Thursday NATIONAL-TV BEST BET (Brewers/Cubs) starts shortly after 8:00 eastern on the MLB Network

 

7-4 PREMIUM wagers past seven days of coverage (5-3 BEST BETS)

 

50-45 premium baseball past seventy-five days of coverage (high ranking for the entire season to date as professionally monitored by www.sports-watch.com)

 

As you can see below Best Bets SWEPT just prior to a personal vacation.  In my return last night the ESPN telecast was backed by a pair of two-year UNDEFEATED database angles a combined 14-0 but the San Francisco Giants ended up losing a ONE run verdict in EXTRA INNINGS (2-1 final score)

 

TONIGHT’S “4 UNIT” REDZONE BEST BET (Giants +135 at Cardinals in a 8:15 eastern start on ESPN----------Cain versus Wainwright):  Tonight’s ESPN telecast is rather large for one of the participants since San Francisco rarely has a shot to be seen nationally across the country.  The last time we all got to see the Giants on a semi-regular basis was when a guy named Barry Bonds was the cleanup hitter.  Even though they no longer have a true power stick in the middle of the lineup, a solid pitching staff currently has San Francisco in the top spot among all National League entrants battling for a Wild Card playoff berth.  Even though the offense is not overwhelming, San Francisco as a team has a solid batting average (.282) on their current tem-game road trip.  Tonight we all get to see infielder Pablo Sandoval who has hit safely in 20 of the past 22 games while sporting an overall batting average (.338) that is near the top of the entire National League.  While Sandoval is making a case for entrance on the All-Star roster, Giants cleanup hitter Bengie Molina has come alive the past couple of nights swatting FIVE overall hits.  Molina’s 45 total RBI very quietly leads all of baseball among catchers and he just happens to also have a leaguewide third-ranking with 14 doubles.  Speaking of doubles veteran shortstop Edgar Renteria is currently riding his longest hitting streak (6) since putting on a Giants uniform while swatting 5 “two baggers” along the way plus driving in 9 runners.  After a sluggish start Renteria during the entire month of June (.293) came alive in the batting average department.  Speaking of coming alive that is exactly what veteran outfielder Aaron Rowand has done at the plate (.336 batting average) ever since being moved to the top of the lineup.  Even though St. Louis has one of their best pitchers on the mound tonight, my research indicates that Rowand in his career has crushed Adam Wainwright to the tune of a massive .353 batting average.  It also is worth mentioning that the career numbers Wainwright has put up against the Giants (0-2. 5.14 ERA) are very poor.  This evening Wainwright will have to deal with a plethora of hot San Francisco batters including veteran outfielder Randy Winn who has three different “multi hit” efforts during a current 4-game hitting streak.  On the mound for the visitors this evening will be Matt Cain who is attempting for a third time to win game #10 which would make him one of only a pair of National League hurlers to reach that plateau.  I will admit that Cain has struggled recently to reach double-digits in victories but he had been 7-0 with a 1.87 ERA in nine starts between losses.  Even though Cain lost his most recent trip to the mound, he did rack up NINE different STRIKEOUT victims in what was another powerful performance.  Tonight Cain will be dealing with a struggling St. Louis offense whose collective batting average in the past week (.198) has been pitiful which is one of the main reasons the team is currently mired in a 1-6 slide.  Despite a pair of Albert Pujols homers, the Cardinals manged to lose last night both on the scoreboard and in the INJURY department.  Newly acquired infielder Mark DeRosa had to exit early with a wrist injury that has put his immediate status in doubt.  Meanwhile St. Louis outfielder Colby Rasmus (2-for-25 slump) is dealing with a possible hernia.  All Star caliber catcher Yadier Molina has missed some recent Cardinal games due to a thigh problem.  According to my database research this is a spectacular percentage wager as San Francisco is 9-3 for the entire season to date against opponents with a solid bullpen who has converted at least 75% of their save opportunities.  The Giants have been WINNERS in 11 of the 15 starts made by Matt Cain while San Francisco has also WON 12 of the most recent 17 tussles with the Cardinals in this series.  On the flipside St. Louis has had problems this year (3-9) against opposition from the National League West.  My research has even uncovered a dynamite “umpire” angle for this evening as the ROAD teams have done remarkably well (10-4) when Bob Davidson has been calling the balls and strikes.  I will wrap up this analysis with a pair of UNDEFEATED database angles beginning with the fact that St. Louis is 0-7 this season when revenging consecutive home losses against an opponent.  In the past two years San Francisco is an unscathed 7-0 after batting .333 or better at the plate in a three-game span.  In my mind this is the ESPN “statistical lock of the year”

 

Wednesday’s FREE wager on the Texas Rangers (-105) WINS in what turned out to be a Premium/Free sweep

 

Premium baseball prior to personal vacation (6/24) pulls off BEST BET SWEEP including a 10-6 Pittsburgh Pirates victory

 

