when REVENGING a road loss against an
opponent of at least 14 points in margin.
With Chicago
losing one month ago by a 36-10 count at the Metrodome,
that 10-2 spread angle involving the Bears applies tonight. The bottom line is
that all of the national attention in this Monday Football season finale will
be placed on both the Vikings and Bret Favre which will ultimately motivate Chicago. I will wrap up this analysis with a late
breaking INJURY note as Minnesota
star defensive tackle Pat Williams will NOT be in the starting lineup. The major impact of that injury is that Minnesota
will not be as strong defending the run this evening. If Chicago
mounts any type of rushing attack, much pressure will be taken off the
shoulders of troubled quarterback Jay Cutler
OPENING BOWL “5 UNIT” EVENT WINS ON CHRISTMAS EVE
With a combined 40% of
their offensive touchdown potential sidelined, Nevada’s
high octane offense was held to just 10 points which helped UNDER the total
come through in a 45-10 Hawaii Bowl rout
TONIGHT’S SPECIAL “5
UNIT” REDZONE BEST BET COLLEGE FOOTBALL TOTAL (Nevada versus Southern Methodist
UNDER 72’ in a Hawaii Bowl 8:05 eastern kickoff on ESPN): Due to injury and academics, Nevada will be
WITHOUT a pair of 1,000 yard rushers who combined on 54% of the team’s yards on
the ground along with 40-PERCENT of the offensive touchdowns. It is easy to see why the oddsmakers
posted the highest total of the Bowl season to date since we have a pair of
awful defenses involved. Southern
Methodist is equally bad both defending the run (#88) and pass (#82) with
extremely low national rankings in each category. It was one year ago when Nevada ranked dead
LAST in Division I-A defending the pass and amazingly in 2009 finished the
regular season “second-to-last” against the pass. To make matters even worse Nevada’s
second-year defensive coordinator has already LEFT the team in order to become
head coach at Portland
State. The Wolfpack also
have major personnel issues on their stop-unit as both a linebacker and safety
has been SUSPENDED for this game due to off-the-field violations. At this point you must be wondering why I am
crazy enough to be personally pounding UNDER the total even though Southern
Methodist head coach June Jones (run and shoot) and Nevada
leader Chris Ault (Pistol) operate elaborate and highly successful offensive
sets. The main reason why I love the UNDER
has to do with serious issues involving Nevada’s record setting offensive
backfield that saw 3 different players run for more than 1,000 yards on the
ground. One of those running backs Vai Taua ranked #9 in the country
averaging 122 rush yards per contest. It
was Taua (10 rushing touchdowns) that stepped in a
year ago and rambled for more than 1,500 yards on the ground in relief of
injured star Luke Lippincott who was the Western Athletic Conference rushing
champ in 2007. Lippincott was granted an
extra year of eligibility in 2009 but the senior has played his last game due
to toe surgery. Both Lippincott and Taua (academics) are sitting OUT the Hawaii Bowl which is
going to put a ton of extra pressure on star quarterback Kaepernick
who came into this campaign MINUS both of his top 2008
wide receivers who graduated. As for SMU
their quarterback Kyle Pardon made only five starts after relieving injured
starter Bo Levi Mitchell. To make a long
story short the Mustangs are NOT masters of coach June
Jones’ infamous run-and-shoot attack yet even though they do have a #28
national ranking in the passing department.
Tonight marks the first time in 25 long years that SMU has been in a
postseason Bowl game which means they have an extra contest to build confidence
for next campaign. Even though the SMU
defensive “3-4” alignment did not produce the desired statistical results, the
fact of the matter is that they have a lot of athletes at linebacker which
offsets a lack of bodies on the line.
The Mustangs have a lot of speed on defense according their coach and
tonight they get to face a severely “limited” offensive opponent WITHOUT two
players who combined to account for 40-PERCENT of the squad’s touchdowns. My database research indicates that Southern
Methodist long term has gone a staggering 7-0 UNDER/ROAD against quality
offensive opponents who average at least 31 points per contest. Here is a 77-PERCENT SYSTEM (34-10 past
decade exclusive to BOWL games) which takes teams like SMU and Nevada in a
non-conference affair featuring a pair of “second tier” Division I-A
conferences UNDER the total
COLLEGE BOWL GIFT CHRISTMAS EVE (Southern Methodist 45-10
OUTRIGHT rout)
COLLEGE FOOTBALL
INTANGIBLE SIDE (Southern Methodist +12’ versus Nevada
in an 8:05 eastern kickoff from the Hawaii Bowl on ESPN): Nevada
football had already gained a bad reputation of poor fan support for postseason
Bowl games which is one of the reasons why they were dispatched to Hawaii
on Christmas Eve. Nevada’s
negative reputation is not going to improve in 2009 as they have sold only 100
of their ticket allotment which totaled more than 5,500. To make a long story short Nevada
is going to have hardly any fan support inside a Stadium where the locals are
going to be rooting for head coach June Jones who has reached legendary status
on the island. Hawaii
was a disastrous 0-12 on the football field in 1998 which was one year before
Jones arrived and immediately turned the program around with his infamous “run
and shoot” offensive attack. Following
2007 when he led the Rainbow Warriors to a BCS postseason Bowl, Jones bolted
the program after the Hawaii
administration failed to upgrade facilities and provide the needed financial
incentives. June Jones arrived at SMU a
year ago and had problems reviving a once proud program that at the end of the
campaign had lost 21 of its last 22 games.
Despite a lousy 2008 overall record (1-11) Jones still found reason for
optimism as 4 of the 8 setback in conference play were by 7-or-less
points. An extremely young contingent
also gained valuable experience which parlayed into a 2009 season (7-5) which
saw the squad make the nation’s biggest turnaround. Southern Methodist very quietly has been one
of college football’s best stories as they are back in the postseason Bowl
business for the first time in 25 YEARS.
Most of you reading this analysis will remember when a scandal-ridden
Mustangs program received the NCAA “death penalty” which shut down the entire
program in both 1987 and 1988. Locally
Bowl officials were disappointed that hometown Hawaii
did not qualify for the postseason, but they are thrilled to welcome back
Mustangs coach June Jones who spent an entire decade reviving the Rainbow
Warriors program. As mentioned above in
the Best Bet totals analysis Nevada
who set an NCAA record with 3 different 1,000 rushers will be WITHOUT two of
them. Senior rusher Luke Lippincott (toe
surgery) and Kai Taua (academics) will not play after
accounting for 54% of Nevada’s
rushing yards and 40% of the team touchdowns.
To make matters worse Nevada
SUSPENDED a pair of defenders (linebacker and safety) due to off-the-field
issues. Even the coaching staff took a
hit as Nevada’s defensive coordinator has
already LEFT the program to become new head coach at Portland
State. Here is a 77-PERCENT SYSTEM (30-9 the past
decade in non-conference play) which plays AGAINST heavy favorites like Nevada
(-10’/-21 points) who have won 60-to-80% of their outings, against an opponent
with a winning overall record. That
system supports SMU
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