Two Month Double Dose package now through the NCAA Championship and more from the
handicapper “19-8” with all premium sides-and-totals so far in February on the
heels of SUNDAY’S SWEEP
SAINTS-AND-UNDER
A record setting football season concludes with a “5 UNIT” Best Bet triumph
4-0 SUNDAY
SIDES-AND-TOTALS
--“5 UNIT” Super Bowl
Total UNDER (57) WINS in a contest with 48 combined points scored
--Super Bowl side Saints
(+5) OUTRIGHT 31-17 in stunning upset of Colts
--BEST BET college Canisius (+6) COVERS with ease in a near outright upset
(73-72 final score)
--NHL/NBC special
Penguins/Capitals OVER (6’) WINS with ease in a 5-4
marquee shootout
Football Best Bets wrap up (23-14) since 12/12
All Football BEST BETS 60 PERCENT (71-48) final 100
days of coverage
*****Ranked #1 NFL for the
entire regular season plus #1 College Bowls up against the nation’s elite
handicappers as professionally monitored at (www.sports-watch.com) *****
13-3 premium service TOTALS
tear (including Super Bowl 5-Unit Under)
ALL SIDES+TOTALS 22-11 THIS PAST WEEK
--Sunday Super Bowl “5 Unit” BEST BET Total Saints/Colts
UNDER (57) WINS in game with 48 combined points scored
--Sunday Super Bowl side Saints (+5) OUTRIGHT upset 31-17
against Colts
--Sunday
College BEST BET Canisius (+6) COVER with ease in a near outright upset
(73-72 final score)
--Sunday NHL/NBC special Penguins/Capitals OVER (6’) WINS in a 5-4 shootout
--Saturday BEST BET Tennessee-Martin (-1) fails to cover in
a 74-68 home setback against a depleted opponent who kicked 4 players off the
squad
--Saturday BEST BET William+Mary
(-2) COVERS in a 59-56 road triumph at Georgia State
--Saturday ESPN2 Dayton
(-3) COVERS with ease in a 90-65 blowout of Xavier
--Saturday ESPN Duke/Boston College
UNDER (141’) WINS with ease in low scoring affair with
129 combined points scored
--Saturday ESPN Michigan State/Illinois UNDER (138) fails
in a 78-73 contest
--Saturday ESPNU Nevada
(+9) barely misses by TWO points in a 76-65 road setback
--Saturday FREE pick Northern Iowa
(-10) fails to cover in 55-52 straight-up home win
--Friday BEST BET Brown (+5’) fails to cover in a 85-75 setback where they were actually leading for more
than an entire half on the highway
--Friday NBA Rockets (+5) OUTRIGHT in a 101-83 romp at
Grizzlies
--Friday NCAA Montana (-4) COVERS with ease in a 75-61 rout
of Weber State
--Friday FREE pick Lakers (-8) lose outright at home in
rare setback at Staples
Center
--Thursday BEST BET Tennessee
Tech (+11) fails to cover in a 76-58 contest at Eastern
Kentucky
--Thursday ESPN Notre Dame (-3) COVERS with ease in a 83-65
rout of Cincinnati
--Thursday ESPN2 Total Georgia Tech/Duke UNDER (145) fails in
a game with 153 combined points scored
--Thursday NBA/TNT Blazers (+2) OUTRIGHT 96-93 upset of
Spurs
--Thursday FOX-NET Washington (-10) fails to cover in a
game they won outright by just “six” points
--Thursday FREE pick Long Beach State
(-5’) loses outright at home versus Cal-Fullerton
--Wednesday BEST BET Alabama-Birmingham (+7’) fails to
cover in a “ten point” road setback
--Wednesday BEST BET Idaho/Utah State OVER (131) WINS in a 80-62 shootout
--Wednesday West Virginia
(-10) COVERS in a 70-51 blowout of West
Virginia
--Wednesday NC State/Virginia UNDER (135) WINS in low
scoring 59-47 contest
--Wednesday NBA Warriors (+12) COVER in 110-101 contest at
Mavericks
--Wednesday FREE pick South Florida (+13) OUTRIGHT upset at
Georgetown
--Tuesday ESPN Mississippi/Kentucky OVER (151) wins in
85-75 shootout
--Tuesday NBA Rockets (-7) wins in a 119-97 home rout of
Warriors
--Tuesday Best Bet (Tennessee
State0 postponed due to leak in roof
--Tuesday FREE pick Pacers (+1) win with ease in 130-115
NBA home rout of Raptors
--Monday BEST BET Mavericks/Jazz UNDER (199) wins in a
104-92 contest
--Monday ESPN Total Texas/Oklahoma State UNDER (151’) wins
with ease in a 72-60 final verdict
--Monday FREE pick Iona
(-10) covers with ease in a 72-53 home romp of Canisius
All college basketball BEST BETS 4-1 two weeks ago
and 12-6 for the entire month of January
NFL PRO BOWL BEST BET WIN TWO WEEKS AGO SUNDAY
ALL “BEST BETS” 131-120 SINCE MONTH OF AUGUST
4-1-1 COLLEGE BASKETBALL BEST BETS TWO WEEKS AGO
--Monday no college Best Bet
--Tuesday ESPN South Carolina (+7’) OUTRIGHT upset of #1 ranked Kentucky
--Wednesday Texas A+M
(+5’) fails to cover by BUCKET in a 76-69 setback at Oklahoma State
--Thursday Arkansas (+3’) OUTRIGHT 67-62 versus Mississippi
State
--Thursday Seton Hall/South Florida OVER (147) WINS in 76-74 overtime tussle
--Friday no college Best Bet
--Saturday Auburn (+1) OUTRIGHT in 58-57 home thriller versus rival Alabama
--Saturday Washington State/Washington OVER (156) PUSHES in 92-64 contest
--Sunday no college Best Bet (but “3-1” overall college performance)
SUPER BOWL “5 UNIT” TOTALS WIN (48 combined points scored)
TONIGHT’S SPECIAL “5 UNIT” REDZONE
BEST BET TOTAL (Super Bowl UNDER 57’ in a 6:25 eastern kickoff on CBS): This was an unusual postseason where not only
did the higher seeds prosper but almost all operated out of “domed”
stadiums. Basically this is the first
“true” game in awhile that is actually being played outdoors and I am taking
advantage. We did have an outdoor game
in Miami last
Sunday and the Pro Bowl as predicted soared above a total that was almost the
exact same as we have this evening. In
the Pro Bowl defenses cannot blitz and are forced into “one on one” coverage so
the total deserves to be sky high, but I am not sure a championship game is
deserving of a similar spot. Of course
the oddsmakers had no choice but to post the highest
Super Bowl total ever due to the fact that both offenses have record setting
quarterbacks as Drew Brees led the NFL in passer
rating (109) and Peyton Manning was not far behind (104.6). Both signal callers passed for more than
4,300 yards and at least 33 touchdowns which are just some of the mind boggling
statistics. But the bottom line is that
both of these teams have played UNDER “inflated” spots this season which tells
me that have just enough defensive presence.
New Orleans actually went 3-1 UNDER
against opponents from the American Conference with one of them UNDER an
enormous spot (57) against New England and Tom
Brady (quarterback of the decade). For
those of you who may be wondering there were a ton of points scored in that
Saints/Patriots contest (38-17 final score) but the oddsmakers
bumped up the number just enough to make some money for themselves and we have
a similar scenario here. The highest
spot for Indianapolis this season was 50’ points
versus Houston
and the game easily went UNDER the total in a 20-17 contest. It is interesting note that the Colts slipped
above the spot in 5 of 6 chances this season when the over/under figure was in
the “low to mid 40’s” but that obviously is not the case tonight. I want to take all of you back to the 2006
NFC Championship game when New Orleans lost at Chicago primarily due to
a porous defense that gave up too many points.
Despite their high-octane attack the Saints were never a serious
contender for the Super Bowl until this campaign when they hired a marquee
DEFENSIVE coordinator. For those who may
not be aware New Orleans
head coach Sean Payton actually “deferred” some of his
salary so that the team could sign veteran coordinator Gregg Williams who
preaches “old school” physical football.
In the preseason Williams hammered home that his personnel needed to be
aggressive on every down and go for the football. It comes as no personal shock that the Saints
ended up leading the league in “turnover ratio” and it all has to do with
Williams who in 1993 learned his craft while serving as a special teams coach
alongside then Houston Oilers defensive coordinator Buddy Ryan. Of course this is the same Buddy Ryan who
whose infamous “46 defense” revolutionized the NFL in the 1980’s and delivered
the Chicago Bears of 1985 a Super Bowl title.
Like his mentor Gregg Williams believes in going after the opposing
quarterback and that is exactly what the Saints accomplished in the NFC
Championship where they constantly “hurried” Bret Favre and at one point drove
him to the sidelines with an injury. In
the Divisional playoff victory against Arizona
the New Orleans
front-four led by 307-pound tackle Sedrick Ellis
repeatedly pushed Kurt Warner’s offensive line back in his face. I am fully aware that both NFC playoff contests
involving New Orleans were very high scoring by
a key factor is that both Minnesota and Arizona’s stop-units
were riddled with INJURIES. Due to those
injuries Arizona
became the first team ever to allow at least 45 points in consecutive
postseason contests. Minnesota in the Divisional round saw one of
their best pass rushers suffer a significant injury and they were already
operating with a rookie middle linebacker.
This particular Super Bowl reminds me of the Patriots/Giants matchup a
few years ago as the only way an underdog can win is to rattle a superstar
quarterback by shredding his trusted offensive line and presenting so many
defensive looks that the final whistle blows before he can figure out how to
respond. The most successful NFL team in
the past decade was New England where coach Bill Belichick was a master
of disguising a multitude of coverages that would
confuse the opposition. Of course the
big media story this week has been the health of Indianapolis star defensive rusher Dwight Freeney but the Colts during the regular season often
played without him. Indianapolis very quietly has a “hard hat”
defense that has allowed only 20 points in the playoffs and held the Jets
scoreless for an entire half. The Colts
defense is underrated as they operate under Peyton Manning’s shadow. With more size and speed than unusual (pair
of starting tackles at more than 310 pounds) Indy tied for #2 in the entire NFL
in scoring defense through the initial 14 games before they ultimately stopped
trying. Here is a whopping
"22-4" SYSTEM (84% past five years with a lofty posted total of 49'
points or higher) which plays teams like Indianapolis with a poor pass defense
whose completion percentage against is 60%-or-worse UNDER the total when off a
game where they averaged 8+ yards per pass attempt. Continuing with Indianapolis they are 7-0 UNDER the past two
years after allowing at least 6 yards per play in the previous game. New
Orleans is 6-0 UNDER for the entire season after a
game where they allowed 400+ total yards.
Do I hear 7-0 UNDER anyone?!
SUPER BOWL SIDE (Saints OUTRIGHT upset)
SUPER
BOWL INTANGIBLE SIDE (Saints +5’ versus Colts in a 6:25 eastern kickoff on
CBS): As you can see in the above
analysis the main reason why New Orleans has finally reached their initial
Super Bowl has to do with the offseason hiring of defensive coordinator Gregg
Williams who alone has made this squad #1 in NFL forced turnovers and we all
know how critical turnovers are in big games.
By just mere statistics there is no way that Minnesota
actually lost the NFC Championship as they went up and down the field to the
tune of 475 total yards, but the 5 turnovers forced by the Saints opportunistic
defense cashed their ticket to Miami. The bottom line regarding this pick is that
neither of these sides are true “margin” teams which
makes TAKING the available points intriguing.
Indianapolis
had 7 different games this season decided by “four or less” points as they rode
the exceptional talent of Peyton Manning in the final quarter. New
Orleans registered 5 separate “come from behind”
victories where they dug themselves out of an early hole. The intangibles of this contest have to do in
part to the fact that this is the 50th-anniversary season of the old AFL which
became a legitimate league in Super Bowl 3 when Joe Namath came through with
his infamous guarantee and the Jets pulled off a massive upset in a contest
played at MIAMI which is the site of this year’s event. We have seen plenty of marquee quarterbacks
play CLOSE Super Bowls in Miami through the
years including Joe Montana’s fourth quarter miracle comeback against San Francisco that put a
wrap on the 1980’s. There is no question
that Peyton Manning has the edge over Drew Brees
especially in big-game experience, but that does not necessarily mean a spread
triumph. In the early stages of this
campaign New Orleans averaged about 150 rush yards per contest which is way
above the statistics put up by the almost non-existent Colts running game. Of course a sustained rushing attack leads to
longer drives and New Orleans
conceivably has a big edge in that area.
Both of these teams dealt with media criticism of resting players down
the stretch which is another indication where there is not that much disparity
between these clubs. One could make a
strong argument that Indianapolis should be a two-touchdown favorite in this
contest since they had a chance of running the table for the entire season, so
that opening price tag set by the oddsmakers (-3’)
was in my opinion extremely telling. For
those of you who may not be aware no team has ever won the Super Bowl after
losing 3 consecutive regular season contests which puts New Orleans behind the
eight-ball so to speak. But one of those
setbacks was against which snapped a 13-game winning streak was triggered by a
television analyst that created “bulletin board” material. NBC commentator Tony Dungy proclaimed that Dallas had absolutely no shot at upsetting the then
undefeated Saints in New Orleans. Following the stunning result one of the Dallas players commented
that Dungy’s comments the prior week had actually
inspired them. I bring up the subject of
the Colts former head coach because just this week Dungy has proclaimed in the
media that Indianapolis should essentially crush
New Orleans and
hopefully that challenge has reached the Saints locker room. This is a very large “revenge” battle for New Orleans who made it
all the way to the 2006 NFC Championship game.
The last time New Orleans
faced the Colts was the heavy hyped regular season 2007 NBC-TV primetime opener
where Drew Brees and company were crushed by a 41-10
count. While on the subject of Brees he almost ended up in Miami but the Dolphins ultimately passed
deciding that he would never fully recover from a shoulder injury. Not only does Brees
return to the city of Miami
for the biggest game of his life, he also directed an incredible comeback at
Dolphins Stadium earlier in the campaign.
My database research indicates that Brees in
his career is an excellent 19-5 ATS when facing a marquee opponent that has a
win percentage of .700 or higher. Meanwhile
in the past seventeen years Indianapolis
is an extremely poor 3-12 ATS/ROAD in the second-half of the season against
solid rushing teams that average at least 130 yards per game on the ground and
earlier in this analysis I indicated how important running the football
is. I will wrap up this analysis with an
UNDEFEATED two-year angle which simply states that New Orleans is 8-0 ATS against “non” conference opposition.
Do I hear 9-0 ATS anyone?!
NFL PRO BOWL “BEST BET
WIN” ON SUNDAY 1/31
Yet another NFL Best Bet Sunday winner in a 41-34 Pro Bowl
shootout
TONIGHT’S “3 UNIT” REDZONE
BEST BET NFL TOTAL (Pro Bowl OVER 57’ in a 7:20 eastern kickoff on ESPN): Of course the big story here is that for the
first time ever the NFL’s All-Star game is being moved one week ahead of the
Super Bowl in an effort to generate more television ratings along with more
fans in the stands. Dating all the way
back to 1980 the Pro Bowl has annually been held in Hawaii as a “vacation
award” for the participating players, but the bottom line is that this move to the
mainland has already paid off for the league as there will be a sellout crowd
of more than 70-thousand at Dolphins Stadium in Miami. With that anticipated sellout we are looking
at the heaviest attended Pro Bowl in FIFTY YEARS. As previously mentioned the league also is
attempting to transform their All-Star game into a bigger game by playing it
the week before Super Sunday. I for one
agree with recent comments by commissioner Roger Goodell in that this year’s Pro Bowl has already garnered
more ATTENTION from the public and media as it is being showcased on a weekend
where there is usually no football and interest in the NFL is at its
highest. For the mere sake of television
ratings the league would love to see a high scoring and competitive Pro Bowl
which is one of the reasons why I am so enthusiastic about the OVER even though
we have an extremely high posted total.
