OCD Picks - Home of The 2009 Football Handicapping Champion
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ALL INCLUSIVE 2010/2011 FOOTBALL SEASON PACKAGE IS NOW AVAILABLE (check out the right hand portion of this web page)
***Saturday NIGHT premium baseball doubleheader includes BEST BET and an UPSET shocker backed by an 11-4 season angle***
11-8 ALL BEST BETS THIS MONTH
MARQUEE Best Bet monsters (4 Units or higher) "3-1" in July
13-12 SINCE ALL-STAR BREAK
--7/30 Best Bet Brewers (-110) lose 5-0 at Astros
--7/30 A's/White Sox wager wiped away by late pitching change
--7/29 Best Bet Orioles/Royals UNDER (9') fails in a 6-5 extra inning affair
--7/29 Cardinals/Mets OVER (8') fails in a 4-0 final verdict
--7/28 ESPN Best Bet Cardinals/Mets OVER (6') WINS IN FIRST INNING of an 8-7 slugfest
--7/28 Marlins/Giants UNDER (8) fails miserably in game with 19 combined runs scored
--7/27 Best Bet Dodgers (-105) WIN in a 2-0 triumph at Padres as a "14-1" database angle wins again
--7/27 Yankees/Indians OVER (9) fails in a 4-1 verdict
--7/26 Best Bet Indians (+160) fail by ONE run in 3-2 home sertback versus Yankees
--7/25 "4 Unit" Marquee Best Bet Nationals (+130) fails in 8-3 road setback at Brewers
--7/25 ESPN total Cardinals/Cubs OVER (6') WINS in 4-3 contest
--7/24 Underdog Best Bet Pirates (+160) fail as Pittsburgh's starter falls to "6-1" as a prohibitive home underdog
--7/24 Astros (-115) fail in a game where Roy Oswalt was attempting to tie a Houston franchise record for wins
--7/23 UNDERDOG BEST BET Orioles (+120) WIN in a 3-2 home upset of the Twins
--7/23 Underdog Indians (+135) WIN in 3-1 home triumph versus Rays
--7/22 Best Bet Royals/Yankees UNDER (9) fails in a 10-4 contest
--7/21 Nationals/Reds UNDER (7) fails in an 8-5 ESPN shootout (two year 13-0 Under total trend involving Bronson Arroyo goes down)
--7/20 UNDERDOG BEST BET Orioles (+180) WIN in wild 11-10 extra inning triumph versus Rays
--7/19 Underdog Royals (+120) WIN in 5-4 home triumph versus Blue Jays
--7/18 4-Unit MARQUEE Best Bet Phillies/Cubs OVER (7') WINS with ease in an 11-6 ESPN shootout
--7/18 Tigers/Indians UNDER (9') WINS in 7-2 final verdict
--7/17 Pirates (-120) WIN with ease in 12-6 home blowout of Astros
--7/16 PARLAY SWEEP as both Nationals and Twins WIN as small favorites
--7/15 BEST BET Mariners/Angels OVER (8') WINS with ease in an 8-3 contest
--7/15 Brewers (+165) fall one run short of the upset in a 2-1 game at Braves
--"5 UNIT" ALL-STAR GAME BEST BET EVENT (National League WINS)
ALL STAR BEST BET EVENT WINS
The first "5 UNIT" Best Bet of the baseball season WINS as the National League takes the mid-summer classic for the first time since 1996
TONIGHT’S SPECIAL “5 UNIT” REDZONE ALL-STAR GAME BEST BET (National League +110 versus American League in a 8:20 eastern start on FOX-TV): Of course the big sports story is the sudden passing of former Yankees owner George Steinbrenner who built a legendary franchise into a recent success. Despite the Yankees long run of postseason berths it is almost unheard of in this day in age for a manager to make CONSECUTIVE appearances in the All-Star game which annually rewards the skippers of the prior World Series. This is a critical area where the National League has an advantage as Charlie Manuel is directing the senior circuit after gaining invaluable experience of juggling an All-Star roster in 2009. From his first press conference in Anaheim Manuel has repeatedly mentioned how important WINNING what is essentially is an exhibition game really is. In what is an ironic twist WINNING at all costs was the only thing that mattered to the now late George Steinbrenner The mid-summer classic has changed dramatically since 2004 as the triumphant league gets home field advantage in the World Series and we can see by the shaping of the respective rosters that the National League and Manuel in particular are setting themselves up to win in the LATE innings as the senior circuit has a large collection of speed, defense and position flexibility off the bench. One of the most controversial picks was the selection of Atlanta RESERVE Omar Infante who can literally play any position in the field and is a “contact” hitter who can handle the bat and pick up the clutch hit (.367 average with runners in scoring position). Other National League reserves who can play “small ball” off the bench with both speed and bunting ability are Michael Bourne and Chris Young while veteran Scott Rolen provides defensive prowess at the hot corner. Admittedly the American League starting lineup has an edge in the power department, but the National League has plenty of homerun capability (Ryan Howard, Joey Votto, Adrian Gonzalez) coming off the bench. Another area where the National League has an advantage in the latter innings tonight is in the bullpen where 3 different SETUP men can be called on. Even though the Pittsburgh Pirates continue to be the laughingstock of baseball their representative Evan Meek just happens to have a SUB-ONE ERA. One of the most prized pitching possessions that every team seeks annually is effective LEFTHANDERS and
NBA PLAYOFFS WRAP UP A SIZZLING 13-4 IN THE FINAL THREE WEEKS OF COVERAGE (including a "5 UNIT" Best Bet triumph in an epic Finals game-seven)
College basketball premium coverage concludes 14-5 including an UNDEFEATED mark (6-0) with Best Bets
65-59-4 ALL PREMIUM BASEBALL PAST EIGHTY-TWO DAYS OF COVERAGE (small favorites, underdogs, totals)
72-57 PAST SIXTY-THREE DAYS OF COVERAGE OVERALL
NBA PLAYOFFS CONCLUDE 13-4
Including a rare "5 UNIT" Best Bet event in game-seven of the Finals (83-79 final score)