PART ONE OF TONIGHT’S “3 UNIT” REDZONE BEST BET DOUBLEHEADER (Pirates -130 at home versus Indians in a 7:05 eastern start--------Pavano versus Duke):  Regular clients know that the Pirates burned me severely last night, but the setback was not as bad as one would think.  For some reason Pittsburgh was shutout by rookie David Huff and entered the final inning trailing by a 5-0 count.  Rather than going away easily, the Pirates promptly rallied for 4 runs in the bottom of the ninth inning and actually ended the contest with the BASES LOADED.  The ninth inning last night just showed how poorly the Indians bullpen has been performing as in the past week alone the collective ERA of the Cleveland “stoppers” (8.78) has been a complete disaster.  Last night new Tribe closer Kerry Wood nearly blew his third save opportunity since Saturday and literally wiggled his way off the hook.  Odds are the Cleveland bullpen will be busy yet again this evening because starting pitcher Carl Pavano is having his share of problems.  Pavano nailed the Yankees on a very large free-agent contract and literally was injured for three full seasons.  So far in 2009 Pavano has actually been healthy enough to make the mound for every assignment but back in April (9.50 ERA) was not all that effective.  Once that calendar turned to May the veteran finally got his act together and posted a stirling 6-1 record.  But the fact of that matter is that Pavano is in another tailspin having allowed a combined 15 runs in the last pair of trips to the mound.  He will be going up against Zach Duke who has been Pittsburgh’s most consistent starter and has a decent 3.86 lifetime ERA when facing the Tribe.  I mentioned in last night’s analysis that Pittsburgh has not hosted Cleveland since way back in 2003 and has lobbied major league baseball to make them a “geographic rival” since the Tribe are located only 134 miles away.  For some reason the Indians have not been excited enough to face the Pirates on an annual basis which is the main reason why the major leaguer office has not come through with Pittsburgh’s request.  The bottom line is that Pittsburgh is only getting to host Cleveland again in Interleague play only because this is a matchup of squads from the Central Division.  Prior to last night, the Pirates were 7-1 at HOME against the Indians since last facing them in 2003 and so far in the month of June the Bucs (5-2) are well above the .500 mark when playing at PNC Park.  I mentioned that last night Cleveland activated All Star outfielder Grady Sizemore from the disabled list and he helped the Tribe both at the plate and on defense making a great play in centerfield.  However Pittsburgh’s rookie centerfielder Andrew McCutchen ended up extending his hitting streak to ELEVEN consecutive contests last night by knocking in a run and also stealing a base.  Going into last night Pittsburgh was an outstanding 8-1 for the entire season when drawing a large home crowd of more than 20-thousand and that most likely will be the case again tonight with a “geographic rival” making a rare visit.  Despite last night’s victory Cleveland is a horrible 6-14 long term against the National League Central division.  Cleveland is also weak 8-21 this campaign when coming off a victory.  Last night Pittsburgh fell to an awful 7-34 when failing to score more than 4 runs at the plate, but on this Wednesday they face a struggling opposing starting pitcher and a squad with an ailing bullpen.  Here is an approaching 70-PERCENT SYSTEM (118-59 past five years with a money line between +125/-125) which actually goes AGAINST road teams like Cleveland coming off a close victory of 2-or-less runs, against an opponent who is off consecutive CLOSE defeats of 2-or-less runs in margin.  Basically last night’s 4-run rally by the Pirates in the bottom of the ninth inning set up the aforementioned 70% system

 

Premium baseball prior to personal vacation (6/24) pulls off BEST BET SWEEP including a high scoring nationally televised 8-4 contest in Atlanta

 