The bottom line is that with the Pro Bowl being played a full 2 weeks
earlier than normal the participating players are in BETTER SHAPE. Of course the placement of the All-Star game
the various elected players who will be participating in next week’s Super Bowl
will not be taking the field, but that has just opened up OPPORTUNITY for many
personnel who do not get many National-TV opportunities during the regular
season. Houston quarterback Matt Schaub
very quietly led the entire NFL with 4,770 passing yards and has been given the
opportunity to start for the AFC after the loss of Peyton Manning along with
injuries to Tom Brady and Phillip Rivers.
Not only is the Texans quarterback now a
starter, so is his favorite target Andre Johnson who actually GREW UP in the Miami area and played
collegiately for the Hurricanes. Johnson
along with Marvin Harrison are the only wide receivers
in league history to have consecutive 1,500+ yard receptions seasons. Also at one of the wide out spots for the AFC
is the outspoken Chad Ochocinco who loves to give
inspired performances both for the fans and more importantly for his own
personal attention. Ochocinco
spent the regular season stuck in a Cincinnati
offense that was “run oriented” but this evening gets to strut his stuff
against league mandated “one on one” coverage.
It is interesting to note that the AFC offense also had 3 running backs
(Chris Johnson, Ray Rice, Maurice Jones-Drew) who have
the ability to CATCH the football out of the backfield which increases
receiving options. As far as the NFC
offense is concerned they have 3 quarterbacks (Aaron Rodgers, Donovan McNabb, Tony Romo) who all have STRONG
throwing arms suited for DEEP passes.
Just like the AFC receivers, the National Conference wideouts
have the benefit of only dealing with “one on one” defensive coverage. Traditionally Pro Bowls are very high scoring
because in an effort to avoid injuries the defenses are not allowed to employ
the blitz and also lack the preparation time to install any elaborate
schemes. Last year’s Pro Bowl featured
only 51 combined points score but once again this
year’s event is being played two weeks earlier where the various offensive
personnel are in much better shape. The
tinkering with this year’s Pro Bowl to boost ratings and attendance basically
encourages a higher scoring contest than normal
12-6 ALL COLLEGE BASKETBALL JANUARY BEST BETS
*****Ranked #1 NFL for the
entire regular season plus #1 College Bowls up against the nation’s elite
handicappers as professionally monitored at (www.sports-watch.com) *****
19-15 PREMIUM “BASKETBALL” BEST BET SIDES+TOTALS PAST THIRTY
DAYS
--1/8 BEST BET Loyola-Maryland (+9) COVERS in
close 65-60 ESPNU televised tussle at Fairfield
--1/9 BEST BET Georgia Tech (+7’) OUTRIGHT 71-67
upset of Duke in an ESPN televised national clash
--1/10 BEST BET Oregon State (+8’) OUTRIGHT 64-57
road upset at rival Oregon in primetime FOX-NET televised Pac-10 special
--1/11 BEST BET Cavaliers/Warriors OVER (212) WINS
with ease in 117-114 NBA shootout (19 point Best Bet cover)
--1/12 BEST BET Miami-Ohio (-1’) COVERS in a 55-53
overtime thriller where Miami’s
coach tied an all-time league record for victories
--1/13 BEST BET “4 Unit” MARQUEE monster Furman
(+6’) COVERS in a close 86-81 home contest versus Davidson
--1/13 BEST BET Suns (-4) lose outright 122-114 at
Pacers
--1/13 BEST BET Nebraska
(+12) PUSHES in 84-72 final ESPN2 televised home verdict against Kansas
--1/14 BEST BET Arkansas
(+14) COVERS with ease in very close 82-80 ESPNU thriller at Mississippi State
--1/16 BEST
BET Idaho
State (+4) COVERS in a 95-93 home
thriller versus “border war” rival Weber
State
--1/17 no hoops Best Bet
--1/18 BEST BET Texas/Kansas State OVER (158’)
fails in a 71-62 final verdict
--1/19 BEST BET George Mason/Hofstra
UNDER (124’) fails miserably in a 90-72 shootout
--1/20 BEST BET Sixers
(+1) fail to cover in a 98-90 home setback versus Blazers
--1/20 BEST BET Texas
El-Paso (+8’) OUTRIGHT at Memphis
snapping the Tigers record 64-game conference winning streak (opening college
“5 UNIT” bombshell)
--1/21 BEST BET Tennessee-Martin (+2) failed to
cover in a 77-63 road loss against Southeast
Missouri State
who for the FIRST TIME ALL SEASON was cast as a favorite
--1/22 BEST
BET Idaho
State (-6’) failed to
cover by a HOOK in a 80-74 straight-up home triumph
--1/23 BEST BET Arkansas
(+16’) fails to cover in ugly 101-70 setback at Kentucky
--1/23 BEST BET South Florida (+6) OUTRIGHT road
upset at Providence
--1/24 No Best Bet
--1/25 BEST BET Hornets/Blazers UNDER (189) fail
to hit in a 98-97 contest
--1/26 BEST BET South
Carolina (+7’) OUTRIGHT upset 68-62 versus #1 ranked Kentucky
--1/27 BEST BET Texas A+M (+5’) barely fails to cover in a
SEVEN point 76-69 ESPN2 televised setback
--1/27 BEST BET Heat (+3’) fails to cover a
111-103 road setback at Raptors in the NBA
--1/28 BEST BET Seton Hall/South Florida OVER (147) WINS in a 76-74 overtime
verdict on ESPN2
--1/28 BEST BET Arkansas
(+3’) OUTRIGHT 67-62 home triumph versus Mississippi State
--1/29 BEST BET Clippers (pick) lose 111-97 at
Timberwolves in the NBA
--1/30 BEST BET Hawks (+5’) fail to cover in ugly
104-86 loss at Magic
--1/30 BEST BET Auburn
(+1) COVERS in a 58-57 outright win against rival Alabama
--1/30 BEST BET Washington State/Washington OVER
(156) PUSHES in a 92-64 final verdict
--1/31 Football Best Bet WIN but no basketball Best Bet
--2/1 BEST BET Mavericks/Jazz UNDER (199) WINS in
a 104-92 final verdict
--2/2 BEST
BET Tennessee
State POSTPONED by leaky
roof
--2/3 BEST BET Alabama-Birmingham (+7’) fails to cover in
“ten point” road setback
--2/3 BEST BET BIdaho/Utah
State OVER (131) WINS in a 80-62 shootout
--2/4 BEST BET Tennessee
Tech (+11) loses by an “eighteen” point margin in road setback
--2/5 BEST BET Brown (+5’) fails to cover a game they led
outright on road for more than an entire half
--2/6 BEST BET Tennessee-Martin (-1) failed to cover
against opponent who just kicked 4 players off team
--2/6 BEST BET William+Mary
(-2) COVERS in a 59-56 road triumph
--2/7 BEST BET Canisius (+6) COVERS
with ease in near outright road upset (73-72 final score)
42-36 premium college
basketball past thirty days
OPENING COLLEGE BASKETBALL 5-UNIT EVENT WINS
As predicted Memphis’ record 64-game
conference win streak was snapped ON 1/20
*****Ranked #1 NFL for the
entire regular season plus #1 College Bowls up against the nation’s elite
handicappers as professionally monitored at (www.sports-watch.com)*****
BASKETBALL BEST BETS POSITIVE “17-15” PAST TWENTY-NINE DAYS
OPENING COLLEGE HOOP “5 UNIT” EVENT WINS ON 1/20
As you will see in the
analysis below Memphis
had just snapped the consecutive conference regular season win record that was
held for 56-YEARS. On Wednesday as predicted
that record 64-game winning tear that began in 2006 was snapped by a Texas
El-Paso contingent that had FIVE players with Memphis roots plus almost an
entire coaching staff who at one time was employed by the Tigers. Texas El-Paso (+8’) won OUTRIGHT and in a
personal MONEY LINE (+320) wager
TONIGHT’S SPECIAL “5
UNIT” REDZONE COLLEGE BEST BET (Texas-El Paso +8’ at Memphis in a 8:05 eastern
tipoff broadcast on CBS College Sports):
This past Saturday evening Memphis broke Kentucky’s 56-YEAR old record
for consecutive regular season victories (52) in conference play which puts
them in line to finally lose a game which could very well be this evening
against an opponent who has incredible “Memphis ties” which will be detailed in
this analysis segment. Including the
Conference USA postseason tournament, Memphis
has won an incredible 64 in a row against league opposition with the last
setback way back in March of 2006. Of
course the Memphis head coach during this streak
was the same John Calipari who is now employed at Kentucky and is in the
running for “coach of the year”. While Calipari proved to be an excellent recruiter it remains to
be seen if his replacement Josh Pastner can carry on
the winning tradition. The odds seem to
be against his long term success especially since Calipari
exited the Memphis
program in a cloud of controversy making one think the Tigers will soon face
the wrath of an NCAA investigation. For
the moment Memphis
continues to make a mockery of what is a very weak conference but without Calipari at the controls the Tigers suddenly have become a
financial drain for bettors. Something
has to give this evening because both Memphis
(0-8 ATS) and Texas-El Paso (0-6 ATS) are currently mired in long slides
against the spread. With Memphis continuing to win
games straight-up the oddsmakers successfully have
been “inflating” their price tags, but with them laying only “single digits”
this evening my personal attention has been grabbed. Tony Barbee is in year #4 as the Texas
El-Paso head coach and he just happened to be on the Memphis bench the last time the Tigers
suffered a conference loss. Barbee was a Memphis
assistant from 2001 through 2006 so he has special MOTIVATION to finally put an
end to the Tigers 64-game Conference USA winning streak. But the connections do not end there as UTEP’s assistant coach Tony Madlock
actually was a four-year letterman for the Tigers from 1988-through-1992. Another current El Paso
assistant Milt Wagner was actually director of basketball operations at Memphis from
2001-through-2006. UTEP’s
current basketball director of operations Mike Babul was assistant director at Memphis in 2003-2004. Finally Nathaniel Root (UTEP assistant
director of basketball operations) was a PLAYER for Memphis from 200-1to-2003. One would think that the fact that most of
the current Miners coaching staff has ties to Memphis would be enough,
but the story does not end there.
Amazingly FIVE different players on the current Texas-El Paso roster
actually call Memphis home and a pair of them (Jeremy Williams, Myron Strong)
will be making their first trip back home in Miner uniforms. Strong says he grew up watching the Tigers
and dreamed of playing for them.
Williams who was a high school teammate of Strong says quote “this is an
experience you live for”. Williams also
says that nothing would be better than to come back home and snap the Memphis record setting win
streak. One of the reasons why the
posted line on tonight’s contest is only “single digits” has to do with the fact
that these two teams statistically are very similar according to the Conference
USA rankings. UTEP is ranked #4 in
average points per game while Memphis
checks in at #5. UTEP is ranked #3 in
conference shooting percentage from the field while Memphis is close behind at #5 in that
category. The Miners have played well
against Memphis
the past two seasons. Last year the
Tigers tamed the Miners 70-63 in El-Paso.
Two years ago in Memphis and with the Tigers having a #1 national
ranking, UTEP led 60-58 with 3:45 to play and actually trailed by ONE point
with 1:18 remaining in what turned out to be a nailbiter. Now you know why I am personally placing a
pair of wagers on Texas-El Paso this evening including the “money line” (+320)
which would give me an enormous return on a rather small investment. Turning to the database here is a 75-PERCENT
SYSTEM (35-12 past dozen years) which plays ON road teams like Texas El-Paso
off a “no cover” where they won straight-up on the scoreboard as a favorite,
against an opponent off consecutive “non” covers where the team also won
outright cast as a favorite. That system
supports Texas-El Paso who is also a whopping 9-1 ATS/ROAD the past three years
after a game where the defense allowed less than 26 “first half” points. To recap we have Texas-El Paso who has FIVE
players with Memphis
ties along with almost the entire coaching staff. All of those Miner personnel will be seeking
to finally put an end to what is now college basketball’s longest regular
season conference winning streak (52) in FIFTY-SIX YEARS
NFL DIVISIONAL PLAYOFF AFC PRIMETIME SWEEP
A special “5 UNIT” Best
Bet bombshell on the Colts (-3’) to cover the first-half cashed a WINNING
ticket as well as a “3 Unit” major move on Indianapolis in a 20-3 rout of the Ravens
(UNDER the total also comes through)
TONIGHT’S NFL “3 UNIT”
TRIPLE PLAY MAJOR SIDE (Colts -6 at home versus Ravens in an 8:15 eastern
kickoff on CBS): Of course there has
been major controversy in Indianapolis in regards to the squad coughing up a
chance to run the table in the regular season where they rested regulars down
the stretch. But the bottom line is that
due to that strategy Indianapolis
is much HEALTHIER than tonight’s opponent.
Last weekend we all saw Baltimore pull
off a stunning upset of a New England
contingent that had won 23 consecutive home playoff outings. But due to massive injuries that Ravens
victory was not nearly as impressive as one would have thought. While the Colts were getting “brow beaten” in
the national media for letting up on the gas pedal, the Patriots lost their #1
receiving option and NFL leader Wes Welker on the final Sunday of the regular
campaign. With his absence all that
Baltimore had to do was double-team New England’s other star receiving option
Randy Moss who just happened to MISS a practice session late in the week due to
injury. New England
was extremely defensive when CBS studio analyst Charley Casserly
reported a couple of weeks ago that superstar Tom Brady was playing with 3
cracked ribs. No matter what the
Patriots said it was obvious that Brady was not near 100% last weekend. On the other side of the football New England was operating with a patchwork defense that
was torn apart by veterans simply getting too old to perform at a high
level. Thus once again it is not worth
reading too far into what appeared to be a superlative effort by Baltimore last
weekend. Even though it did not come
into play during the Wildcard playoff Ravens quarterback Joe Flacco completed only FOUR passes in part due to hip injury
that clearly affected his throwing motion.
One of Baltimore’s
few solid receiving options (veteran tight end Todd Heap) ended up getting his
back twisted and comes into this evening NOT at 100% efficiency. Once again even though it did not become a
major issue last week since they grabbed an early 24-point lead courtesy of
turnovers the fact of the matter is that Baltimore’s
defensive secondary is BANGED UP which should have Peyton Manning
salivating. Even though Indianapolis struggled for
the most part on third-down conversions, there is a reason why Manning is
attempting to become the 15th player to be named MVP and win the Super Bowl in
the same season (most recent way back in 1999).
Even though the Ravens stop-unit led by the emotional Ray Lewis has the
ability to harass opposing quarterbacks, Peyton Manning receives excellent
protection and no one is better at making pre-snap adjustments. Give Manning time and he will shred a Ravens
secondary relying on RESERVE cornerbacks Chris Carr and Frank Walker who have
been forced into the starting lineup.
Even thought it seems like an eternity, Peyton Manning in the regular
season finale completed 14-of-18 passes in the SNOW at Buffalo before getting pulled in the second
stanza. I am aware that Indianapolis is operating
with a rookie head coach but the fact of the matter is that Jim Caldwell has
been on the Colts staff since 2002. The
amazing coaching continuity that the Colts have enjoyed is major even though
often unheralded in the national press.
