VACATION:  Premium/Free service resumes Monday July 7^th by 5:00 eastern. The countdown for 2008/2009 football continues after the past three years yield enormous profit (scroll down page for details)

 

17-10-1 PREMIUM SERVICE BASEBALL PAST TWO WEEKS (60-55 since day two of season with mainly underdogs and totals)

 

106-95-5 ALL PREMIUM/FREE ACTION PAST FIFTY-SEVEN DAYS

 

All NBA premium wagers for the calendar year 2008 finish just below the .500 mark (66-68).  All basketball Best Bets finish 18-15 in the final two months of hardwood play

 

Only twelve 4-Unit Best Bet monsters since the beginning of April (including a huge underdog triumph on 6/6)

AMERICAN LEAGUE UPSET OF THE YEAR (Seattle snaps Boston’s 13-game home winning streak in an 8-0 shocker)

TONIGHT'S "4 UNIT" REDZONE BEST BET (Mariners +145 at Red Sox in a 7:05 eastern start-------Hernandez versus Colon):  Due to what I regard as the "perfect storm" of circumstances coming together at the same time, this is my American League Upset of the Year.  Most of you reading this analysis segment most likely remember the postgame tirade by Chicago White Sox manager Ozzie Guillen last Sunday.  Ever since that outburst, the White Sox are UNDEFEATED.  The Seattle Mariners back on Wednesday also hit rock bottom as they ended up losing a 3-game series at home against the divisional rival Angels, which placed them 15' games behind in the American League West race.  The bottom line is that Seattle has baseball's worst overall record even though their collective payroll ($117 million) is among the highest in the game.  Prior to Wednesday's game, I found out that Mariners team president Chuck Armstrong ripped into the various members of the coaching staff.  After the game, manager John McLaren went into a press conference tirade that was laced with expletives.  While McLaren was suffering a "meltdown" that got national attention, Seattle General Manager Bill Bavasi actually CLOSED off access to a postgame meal, and forced all players to sit in front of their lockers and explain to the media why they are playing so poorly.  It is almost unheard of for a team to do this at the major league level, but from what I have been able to find out, this may have been a stroke of genius by the Seattle General Manager.  Normally, Mariner players disperse after a game and do not spend any time collectively together in the clubhouse, so this move on Wednesday actually forced personell to communicate with one another.  Even though many of the Seattle players were very upset with this drastic action, odds are that they finally got a wake-up call that was desperately needed.  What is interesting to note is that the Mariners just set a franchise record for futility last month (8-20) which was the most setbacks the Pacific Northwest has ever seen in May.  Despite that disastrous performance, they did manage to WIN a series at home against none other than the Boston Red Sox!  One of the victories in that series was Felix Hernandez pitching a gem against Bartolo Colon, which just happens to be the mound assignments for this evening.  According to Baseball Prospectus which crunches numbers through numerous computer models, they had forecast Felix Hernandez as the American League CY YOUNG award winner for 2008.  Part of the reasoning was that "king felix" no longer had the pressure of being the #1 option, after the Mariners acquired new staff ace Erik Bedard in the offseason.  Until he beat the Red Sox at Safeco Field, Hernandez went the entire month of May WITHOUT picking up s single victory, which makes him in my mind severely "undervalued".  I did some digging and found out that that last time Felix Hernandez pitched at Fenway Park, he twirled one of the best games of his entire career in what turned out to be a ONE HIT gem.  In that masterpiece at Boston one year ago, Hernandez threw a grand total of just 111 pitches, facing just TWO batters above the minimum.  With Felix Hernandez finally coming off a quality outing, there is a chance that Brandon Morrow will be able to "seal the deal" out of the bullpen in the very late innings.  While Mariners closer J.J. Putz is currently struggling out of that bullpen, it is worth noting that Morrow has allowed only ONE run in the past fifteen games, while STRIKING OUT 8 of the past 16 batters he has faced.  Even though the Mariners are reeling, they actually have had some stellar recent offensive performances led by secondbaseman Jose Lopez who in the past five outings has had 4 different MULTI-HIT efforts, moving him into the Top-10 of the American League batting race.  All-Star Ichiro Suzuki current ranks #2 in the American League with 25 STEALS.  I will admit that Boston has won 13 in a row in front of the home fans, but they are in a classic "letdown" situation.  The Red Sox just made a huge statement against a Tampa Bay team that came to Fenway Park early this week in the AL East's top spot.  Following yesterday's fight-filled brawl, Boston emphatically let the young Rays know who really is the boss.  Even though Boston won yet again yesterday, the INJURY bug reared its ugly head once again to a team that last weekend lost their leading homerun and RBI man (David Ortiz) for at least one month with a wrist injury.  Last night the sizzling hot Manny Ramirez (14 RBI past nine games) had to exit early with a hamstring injury.  Ever since swatting career homer #500, Ramirez has been the hottest stick and biggest run producer in the entire Boston batting order.  In my opinion the top American League rookie so far has been Jacoby Ellsbury who out of the leadoff spot is batting above the .280 mark.  Ellsbury is one of the very few Boston players in recent memory to have pure SPEED, entering the week with a grand total of 26 stolen bases.  Last night while attempting to make a diving catch in the outfield, Ellsbury suffered a strained wrist, which is going to force him to underdog an MRI exam.  The bottom line is that there is a chance Boston this evening will be minus 3 stellar offensive players, which is going to put extra pressure on the pitching staff to perform.  I will admit that former Cy-Young award winner Bartolo Colon is undefeated ever since getting recalled from the minors, but the fact of the matter is he has spent most of the past two seasons battling major injuries, which is why the Angels organization finally threw in the towel and let him go.  There is also an "intangible" that actually deals with the NBA Finals, as the beloved Celtics last night won the opener.  One could make a strong argument that the collective mindset of Boston right now is on basketball, opening the door to a possible losing baseball weekend for the Red Sox who are facing an opponent that they really do not respect.  No matter what organization the well-traveled Bartolo Colon has pitched for in the past decade, his teams have gone an awful 15-27 when he has been cast as a home chalk near tonight's price range.  My database research indicates that light-hitting American League teams like Seattle who have a combined batting average of below the .256 mark, have actually WON at a solid 60-PERCENT clip the past five years (149-108), as long as we are in the month of JUNE.  Check all calendars!