PART TWO OF TONIGHT’S “3 UNIT” REDZONE BEST BET DOUBLEHEADER (Yankees at Braves OVER 9 in a 7:10 eastern start broadcast on ESPN2-TV-------------Chamberlain versus Kawakami):  One of the keys to this pick actually has to do with tomorrow’s projected pitching matchup featuring veterans Andy Pettitte and Derek Lowe.  Odds are that tomorrow’s game will be a lot lower scoring than this evening where we actually have “value” in the posted total.  There has been non-stop coverage by the New York media urging the Yankees to move Joba Chamberlain to the bullpen where his array of pitches would be much more effective.  To give you an idea how high scoring Chamberlain’s games are as a starter, consider that the most recent three posted totals (10, 10’ 9’ runs) have been extremely high.  The reason why tonight’s posted spot is relatively low has to do in part with the Yankees struggling offense which was held to only 4 hits in a Tuesday setback.  In the past six outings the Yankee offense has scored ONLY a combined 13 runs so the oddsmakers had no choice but to deflate this particular spot.  One of the many struggling Yankees is star Alex Rodriguez whose batting average has fallen to its lowest level (.207) since he was a mere 19 years old.  A-Rod is now battling both age, fatigue and the much publicized use of steroids.  I just have a feeling he will be picked up at the plate tonight by Mark Teixeira who used to play with the Braves and also attended Georgia Tech in the city of Atlanta.  Last night Teixeira took an “oh fer” at the plate which makes him a bit under valued.  Another reason why tonight’s posted total has been kept in check has to do with the fact that Atlanta pitchers have recorded consecutive SHUTOUTS for the first time in FOUR years.  Of course the Braves used to have one of the best pitching staffs in the game, but the fact of the matter is that the 2009 group has given up the most homeruns in the entire National League.  On Monday the Braves went with Javier Vazquez who leads the senior circuit in strikeouts.  Last night Atlanta started Tommy Hanson who is the most “hyped” minor league call up of the season, but this evening the Braves do NOT have a marquee hurler on the mound.  I will admit that Atlanta offensively has had problems producing runs but All Star catcher Brian McCann is hitting an enormous .529 at the dish (3 HR, 10 RBI) during INTERLEAGUE play.  After a slow start, free-agent outfielder Garret Anderson is starting to produce in a Braves uniform.  The last three times Kenshin Kawakami has taken the mound, Atlanta’s offense has supported him with a combined NINETEEN runs of support.  My research indicates that Atlanta manager Bobby Cox who took the reigns way back in 1991 is 81-63 OVER/HOME when facing an opposing starting pitcher who has control problems issuing more than 2.75 WALKS per assignment.  Also during Cox’s long tenure in Atlanta, his Braves have gone 76-50 OVER/HOME following a game that featured a combined 4-or-less total runs

 

5-3 past eight BEST BETS including a marquee “5 Unit” loss on 6/23 as the Pittsburgh Pirates (5-4 setback) nearly rallied from a 5-0 deficit in the bottom of the ninth inning leaving the BASES LOADED

 

TONIGHT’S SPECIAL “5 UNIT” REDZONE BEST BET (Pirates -105 at home versus Indians in a 7:05 eastern start-------Huff versus Snell):  On the face of it tonight’s battle between a pair of last place teams does not seem all that important, but it just happens to be VITAL for a Pittsburgh organization that has been waiting since 2003 to host an opponent who geographically is just 134 miles away.  Most of you reading this analysis segment are most likely aware how Pittsburgh owns Cleveland in an NFL geographic rivalry where the squad from the Steel City has ripped off ELEVEN consecutive victories.  This is actually a positive time for the Pittsburgh sports community as both the NFL Steelers and NHL Penguins have walked away with national titles in the calendar year 2009.  But the prosperity has yet to reach baseball’s Pirates who come into tonight’s game 7’ games out of the National League Central Division lead.  The last time Pittsburgh’s baseball team reached the playoffs was way back in 1992 when a guy named Barry Bonds was patrolling the outfield.  The last time the Steel City actually hosted a meaningful baseball contest was during the 1997 pennant race when the Bucs were just 3’ games behind late in the campaign.  The last time the Pirates got a chance to host the Indians was way back in 2003 and it is worth noting that Pittsburgh owns a “7-1” series edge in front of the HOME fans.  At this point you must be wondering why I would be crazy enough to put a personal monster investment on the last place Pirates who are coming off a very poor 1-5 road swing.  The main reason is that the Pirates for years have been pushing major league baseball to get the Indians as a “natural geographic rival” the same way that baseball’s front office have accommodated the pair of squads in New York, Los Angeles and Chicago.  One of the reasons why the schedule makers have not reacted is because Cleveland has NOT encouraged a natural geographic rivalry.  This particular situation reminds me of the battle that independent East Carolina waged for years in college football when none of the state’s more popular programs wanted to face them.  We also see a similar battle in college basketball where the more successful “mid major” programs have been unable to lure the richer schools to their particular gymnasiums during the non-conference portion of the schedule.  The last time we saw both the Pirates and Indians on the same field was back in 2006 in Cleveland so this indeed is a rare meeting.  I want all of you to be aware that Pittsburgh actually opened yesterday as a favorite (-115) but the price tag has actually fallen due to the fact that the Indians have just activated star centerfielder Grady Sizemore from the disabled list.  Even though Sizemore is one of baseball’s youngest true stars, Pittsburgh also has an impact centerfielder that bats out of the leadoff slot.  The Pirates management actually had to e-mail season ticket subscribers after the recent decision to trade All Star outfielder Nate McClouth to Atlanta in order to make room for baseball’s #1 ranked outfield prospect.  All Andrew McCutchen has done in 17 major league games is hit a hefty .333 at the plate with 9 different “extra” base hits.  In the just completed Pittsburgh 6-game road trip, McCutchen went 10-for-29 at the plate with a homerun, 3 triples, 2 doubles and 6 RBI.  Baseball’s #1 outfield prospect who now bats leadoff for the Pirates will attempt to hit safely in his 11th consecutive game tonight. What has me excited is that McCutchen in 17 games since getting the call from the minors has played in front of the HOME fans just 4 times.  It is safe to assume that there will be plenty of EXTRA fans in the stands this evening at PNC Park as they get to not only watch McCutchen in action, but also to see the Cleveland Indians for the first time since 2003.  In baseball circles there has been plenty of praise in recent seasons regarding Cleveland’s brilliant and young General Manager Mark Shapiro.  In another ironic twist, current Pittsburgh General Manager Neal Huntingdon actually trained for several seasons under Shapiro and he is certainly familiar with how the Indians do business.  I just talked about the Pirates recent promotion of a highly rated outfield prospect that is hitting .333 out of the leadoff spot.  In the past week Pittsburgh promoted yet another outfield prospect as Steve Pearce will be seeing some time in rightfield.  Turning to the subject of Cleveland the Tribe have been a major disappointment for a second consecutive campaign primarily due to a lack of pitching depth.  Other than Cy Young award winner Cliff Lee, the Indians have been filling major holes both in the starting rotation and bullpen which statistically is one of the worst in baseball.  The one star that the Indians have in the bullpen is closer Kerry Wood who promptly BLEW a pair of saves during the weekend in Chicago against a Cubs team he used to play for.  Cleveland’s #2 option in the starting rotation Fausto Carmona has been hit so hard that he was sent all the way down to Class-A in order to get his act together.  In my mind tonight’s starter David Huff (10.80 ROAD ERA) is just a “stop gap” measure for the Tribe and he has allowed a most generous 42 hits in 33 career major league innings.  Pittsburgh’s Ian Snell has been around long enough to register a WIN at Cleveland back in the 2006 campaign.  Even though Snell has a high ERA, he finally snapped a TEN start winless streak last time on the mound and is in my mind severely “under valued”.  My research indicates that Snell has an excellent ERA (2.77) when facing INTERLEAGUE opposition like the Indians.  The bottom line is that with their “geographic rivals” in town for the first time since 2003, the Pirates are going to draw many more fans than normal which opens up a pair of overwhelming angles from my research.  Pittsburgh just happens to be an excellent 8-1 this year when playing in front of crowds of 20-thousand or larger.  But the big news is that Pittsburgh this season is UNDEFEATED (3-0) when playing in front of at least 30-thousand fans as they have outscored the opposition by a combined 23-7! 