I am also aware that Indianapolis
is 0-3 in the playoffs following a Bye week but all that is going to do is
inspire this group who comes in with a collective chip on their shoulder. According to my database research the fact
that Indianapolis
pulled their defensive starters a couple of weeks ago in the snow makes them an
incredible percentage wager this evening.
In the past three years Indianapolis
is 7-0 ATS after allowing at least 6 yards per play in the prior game. Do I hear 8-0 ATS
anyone?!
NFL DIVISIONAL PLAYOFF NFC (Saints in a 45-14 rout)
NFL PLAYOFF PERCENTAGE
SIDE (Saints -7 at home versus Cardinals in a 4:35 eastern kickoff on
FOX): The key to this selection
surrounds the critical area of TURNOVERS which can swing a football game in an
instant. Of the twelve teams that made
the playoffs Arizona
has committed the most miscues as their turnover margin (-7) is horrible. On the other hand the opportunistic Saints
ranked #2 in the entire NFL with 39 takeaways and a PLUS-ELEVEN turnover
margin. A new defensive coordinator
along with new personnel such as safety Darren Sharper (9 interceptions, 3
picks returned for score) literally transformed the team. The New
Orleans defense has gone from being the primary
weakness to one that has made “game changing” plays. Regular clients know that I personally loaded
up on Arizona
one week ago as they banded together even though star wide receiver Anquan Boldin (ankle, knee) was
unable to play. It will be much tougher
for Arizona
to cover for Boldin once again this week since they
are now playing on the road. As
mentioned in last Sunday’s analysis many of the Arizona
players were irked that Green Bay
treated both the regular season finale and a preseason exhibition contest
seriously. The shoe is on the other foot
this week as New Orleans
is now the squad that has to prove themselves as that amazing 13-0 start to the
campaign suddenly became ancient history.
One of the main reasons why New Orleans struggled down the stretch was
due to major injuries to the offense which cost tight end Jeremy Shockey (toe) 3 games.
Both Shockey and wide receiver Lance Moore are
expected to be back on the field late this afternoon as well as impact rusher
Pierre Thomas who cracked three ribs in a late season setback. While on the subject of New Orleans running backs veteran Deuce
McAllister will be in uniform to add EMOTION on the sidelines as a ceremonial
team captain. This was a class move by New Orleans who originally
dropped the veteran running back following the 2008 campaign. Of course the Saints have much to prove after
going 2-3 down the stretch while struggling in both victories. I love the CONFIDENCE shown by Saints head
coach Sean Payton who actually gave his players most of last week off. One will never forget that infamous Monday
Night affair which marked the Saints return to the Superdome following
Hurricane Katrina which destroyed the city and there will be plenty of raw
emotion inside that building late this afternoon. One could make a strong argument that the
Saints would not have survived in New
Orleans if not gaining the services of quarterback
Drew Brees who has done an amazing job with local
HUMANITARIAN causes off the field of play which has created an extremely strong
bond between Brees and the community. Brees set an NFL
record for completion percentage (.706) and today will face an Arizona defense that was
shredded a week ago (45 points allowed) coughing up a sizeable early lead. Going into last weekend Arizona had no less than FIVE INJURED
players and they have had a “short week” to prepare. Last weekend there was no way Arizona should have been
extended into overtime as veteran kicker Neil Rackers
missed a very short field goal attempt.
One has to wonder about the mental capacity of Rackers
this week which gives the Saints an edge in special teams. Here is a 74-PERCENT SYSTEM (34-12 past
decade) that goes AGAINST road underdogs of 3’-to-10 points like Arizona off an
upset win as an underdog, and facing an opponent off a road loss. But the big news from the database is the
fact that New Orleans
is 6-0 ATS the past two years when shaking off an outright road setback. Do I hear 7-0 ATS anyone?!
COLLEGE BASKETBALL REVENGE GAME OF THE YEAR “COVERS” ON 1/16
(95-93 thriller)
TONIGHT’S “4 UNIT”
REDZONE COLLEGE BASKETBALL BEST BET (Idaho
State +4 at home versus Weber State
in a 9:05 eastern tipoff): To give you
an idea how intense this rivalry is they call this Big Sky Conference clash the
“border war”. One year ago in front of
their own home fans Idaho
State lost on what was
basically a SCORING MISTAKE which is one of the reasons why they “circled”
tonight’s rematch on their calendar as soon as the schedule came out. In that bitter home setback a year ago a
player from Weber
State was allowed to stay
in the game even though technically he fouled out. That player from Weber State
actually nailed a pair of critical THREE POINT shots in crunch time when he
should have been sitting on the bench. I
am fully aware that Idaho
State checks in tonight
with an awful 4-13 overall record but one can argue that they had one of the
nation’s toughest pre-conference schedules.
All Idaho State had to do in the “non” league portion of their schedule
is play on the ROAD against quality opposition (Iowa State, Bradley, Brigham
Young, Utah State, Notre Dame, Utah, Southern California, Oregon) who have a
long term track record of success in conference’s way above the Big Sky in
overall talent. What makes Idaho State
a lethal home underdog late tonight surrounds the fact that they have hit at
least 70-PERCENT from the free-throw line in 12 of the past 17 outings. Despite an overall record that appears to be
a disaster Idaho State has actually WON THE REBOUNDING
BATTLE by an average of nearly one board per contest. This team has also hit near 36% of their long
range THREE POINT opportunities (120 of 335) which is not all that bad. Idaho State if coming off a hotly contested
road game at one of the Big Sky’s league leaders and the Bengals actually
trailed by just two points with less than 2-minutes left on the clock. As
mentioned at the top of this analysis Idaho
State was robbed at home in this
rivalry a year ago which saw Weber
State win both
clashes. That actually snapped a run of
10 consecutive games in this bitter series where the clubs alternated
wins-and-losses. Due to the unusual
circumstances which Idaho
State lost at home to
their main rivals last campaign, this is my college
basketball “revenge game of the year”
NFL WILDCARD PLAYOFF GAME OF THE YEAR COVERS
The opening week of the
NFL playoffs wrapped up with the Wildcard System Game of the Year as
Arizona (+2’) won OUTRIGHT in a memorable 51-45 overtime shootout which saw the
Cardinals both blow a sizeable early lead along with a short field goal attempt
at the end of regulation. But the
incredible 22-3 System successfully COVERED the spread yet again
TODAY’S “4 UNIT” REDZONE
NFL BEST BET (Cardinals +2’ at home versus Packers in a 4:40 eastern kickoff on
FOX): Green Bay’s
first team has outscored Arizona
71-10 in five quarters during both the preseason and regular campaign. In addition both of yesterday’s “rematches”
from week-seventeen resulted in broom job.
But the bottom line is that it is costly to overlook an Arizona squad that
defied the odds a year ago and went all the way to the Super Bowl. It may seem like an eternity but the national
assumption a year ago at this time was that Arizona
was not capable of winning on the road, so they went to Carolina and shocked the Panthers as a
prohibitive playoff underdog. We have
had a radical line swing in this NFC Wildcard contest which actually saw Arizona open at most
offshore locations as a 2’ point favorite.
Due to word this morning that Cardinals star wide receiver Anquan Boldin (ankle/knee) most
likely would not be in the starting lineup, the home team suddenly became a
sizeable underdog. But according to star
quarterback Kurt Warner his Cardinals planned for today’s game WITHOUT Boldin being involved so I am not going to overreact to
that injury. After doing some serious
digging I can confirm that 4 of the 5 Arizona players who were on the injured
list WILL participate late this afternoon including star defensive back
Dominique Rodgers-Cromartie who was carted off the
field a week ago with what appeared to be a season-ending knee problem. In my mind the bigger news is that Green Bay’s defensive
secondary is NOT 100% healthy including star Charles Woodson who is tied for
the NFL lead with 9 interceptions.
Woodson left last Sunday’s contest late in the second quarter with a
sore shoulder and he is the key cog of the Packers stop-unit. With Boldin most
likely out of the lineup, Woodson will be assigned to Arizona’s Larry Fitzgerald so his overall
health is critical. I will admit that Green Bay has responded well to their new defensive
coordinator Dom Capers who has always been successful in that area dating back
to his days directing the initial campaigns of the Carolina franchise. One thing Capers loves to do out of the “3-4”
alignment is employ the BLITZ but Kurt Warner is one of the league’s best
signal callers reading those blitz packages.
According to Warner he is more confident of making plays against the
Packers secondary as opposed to that of San
Francisco who defeated him in a Monday Night regular
season telecast. Warner is participating
in his 12th playoff game and there is a shot at age 38 that this will be his
final postseason push. Of course this
pick is dangerous since Green Bay
is on a current 7-1 tear where the passing ratio of quarterback Aaron Rodgers
has been nothing short of spectacular.
But in the beginning of this season Rodgers was constantly harassed
operating behind a shaky offensive line that repeatedly gave him very little
time to throw the football and the fact of the matter is that Arizona’s stop-unit has a grand total of 45
SACKS. On the other side of the football
Arizona led
the entire NFL in “red zone” offense with 38 touchdowns in 53 opportunities
(70-PERCENT efficiency inside the opposition 20-yard line). Prior to last Sunday’s home game which was
played late in the afternoon, the Cardinals were informed that the possibility
of gaining an opening-round bye was remote which caused head coach Ken Whisenhunt to play very CONSERVATIVE. Thus I am not going to overreact to last
week’s rout by the Packers who played to win in the desert southwest. With Arizona
operating a “vanilla” attack giving away no secrets last Sunday, they are
actually in an advantageous spot late this afternoon. This has been a staggering campaign for the
Cardinals franchise who did NOT lose games on
consecutive weeks since way back in 1975.
In addition Arizona
is only the second Super Bowl loser in the past nine years to actually make the
playoffs in the following season.
Turning to the database here is an UNDEFEATED database angle which sees Arizona 6-0 ATS/HOME the
past three years after scoring 3-or-less opening half points in the prior
game. Here is a whopping 22-3 SYSTEM
(88% last decade involving a pair of quality team that have won 60-to-75% of
their games) which plays ON teams like Arizona revenging a loss where they
scored less than two touchdowns, with a near pick-em
line of +3/-3 which is the case today
5 UNIT BCS CHAMPIONSHIP BOMBSHELL WINS
2010 PREMIUM COLLEGE FOOTBALL CONCLUDES 12-5
ALABAMA covers the BCS
Championship
12-5 PREMIUM COLLEGE FOOTBALL IN 2010
--1/1 “5 UNIT” Bowl event Northwestern/Auburn OVER (55) WINS
in a 38-35 shootout
--1/1 ROSE BOWL BEST BET Ohio State (+4) OUTRIGHT 26-17 upset of Oregon
--1/1 BOWL
PARLAY Florida
State (+3) OUTRIGHT 33-21
upset in Bobby Bowden’s finale
--1/1 BOWL
PARLAY Penn
State (-1) COVERS in a
19-17 triumph over LSU
--1/2 BEST BET East Carolina
(+7’) COVERS in an overtime 20-17 thriller
--1/2 Cotton Bowl Total Mississippi/Oklahoma State UNDER
(51) WINS in very low scoring 21-7 contest (23 point cover)
--1/2 South Florida (-7) COVERS in a 27-3 rout of Northern Illinois
--1/2 Liberty Bowl Total
Arkansas/East Carolina
UNDER (63’) WINS with ease in 20-17 overtime game (26’ point cover)
--1/4 TCU (-7) loses outright 17-10 in the Fiesta Bowl
--1/4 Fiesta Bowl Boise State/Texas Christian UNDER (54)
WINS with ease in very low scoring 17-10 contest (27 point cover)
--1/5 Georgia Tech (-5’) loses outright versus Iowa in the Orange Bowl
(first time in 2 years Yellow Jackets fail to cover against quality defensive
opponent)
--1/5 Proposition first score field goal or safety (+180)
fails
--1/6 Troy State/Central Michigan
UNDER (63) fails in 44-41 Double-OT shootout (1:17 away from covering in regulation)
--1/7 Special “5 UNIT” BCS Championship Best Bet
Texas/Alabama OVER (23) in the first half WINS with 30 combined points scored
in the opening half
--1/7 BCS Championship Alabama
(-4) COVERS in 37-21 triumph versus Texas
--1/7 BCS Championship Texas/Alabama UNDER (17’) in
second-half fails to cover
--1/7 BCS Championship Proposition special teams or defensive
touchdown (+135) WINS
Ranked #1 NFL and #2
college football for the entire regular season up
against the nation’s elite handicappers as professionally monitored at (www.sports-watch.com)
30-19 NFL PREMIUM WAGERS SINCE MID-DECEMBER
58-PERCENT ALL PREMIUM FOOTBALL
(1602115) FINAL NINETY-SEVEN DAYS
NEW YEARS SWEEP
Including special “5 UNIT”
bombshell Northwestern/Auburn OVER (55) in a 38-35 shootout
Plus a ROSE BOWL BEST BET as Ohio State
(+4) wins OUTRIGHT
Football Best Bet
sides-and-totals incredible “17-6” in month of December
Ranked #1 NFL and #2
college football for the entire regular season up
against the nation’s elite handicappers as professionally monitored at (www.sports-watch.com)
3-1 BOWL POSTSEASON “5
UNIT” BEST BET BOMBSHELLS
Including the BCS
Championship OVER (23) WINNING on 1/7 as combined 30 points were tallied in the
opening half
ALABAMA COVERS THE BCS CHAMPIONSHIP
COLLEGE FOOTBALL
NATIONAL CHAMPIONSHIP (Alabama -4 versus Texas in the BCS
Championship kicking off at 8:35 eastern on ABC-TV): They say you cannot handicap turnovers which
are critical in postseason football contests such as this. In 492 career carries Alabama’s Heisman
Trophy winning rusher Mark Ingram has turned the football over just ONCE. In 314 career pass
attempts Alabama
quarterback Greg McElroy has thrown only FOUR interceptions which means that
the well coached Crimson Tide do NOT commit critical mistakes. After five consecutive years where the BCS
Championship produced upsets, the FAVORITE has successfully covered the spread
in consecutive seasons and I expect that pattern to continue. So far the BCS-sanctioned Bowls have seen
underdogs pull off outright upsets except for one squad (Florida) that just happens to operate out of
the highly-regarded Southeastern Conference.
I will be the first to admit that the SEC as a whole is not as solid as
in recent seasons and their overall Bowl record this campaign (5-4) is
certainly reflective of that. But the
fact of the matter is that Alabama and Florida have proven to
be a step ahead of the entire college football field since their respective
head coaches are the best RECRUITERS in the game. There is certainly plenty of motivation for
the Crimson Tide as they try to wipe out memories of last year’s horrible Sugar
Bowl performance where they were dominated by an opponent out of a “non” BCS aligned conference.
In addition tonight is a rare shot for Alabama to finally defeat Texas
on the field as dating all the way back to 1902 they have gone “0-7-1” against
the Longhorns (last encounter back in 1982).
The key to this selection has to do with “the pits” where games are
ultimately won or lost on both the offensive and defensive lines. Since they had to replace 3 offensive line
starters it was originally thought that Alabama
would struggle on offense but that line was good enough to produce a Heisman
Trophy campaign by running back Mark Ingram.