 

All BEST BET wagers the past thirty-eight weeks (170-132) near FORTY games above the .500 mark. 

 

23-27 past fifty BASEBALL Best Bets

25-26 all NBA Playoff premium releases in final forty-two days of hardwood action

60-55 all premium baseball last eighty-three days of selections

 

All premium wagers for the entire month of April (43-29) end up successfully covering the spread 60% of the time.

 

84-73 BEST BETS LONG TERM (54-PERCENT past 133 days)

--6/23 Angels/Nationals OVER (7’) fails in 3-2 final verdict (loss)

--6/22 Nationals (+105) fail 5-3 at home versus Rangers (loss)

--6/21 Diamondbacks (+110) fail in an ugly 6-1 setback at Twins (loss)

--6/20 Nationals (+105) pull off a 4-3 home upset versus Rangers (WIN)

--6/19 Rockies (-125) continue interleague dominance with 6-3 home win versus Indians (WIN)

--6/18 Royals (+115) upset the Cardinals 3-2 in St. Louis (WIN)

--6/17 Lakers (+5) fails to cover but Lakers/Celtics fly way OVER (191) in game six of the NBA Finals (loss, WIN)

--6/16 Braves/Rockies OVER (9’) involving a 14-3 “two year” angle fails in a 7-1 final verdict (loss)

--6/15 Reds (+135) embarrassed on TBS-TV in a 9-0 home thrashing versus Red Sox (loss)

--6/14 Rockies (+170) pull off 2-0 upset at White Sox (WIN)

--6/13 Giants (+115) drop a 5-1 home decision against Bay Area rival Athletics (loss)

--6/12 Rangers/Royals UNDER (10) barely misses in a 6-5 final verdict (loss)

--6/12 Celtics/Lakers OVER (191) misses in game with 188 combined points scored (loss)

--6/11 Twins/Indians OVER (9’) with ease in an 8-5 slugfest (WIN)

--6/10 Nationals (+140) pull of 7-6 upset at Pirates (WIN)

--6/9 Indians (-105) grab an early EIGHT run lead and win an ESPN 8-2 romp at Tigers (WIN)

--6/8 Lakers/Celtics UNDER (191’) fails in a 108-102 final verdict as Los Angeles scores 41 points in the final quarter (loss)

--6/7 Mariners (+160) lose at Boston (loss)

--6/6 Mariners (+145) pull off a huge 8-0 upset and snapped Boston’s 13-game home winning streak (WIN)

--6/5 Marlins/Braves UNDER (9’) fails in a 7-5 final verdict

--6/4 rare “5 UNIT” event Rays (+1’/-140) fail to be competitive in rare ESPN appearance as they drop 5-1 contest at Red Sox (loss)