 

15-12 premium baseball past sixteen days of coverage

 

25-20 OVERALL PAST SIXTEEN DAYS OF COVERAGE

 

All premium BASKETBALL sides totals 197-186 in calendar year 2009 (including a 64-67 mark in the NBA)

 

50-45 premium baseball past seventy-five days of coverage (high ranking for the entire season to date as professionally monitored by www.sports-watch.com)

 

All PREMIUM sides totals 79-80 past sixty-eight days

 

6-6 all “5 UNIT” Best Bet events since middle of April

 

--4/15 Thunder (+1’) cover by 42’ points in NBA regular season finale in a 126-85 rout

--4/19 Hornets/Nuggets UNDER (194’) barely miss in NBA playoff game with 197 combined points scored

--4/28 Yankees (+100) win by ELEVEN run margin as the opening baseball mamouth event turns into a no-brainer

--5/4 Magic/Celtics UNDER (188’) WINS in a 95-90 NBA playoff final verdict

--5/7 Nationals (+135) WIN and snap the LA Dodgers 13-game home winning streak

--5/14 Royals (-130) fail 9-5 at home in rare National-TV appearance on MLB Network

--5/21 Diamondbacks (-120) WIN 4-3 at Marlins as team rallies in honor of a fellow reliever dealing with a family tragedy

--5/28 Magic/Cavaliers UNDER (191) fails miserably in a 112-102 playoff shootout

--6/6 Orioles (+105) lose 9-4 at Athletics in rare National-TV opportunity

--6/9 Penguins (-120) WIN game six of the Stanley Cup Finals 2-1 at home versus Red Wings (Pittsburgh avoids championship elimination two straight years on home ice)

--6/12 NHL Stanley Cup game seven Penguins/Red Wings OVER (5’) misses in a 2-1 final verdict (UNDEFEATED “8-0” season totals angle fails)

--6/23 Pirates (-105) barely lose a ONE run 5-4 verdict leaving the BASES LOADED in the final inning (first Pittsburgh home game against geographic rival Cleveland since 2003)

 

Third baseball 5-UNIT Best Bet bombshell WINS on 5/21

The Arizona Diamondbacks dealing with a tragedy involving one of their relief pitchers rallied for a 4-3 road triumph

 