For the most part Ingram sealed his Heisman by rushing for 113 yards and
three touchdowns in that shocking SEC Championship game upset of Florida where he had a
game changing 69 yard catch-and-run. The
Crimson Tide put up 32 points against the nation’s top-ranked Division I-A
defense which was allowing less than 10 points per contest. Of course Alabama’s
defense as expected was also spectacular during the regular season permitting
just 11 points per contest and that stop-unit certainly neutralized Florida star quarterback
Tim Tebow.
Tonight on ABC the announcing crew is going to be talking a lot about
354-POUND Alabama
senior defensive tackle Terrence Cody who has one more chance to perform on the
national stage. What I like most about Alabama’s
defense is that they “disguise” coverages similar to
what the NFL New England Patriots have done for years at the professional
level. I can confirm that a substantial
amount of offshore money has been plunked down on Texas since they have marquee quarterback
Colt McCoy who has received non-stop national press coverage. But in the Big 12 Championship game against a
top-notch defense McCoy was sacked NINE different times. Even though he does not receive much national
coverage Alabama’s starting quarterback just
happens to be UNDEFEATED as a starter dating back to his high school days
inside the state of Texas. Greg McElroy operated on the high school
level for three years behind future Missouri
star signal caller Chase Daniel and then served as a caddy for two years behind
John Parker Wilson at Alabama. To make a long story short McElroy used his
time on the sideline to be more strategic and has made himself a cerebral
player. After some ugly moments in the
traditional Iron Bowl rivalry against Auburn, McElroy literally saved the
Tide’s season leading a 15-play/79 yard drive that featured 3 different “third
down conversions” and was capped by a 4-yard touchdown pass with a mere
84-seconds remaining on the clock. Flush
with CONFIDENCE McElroy was on fire early against Florida opening the game with an 18-yard
completion and deftly mixed pass and run on the drive which led to immediate
points on the scoreboard. Of course
McElroy is not as popular a name as McCoy which has helped create some “value”
in tonight’s line even though the Tide are favored. I will admit that in the last 7 BCS National
Championship clashes, the team with a Heisman Trophy winner has ended up losing
6 different times. Even though Alabama’s Mark Ingram
was this year’s winner, he is NOT a quarterback which is rare for the Heisman
award which almost exclusively is given to signal callers annually. In the Sun Bowl contest featuring Heisman
hopeful Toby Gerhart, the Stanford running back
gained more than 100 yards on the ground so I for one am not worried about
Ingram this evening. I am aware that
Texas defended the run better than anyone in the country permitting just 62
yards per contest, but consider that most Big 12 Conference offenses operate
out of the pass-oriented “spread” attack so that aforementioned figure is a bit
skewed. The fact of the matter is that Texas and the end of
last season lost a pair of defensive linemen and a tackle to the NFL
draft. That spells big trouble this
evening as the Longhorns attempt to defend an Alabama run-oriented attack which tends to
wear down the opposition by the time the fourth quarter arrives. The last time Alabama was in the “preseason” Top-10 was
back in the year 2000 and now a decade later are in
the National Championship. At long last
a proud Alabama
program finally broke through with a Heisman Trophy winner and they are way
overdue to walk away with a National Championship trophy. As mentioned earlier Nick Saban
is one of the game’s best RECRUITERS and it comes as no shock that in a very
short period of time he has lifted Alabama
to elite status
It was a New Years Day SWEEP highlighted by a “5 UNIT” Best
Bet event (38-35 shootout in the Outback Bowl)
TODAY’S SPECIAL “5 UNIT”
REDZONE BEST BET TOTAL (Northwestern versus Auburn OVER 54’ in an 11 AM eastern
kickoff on ESPN): It was a little more
than one year ago when Auburn was shutout by bitter rival Alabama which ended
up sealing the fate of head coach Tom Tuberville who
was fired. The Tigers entered this
campaign with a brand new coaching staff which included offensive coordinator
Gus Malzahn.
To make a long story short Malzahn was the architect of Tulsa’s
attack that led all of college football in total offense both in 2007
and 2008. Malzahn’s
elaborate schemes made an instant impact in the “non”
conference portion of Auburn’s
schedule when the Tigers went OVER the total in the initial 4 contests. Most of you reading this analysis know that
the Southeastern Conference is known for its physical defense which is one of
the main reasons why Auburn
played above the spot just twice during league play. The bottom line is that the Tigers this
morning are seeking to play OVER in every “non league” outing this entire
season which includes a massive 63 point late season effort against Furman in a
contest that was not on the big board.
Senior quarterback Chris Todd was ranked 4th in the SEC Conference with
21 touchdown passes while senior Ben Tate also had a #4 league ranking with
more than 1,200 rush yards on the ground.
Auburn
for the entire regular season averaged an eye opening 33 points and 432 yards
per outing. But the once “vanilla”
offense of Auburn is not the only main factor in this special “5 Unit”
selection as Northwestern just happens to operate with a high-tempo “spread”
offense led by quarterback Mike Kafka who passed for 2,900 yards in the
air. Due to an injury Kafka stepped in a
year ago and ran for a Big Ten quarterback record 217 yards in a single
contest. In 2009 Northwestern’s
signal caller not only passed for 12 touchdowns, but also ran for 7
scores. What really impressed me about
the Wildcats quarterback who has excellent ground skills along with efficient
passing numbers is that Kafka had a conference-low 4 interceptions even though
he led the league in attempts during the Big Ten portion of the schedule. Getting back to Auburn quarterback Chris Todd he destroyed “non” conference opposition ripping 3 different team for a
combined THIRTEEN touchdown tosses. Todd
had better have a big effort today because the Tigers defense actually allowed
during the regular season an SEC league high 27 points per contest. Going into the record books I see that Northwestern’s only previous Bowl meeting with an SEC
opponent resulted in a high scoring 48-28 shootout a dozen years ago. The Wildcats are also involved in a
66-PERCENT SYSTEM (56-29 past five years in a battle between a pair of “winning”
squads). This system takes teams like
Northwestern after going below the posted spot by 49+ combined points the past
seven outings OVER the total. To put
this total in perspective Auburn has played OVER in every “non” league game
this season and has one of college football’s most successful offensive
coordinators, while Northwestern operates out of a high-tempo “spread”
formation sure to keep the scoreboard operator plenty busy
ROSE BOWL BEST BET WIN (Ohio State OUTRIGHT upset New Years Day)
TODAY'S "3
UNIT" REDZONE BEST BET COLLEGE FOOTBALL SIDE (Ohio
State +4 versus Oregon in the Rose Bowl Game kicking off at
5:05 eastern on ABC-TV): Due to what was
a disastrous Bowl campaign a year ago, the Big 10 Conference has suffered a
sagging national reputation. To make a
long story short the Big 10 entrant in the past three Rose Bowl contests have
had no chance due to the fact that USC was involved. For those that have been on the Trojans over
the past decade in high profile games, you know that head coach Pete Carroll
does "not let up on the pedal" so to speak. Even though the Pac 10 Conference is having a
rough postseason, it comes as no personal shock that USC already successfully
covered the spread in their 2009 Bowl outing.
But the mere fact that USC is essentially not playing a "home"
game inside the Roase Bowl on New Years Day actually
gives the Big Ten entrant a fighting chance.
This is Ohio
State's first Rose Bowl
since a WIN against a Pac 10 opponent back in 1996. The Buckeyes have lost 3 consecutive BCS Bowl
outings but their defense (just 12 ppg allowed) has
the ability to slow an Oregon
attack that is putting up 37 per pop.
Much to my personal chagrin we had an "offense versus defense"
matchup in the Bowls yesterday where the superior defensive squad (Air Force)
won outright against an offensive favorite (Houston) and this particular contest has a
similar feel. I will admit that Oregon has won 10 of
their most recent 11 outings where they essentially "outscored" the
opposition. But it was way back in
week-one when Oregon's high-octane attack was
handcuffed on the road by Boise
State who also is
appearing in a BCS-sanctioned Bowl.
Another negative regarding Oregon
is the fact that they no longer have veteran Mike Belotti
as their head coach. We saw last night
in the Peach Bowl Tennessee
get dominated by a Virginia Tech squad led by a veteran head coach. There is no question that Lane Kiffin has added energy to the Tennessee program, but last night was a
learning experience for him as a "first year" head coach preparing a
squad for a postseason Bowl. Oregon's Chip Kelly also
is a "first year" head coach who has never led a contingent into a
postseason Bowl contest. The Ducks have
not been to a Rose Bowl game since way back in 1995 when they promptly LOST on
the scoreboard. To make a long story
short Ohio State desperately wants to win this game
after suffering 3 consecutive BCS Bowl setbacks including a pair in the high
profile national championship game. As
per normal for this school the Buckeyes have an outstanding defense that is
allowing just 12 points and 261 total yards per game. That Ohio State
stop-unit also did NOT allow a 100-yard rusher against them all season. My database research indicates that the
Buckeyes are an eye popping 7-0 ATS this year after a game where they forced 3+
turnovers. Ohio State
also has COVERED SIX IN A ROW on the road against "winning"
opponents!
MONDAY PREMIUM FOOTBALL 9-3 FINAL FIVE WEEKS (including 5-0 sides)
23-10 all premium service NFL Primetime TV sides-and-totals
final twelve weeks
MONDAY NFL FOOTBALL REGULAR SEASON FINALE SWEEP (12/28)
An incredible “24-13”
overall Monday Football performance wrapped up with the heavy underdog Bears
(+8’) stunning the Vikings OUTRIGHT in a 36-30 overtime thriller. Monday’s Proposition wager on Bears kicker
Robbie Gould OVER (5’) point cashed a winning ticket in the OPENING QUARTER
TONIGHT’S “3 UNIT”
REDZONE NFL BEST BET (Bears +8’ at home versus Vikings in a 6:35 eastern kickoff): Of course the big story involving Minnesota in the past
week has surrounded the supposed feud between Bret Favre and his head
coach. Chicago should find some inspiration this
evening after hearing that Vikings head coach Brad Childress will pull Favre
once the team has a substantial lead. I
do not have to tell you what happened to the undefeated Colts when they gave
Peyton Manning an early hook on Sunday.
One could make a very strong argument that tonight is Chicago’s own personal Super Bowl since this
is their home finale and is being broadcast on the national stage. Next week Chicago
will wrap up what has been a deplorable campaign at Detroit against an opponent who has lost more
games since mid-2007 than any other squad in NFL history. While the Bears will have problems focusing
against a Divisional opponent they do not respect, they will have complete
focus this evening as they attempt to damage the playoff seeding of a hated
opponent. For those of you who feel Chicago who is on a disastrous 0-7 ATS slide
has no chance of making us some money this evening, consider that Minnesota just happens
to be an awful 1-7 SU in their most recent eight visits to Solider Field. Even though the weather conditions are not
supposed to be all that bad foe this time of the year,
temperatures are forecast to be in the low 20’s which actually has some
significance statistically. The great
Bret Favre is 0-7 in his last seven ROAD starts (3 touchdowns versus 13
interceptions) when the game time temperature is below the 39-degree mark. In “post Thanksgiving” starts dating back to
2005 Favre also has a negative record (12-14) throwing twice as many
interceptions as touchdown passes in that span.
Turning to the other side of the football field Chicago is UNDEFEATED in
front of their own HOME fans (10-0) the past ten times the game time
temperature at Solider Field has been below the freezing mark and that
certainly is the case with tonight’s last kickoff time. Following Sunday’s results we now know who
all of the playoff entrants are in the NFC but there are still questions
regarding both seeding and home field advantage. With New Orleans
dropping their second consecutive home contest yesterday, Minnesota still has a shot at grabbing a
possible top NFC seed, but that has also led to some line inflation this
evening. That line has shot up from an
opening figure of 7’ points since Chicago
has been decimated by defensive injuries and both of their starting safeties
may miss this evening. Chicago’s defense has played most of the way
without vocal leader Brian Urlacher who made his
teammates accountable for mistakes made.
Bears defensive tackle Tommie Harris (knee) may not make it back on the
field for the remainder of the season.
Of course Jay Cutler’s maiden season in Chicago has been a disaster as he currently
leads the entire NFL with 25 interceptions.
Even though Chicago
has been a financial disaster for bettors having failed to cover the spread in
7 consecutive games, my database research indicates that there are two very
strong SYSTEMS that support the Bears.
Here is a 63-PERCENT SYSTEM (125-76 since 1983) that plays ON slow
starting underdogs (+3’/+10’) like Chicago outscored by an average of at least
5 points per game in the opening half, after 3 consecutive games where the
offense has put 17-or-less points on the scoreboard. Here is a 70-PERCENT SYSTEM (65-30 since
1983) that plays ON home underdogs like Chicago
off a road blowout loss of at least two touchdowns, in the month of December.
To add a bit more fuel to the fire Chicago
is an excellent 10-2 ATS/HOME long term when REVENGING a road loss against an
opponent of at least 14 points in margin.
With Chicago
losing one month ago by a 36-10 count at the Metrodome,
that 10-2 spread angle involving the Bears applies tonight. The bottom line is
that all of the national attention in this Monday Football season finale will
be placed on both the Vikings and Bret Favre which will ultimately motivate Chicago. I will wrap up this analysis with a late
breaking INJURY note as Minnesota
star defensive tackle Pat Williams will NOT be in the starting lineup. The major impact of that injury is that Minnesota will not be as
strong defending the run this evening.
If Chicago
mounts any type of rushing attack, much pressure will be taken off the
shoulders of troubled quarterback Jay Cutler
OPENING BOWL “5 UNIT” EVENT WINS ON CHRISTMAS EVE
With a combined 40% of
their offensive touchdown potential sidelined, Nevada’s high octane offense was held to
just 10 points which helped UNDER the total come through in a 45-10 Hawaii Bowl
rout
TONIGHT’S SPECIAL “5
UNIT” REDZONE BEST BET COLLEGE FOOTBALL TOTAL (Nevada versus Southern Methodist
UNDER 72’ in a Hawaii Bowl 8:05 eastern kickoff on ESPN): Due to injury and academics, Nevada will be
WITHOUT a pair of 1,000 yard rushers who combined on 54% of the team’s yards on
the ground along with 40-PERCENT of the offensive touchdowns. It is easy to see why the oddsmakers
posted the highest total of the Bowl season to date since we have a pair of
awful defenses involved. Southern
Methodist is equally bad both defending the run (#88) and pass (#82) with
extremely low national rankings in each category. It was one year ago when Nevada ranked dead
LAST in Division I-A defending the pass and amazingly in 2009 finished the
regular season “second-to-last” against the pass. To make matters even worse Nevada’s
second-year defensive coordinator has already LEFT the team in order to become
head coach at Portland
State. The Wolfpack also
have major personnel issues on their stop-unit as both a linebacker and safety
has been SUSPENDED for this game due to off-the-field violations. At this point you must be wondering why I am
crazy enough to be personally pounding UNDER the total even though Southern
Methodist head coach June Jones (run and shoot) and Nevada leader Chris Ault (Pistol) operate
elaborate and highly successful offensive sets.
The main reason why I love the UNDER has to do with serious issues
involving Nevada’s record setting offensive backfield that saw 3 different
players run for more than 1,000 yards on the ground. One of those running backs Vai Taua ranked #9 in the country
averaging 122 rush yards per contest. It
was Taua (10 rushing touchdowns) that stepped in a
year ago and rambled for more than 1,500 yards on the ground in relief of
injured star Luke Lippincott who was the Western Athletic Conference rushing
champ in 2007. Lippincott was granted an
extra year of eligibility in 2009 but the senior has played his last game due to
toe surgery. Both Lippincott and Taua (academics) are sitting OUT the Hawaii Bowl which is
going to put a ton of extra pressure on star quarterback Kaepernick
who came into this campaign MINUS both of his top 2008
wide receivers who graduated. As for SMU
their quarterback Kyle Pardon made only five starts after relieving injured
starter Bo Levi Mitchell. To make a long
story short the Mustangs are NOT masters of coach June
Jones’ infamous run-and-shoot attack yet even though they do have a #28 national
ranking in the passing department.