--6/3 Royals (+110) fail to convert a “7-0 season situation” at White Sox (loss)

--6/2 Angels/Mariners OVER (8) fails in a 4-2 final verdict (loss)

--6/1 Marlins (+130) blow early 5-1 advantage and lose at Phillies (loss)

--5/31 Red Wings/Penguins OVER (5) fails in game four of the Stanley Cup Finals which combined for just 3 goals (loss)

--5/30 Reds/Braves OVER (9) fails in a 3-2 contest (loss)

--5/29 “Run Line” Royals (-1’/+175) loses in 5-1 final verdict (loss)

--5/28 rare “5 UNIT’ event as Penguins (-115) SCORE FIRST goal in game three of the NHL Stanley Cup Finals (WIN)

--5/28 Athletics (-125) fail by ONE run in 2-1 home setback to Blue Jays (loss)

--5/27 Lakers/Spurs OVER (192’) backed by two-year undefeated spread angle fails in 93-91 final verdict (loss)

--5/26 Royals/Blue Jays OVER (8) covers in 7-2 final verdict (WIN)

--5/25 Brewers/Nationals OVER (9) cashed in the SIXTH inning of a 7-6 slugfest (WIN)

--5/24 Giants (+115) were rained out at Marlins

--5/23 Athletics (-130) grab early “7-0” lead and rout the Red Sox (WIN)

--5/22 Pistons (+4’) OUTRIGHT 103-97 at Celtics in game two of the Eastern Conference Finals (WIN)

--5/21 Diamondbacks/Marlins OVER (8) fails in a 3-1 contest (loss)

--5/20 Pistons/Celtics OVER (173’) fails in a 88-79 final verdict (loss)

--5/19 Astros (+115) suffer horrible 7-2 home loss versus Cubs as 81% system goes by the boards (loss)

--5/18 Rays (-105) blow a 4-2 eighth inning lead and lose by one run margin at Cardinals (loss)

--5/17 Padres/Mariners OVER (8) barely misses in 4-2 contest (loss)

--5/16 Athletics/Braves OVER (8’) fails in a 3-2 final verdict (loss)

--5/15 Rockies (+145) fail in an 8-5 setback at Diamondbacks (loss)

--5/14 Padres/Cubs OVER (8) covers with ease in an 8-5 slugfest (WIN)

--5/13 Nationals (+180) come up short in 6-3 setback at Mets (loss)

--5/12 Celtics (+2) lose 87-77 at Cavaliers in a fourth quarter meltdown (loss)

--5/11 Royals (-135) pull off 4-0 SHUTOUT home triumph versus Orioles (WIN)

--5/10 Celtics (+2) miserable 108-84 setback at Cavaliers (loss)

--5/9  Jazz (-2’) cover the first half line as they led the Lakers by NINE points at the break (WIN)

--5/8  Rangers/Mariners OVER (8’) fails in a 5-0 final verdict (loss)

--5/7  Jazz (+7) lose by TEN point margin at Lakers (loss)

--5/6  underdog Rays (+125) pull off 5-4 upset at Blue Jays (WIN)

--5/5  Red Sox/Tigers OVER (9) pushes in 6-3 final verdict (push)

--5/4  Orioles/Angels OVER (9) covers in high scoring 6-5 affair (WIN)

--5/4  Hawks (+14’) smashed by an ugly 34 point count in game seven at Celtics (loss)

--5/3  Tigers/Twins OVER (9) fails in a 4-1 verdict (loss)

--5/2  Hawks (+8’) OUTRIGHT upset of Celtics (WIN)

--5/1  Mariners (+130) drop a 3-2 heartbreaker at Indians in 11 innings (loss)

--4/30 Mariners/Indians OVER (8’) covers with ease in 8-3 final verdict (WIN)

--4/29 Brewers/Cubs OVER (8’) covers with ease in 10-7 slugfest (WIN)

--4/28 Athletics (+110) BLOWOUT road triumph 14-2 at Angels (WIN)

--4/27 Suns (-3’) BLOWOUT 105-86 home triumph versus Spurs (WIN)

--4/26 Hawks (+9) OUTRIGHT upset of Celtics 102-93 in first playoff home game in NINE years (WIN)

--4/25 Cubs/Nationals OVER (9) barely misses in 5-3 final verdict (loss)

--4/24 Diamondbacks/Dodgers OVER (8’) wins in a game with TEN combined runs scored (WIN)

--4/23 Giants (+130) pulls off UPSET in extra-inning triumph at Padres (WIN)