TONIGHT’S SPECIAL “5 UNIT” REDZONE BEST BET (Diamondbacks -120 at Marlins in a 7:10 eastern start------Scherzer versus Miller):  The bottom line is that I have been waiting for more than one year for Arizona’s top pitching prospect to finally gain a victory and that is exactly what happened this past Saturday in what resulted in an easy 12-0 triumph on the road.  For those of you who are not familiar with Max Scherzer he currently has a solid 3.35 ERA while racking up 33 strikeout victims in 37 quality innings of work.  Scherzer actually put up similar numbers in his maiden professional voyage a year ago but has constantly been a victim of a severe lack of run support from his teammates.  Thus, despite having a career ERA in the THREE’S, Scherzer amazingly has only 1 career victory to his credit which in my mind makes him severely “undervalued”.  Arizona started their current road trip with one of baseball’s worst team batting averages but in WINNING 3 of the most recent 4 outings, the offense has generated an eye-popping average of more than EIGHT runs per game which to me means a “take” sign.  It has already been a horrible year in Arizona as the team (15-24) currently is tied for the bottom spot in the National League West standings and has already fired their manager in favor of someone who has had virtually no managing experience.  Former pro A.J. Hinch was called down to the field from a front office spot because the D-Backs felt he was the best choice to develop some of the prime young talent that is on the roster.  The hiring of Hinch has drawn negative responses from around the league including the team’s pitching coach who abruptly resigned.  Yesterday the Diamondbacks seemingly reached an absolute low point with word that relief pitcher Scott Schoenweis’ wife was tragically found dead in her home which caused the veteran hurler to leave the team for an indefinite period.  Baseball has already had to endue one tragedy this campaign when promising Angels starter Nick Adenhart lost his life after a game courtesy of a drunk driver.  While the horrible news regarding Schoenweis has affected the clubhouse, I feel this is going to serve as a rallying point for the Diamondbacks who as mentioned earlier are loaded with young talent on the roster.  One of those young players is outfielder Justin Upton who last night swatted a pair of THREE-RUN homers.  After going 4-for-7 at the plate during a make-up Wednesday doubleheader, Upton has a fine batting average (.313) and also leads the team in both RBI (26) and runs scored.  I am sure most of you reading this analysis will be stunned to find out that going into this season Justin Upton was one of only a few major leaguers ever to have posted a .815 OPS by the rip age of 20 years old.  The other major leaguers on that list (Ted Williams, Mickey Mantle, Willie Mays, Ty Cobb, Frank Robinson) are all enshrined in the Hall-of-Fame and were superstar hitters during their playing days.  So far in the month of May Justin Upton (7 HR, 18 RBI) has put up stellar power numbers and now has hit safely in 23 of his last 25 starts.  Arizona also has a hard hitting and young thirdbaseman Mark Reynolds (3 HR last three games) who is just starting to heat up at the plate.  What caught my attention regarding Reynolds was the amazing 4 different STOLEN BASES that he copped yesterday.  What also grabbed my attention yesterday was the fact that veteran infielder Chad Tracy who used to star in Boston picked up his initial 2 hits in the month of May.  Tracy has been so bad this month the D-Backs were forced to bench him in favor of a minor league prospect who just was sent packing back down to Triple-A.  Due to injury, Arizona has seemingly struck gold by calling up minor league outfielder Geraldo Parra (7-for-17) whose promotion was designed to snap some of the youngsters to attention and forcing them to adapt to a WINNING approach.  While the Diamondbacks have won 3 of the past 4 outings, Florida has gone a horrible 5-14 so far in the month of May which has made their opening 11-1 start just a distant memory.  Florida thrived in April courtesy of a talented young pitching staff which has already had to deal with injury and ineffectiveness by projected #1 starter Rickey Nolasco who has an ERA of more than SEVEN.  I will admit that tonight’s starter Andrew Miller was involved in a winning decision last Saturday, but he just recently returned from a 4-week injury absence where he had to deal with a strained oblique muscle.  Since that type of injury normally is very slow to heal, one would think that Miller would be on a strict pitch count tonight.  If that indeed is the case, Florida’s bullpen during yesterday’s doubleheader was stretched to the limit and is exhausted.  Actually in yesterday’s doubleheader marathon, Arizona also had to employ 7 different relievers which pitched an combined 11.2 innings.  It may seem strange but my database research indicates that Arizona is a dazzling 19-5 long term with a “tired” bullpen that has thrown at least 13 innings in a three-game span.  Once again Arizona just yesterday had to deal with a tragedy to a teammate which is certain to galvanize the clubhouse.  Also despite an excellent THREE ERA during his career, Max Scherzer had not had a WINNING decision until last Saturday’s 12-0 cakewalk and truly deserves to string together consecutive victories

 

Second baseball 5-UNIT Best Bet bombshell WINS on 5/7

The lowly Washington Nationals recovered from a 6-0 first inning deficit and pulled off an improbable 11-9 victory, handing the Dodgers their first home loss of the season.  All baseball “5 UNIT” events 3-3 so far

 