Tonight marks the first time in 25 long years that SMU has been in a
postseason Bowl game which means they have an extra contest to build confidence
for next campaign. Even though the SMU
defensive “3-4” alignment did not produce the desired statistical results, the
fact of the matter is that they have a lot of athletes at linebacker which
offsets a lack of bodies on the line.
The Mustangs have a lot of speed on defense according their coach and
tonight they get to face a severely “limited” offensive opponent WITHOUT two
players who combined to account for 40-PERCENT of the squad’s touchdowns. My database research indicates that Southern
Methodist long term has gone a staggering 7-0 UNDER/ROAD against quality
offensive opponents who average at least 31 points per contest. Here is a 77-PERCENT SYSTEM (34-10 past
decade exclusive to BOWL games) which takes teams like SMU and Nevada in a
non-conference affair featuring a pair of “second tier” Division I-A
conferences UNDER the total
COLLEGE BOWL GIFT CHRISTMAS EVE (Southern Methodist 45-10
OUTRIGHT rout)
COLLEGE FOOTBALL
INTANGIBLE SIDE (Southern Methodist +12’ versus Nevada
in an 8:05 eastern kickoff from the Hawaii Bowl on ESPN): Nevada football
had already gained a bad reputation of poor fan support for postseason Bowl
games which is one of the reasons why they were dispatched to Hawaii on Christmas Eve. Nevada’s
negative reputation is not going to improve in 2009 as they have sold only 100
of their ticket allotment which totaled more than 5,500. To make a long story short Nevada is going to have hardly any fan
support inside a Stadium where the locals are going to be rooting for head
coach June Jones who has reached legendary status on the island. Hawaii
was a disastrous 0-12 on the football field in 1998 which was one year before
Jones arrived and immediately turned the program around with his infamous “run
and shoot” offensive attack. Following
2007 when he led the Rainbow Warriors to a BCS postseason Bowl, Jones bolted
the program after the Hawaii
administration failed to upgrade facilities and provide the needed financial
incentives. June Jones arrived at SMU a
year ago and had problems reviving a once proud program that at the end of the
campaign had lost 21 of its last 22 games.
Despite a lousy 2008 overall record (1-11) Jones still found reason for
optimism as 4 of the 8 setback in conference play were by 7-or-less points. An extremely young contingent also gained
valuable experience which parlayed into a 2009 season (7-5) which saw the squad
make the nation’s biggest turnaround.
Southern Methodist very quietly has been one of college football’s best
stories as they are back in the postseason Bowl business for the first time in
25 YEARS. Most of you reading this
analysis will remember when a scandal-ridden Mustangs program received the NCAA
“death penalty” which shut down the entire program in both 1987 and 1988. Locally Bowl officials were disappointed that
hometown Hawaii
did not qualify for the postseason, but they are thrilled to welcome back
Mustangs coach June Jones who spent an entire decade reviving the Rainbow
Warriors program. As mentioned above in
the Best Bet totals analysis Nevada
who set an NCAA record with 3 different 1,000 rushers will be WITHOUT two of
them. Senior rusher Luke Lippincott (toe
surgery) and Kai Taua (academics) will not play after
accounting for 54% of Nevada’s
rushing yards and 40% of the team touchdowns.
To make matters worse Nevada
SUSPENDED a pair of defenders (linebacker and safety) due to off-the-field
issues. Even the coaching staff took a
hit as Nevada’s defensive coordinator has
already LEFT the program to become new head coach at Portland State. Here is a 77-PERCENT SYSTEM (30-9 the past
decade in non-conference play) which plays AGAINST heavy favorites like Nevada (-10’/-21 points)
who have won 60-to-80% of their outings, against an opponent with a winning
overall record. That system supports SMU
Solid 30-19 NFL
Premium releases since 12/14
College Premium Football closes on 42-20 mission
PREMIUM NFL 30-19 RUN
--12/21 Monday Football Giants (-2’) COVER with ease in a
45-12 rout at Redskins
--12/21 Monday Football Proposition Giants Steve Smith OVER
(6’) pass receptions misses as he had FIVE catches
--12/20 Best Bet Total Browns/Chiefs OVER (37) WINS BY
HALFTIME of a 41-34 shootout
--12/20 Best Bet Side Bengals (+7) COVER in a very close
27-24 decision at Chargers
--12/20 Best Bet Proposition Chad Ochocinco
OVER (67’) receiving yards WINS IN THE FIRST HALF (Bengals wide receiver 79
receiving yards in opening half alone)
--12/20 Lions (+14) COVER in a 31-24 home contest versus
Cardinals (a massive 25-2 system cashes another winning ticket)
--12/20 Falcons/Jets UNDER (35) WINS with ease in very low
scoring 10-7 contest played in heavy wind and cold
--12/20 Raiders (+14) OUTRIGHT in a shocking 20-19 upset at
Broncos
--12/19 NFL Network Best Bet Cowboys (+8) OUTRIGHT in a
shocking 24-17 road upset handing Saints their initial loss
--12/17 NFL Network Best Bet Colts/Jaguars OVER (43) WINS
NEARLY BY HALFTIME of a 35-31 shootout
--12/17 NFL Network Proposition Maurice Jones-Drew OVER
(90’) rushing yards WINS as the Jaguars star running back gains 110 on the ground
--12/14 Opening Monday Football “5 UNIT” Best Bet 49ers (+4)
OUTRIGHT 24-9 home upset of Cardinals
--12/14 Monday Football Proposition Michael Crabtree OVER
(63’) receiving yards WINS as 49ers rookie wideout
compiles 67 receiving yards
--12/15 Titans (-3) failed to cover at home after falling
behind the Chargers by a 35-10 count through three quarters
--12/27 “5 Unit” event Bills/Falcons OVER (40) fails in a
31-3 Atlanta
rout
--12/27 BEST BET Jets/Colts OVER (40’) WINS
in a 29-15 final verdict
--12/27 Rams (+15) fail to cover in a 31-10 setback at
Cardinals
--12/27 Lions (+14) PUSH in a 20-6 final verdict at 49ers
--12/27 Broncos (+7) COVER in a 30-27 nailbiter
at Eagles
--12/28 Bears (+8’) OUTRIGHT in stunning upset of Vikings in
the MNF finale
--12/28 MNF Proposition Robbie Gould OVER (5’) total points
WINS in the OPENING QUARTER
--1/3 “5 Unit” event Lions (+3) fail to cover finale in 37-23
home loss versus Bears
--1/3 Primetime Best Bet Bengals (+10) fail in humiliating
37-0 loss at Jets (fail to move up to #3 playoff seed)
--1/3 Best Bet Total Steelers/Dolphins UNDER (45) fails in
a 30-24 regular season high scoring finale
--1/3 Saints (+7) fail to cover 23-10 setback at Panthers
--1/3 Proposition Adrian Peterson OVER (95’) rush yards
fails as Vikings star ends up with just 54
--1/3 Cowboys (-3) COVER in 24-0 rout of Eagles
--1/9
“5 Unit” event Bengals (-2’) lose outright 24-14 versus Jets in
NFL Wildcard playoffs
--1/9 Jets/Bengals UNDER (34) fails in a 24-14 playoff
contest
--1/9 Eagles (+3’) fail in a 34-14 setback at Cowboys in
the Wildcard round
--1/10
“4 Unit” MARQUEE Best Bet Cardinals (+2’) OUTRIGHT 51-45 in
memorable 51-45 overtime shootout over Packers
--1/10
Ravens/Patriots UNDER (43’) just misses in 33-14 final verdict
--1/16 Special “5 UNIT” Best Bet event Colts (-3’) COVER in
first-half 17-3 versus Ravens
--1/16 Best Bet Proposition Jeremy Shockey
OVER (45’) receiving yards barely misses (Saints tight end 36 receiving yards
all in opening half)
--1/16 Colts (-6) COVER in 20-3 romp of Ravens
--1/16 Ravens/Colts UNDER (44) WINS in a low scoring 20-3
playoff clash
--1/16 Saints (-7) COVER in a 45-14 rout of the Cardinals
--1/17 Marquee NFL Best Bet Jets/Chargers OVER (42)
misses in AFC Divisional contest with just 31 points scored (ten-year “23-4”
System suffers rare setback)
--1/17 NFL MONEY LINE wager Jets (+290) pull off the
OUTRIGHT upset producing more than 2-Units of profit
--1/17 NFL Jets (+7’) OUTRIGHT 17-14 upset at Chargers
--1/17 NFL Cowboys/Vikings UNDER (45’) WINS in a 34-3 NFC
Divisional playoff
--1/17 NFL Proposition Adrian Peterson OVER (85’) rush
yards fails as Vikings star compiles only 63 yards on the ground
--1/24 Best Bet Jets (+8’) fail to cover AFC Championship
in a 30-17 setback
--1/24 Jets/Colts OVER (20) in the opening half WINS
--1/24 Best Bet Saints (-3’) fails by a HOOK in the NFC
Championship decided by a field goal in overtime
--1/24 Vikings/Saints UNDER (54) fails in a 31-28 overtime
shootout
--1/24 Best Bet Proposition Braylon
Edwards OVER (44’) receiving yards WINS on one 80-yard bomb
--1/31 Pro Bowl OVER (57’) WINS in a 41-34 shootout
--2/7 SUPER BOWL SIDE-AND-TOTAL SWEEP (Saints and Under)
23-14 FOOTBALL BEST BETS
FINAL THIRTY-THREE DAYS OF COVERAGE
--12/12 Army (+16) WIRE-TO-WIRE COVER
in 17-3 rivalry contest versus Navy
--12/13 Texans (-7) COVER with ease in 34-7 rout of
Seahawks
--12/13 Sunday NIGHT Eagles/Giants OVER (44) WINS AT
HALFTIME of eventual 45-38 shootout
--12/14 Monday 49ers (+4) OUTRIGHT WIRE-TO-WIRE 24-9 upset
of Cardinals
--12/17 Thursday Colts/Jaguars OVER (43) WINS NEARLY AT
HALFTIME of eventual 35-31 shootout
--12/19 Cowboys (+8) OUTRIGHT upset handing the Saints their
first setback of the season
--12/20 Browns/Chiefs OVER (37) WINS BY HALFTIME of a 41-34
shootout
--12/20 Bengals (+7) COVER in a very close 27-24 contest at
Chargers
--12/20 Proposition Chad Ochocinco
OVER (67’) receiving yards WINS BY HALFTIME (79 receiving yards opening half
alone)
--12/24 SMU/Nevada UNDER (72’) WINS with ease in a 45-10
final verdict in the Hawaii
Bowl
--12/26 Pittsburgh (-1)
COVERS in a 19-17 Car Care Bowl triumph versus North Carolina
--12/27 Bills/Falcons OVER (40) fails in a 31-3 Atlanta rout
--12/27 Jets/Colts OVER (40’) WINS in a 29-15 contest
--12/28 Bears (+8’) OUTRIGHT in stunning upset of Vikings
in MNF regular season finale
--12/29 Miami-Florida (-3’) fails in an ugly 20-14 outright
loss versus Wisconsin
--12/30 No football Best Bet releases
--12/31 Houston
(4’) fails to cover in a 47-20 outright Bowl loss versus Air Force
--12/31 Minnesota (-2)
fails to cover a 14-13 outright Bow loss to Iowa State
--1/1
Northwestern/Auburn OVER (55) WINS in a 38-35 Outback Bowl
shootout
--1/1
Ohio State (+4) OUTRIGHT in 26-17 Rose Bowl upset of Oregon
--1/2
East Carolina (+7’) COVERS in a 20-17 OVERTIME Liberty Bowl thriller
--1/3
Lions (+3) fail to cover home finale in 37-23 setback versus
Bears
--1/3 Bengals (+10) fail in humiliating 37-0 loss at Jets
(fail to move up to #3 playoff seed)
--1/3 Steelers/Dolphins UNDER (45) fails in a 30-24 regular
season high scoring finale
--1/4
Texas
Christian (-7) loses the Fiesta Bowl outright
--1/4
Boise State/Texas Christian UNDER (54) WINS with ease in a very
low scoring 17-10 Fiesta Bowl
--1/5
Georgia Tech (-5’) loses the Orange Bowl outright versus Iowa
--1/7
Texas/Alabama OVER (23) WINS in BCS Championship with 30 combined
opening half points scored
--1/9 Bengals (-2’) lose outright 24-14 at home versus Jets
in NFL Wildcard playoffs
--1/10 Cardinals (+2’) OUTRIGHT in memorable 51-45 overtime
shootout over Packers
--1/16 Special “5 UNIT” Best Bet event Colts (-3’) COVER in
first-half 17-3 versus Ravens
--1/16 Best Bet Proposition Jeremy Shockey
OVER (45’) receiving yards barely misses (Saints tight end 36 receiving yards
all in opening half)
--1/17 Marquee NFL Best Bet Jets/Chargers OVER (42)
misses in AFC Divisional contest with just 31 points scored (ten-year “23-4”
System suffers rare setback)
--1/24 AFC Championship Jets (+8’) fail to cover a 30-17
setback at Colts
--1/24 NFC Championship Saints (-3’) fail by a HOOK in a
31-28 straight-up triumph versus Vikings
--1/24 Proposition Braylon
Edwards OVER (44’) receiving yards WINS on one 80-yard bomb
--1/31 Pro Bowl OVER (57’) WINS in a 41-34 shootout
--2/7 Super Bowl UNDER (57) WINS in a 31-17 contest
--Football Best Bet
sides-and-totals sizzling “17-6” in month of December
--70-45 premium football final eight weeks (155-114
premium football final two-plus months)
--college football premium tear phenomenal 42-20 to
close season
--ranked #2 for entire college gridiron season as professionally
monitored at (www.sports-watch.com)
--NFL Sunday Best Bets excellent 21-12
past sixteen weeks (including 8 different NFL “double digit covers”)
--Monday Football 24-13 for season (including opening
MNF “5 UNIT” event underdog Niners OUTRIGHT 24-9 on
12/14)
--ranked #1 for entire pro gridiron season as
professionally monitored at (www.sports-watch.com)
--All Football BEST BETS 61 PERCENT (71-47) final 99
days of coverage
SATURDAY 12/19
PRIMETIME BEST BET (Cowboys stunning OUTRIGHT upset at Saints snapping New Orleans 13-game run)
TONIGHT’S “3 UNIT” NFL REDZONE BEST BET (Cowboys +8 at
Saints in a 8:20 eastern kickoff on NFL Network): Obviously this is a dangerous pick
considering that New Orleans is undefeated and have averaged nearly 37 points
per game in front of their rabid home fans.
In contrast Dallas
is now a dismal 5-12 in the final two months of the regular season with Tony Romo as their starting quarterback. But the bottom line is that the Cowboys
despite a pair of December setbacks have not played all that badly, especially
their embattled signal caller. In the
past pair of outings Romo has has
successfully completed more than 70-PERCENT of his pass attempts (5 TD, 0 INT)
for a grand total of 641 aerial yards.