--4/22 Nationals (+200) pulls off stunning 6-0 UPSET triumph at Braves (WIN)

--4/21 Nationals/Braves OVER (9) wins in 7-3 final verdict (WIN)

--4/21 Wizards (+2) loses an ugly 30-point decision at Cavaliers (loss)

--4/20 Royals/Athletics UNDER (8’) wins in 7-1 final verdict (WIN)

--4/20 Hawks (+15) lose 104-81 at Celtics (loss)

--4/19 Mavericks/Hornets UNDER (192’) barely missed in game with 196 combined points scored (loss)

--4/18 Twins (+105) suffer a shutout home loss against Indians (loss)

--4/17 Royals/Angels UNDER (9’) COVERS in a 5-3 final verdict (WIN)

--4/16 Timberwolves (-7) COVER their home finale 110-101 in overtime versus Bucks (WIN)

--4/15 Grizzlies/Blazers UNDER (206) COVERS in 112-91 final verdict (WIN)

--4/14 Cavaliers (+5) OUTRIGHT at Sixers (WIN)

--4/14 Diamondbacks/Giants UNDER (8) barely loses in 5-4 final verdict (loss)

--4/13 Yankees (+130) drop 8-5 decision at Red Sox (loss)

--4/12 Marlins/Astros UNDER (10) WINS in 5-0 final verdict (WIN)

--4/11 Mariners (-115) WIN at home 8-5 in first season encounter with rival Angels (WIN)

--4/10 Clippers (+15) drop a 28-point decision versus Lakers in their home finale (loss)

--4/9  Dodgers (-105) fail by ONE run margin at Diamondbacks (loss)

--4/8  Mariners/Rays OVER (8’) COVERS in 6-5 shootout (WIN)

--4/7  Indians/Angels OVER (8’) COVERS in 6-4 final verdict (WIN)

--4/6  Knicks (+7’) OUTRIGHT at home in 100-90 upset versus Magic (WIN)

--4/5  Kansas (+4) OUTRIGHT by 18 point margin in upset of North Carolina in the NCAA Final Four (WIN)

--4/4  Mavericks (+5’) COVER in 112-108 ESPN shootout at Lakers (WIN)

--4/3  Massachusetts/Ohio State OVER (148) COVERS by 29 points in an NIT Championship 92-85 shootout (WIN)

--4/3  Massachusetts (+3’) just comes up short in a SEVEN point setback (loss)

--4/2  Mavericks (-3) COVERS in 25-point romp of Warriors (WIN)

--4/1  Massachusetts (+4’) OUTRIGHT 78-66 upset over Florida (WIN)

--3/31 Reds (-105) lose home opener 4-2 versus Diamondbacks (loss)

--3/31 Astros (+140) loses 4-0 at Padres (loss)

--3/30 Davidson (+9’) nearly outright in 59-57 nailbiter with Kansas (WIN)

--3/30 Davidson/Kansas UNDER (147) wins by 31 POINT margin in clash with 116 combined points scored (WIN)

--3/30 Braves/Nationals OVER (8’) misses in 3-2 contest (loss)

--3/29 Louisville (+6) loses 83-73 decision to North Carolina (loss)

--3/29 Grizzlies (+2’) lose 110-97 at the Clippers (loss)

--3/28 Davidson (+5’) OUTRIGHT in 73-56 romp of Wisconsin

--3/27 Washington State (+9) fails to cover in 68-47 setback at North Carolina (loss)

--3/26 Hornets/Cavaliers UNDER (194) barely misses in 100-99 final verdict (loss)

--3/25 Florida/Arizona State UNDER (132’) WINS in game with 127 combined points scored (WIN)

--3/24 Rockets (-11) win by EIGHT point margin as Rick Adelman picks up coaching win #800 versus Sacramento franchise that fired him (loss)

--3/23 Western Kentucky (-5) COVERS in 72-63 triumph versus San Diego (WIN)

--3/23 Davidson (+5) OUTRIGHT upset of Georgetown (WIN)

--3/22 Kansas State (+5) loses 72-55 versus Wisconsin in Michael Beasley’s farewell (loss)

--3/22 Hornets (-1) COVERS with ease 113-106 versus Celtics (WIN)

--3/21 Western Kentucky (+4) OUTRIGHT versus Drake (WIN)

--3/21 Magic (-5’) COVERS with ease in 18-point romp of Sixers (WIN)

--3/20 Cornell (+15) suffers 24-point setback versus Stanford (loss)

--3/20 Belmont (+20’) ONE point away from stunning upset of Duke (WIN)