TONIGHT’S SPECIAL “5 UNIT” REDZONE BEST BET (Nationals +135 at Dodgers in a 10:10 eastern start--------Zimmerman versus Wolf):  Of course the big story regarding this special pick is the 50-game drug suspension that baseball handed down earlier today to Los Angeles slugger Manny Ramirez who will begin serving that penalty tonight.  But there are many other “intangible” factors that had me thinking Washington Nationals even before the suspension became public knowledge.  Last night the Dodgers ended up setting a modern day baseball record by starting a season 13-0 at home in front of their own fans.  It was way back in the year 1911 (one year before moving into Tiger Stadium) that Detroit had set the original mark of starting a season 12-0 at home.  If you want to go back into ancient history, the actual major league record for consecutive home triumphs to start a season (21) was pulled off in 1880, so it goes without saying that what the Dodgers are doing right now on the diamond is unprecedented for our oldest professional sport.  What was remarkable about the Dodgers last night is that they did not suffer an emotional letdown against an opponent (Washington) who has the worst overall record in baseball, but that just may happen this evening for several reasons.  Wednesday was a very difficult scheduling spot for the visiting Nationals who had to fly all the way across the country WITHOUT the benefit of any rest.  Just the day before Washington had wrapped up a homestand with what turned out to be a 10-10 slugfest that was suspended in extra innings because of rain.  The Nationals should have won that contest well before the rains came but as has been the case all season, the bullpen failed miserably.  Washington started out the season with Joel Hanrahan as their closer but he has since been removed in favor of a “committee” setup.  Leading that committee is Joe Beimel who just came off the disabled list last night and pitched one SCORELESS inning.  I bring up Beimel because he actually spent 3 seasons in a Dodger uniform which gives him special motivation to actual close a game in this short two-game series.  The bottom line is that Washington has had a bit of extra time to get used to the Pacific timezone which will make them more competitive late this evening.  Even though the Nationals have won only 7 times this season, TWO of their victories have come from #5 starter Jordan Zimmerman who is on the mound this evening.  To make a long story short, Zimmerman was one of baseball’s most impressive unknown hurlers during spring training and won his way onto the Nats rotation with what scouts call a nasty array of pitches.  Not only did Jordan Zimmerman WIN his initial pair of major league starting assignments, he gave up only ONE homerun along the way.  I will admit that last time on the mound Zimmerman permitted a season-high 5 runs, but his manager was actually HAPPY with the performance.  Zimmerman refused to get rattled after allowing 3 homers and more importantly walked ZERO batters.  Also in 5.2 innings of work, Washington’s impressive rookie starter racked up 6 different strikeout victims, so we have one lethal underdog hurler on the mound tonight.  I just gave you one “intangible” where Washington had to fly across the country for last night’s game without any rest, but there is another factor to consider as the Dodgers who have just set a major league record are in a classic emotional “letdown” position as their bitter RIVALS (Giants) come to town starting tomorrow night.  As mentioned at the top of this analysis segment baseball nailed slugger Manny Ramirez with a 50-game drug suspension earlier today which is going to have a profound effect on a Dodgers offense that during the 13-0 run of prosperity at home has generated a grand total of 88 runs which is almost 7 per contest.  All Ramirez has done is hit .350 in his career against Washington pitching and his statistics so far in the 2009 campaign (.348, 6 HR, 20 RBI) have been rock solid.  To give you an idea how much the Dodgers are going to miss the “face of the franchise”, Ramirez is among the leaders in all of baseball in both slugging and on-base percentage.  One could argue that Manny has been the biggest drawing card for the Dodgers since the days of Fernando Valenzuela and Ramirez a year ago lifted the franchise into the playoffs.  Without Ramirez last season, the Dodgers were basically a .500 team that leaned heavily on a pitching staff to mask offensive deficiencies so he is going to be sorely missed.  Getting back to Washington their collection of outfielders have combined on 15 homers this year which is NUMBER-TWO in all of baseball.  Nationals thirdsacker Ryan Zimmerman last night extended the majors longest hitting streak to 24 games in a row and his batting average during that run (.353) has been astronomical.  While the Dodgers just lost an impact bat in the middle of their lineup, the Nationals added in the offseason veteran slugger Adam Dunn who annually swats 40+ homers and has had a positive impact on the entire lineup.  Even though Washington’s offense has been outstanding, the combination of poor defense and pitching has done them in.  However as pointed out earlier in this analysis, the Nationals have their BEST starting pitcher on the mound tonight which is one of the reasons why the oddsmakers have not installed this wretched team as more of an underdog.  This evening we have an almost unheard of setup featuring an “overvalued” favorite (Dodgers) who just snapped a record that dates back to 1911 and earlier in the day lost their premier slugger to suspension, facing an “overlooked” squad with baseball’s worst overall mark (Washington) who has clearly their best pitcher on the mound

 

Second NBA postseason 5-UNIT Best Bet bombshell WINS on 5/4

95-90 final score as Celtics tallied just 36 points in the entire opening half

 