Since Dallas
is ranked #3 overall in offensive production, there is no question they have
the ability to trade points on the scoreboard with the Saints. But the big news comes on defense where the
Cowboys are sure to play with extra EMOTION after seeing one of their best
players suffer a scary neck injury six days ago. Linebacker DeMarcus
Ware (team leading 9 SACKS) most likely will see some action wearing special
gear and appearing in “situational” schemes as a pass rusher. But even if Ware is not cleared to play
during pre-game warmups, his mere presence on the
sideline has to be an inspiration to his teammates who just under
one week ago saw him carted off the field immobilized. Dallas
has been criticized of playing “soft” and having a non-confrontational head
coach, but DeMarcus Ware (NFL leading 20 sacks last
year) is the symbol of toughness as he has never missed a game. The Cowboys defense received some much needed
good news this week as starting safety Ken Hamlin has a very good chance of
returning after missing 4 consecutive games with a painful and slow healing
high ankle sprain. As mentioned earlier
in this analysis tonight’s underdog actually has played a pair of very
competitive December contests where a break here or there could have swung the
final score in their direction. Two
weeks ago Dallas
traveled to Giants Stadium and faced a “desperate” opponent who had lost 5 of
their prior 6 outings. Last Sunday the
Cowboys went up against a confident San
Diego contingent that has now won 16 in a row in the
month of December. Of course one can
make a strong argument that the Pokes are in serious trouble again this evening
against a 13-0 opponent, but the fact of the matter is New Orleans has officially entered “rarified
air” as they have just reached a franchise record for victories. Back on Thursday Indianapolis found a way to extend their
undefeated streak but that franchise has won more regular season games the past
decade than any other NFL organization.
On Thursday the Colts did not have to lay nearly as many points as the
Saints because they were playing on the road.
The bottom line is that New
Orleans has to lay an “inflated” tag tonight against
what is a quality opponent. While Indianapolis has hinted they soon will be resting players
down the stretch, New Orleans
has yet to officially clinch the NFC’s #1 playoff seed which brings up a
pressure-filled scenario. Now that the
top playoff seed is within reach, many Saints players and members of team
management are reportedly eager to finish with a perfect 16-0 regular season to
help eliminate remnants of the franchise’s poor reputation as a hapless loser
which to me is actually a “red flag” so to speak. I mentioned earlier that Cowboy quarterback
Tony Romo this month has completed more than
70-PERCENT of his pass attempts. Romo was actually a reserve when current New Orleans head coach Sean Payton was
serving as the Cowboys quarterback coach (2003-to-2005) so he knows a thing or
two about that Saints mentor. Here is a
whopping “26-4” SYSTEM (87% past
five years) which plays ON road teams like Dallas off a game where they forced less than
2 turnovers, going up against an opponent who has committed less than 2 turnovers
in FOUR consecutive outings. That 26-4 ATS system supports underdog Dallas who this evening
has a chance to send a “message” to the league and national media that they are
not out of the playoff chase yet
THURSDAY 12/17 NFL
PRIMETIME BEST BET NEARLY WINS BY HALFTIME (35-31 shootout)
TONIGHT’S “3 UNIT”
REDZONE BEST BET NFL TOTAL (Colts at Jaguars OVER 43 in a 8:20 eastern kickoff
on NFL Network): Even though
Indianapolis has the league’s top-rated offensive attack, tonight’s total has
been kept in check partly due to Jacksonville’s recent problems scoring points
along with the fact that we have a 60% of rain in the deep south this
evening. Another reason why this posted
total has been kept relatively low is due to rumors that Indianapolis is going to rest some of their
regulars now that they have clinched home field throughout the playoffs. But apparently Indy rookie head coach Jim
Caldwell has heard the pleas of both quarterback
Peyton Manning and wide receiver Reggie Wayne who want to keep on playing. I will admit that the first meeting of the
season between these pair of squads at Indianapolis
back in week-one produced a very low scoring 14-12 affair. But hidden in that final score was the fact
that Reggie Wayne collected 10 pass receptions as he was going up against an
inexperienced Jacksonville
rookie cornerback. For those of you who
follow the NBA Kobe Bryant at the beginning of the week shot a season-low 16
points due to a finger injury and stomach virus. But the Lakers star came right back in the
next outing to post more than 40 points on the scoreboard. I bring up the Kobe Bryant situation because
Colts superstar Peyton Manning is coming off a victory last Sunday where he
threw for season-low completion percentage (47.6%) as he was slowed down by
what is a very talented Denver
secondary. With Manning being a
perfectionist, odds are very strong that his completion percentage this evening
against a banged up Jaguars secondary is going to be substantially better. Jacksonville
has played the past month without cornerback Rashaun
Mathis (groin) who just happens to be the team leader in interceptions. Jacksonville
also has injury issues with linebacker Clint Ingram (shoulder) and up front
with tackle John Henderson (shoulder) who missed this past Sunday. In Jacksonville’s
stunning home loss versus Miami
the Jaguars battered defense allowed a grand total of 352 yards and things most
likely will not improve tonight against the AFC’s top-ranked offense. Jacksonville
desperately needs to win their home finale to have a legitimate shot at one of
the playoff “wild card” spots. To help
cover for their ailing stop-unit, the Jaguars are going to have to find a way
to break out of an offensive funk which has seen them average just 12 points
per pop in the past three outings. In
that span star running back Maurice Jones-Drew failed to beat the 100-yard
plateau. The good news for Jones-Drew is
that the Indianapolis
defense has allowed a 100+ yard rusher SEVEN different times this season. I am sure most of you reading this analysis
heard that Indianapolis
placed 29 players on their injured list for this evening as their head coach
said all healthy bodies would see action.
In found it very telling that defensive ends Dwight Freeney
(abdomen) and Robert Mathis (quad) both were held OUT of practice sessions on
Tuesday and Wednesday. With the Colts
already operating with mostly rookies in their secondary due to injuries, any
absentees up front on the line is seriously going to have a negative effect on
the stop-unit. Speaking of negative Jacksonville just happens
to have the WORST pass rush in their conference which is going to give Peyton
Manning plenty of time to do his thing.
My database research indicates that this is a very high percentage wager
as Indianapolis
is a staggering 11-1 OVER/ROAD since 1992 after successfully covering the
spread 4 times in a 5-game span. As
mentioned previously these two teams played to a very low scoring 14-12 final
verdict way back on the opening week of the regular season. Jacksonville
just happens to be 6-0 OVER the total with Jack Del Rio as their head coach
when revenging an extremely close loss (3-or-less points in margin) against an
opponent! One may want to call this a
law of averages pick as all 8 Thursday Night NFL Network telecasts have stayed
below the spot, but all that has done is give us plenty of value to work with
OPENING MONDAY FOOTBALL 5-UNIT BEST BET OF SEASON WINS
ON 12/14
As you will see below in
the analysis nothing has come easy for the Cardinals franchise who has not won
consecutive divisional titles in 34 years.
As promised by their intense head coach San Francisco layed
it all on the line in a 24-9 outright triumph ON 12/14
TONIGHT’S SPECIAL “5 UNIT”
REDZONE FOOTBALL BEST BET (49ers +4’ at home versus Cardinals in a 8:35 eastern
kickoff on ESPN): It comes as no
surprise that the line on tonight’s contest has jumped up from an opening
figure of 3 points in part due to the fact that Arizona last Sunday evening
with the entire nation watching pulled off a very impressive and stunning upset
of Bret Favre’s Minnesota Vikings. Even
though the Cardinals with a victory this evening can clinch the NFC West title,
in my mind this team is in a classic emotional “letdown” situation. Certainly the money-line is different as last
Sunday Night at home the Cardinals were getting points from the oddsmakers, but this evening they are a prohibitive
favorite on the road against a reeling opponent. San Francisco comes into this evening has
lost 6 of the past 8 outings which is in stark contrast to an impressive 3-1
start at the beginning of the regular season which included an opening week
20-16 road upset at Arizona. Even though
the 49ers are in a 2-6 slide, closer inspection sees
that in the past month (2-2) they have actually been a .500 team. Most of the general wagering public must have
thrown in the towel so to speak regarding San Francisco
when they dropped a 20-17 decision at Seattle
last Sunday, but I for one forgive them due to a unique situation. Last Sunday the Seahawks had a very rare game
in front of their own fans after playing 3 consecutive contests on the
road. Even though the 49ers playoff
hopes have been all but extinguished their INTENSE and “old school” head coach
Mike Singletary says there is still a glimmer of hope for a postseason spot and
that his team this evening is going to “lay it all on the line” by playing very
physical on both sides of the football.
Despite their current 5-7 overall record one should consider that San Francisco has played
basically very CLOSE games as 6 of their defeats have come by a
touchdown-or-less. Yesterday one would
have thought that undefeated New Orleans would
have a cakewalk against a very banged up Atlanta
contingent playing without their lead quarterback. But the fact of the matter is that the
Falcons successfully covered the spread as a home underdog yesterday in what
was a DIVISIONAL contest and that just happens to be the same exact setup we
have on this particular Monday Night.
Even though red-hot Arizona
can clinch the NFC West with a victory this evening in what is essentially a
revenge game, consider that the Cardinals franchise has NOT won consecutive
divisional titles in 34 YEARS so nothing comes easy for them. The first game with Mike Singletary as head
coach did not come easy for 49ers tight end Vernon Wells who was pulled off the
field and sent to the showers early due to a personal foul penalty. To make a long story short Davis has grown tremendously in the past year
and is now being lauded by his head coach.
Davis
leads his team in receptions (63) and is also tied for the NFL lead with 10
touchdown catches by a tight-end which also is a 49ers single-season
record. San Francisco has a multi-faceted offense
that began the season leaning heavily on running back Frank Gore, but now they
throw 63% of the time with a very talented receiving trio that includes #1
draft pick Michael Crabtree which has given the team a legitimate deep threat. During halftime of game-six the 49ers ended
up switching quarterbacks from Shaun Hill to former #1 draft pick Alex
Smith. It may seem like an eternity but
Smith was part of Urban Meyer’s “spread” offense during his collegiate days at Utah. Even though he has suffered a myriad of
injuries at the professional level along with having to adjust almost annually
to new coordinators, Smith enters tonight’s game with great confidence after
coming off a CAREER HIGH 310 yard passing performance. In the past three games Smith has thrown 7
different touchdown passes and will give Kurt Warner a run for his money. What really excites me about San
Francisco is their DEFENSE which arguably may be the best in the
NFC West and they shut down Arizona
20-16 in the season opener. In that
contest San Francisco
kept the number of blitzes to a minimum essentially leaving it to the
front-four to pressure Kurt Warner. The
49ers varied their coverage schemes throughout the contest all while keeping
double-coverage on star wideout Larry
Fitzgerald. In that season opener
Fitzgerald had six catches for 71 yards and a touchdown, but the bottom line is
that he was unable to get deep for big plays.
In that first meeting back in September Arizona’s defense held 49er star rusher
Frank Gore to only 1.4 yards per carry, but they did NOT have to concern
themselves much with getting hurt vertically.
Certainly San Francisco
now does have vertical threats with quarterback Alex Smith now the starter and
rookie Michael Crabtree providing a more dynamic downfield threat than Isaac
Bruce did to start the season. Arizona’s defense held
Vikings star Adrian Peterson to just 19 rush yards last week, but they have a
lot more than just Frank Gore to think about this evening. I will admit that Cardinals quarterback Kurt
Warner has completed 72% of his passes in the past 14 quarters, but that just
opens up an interesting database angle from my database research. In the past three years in the “second half”
of the season San Francisco is UNDEFEATED where it counts (6-0 ATS) when facing
an excellent passing opponent who completes an average of at least 64% of their
attempts. San Francisco used to appear regularly on the
Monday Night stage back in the championship days of head coach Bill Walsh and
quarterback Joe Montana. Dating back to
1992 San Francisco
is a productive 21-9 ATS on the Monday Night stage and they make a grand return
tonight. This pick is backed by a mind
boggling “24-3” SYSTEM which dates back
to 1983. This phenomenal 24-3 ATS
system plays ON home underdogs of 3’-to-10 points like San Francisco in a game
involving a pair of poor rushing teams (70-to-95 rush yards per game), after
gaining 99-or-less running yards in consecutive contests. It was as a long wait for Mike Singletary
before landing a job as a head coach and tonight he appears on the big stage
for the entire nation to see
60-PERCENT FOOTBALL BEST BETS (71-49) FINAL 100 DAYS
--solid 23-10 last thirty-three NFL Primetime TV sides+totals (9-3 Monday Football final five weeks including
all 5 WINNING sides)
--amazing 42-20 college football premium service tear
to close the season
--All premium FOOTBALL final eight weeks (71-46) covered at
60% clip
RARE SUNDAY “NIGHT” BEST BET WINS BY HALFTIME
An absolute totals gift
Sunday evening (12/13) on NBC as the Eagles/Giants hooked up in a memorable
45-38 shootout that featured 47 combined points at halftime
TONIGHT’S “3 UNIT”
REDZONE BEST BET TOTAL (Eagles at Giants OVER 44 in a 8:20 eastern kickoff on
NBC): It was one week ago when NBC for
the first time this season took advantage of the “flex” schedule as all of
America got to see Bret Favre in a marquee Vikings/Cardinals matchup in
controlled and perfect indoor weather conditions. With a pair of lethal offenses involved the oddsmakers were forced to post an inflated total (48’) and
the contest promptly stayed below the spot.
But the situation for this particular primetime contest is completely
different this week as the telecast moves outdoors where weather is going to be
an issue. There is a 100% chance of rain
this evening in the Meadowlands but we will not be looking at a snowy
field. As I type this analysis at the
noontime eastern hour the winds in East Rutherford are relatively light and
even though the forecast for this evening calls for winds of 15-to-25 miles per
hour that is not going to make it impossible for both teams to throw the
football. It was one week ago when the
Philadelphia defense came less than one minute away from pitching a shutout but
that is a mirage considering that Atlanta was playing without their star
quarterback, running back and even one of their starting wide receivers. Prior to last week that Philadelphia defense yielded lofty point
totals (24, 20, 23) in a three-game span. What most caught my attention last week was
that Philadelphia
at long last incorporated Michael Vick in the attack and he generated a pair of
touchdowns. According to Vick the
offensive coaches will be using him more down the stretch and this gives
opposing defenses more to worry about even though lead running back Brian
Westbrook (concussion) remains sidelined.
Philadelphia
wide receiver DeSean Jackson (44 receptions, 6
touchdowns, 17’ yards per reception) is expected to
see action tonight after sitting out last Sunday also due to concussion
issues. As for the Giants they had gone
5 full quarters without scoring a touchdown but that all came to a close in
last week’s 31-24 home shootout where the team came through with big plays including
a 74 yard touchdown reception by a running back. The Giants also scored on special teams last
week as a 79-YARD punt return was their longest in 10 years. Going into this campaign the NFC East on a
national level was seen as football’s best division but that is not the case
primarily due to a handful of high scoring affairs. The Giants are 4-0 OVER this year in
“divisional” contests where the offense has put up 26 points per contest. Philadelphia
is 3-1 OVER this season against the NFC East putting up more than 27 points per
pop. The Giants are an eye opening 6-0
OVER/HOME the past three years in the second half of the season against solid
offensive squads that average at least 5.65 yards per play. In the long coaching career of Tom Coughlin
his teams both in New York and Jacksonville have gone
12-3 OVER/HOME when off an outright triumph against a “divisional”
opponent. Tonight’s game has been priced
at almost a virtual “pick em” which is large
considering Philadelphia
is 15-6 OVER the total the past three years where the line (+3/-3)
calls for a close contest
42-20 COLLEGE FOOTBALL PREMIUM TEAR TO CLOSE SEASON
College football regular
season ends with BEST BET (Army) wire-to-wire cover
Army (+16) COVERED in a 17-3 rivalry contest that was
actually closer than the final scored indicated
TODAY’S “3 UNIT” REDZONE COLLEGE FOOTBALL BEST BET (Army
+16 versus Navy in a 2:35 eastern kickoff on CBS): Over the years this rivalry has started to
lose significance in the public eye which is why a deal was worked out with CBS
to move up this contest ahead a full week.