--3/19 Virginia Commonwealth (-5’) loses outright 80-77 at home versus Alabama-Birmingham (loss)

--3/19 Heat/Raptors OVER (199) loses in 96-54 final verdict (loss)

--3/18 Coppin State/Mount Saint Marys UNDER (126) barely misses in game with 129 combined points scored (loss)

--3/18 Celtics/Rockets UNDER (183) COVERS with ease in game with 168 combined points scored (WIN)

--3/17 Hawks/Wizards OVER (199’) covers in 105-96 final verdict (WIN)

--3/16 Texas/Kansas UNDER (138) fails in 84-74 Big 12 Championship shootout (loss)

--3/15 Morgan State (-5’) loses outright against a sub .500 opponent in Mid-Eastern Conference championship (loss)

--3/14 Miami-Ohio (+3’) COVERS in 49-47 nailbiter versus Kent State (WIN)

--3/14 USC/UCLA Under (128) COVERS in low scoring 57-54 affair (WIN)

--3/13 Vanderbilt (-8’) COVERS in 93-82 triumph versus Auburn (WIN)

--3/13 Arizona State/Southern California UNDER (125) COVERS in 59-55 final verdict (WIN)

--3/13 Arizona/Stanford UNDER (130’) fails in 75-64 contest (loss)

--3/12 Hawks (+5) lose by EIGHT point margin at home versus Rockets (loss)

--3/11 Princeton (-3) and their five seniors smashed 60-47 in finale (loss)

--3/10 Heat (+2) cover at home against the Clippers in a game decided by ONE point margin (WIN)

--3/9  New Orleans (+13) COVERS wire-to-wire in 81-77 final verdict against South Alabama (WIN)

--3/8  Delaware (+3) suffers 82-59 setback (loss)

--3/8  Winthrop/NC Asheville UNDER (121) covers in game with 114 combined points scored (WIN)

--3/7  Wizards (+6’) OUTRIGHT at Raptors (WIN)

--3/6  Georgia Tech (+3) OUTRIGHT 80-75 versus Clemson in home finale (WIN)

--3/5  Georgia (+3) OUTRIGHT upset at Auburn (WIN)

--3/5  Wizards (+1’) smoked at home in 122-92 setback versus Magic as “22-3” five-year system fails (loss)

--3/4  Kansas State (-16’) wins straight-up by 6-point margin in home finale and fails to cover for first time all season as double-digit favorite (loss)

--3/4  Suns/Blazers UNDER (208’) COVERS by 19’ point margin in a 97-92 final verdict (WIN)

--3/3  Santa Clara/Gonzaga UNDER (128) misses in 88-54 contest despite Santa Clara scoring only 19 first-half points (loss)

--3/2  Temple/St. Josephs OVER (144’) misses badly in 57-56 final verdict (loss)

--3/1  Texas Tech (+5’) OUTRIGHT upset versus Texas (WIN)

--3/1  Cornell (-13’) covered with ease in 33-POINT romp of Harvard to clinch Ivy League title (WIN)

--2/29 Princeton (+14’) covers in a 64-57 final verdict at Brown (WIN)

--2/28 Spurs (-4’) win straight-up 97-94 at home versus Mavericks (loss)

--2/27 Pittsburgh (-11) fails to cover in a SIX point straight up home triumph versus Cincinnati (loss)

--2/26 Northern Illinois (+8) COVERS in the first game following a tragic on-campus shooting (56-49 final score versus Western Michigan) (WIN)

--2/25 Texas/Kansas State UNDER (147) WINS in low scoring 74-65 ESPN Big Monday affair (WIN)

--2/24 Dayton (+5) fails to cover by ONE point in 57-51 home setback versus Xavier (loss)

--2/23 Virginia Commonwealth (+2) OUTRIGHT at Akron 57-52 in a wire-to-wire spread triumph (WIN)

--2/23 George Mason (+1’) blows a 15-point first half advantage and loses 69-57 at Ohio (loss)

--2/22 Davidson (-3’) covers with ease in 60-47 romp at Winthrop (WIN)

--2/21 Western Kentucky (-6) loses 69-64 at home versus South Alabama (loss)

--2/20 Florida International (+4’) OUTRIGHT at Florida-Atlantic as they snap 10-game road losing streak (WIN)

--2/19 Baylor (+4) covers in OT tussle at Oklahoma which was decided by ONE point (WIN)

--2/18 Tennessee State (-1) WINS in home finale versus conference leading Austin Peay 73-69 (WIN)