TONIGHT’S SPECIAL “5 UNIT” NBA PLAYOFF REDZONE BEST BET (Magic at Celtics UNDER 188’ in a 8:05 eastern tipoff on TNT):  It was one year ago when Boston made one of the league’s most dramatic turnarounds by winning the NBA title on the strength of a smothering defense.  Of course the Celtics defense this campaign took a dramatic hit when the 2008 “defensive player of the year” Kevin Garnett went down with what looks like a season-ending knee injury.  Without Garnett in the lineup, the Celtics come into tonight’s tilt having amazingly played above the posted total 13 times in the most recent 15 outings.  The Celtics just wrapped up a memorable seven-game opening round series against a young and athletic Chicago offense which created countless opportunities from the perimeter.  But tonight Boston opens of a series against an Orlando offense that runs through the post which ultimately will SLOW the pace down which is one of the main reasons why I am personally pounding the UNDER tonight.  The bottom line is that Orlando has one of the tallest and most challenging front-lines in the NBA as the threesome of Dwight Howard, Hedo Turkoglu and Rashard Lewis are all 6’10” or taller.  What has made the Magic such a stellar squad is the combination of “defense and rebounding” led by their superstar who is averaging 13.9 rebounds per contest.  More important is the fact that Dwight Howard recently was awarded the league’s “defensive player of the year” award which means he excels in a critical area that ultimately wins playoff games.  In game six this past Thursday where they eliminated Philadelphia, that Orlando defense held the Sixers to just 89 points on their own homefloor which was exceptional considering that Howard was serving a one-game suspension for elbowing.  In that contest on Thursday, Magic reserve center Marcin Gortat ended up pulling down 15 REBOUNDS, so make no mistake this team is a terror down low in the paint.  With Kevin Garnett still in street clothes, Boston is going to lean heavily on big man Kendrik Perkins to slow down Howard.  If Perkins gets into foul trouble, the Celtics do have 6’9” Brian Scalabrine and 7’-0” Mikki Moore on the bench along with Glen “Big Baby” Davis who has been forced into the starting lineup.  There are many prognosticators that feel lower seeded Orlando is going to win this series since Boston will be without Garnett and defensive specialist Leon Powe who also has suffered a season-ending injury.  In my opinion Boston could actually have success in this series with “single” man coverage on Dwight Howard, while NOT leaving long range perimeter shots open.  The Magic love to dish the basketball out on the perimeter when Howard draws double-coverage, which is why I feel the Celtics would be better off cutting down Orlando’s shot opportunities from up top.  For those of you who watched the just completed Orlando/Philadelphia series, the Magic often were content by simply WALKING the basketball up the court which means we are in store for a lot different series as opposed to the high scoring Boston/Chicago seven-game set.  For those of you who may not have noticed, Orlando’s offense has reached the 100-point plateau just ONCE in the past 13 outings which is why the oddsmakers placed tonight’s opening total in the 180’s.  Prior to game seven a few nights ago, Boston head coach Doc Rivers publicly called on his Celtics to up their defensive intensity.  It is interesting to note that Rivers used to coach the Magic and actually lives in Orlando during the offseason which means he knows a thing or two regarding this particular opponent.  It seems like an eternity since Orlando lost guard Jameer Nelson to a season-ending injury just before he was to appear in the All-Star game.  Not only are the Magic without Nelson at the guard slot, impressive rookie Courtney Lee is also OUT for tonight after suffering a fractured sinus cavity courtesy of a flagrant elbow.  J.J. Redick got a ton of national attention during his collegiate years at Duke, but he has for the most part has spent two professional campaigns sitting on the bench.  Due to Lee’s injury, Redick most likely will be put in Orlando’s starting lineup which will have a negative effect on the offensive flow.  As mentioned earlier in this analysis, Boston has played above the spot at a recent 13-2 clip while Orlando is 10-3 UNDER the past thirteen chances so something has to give.  My database research indicates that Orlando is 16-5 UNDER the past twenty-one times they have faced a solid offensive opponent who averages at least 99 points per game.  If Boston is going to be a serious contender for another NBA title, they must find a way to once again make DEFENSE their top priority

 

Opening baseball “5 UNIT” Best Bet gift 4/28 (Yankees 11-0 shutout road victory)

As you will see below, more than two weeks ago Tuesday presented a great opportunity for the Yankees “blue chip” pitching prospect (Phil Hughes) to prove himself at the major league level as he is finally healthy and confident. 