In an effort to rekindle the true spirit that Army/Navy brings this
contest now has its own special date and no longer has to go up against various
conference championship games which traditionally has marked the final week of
college football’s regular season. One
of the reasons why this contest has contest has started to lose luster on a
national level has to do with all the recent blowouts by Navy which means it is
critical for sheer ratings purposes that we have a COMPETITIVE game this
afternoon. Odds of that have been made
much stronger since Army is one victory away from becoming Bowl eligible and
landing a promised spot in the new postseason event that will be played in Washington D.C. After a dozen consecutive losing seasons the
Army brass got serious about salvaging a once proud football program last
December. Normally a conservative bunch
the Army commanders made a bold statement by turning over the keys to the
program to veteran head coach Rich Ellerson who made
a name for himself as an innovator for eight seasons at Cal-Poly. One of the first things Ellerson
did was install a “triple option” attack that is a design Navy has implemented
for seemingly decades. I will admit that
Army’s version of the triple-option has not come close to the success of Navy,
but the Black Knights actually do have the option of passing out of that
formation. Many of you reading this
analysis will remember one of the victories this season by Navy was a contest
where they did NOT attempt single pass due to poor weather which brings into
question just how good the Middies really are.
According to coach Ellerson the PASSING game
is what separates his “spread option” as opposed to other teams across the
country. Ellerson
brought along his offensive coordinator Ian Shields from Cal Poly which is
important since that school a year ago at the Division I-AA level was ranked #2
nationally in pass efficiency. Similar
to the team they are facing this afternoon, Army has a duel-threat quarterback
as Trent Steelman has actually led the team in
rushing FIVE times in the past 7 games.
Even though he is not the greatest passer, the bottom line is that Steelman has already recorded a school-record for most WINS
by a freshman quarterback. What really
excites me about Army’s attack is the sudden continuity across the offensive
line which has used the same personnel in SIX consecutive outings. Getting back to the Black Knights new head
coach Rich Ellerson has also installed a DEFENSIVE
version of Arizona’s
“desert swarm” from two decades ago.
Army’s new defense is predicated on speed and the ability to hit plus
the “double eagle flex formation” suits the personnel of an Academy stop-unit
that is top heavy with linebackers and defensive backs. Keep an eye on Army’s Josh McNarry who just happens to have a lofty #3 national
ranking with an average of 1.14 SACKS per contest as he has flushed opposing
quarterbacks out of the pocket this entire campaign. The amount of Navy wins (8) is different from
Army (5) but the Black Knights have already recorded the most victories in a
single season since way back in 1996.
Today is the 110th renewal of a rivalry that is way overdue to see a
CLOSE contest. Since Navy is on a
serious 13-4 spread roll in this series, that line of today’s game has shot up
from an opening figure of 14 points and I am taking advantage of the value with
Army who has radically improved from 2008 mainly due to hiring an “impact” head
coach
Ranked #2 college and #1
NFL for the entire season up against the handicapping elite as professionally
monitored at (www.sports-watch.com)
71-45
PREMIUM FOOTBALL FINAL NINE WEEKS
42-20 COLLEGE PREMIUM FOOTBALL FINAL TWENTY-FOUR DAYS OF COVERAGE
83-49 PREMIUM FOOTBALL LONG TERM
23-10 NFL PRIMETIME TV SIDES-AND-TOTALS
FINAL THIRTY-FIVE DAYS OF COVERAGE
MONDAY FOOTBALL TOTAL OF THE YEAR SCORES (11/30)
The month of November
wrapped up in style (38-17 final score)
TONIGHT’S “4 UNIT”
REDZONE BEST BET FOOTBALL TOTAL (Patriots at Saints UNDER 57’ in a 8:35 eastern kickoff on ESPN): The obvious wager regarding this most anticipated
Monday matchup would be to take the contest above the spot since we have a
battle between the NFL’s two highest scoring attacks. But as we saw last night the totals script
does not always follow the script so to speak.
With Pittsburgh down to a #3-string quarterback and facing an a solid
defensive opponent, one would have thought the Steelers/Ravens NBC Sunday clash
would be very low scoring but the oddsmakers proved
to be one step ahead. Of course
tonight’s over/under spot not only is inflated, it has jumped up from an
opening figure of 56 points and I am taking full advantage of the value created
this afternoon. One of the KEYS to this
total has to do with New England’s nationally televised Sunday Night NBC
appearance two weeks ago when they ended up playing above the spot at Indianapolis. Most of you reading this analysis remember
the infamous fourth quarter of that contest when New England head coach Bill Belichick made a highly publicized decision to go for it on
“fourth down” deep in their own territory which many prognosticators felt was a
slap in the face of what is a patchwork and extremely young Patriots
defense. The bottom line is that tonight
New England stop-unit gets to show both their
head coach and the nation that they still can be a factor especially in crunch
time. I have found out that in recent
weeks Belichick’s secondary has been flashing a
greater variety of coverages as opposed to earlier in
the season so he has not exactly given up on his troops. Even though star quarterback Tom Brady has
reeled off 5 consecutive 300+ yard passing performances, one has to remember
that Belichick built the Patriots empire
on DEFENSE as he both loves to rush and confuse opposing signal callers with
confusing disguises. The other KEY to this
selection has to do with what the New
Orleans head coach did in the offseason actually
giving up part of his salary in order for the team to go out and sign veteran
DEFENSIVE coordinator Gregg Williams.
Even though the Saints still tend to give up too many points the fact of
the matter is that they lead the league in takeaways with 20 interceptions and
9 fumble recoveries. Dating back to
training camp Williams has drilled his defensive
troops to go after the football at all times and that aggressiveness certainly
has paid off. Williams actually rewards
his defensive personnel who force turnovers with a point-system. I am fully aware that New
Orleans has injuries to some defensive secondary personnel, but
that is also the case with Indianapolis
who is still undefeated. On the other
side of the football one of the Saints wide receivers Lance Moore is OUT
tonight due to injury and the punt return team also has injury issues. New
Orleans is averaging 36.9 points per game and Drew Brees has thrown touchdown passes to 12 different
players. In the past five outings Tom
Brady has thrown for 300+ yards each game where the team has put up 37 points
per pop, but once again that has only inflated tonight’s spot which I look at
as the MONDAY TOTAL OF THE YEAR. In the long reign of Bill Belichick
in New England his Patriots have gone 13-4
UNDER versus incredible offensive attacks that put up at least 29 points per
game. In the second half of the season
in that situation Belichick and New
England have gone UNDER SIX CONSECUTIVE TIMES
29-19 PREMIUM FOOTBALL FINAL ELEVEN SUNDAY CARDS
--11/29 “4 Unit” MARQUEE Best Bet Dolphins/Bills OVER (38’) WINS in a 31-14 contest
--11/29 Best Bet side Rams (+4) fails to cover in a 27-17
home loss versus Seahawks
--11/29 Best Bet PROPOSITION Chris Chambers OVER (50’)
receiving yards WINS as the Chiefs wideout had 70 in
his return against ex-team
--11/29 Chiefs (+13’) fail to cover a 43-14 road loss at
Chargers
--11/29 Panthers/Jets UNDER (41’) WINS in a very low
scoring 17-6 contest
--11/29 Steelers/Ravens OVER (34) WINS Sunday Night in an
NBC televised 20-17 OVERTIME clash
--12/6 “4 Unit” MARQUEE Best Bet Raiders/Steelers OVER (37) WINS in a wild 27-24 shootout where 35 combined points were
scored in the final quarter
--12/6 Best Bet side Chiefs (+6) fail to cover in an ugly
44-13 home setback
--12/6 Panthers (-5) COVER in a 16-6 home triumph versus
the Buccaneers
--12/6 Rams/Bears UNDER (41) WINS with ease in a very low
scoring 17-9 contest
--12/6 Vikings/Cardinals OVER (48’) barely misses in a
30-17 primetime encounter
--12/13 “4 Unit” MARQUEE Best Bet Texans (-7) COVER with ease
in 34-7 home rout of opponent playing away for the 4th time in 5
weeks
--12/13 rare Sunday NIGHT BEST BET Eagles/Giants OVER (44)
WINS BY HALFTIME of a wild 45-38 shootout
--12/13 Bengals/Vikings OVER (43’) barely misses in 30-10
contest
--12/13 Rams/Titans OVER (41) WINS in an amazing offensive
performance by Tennessee
(47-7 final score)
--12/13 Redskins (-1) COVER with ease in a 34-13 road win at
Raiders
--12/13 Proposition Giants (-115) to “score first” fails
--12/20 Best Bet Total Browns/Chiefs OVER (37) WINS BY
HALFTIME of a 41-34 shootout
--12/20 Best Bet Side Bengals (+7) COVER in a very close
27-24 contest at Chargers
--12/20 Best Bet Proposition Chad Ochocinco
OVER (67’) receiving yards WINS as Bengals wideout
had 79 in opening half alone
--12/20 Falcons/Jets UNDER (35) WINS with ease in very low
scoring 10-7 game played in strong winds
--12/20 Lions (+14) COVER in a competitive 31-24 home game
versus Cardinals
--12/20 Raiders (+14) OUTRIGHT upset 20-19 at Broncos
--12/27 “5 Unit” event Bills/Falcons OVER (40) fails in a
31-3 Atlanta
rout
--12/27 BEST BET Jets/Colts OVER (40’) WINS
in a 29-15 final verdict
--12/27 Rams (+15) fail to cover in a 31-10 setback at
Cardinals
--12/27 Lions (+14) PUSH in a 20-6 final verdict at 49ers
--12/27 Broncos (+7) COVER in a 30-27 nailbiter
at Eagles
--1/3 “5 Unit” event Lions (+3) fail to cover finale in 37-23
home loss versus Bears
--1/3 Primetime Best Bet Bengals (+10) fail in humiliating
37-0 loss at Jets (fail to move up to #3 playoff seed)
--1/3 Best Bet Total Steelers/Dolphins UNDER (45) fails in
a 30-24 regular season high scoring finale
--1/3 Saints (+7) fail to cover 23-10 setback at Panthers
--1/3 Proposition Adrian Peterson OVER (95’) rush yards
fails as Vikings star ends up with just 54
--1/3 Cowboys (-3) COVER in 24-0 rout of Eagles
--1/10 Best Bet Cardinals (+2’) OUTRIGHT in 51-45 overtime shootout
over Packers
--1/10 Ravens/Patriots UNDER (43’) just misses in 33-14
wildcard playoff
--1/17 Best Bet Jets/Chargers OVER (42) misses in AFC
Divisional contest with just 31 points scored (ten-year “23-4” System suffers
rare setback)
--1/17 MONEY LINE wager Jets (+290) pull off the
OUTRIGHT upset producing more than 2-Units of profit
--1/17 Jets (+7’) OUTRIGHT 17-14 upset at Chargers
--1/17 Cowboys/Vikings UNDER (45’) WINS in a 34-3 NFC
Divisional playoff
--1/17 Proposition Adrian Peterson OVER (85’) rush yards
fails as Vikings star compiles only 63 yards on the ground
--1/24 Best Bet Jets (+8’) fail to cover AFC Championship
in a 30-17 setback
--1/24 Jets/Colts OVER (20) in the opening half WINS
--1/24 Best Bet Saints (-3’) fails by a HOOK in the NFC Championship
decided by a field goal in overtime
--1/24 Vikings/Saints UNDER (54) fails in a 31-28 overtime
shootout
--1/24 Best Bet Proposition Braylon
Edwards OVER (44’) receiving yards WINS on one 80-yard bomb
--1/31 Pro Bowl OVER (57’) WINS in a 41-34 shootout
--2/7 Super Bowl SIDE AND TOTAL SWEEP (Saints and Under)
20-9 PREMIUM FOOTBALL FINAL EIGHT SATURDAY CARDS
--11/28 Primetime
Best Bet
San Jose State
(-11) failed to cover even though Spartans won home finale 13-10 straight-up
--11/28 Afternoon Best Bet North Texas (+8) COVERS in a
30-26 battle at Arkansas
State
--11/28 Best Bet “24-3” SYSTEM Washington
(-24’) COVERS in 30-0 shutout of Washington
State
--11/28 North Carolina
State (+6) OUTRIGHT 28-27 upset of
visiting North Carolina
--11/28 Mississippi/Mississippi State OVER (47) WINS with ease
in 41-27 shootout
--11/28 ABC-TV primetime Notre Dame/Stanford OVER (63) WINS
with ease in a 45-38 shootout
--12/5 special “5 Unit” Best Bet Florida
International (-2) fails to cover in a 28-21 home loss against main rival Florida Atlantic
--12/5 BEST BET TOTAL Texas/Nebraska UNDER (46’) WINS in a
very low scoring 13-12 clash in the Big 12 Championship
--12/5 Pittsburgh (+2’)
COVERS in a wild 45-44 home shootout versus Cincinnati
--12/5 Georgia Tech (pick) COVERS in a thrilling 39-34
triumph versus Clemson in the Atlantic
Coast Conference
Championship
--12/12 BEST BET Army (+16) COVERS WIRE TO WIRE in 17-3
rivalry clash
--12/12 Army/Navy OVER (41) fails in 17-3 contest
--12/19 NFL BEST BET Cowboys (+8) OUTRIGHT road upset
handing Saints first loss of season
--12/19 “New
Mexico Bowl” Wyoming/Fresno State UNDER (55) fails on
a field goal with less than one minute remaining in regulation (35-28 final in
DOUBLE-OT)
--12/26 Car Care Bowl Best Bet Pittsburgh
(-1) COVERS in a 19-17 victory versus North
Carolina
--12/26 North Carolina/Pittsburgh UNDER (45’) WINS in a low
scoring 19-17 contest
--12/26 Ohio (-3) fail to
cover the Motor City
Bowl in a 21-17 setback versus Marshall
--1/2
Liberty Bowl Best Bet East Carolina (+7’)
COVERS a thrilling 20-17 OVERTIME affair versus Arkansas
--1/2
Cotton Bowl Total Mississippi/Oklahoma State UNDER (51) WINS in
very low scoring 21-7 contest (23 point cover)
--1/2
South Florida (-7) COVERS in a 27-3 rout of Northern
Illinois
--1/2
Liberty Bowl Total Arkansas/East Carolina UNDER (63’) WINS
with ease in 20-17 overtime game (26’ point cover)
--1/9
“5 Unit” event Bengals (-2’) lose outright 24-14 versus Jets in
NFL Wildcard playoffs
--1/9 Jets/Bengals UNDER (34) fails in a 24-14 playoff
contest
--1/9 Eagles (+3’) fail in a 34-14 setback at Cowboys in
the Wildcard round
--1/16 Special “5 UNIT” Best Bet event Colts (-3’) COVER in
first-half 17-3 versus Ravens
--1/16 Best Bet Proposition Jeremy Shockey
OVER (45’) receiving yards barely misses (Saints tight end 36 receiving yards all
in opening half)
--1/16 Colts (-6) COVER in 20-3 romp of Ravens
--1/16 Ravens/Colts UNDER (44) WINS in a low scoring 20-3
playoff clash
--1/16 Saints (-7) COVER in a 45-14 rout of the Cardinal
HOLIDAY WEEKEND BEGINS WITH “5 UNIT” NFL BEST BET WIN ON
THANKSGIVING DAY
23-12 NFL BEST BETS FINAL
SIXTEEN SUNDAY CARDS
--10/18 Saints (-3) crush the Giants 48-27
--10/18 Titans/Patriots OVER (39) wins by HALFTIME of a
59-0 contest
--10/25 rare “5 Unit”
event Jets/Raiders OVER (34’) WINS in a 38-0 New York blowout
--10/25 opening Sunday
NIGHT marquee “4 Unit” monster Cardinals (+7) OUTRIGHT 24-17 upset at Giants
--11/1 Rams/Lions UNDER
(43’) covers by 16’ points in a very low
scoring 17-10 contest
--11/1 Dolphins (+3’) OUTRIGHT road upset 30-25 at Jets