TONIGHT’S SPECIAL “5 UNIT” NBA FINALS REDZONE BEST BET (Celtics +7 at Lakers in a 9:05 eastern tipoff on ABC): The bottom line is that tonight we have a very rare handicapping situation as the NBA Finals have gone the distance just 3 times in the past 25 years. Normally the NBA champion is preordained but this year is different since both the Celtics (2008) and Lakers (2009) are meeting in the Finals after winning the league trophy each of the prior two seasons. In the past 25 years only TWICE have we seen a squad seeded lower that #3 go all the way and win the championship trophy. To make a long story short Boston is in position to defy the odds tonight because they are a VETERAN squad that has already won a championship and are used to high profile setups such as this. I have mentioned several times during the Finals that the Celtics actually won more games on the ROAD than at home during the regular season which is something this successful franchise has seen only twice dating back to 1955. Normally teams that suffer a 22-point blowout loss would have a hard time recovering, but we have already seen the Celtics bounce back after dropping a 29-point decision against Cleveland. Of course the Celtics made the Finals after knocking off two teams (Magic, Cavaliers) who had the two-best NBA regular season records so this team is used to defying the odds. It certainly makes sense to “take” the generous points tonight considering that we have two franchises that have won a grand total of 32 different NBA championship titles and have met 11 different times in the Finals. When handicapping this particular series I have seen a constant pattern of Los Angeles always responding in a “revenge” situation. After losing by a whopping 39-points in the 2008 Championship finale at Boston where local fans ended up throwing rocks at the team bus, it came as no personal shock that the Lakers won the 2010 Finals opener by a wide margin. In addition Los Angeles in their first Finals visit to Boston since that 39-point debacle also responded in game-three by pulling off an underdog outright upset. In a do-or-die situation back on Tuesday, the Lakers once again responded to adversity by literally outhustling their opponent. But the fact of the matter is that the Lakers are NOT in a pure “revenge” setup this evening even though Phil Jackson and Kobe Bryant still have not defeated Boston in a championship series. Lakers coach Jackson has 10 different NBA title rings but he has NEVER coached a game-seven situation like this in the Finals which means it is no given he will be successful. Following the 2008 Championship series there were rumors that Jackson was actually outcoached by his counterpart Doc Rivers who just like the “zen master” has shown the ability to make ADJUSTMENTS on the fly which is critical to postseason success. Certainly Boston will have plenty of MOTIVATION after hearing for the better part of two days that they have no chance a winning the title on the highway now that big man Kendrick Perkins is injured and will not play in game-seven. I found a postgame comment by Boston veteran Paul Pierce very telling as he said quote “we know how to win when guys go down”. Boston essentially used most of their collective energy in game-five in what they felt was a must-win situation in their home finale. On Tuesday evening it was the Lakers who wanted the game more and played with much more energy so I for one refuse to overreact to the 22-point blowout. One may want to call this a “law of averages” pick as the entire 2010 NBA playoffs have essentially been blowouts including a handful of 4-0 sweeps. We have had one “game seven” situation in this year’s playoffs which turned into an Atlanta blowout of a Milwaukee contingent that was playing without their best 2 performers. So far in the 2010 Finals we have NOT seen one single contest go down to the final minutes when both coaches are put under the gun, but I am expecting that to chance this evening. One of the more amazing statistics in this postseason is that the straight-up winner of Boston games have gone UNDEFEATED where it counts (23-0 ATS). Even though it has been 32 years since a road team won an NBA Finals “game seven”, the Celtics to a man are confident they can pull it off especially since the starters took it upon themselves to handle the responsibility of Tuesday’s debacle, instead of merely pointing fingers. Essentially this championship series has featured two teams that are even as both benches have responded while every start player has had at least one solid performance. While there is no doubt that the Lakers have the best player on the floor in Kobe Bryant, tonight’s underdog plays better as a “team”. We have dueling setups as Phil Jackson coached teams have never lost (47-0) when winning game-one of a playoff series, but Boston has won the title all 11 times they have grabbed a 3-2 edge in the Finals. My research indicates that the Lakers are a horrible 1-6 all-time in the Finals when down “2-3” in the best-of-seven game set. There are rumors that this may be the final game ever coached by the legendary Phil Jackson, but there also is a possibility that his is the swansong for Doc Rivers in Boston. After tonight Rivers is losing his defensive architect as a prized assistant will move on to be head coach in Chicago. One could make a strong argument that tonight is the final chance for Boston’s corp group of veterans (Garnett, Allen, Pierce, Wallace) who are getting too old to both stay healthy and perform at this high level. I can tell you that the Boston “big three” are UNDEFEATED in playoff series when all are healthy. Turning to the database here is a 72-PERCENT SYSTEM (25-10 past five years) which plays ON teams like Boston after trailing the previous game by 15+ points at halftime, off a contest where less than 161 combined points were put on the scoreboard. In the past two years Boston is UNDEFEATED where it counts (8-0 ATS) when revenging a road loss against an opponent. Tonight marks the 5th time that the Celtics and Lakers have met in a championship “game seven” situation which sets us up for an absolute classic
NCAA CHAMPIONSHIP BEST BET WIN
Decided by TWO point margin
TONIGHT'S "4 UNIT" REDZONE COLLEGE BEST BET (