 

TONIGHT’S SPECIAL “5 UNIT” REDZONE BEST BET (Yankees +100 at Tigers in a 7:05 eastern start------Hughes versus Jackson):  It was almost exactly two years ago when the Yankees top pitching prospect Phil Hughes was working on a NO-HITTER in Texas as he entered the seventh inning, before exiting with a hamstring injury that would literally end his 2007 campaign.  Last year Hughes got off to a disastrous start in the month of April posting a NINE ERA before going on the disabled list once again with both a twisted ankle and more importantly a rib fracture.  It is worth noting that Hughes was effective in a pair of starting assignments last September with a near TWO ERA which tells me that there is still hope for this once untouchable commodity.  For those of you familiar with the Yankees this is an organization that has not shown much patience with young players who normally are dealt in exchange for a high priced and proven veteran.  But one of the main reasons why I am so enthusiastic about the Yankees this evening is that in recent years they actually REFUSED to package Hughes in several possible trades with other organizations which gives you an idea just how much talent he has.  The bottom line regarding Hughes he is finally HEALTHY and has regained his confidence at the minor league level where he posted a 3-0 record together with an ERA (1.86) that was extremely low.  What caught my attention though was the fact that he racked up 19 STRIKEOUT victims in 19 innings of work.  In another statistic that shows his 2009 dominance against Triple-A hitters, Hughes had a 19-to-3 “strikeout to walk ratio” which is spectacular.  There may be some Yankee fans that are down on Hughes, but this kid is only 22 years of age and has a bright future ahead of him.  Hughes is coming to the Yankees at just the right time as the team is in the midst of a 4-game losing streak.  When one considers that the Bronx Bombers did NOT lose 5 games in a row a year ago, odds are very strong they are going to break into the win column on this Tuesday.  Even though we are less than one month into the regular season, it has been a very tough road already for the Yankees who had to do “damage control” on the very first day of spring training with a hastily arranged press conference involving Alex Rodriguez who had to explain his prior and admitted use of steroids.  Shortly after that press conference it was found that A-Rod needed hip surgery which currently has arguably baseball’s best player on the disabled list.  To give you an idea just how much the Yankees miss Rodriguez, I will take you back to last April when A-Rod launched an amazing 14 HOMERS along with 34 RBI.  With this year’s Yankees struggling to produce consistent run production, his presence has definitely been missed.  Of course the Yankees have had to deal with other injury issues including outfielders Hideki Matsui and Xavier Nady.  And then there is the strange case of starting pitcher Chien-Ming Wang (34 ERA) who has lost enough velocity for the team to place him on the disabled list.  Until his injury on the base paths a year ago, Wang had been one of baseball’s most consistent winners and he is being replaced in the rotation tonight by none other than Phil Hughes.  Continuing with Yankee injury news their promising set-up man Brian Bruney has just gone down for the count which makes one wonder who is going to be the bridge to closer Mariano Rivera.  The obvious answer to me would be tomorrow night’s scheduled starter Joba Chamberlain but for now he remains in the rotation.  If not for Chamberlain’s desire to be a starter, odds are Phil Hughes would have started this season in the starting rotation.  But in my opinion, it was probably a good thing for his confidence that Hughes started 2009 in the minor leagues where he has always been dominant.  As mentioned earlier, the Yankees lost their 4th consecutive game last night even though there were a few bright spots as second baseman Robinson Cano extended his hitting streak to 14 in a row.  Meanwhile A-Rod’s latest replacement at third base Ramiro Pena had multiple hits.  I have found out that the Yankees are starting Melky Cabrera in centerfield this evening ahead of Brett Gardner which opens a great opportunity for the veteran.  In the 8 different starts that Cabrera has made, his batting average (.297) has been excellent he may soon be wiggling his way into a regular starting gig, especially with veteran Johnny Damon battling a sore shoulder.  We all know that the Yankees spent an incredible amount of money on 3 marquee free-agents in the offseason primarily to assure being competitive in the opening campaign of the brand new Yankee Stadium.  Due to unexpected empty seats spurred by a poor economy, the Yankees just announced today that they are actually REDUCING some of their ticket prices which has got to hurt the bottom line.  Turning to the hosts of tonight’s game, I will admit that Detroit tied a season-high last night with a 3-game winning streak.  But this is the same Tigers team that one year ago was picked to run away with the American League Central and ended up in LAST place.  Tonight’s starter Edwin Jackson got off to a solid beginning with his new Tigers teammates, but reality set in less than a week ago when he surrendered SIX runs.  But the key to this evening’s selection surrounds Yankee “blue chip” prospect Phil Hughes who has a chance of lifting an entire major league team who right now are having a tough time.  During their long run of prosperity which has led to non-stop National TV coverage, it has been near impossible to get a fair price tag on the Yankees who will appear on ESPN tomorrow night.  But on this Tuesday, we actually do get Joe Girardi’s troops at a near pick-em spot which to me is a dream come true

 

79-80 PREMIUM WAGERS PAST SIXTY-EIGHT DAYS OF COVERAGE

 

--7/1 MARQUEE “4 Unit” Best Bet Giants (+135) barely lose a 2-1 extra inning pitchers duel at Cardinals

--6/25 through 6/30 no premium coverage (personal vacation)

--Wednesday (6/24) BEST BET side Pirates (-130) WIN 10-6 at home versus geographic rival Cleveland

--Wednesday (6/24) BEST BET total Yankees/Braves OVER (9) WINS in an ESPN2 televised 8-4 contest