--11/8 AFC TOTAL OF THE
YEAR Texans/Colts UNDER (50) WINS with ease in a low scoring 20-17
contest
--11/8 Lions (+10’) barely miss in a 32-20 setback (Seahawks
61-yard interception return with 23 SECONDS remaining)
--11/15 Chiefs/Raiders OVER
(36’) fails in a 16-10 contest (just three points scored entire second half)
--11/15 Sunday NIGHT
Total Patriots/Colts OVER (48) WINS in a 35-34 classic shootout
--11/15 Proposition Tampa’s Cadillac Williams
OVER (50’) rush yards WINS in his first professional clash versus former
college teammate Ronnie Brown (52 yards gained)
--11/22 Colts/Ravens OVER (44) fails in a 17-15 clash
(while “Jets/Patriots” total PUSHED)
--11/29 “4 Unit” MARQUEE Best
Bet Total Dolphins/Bills OVER (38’) WINS in a 31-14 contest
--11/29 Rams (+4) fail
to cover in a 27-17 home loss versus Seahawks
--11/29 Proposition
Chris Chambers OVER (50’) receiving yards WINS as he gains 70 receiving yards
against former team
--12/6 “4 Unit” MARQUEE
Best Bet Raiders/Steelers OVER (37) WINS in a wild
27-24 contest which featured a combined 35 points in the final quarter
--12/6 Chiefs (+6)
fail to cover in an ugly 44-13 home setback versus Broncos
--12/13 “4 Unit” MARQUEE
Best Bet Texans (-7) COVERS with ease in a 34-7 home rout of opponent playing 4th
away game in the past five weeks
--12/20 “4 Unit” MARQUEE
Best Bet Browns/Chiefs OVER (37) WINS BY HALFTIME of a
41-34 shootout
--12/20 Bengals (+7)
COVER in a very close 27-24 contest at Chargers
--12/20 Proposition Chad Ochocinco OVER (67’) receiving yards WINS BY HALFTIME (79
yards in opening half alone)
--12/27 “5 Unit” MARQUEE
Best Bet Bills/Falcons OVER (40) fails in a 31-3 rout
by Atlanta
--12/27 Jets/Colts OVER
(40’) WINS in a 29-15 contest
--1/3 “5 Unit” MARQUEE Best Bet Lions (+3)
fail to cover finale in 37-23 home setback versus Bears
--1/3 “4 Unit” Marquee Best Bet Bengals
(+10) with chance to improve playoff seeding lose 37-0 in humiliating fashion
at Jets (regular season finale)
--1/3 Steelers/Dolphins UNDER (45) fails in
a 30-24 final verdict
--1/10 “4 Unit” Marquee
Best Bet Cardinals (+2’) OUTRIGHT in 51-45 overtime shootout over Packers
--1/17 “4 Unit” Marquee Best Bet Jets/Chargers OVER (42) misses
in AFC Divisional contest with just 31 points scored (ten-year “23-4” System
suffers rare setback)
--1/24 Best Bet Jets (+8’) fail to cover AFC Championship
in a 30-17 setback
--1/24 Best Bet Saints (-3’) fails by a HOOK in the NFC
Championship decided by a field goal in overtime
--1/24 Best Bet Proposition Braylon
Edwards OVER (44’) receiving yards WINS on one 80-yard bomb
--1/31 Pro Bowl OVER (57’) WINS in a 41-34 shootout
--2/7 Super Bowl UNDER (57) WINS in 31-17 contest
“5 Unit” NFL
Thanksgiving Best Bet WIN
The first NFL “5 Unit” bombshell in 32 days scores on Turkey
Day in Motown (34-12 final score)
TODAY’S SPECIAL “5 UNIT”
REDZONE NFL BEST BET TOTAL (Packers at Lions UNDER 47’ in a 12:35 eastern
kickoff on FOX): The bottom line is that
both of these teams produced shocking results in the totals department this
past Sunday and I am going to take advantage of those aberrations. Green Bay just happens to be ranked NUMBER
ONE in total defense allowing an average of just 295 yards per contest, however
they are coming off a 30-24 shootout against a very solid San Francisco defense
that a few weeks ago held the Colts to just 18 points in Indianapolis (along
with a very low scoring Thursday night affair versus Chicago). The reason why last Sunday’s Green Bay/San
Francisco clash was so high scoring has to do with the fact that the Packers
lost a pair of veteran defensive leaders in the second-half and had no real
time to adjust. Green Bay’s defense suddenly has become
extremely young as linebacker Aaron Kampman and
cornerback Al Harris are both out for the rest of the campaign with major knee
injuries. To make a long story short a
now very young Packers stop-unit is bound to have problems down the stretch
facing quality opposition in 4 of the final 5 regular season contests. Even though they have had a “short week” to
prepare, Green Bay gets a much needed break as they are facing a banged up
Detroit offense that most likely will be without starting quarterback Matthew
Stafford (shoulder) and possibly start wide receiver Calvin Johnson (hand/knee). It has been another long season in Detroit (2-8) and one the
main reasons has to do with a porous defense that has allowed the most combined
points in the entire NFL. Despite that
shaky stop-unit, Sunday’s classic 38-37 shootout with Cleveland still was a stunner considering the
awful Browns offense came into the contest average just 8.7 points per
contest. One could make an argument that
Cleveland’s
offense was out to prove a point fresh off a nationally televised Monday
disaster where quarterback Brady Quinn showed he cannot throw the football
accurately deep downfield. Today in
front of a National TV audience it is now the Lions turn to prove that their
stop-unit can perform to a higher level especially since head coach Jim
Schwartz is a former DEFENSIVE coordinator.
It was just a few weeks ago when Schwartz publicly proclaimed that his
defensive secondary was at is healthiest point of the entire season, but the
weekly ravaging has continued in part because they spend way too much time on
the field. The bottom line is that all
of the major injuries for the Lions fall on the offensive side of the football
led by quarterback Matthew Stafford who just set a rookie record with a
422-yard passing performance and became the youngest player to throw 5 touchdowns
in one single game. Stafford was
actually hurt earlier this campaign in a 26-0 loss at Green Bay when reserve Daunte
Culpepper completed only 6-of-14 pass attempts and it appears that Culpepper is
going to be pressed into service again.
For those of you who may not be aware former Carolina
and Houston headmaster Dom Capers is now the defensive coordinator at Green Bay and has always had one of the most
creative minds in the business. One strength of Capers’ “3-4” defensive alignment is
dictating protection mismatches against running backs. Capers will send defensive backs and
linebackers on blitzes seeking to create a mismatch that leaves a defensive
lineman alone against a running back.
Pass protection has been a weakness for Detroit
including back in week-six at Green
Bay when they allowed five sacks and 11 quarterback
hits. Speaking of a shaky offensive line
Green Bay has
allowed a league worst 43 sacks including Aaron Rodgers being nailed 5 times by
the Lions in the first meeting. Turning to
the database here is a 72-PERCENT SYSTEM (26-10 past five years) that plays
average defensive teams like Green Bay who allow 18-to-23 points per game UNDER
the total against a horrible defensive opponent off a contest where a combined
50+ points were put on the scoreboard.
Last Thanksgiving in Motown a grand total of 57 points were scored. The last time Green Bay played in Motown on Turkey Day
(2007) turned out to be a 37-26 shootout.
In addition Detroit
has allowed more points than any other team in the NFL in 2009 but this total
has actually dropped from the opening figure which to me is very telling. Detroit
is actually 3-1 UNDER this season in “divisional” games where the offense has
averaged LESS than 12 points per game
6-3 COLLEGE FOOTBALL “5 UNIT” EVENTS
FOR THE SEASON
--9/19 Tennessee/Florida
UNDER (53) WINS with ease in a 23-13 national CBS-TV contest (17 point totals
cover)
--10/31 Temple (+7) OUTRIGHT road upset at Navy as Owls
secure Bowl eligibility for first time in THIRTY YEARS (10 point cover)
--11/14 Idaho
(+31’) fails to cover in 63-25 setback at Boise State
--11/21 Maryland/Florida
State UNDER (58’) WINS in a 29-26 contest which was the final home appearance
for the Seminoles’ 26-year defensive coordinator
--12/5 Florida
International (-2) loses 28-21 at home versus rival Florida Atlantic who kept
them out of a postseason Bowl one year ago in an overtime setback
--12/24 SMU/Nevada UNDER
(72’) WINS in a 45-10 final verdict from the Hawaii Bowl
--12/29 Miami-Florida
(-3’) fails to cover in a 20-14 outright loss versus Wisconsin
--NEW YEARS DAY
Northwestern/Auburn OVER (55) WINS in a 38-35 Outback Bowl shootout
--BCS Championship
Texas/Alabama OVER (23) in first-half WINS as 30 combined opening half points
were scored
60-PERCENT FOOTBALL BEST BETS (71-49) FINAL 100 DAYS
“2009 COLLEGE TOTAL OF THE YEAR” WINS SATURDAY (11/21)
All
college football “5 Unit” Best Bets 3-2 for the season (14-6 past
two-plus years). A rare handicapping opportunity for the
totals player Saturday as Florida
State’s DEFENSIVE
coordinator of 26 years participated in his final home appearance. Meanwhile both Florida
State and Maryland were operating with reserve
“redshirt” quarterbacks. Even though the
Seminoles struggling defense failed to step up for their legendary coordinator,
as scoreless third quarter helped UNDER the total come in (29-26 final score)
TODAY’S SPECIAL “5 UNIT”
REDZONE BEST BET TOTAL (Maryland at Florida State UNDER 58’ in a 12 noon
eastern kickoff broadcast regionally by Raycom
Sports): One of the keys to this
selection surrounds the fact that both teams will be going with extremely young
and inexperienced quarterbacks who have been pressed into service. Another factor to consider is that Florida State will be WITHOUT offensive lineman
Rodney Hudson (knee) who is considered as one of the best guards in the entire
country. Not only is Hudson an “all
conference” player, he also was honored as a Sporting News All-American which
means his absence is going to have a negative affect on the Seminoles entire
offensive scheme. But the real big story
and the main reason why this total has reached lofty “5 Unit” status is because
today marks the final home game of the season for the Seminoles who will be
honoring their outgoing DEFENSIVE general.
Of course it has been a very difficult season at Florida State
as their amazing 27-year run of postseason Bowl appearances is currently in
jeopardy. Most of you reading this analysis
are aware that the upper reaches of Florida
State’s administration
have been essentially trying to kick legendary head coach Bobby Bowden out the
door. Despite Bowden stating publicly
that he wants to return in 2010, today just might be his final appearance in
front of the home fans as the Seminoles will be on the road versus the Florida
Gators next week. One thing is certain
and that is today is the FINAL home appearance for retiring 26-YEAR defensive
coordinator Mickey Andrews and I have a feeling his personnel are going to give
him an exceptional sendoff. Even though
it may not be seen on the stat sheets, the Seminoles defense has slowly been
improving in recent weeks especially at the linebacker slot where Nigel Bradham alone has made 39 stops in the past five
contests. Going into the season Florida State had only 3 returning starters on
an extremely young defense which to no great personal shock has struggled. I will admit this is a risky pick since Florida State has actually played above the
total in 8 of 9 games this campaign where the average “combined” amount of
points per contest (62) has been through the roof. Despite that defensive mediocrity I find it
very interesting that the oddsmakers have posted a
total well BELOW the 62 point mark and will gladly follow their lead. As mentioned earlier both teams are going
with young and inexperienced quarterbacks including Florida State
who several weeks ago lost starter Christian Ponder to a season-ending
injury. Last week redshirt freshman E.J.
Manuel made a stunning debut completing 15-of-20 pass opportunities while
garnering “rookie of the week” honors from the Atlantic Coast Conference. But the odds of Manuel having a repeat
performance are slim especially considering that Florida State
is stated earlier is without their best offensive lineman. On the other side of the football Maryland starting
quarterback Chris Turner (193 average pass yards per game last fall) will MISS
his second consecutive contest due to injury which forces redshirt sophomore Jamaar Robinson into his second career start. I have found out that struggling Maryland is actually
considering “burning the redshirt” off a #3 quarterback option which tells me
that Robinson is nothing special. For
those of you who get to watch this contest note that Robinson does have the
ability to scramble but the fact of the matter is Florida State’s defense has
already faced EIGHT different “scrambling” quarterbacks this season and will
not be fazed. There is some good news
for Maryland in
that star running back Da’Rel Scott (forearm
fracture) who has missed the past 5 games is expected to finally return to the
field. Since Scott has already rushed
for 1,000 yards in a single season one would think the Terrapins are going to
have a GROUND oriented attack this afternoon which would take time off the
clock. Just like today’s host, it has
been a dreadful season at Maryland
as they have only a couple of victories.
But I do find it interesting that their defensive coordinator Dan Brown
was a former head coach with Massachusetts
in Division I-AA. My database research
indicates that terrible teams like Maryland
who allow on average at least 31 points per contest and are off consecutive
conference losses have actually played UNDER the total at a 64% clip (105-60)
spanning the past decade. Maryland long term is a
staggering 16-4 UNDER after a game where they committed ZERO turnovers. It is very unusual to have a 26-YEAR
defensive coordinator at the same school participating in that program’s home
finale after announcing his retirement earlier in the campaign. Since this is so rare I look at this
particular contest as the “2009 College Football Total of the Year”
Ranked #1 NFL and #2 College for the entire football season to date among the nation’s
elite handicappers as professionally monitored at (www.sports-watch.com)
92-62 NATIONAL-TV PRIMETIME FOOTBALL SINCE AUGUST
58-PERCENT ALL PREMIUM FOOTBALL
(162-116) FINAL NINETY-SEVEN DAYS
60-PERCENT FOOTBALL BEST BETS (71-49) PAST 100 DAYS
SUNDAY REGULAR SEASON NFL BEST BETS 23-13
--9/20 NFL System Game of the Year Bears (+3) OUTRIGHT
upset of Steelers
--9/20 Best Bet Total Buccaneers/Bills OVER (42) WINS with
ease in 33-20 shootout
--9/13 Lions/Saints UNDER (50) fails miserably in 45-27
opening week contest
--9/13 Redskins/Giants OVER (37) WINS in 23-17 opening week
NFC East marquee battle
--9/27 Raiders (+2) fail 23-3 at home versus Broncos as
initial NFL “5 Unit” move an embarrassment
--9/27 Sunday NIGHT NBC-TV total Colts/Cardinals UNDER
(48’) WINS in a 31-10 contest
--10/4 Buccaneers/Redskins OVER (37) fails in a 16-13 final
verdict
--10/11 “5 Unit” total Bucs/Eagles UN
