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59-55 all PREMIUM sides+totals in month of February

13-6 all college basketball BEST BETS in month of January

77-60 college regular season FOOTBALL in 2009

19-11 college football postseason BOWL releases in 2009/2010

146-128 all college BASKETBALL in 2008/2009



131-125 premium college basketball final eighty-two days

49-44 all college basketball postseason wagers


*****"63-52" overall last seventeen weekend cards*****

99-78 PREMIUM "TOTALS" RUN (including Super Bowl 5-Unit Under)

222-194 SIDES-AND-TOTALS PAST 133 DAYS (since Super Sunday)

Football Best Bets wrap up (23-14) since 12/12

All Football BEST BETS 60 PERCENT (71-48) final 100 days of coverage

*****Ranked #1 NFL for the entire regular season plus #1 College Bowls up against the nation's elite handicappers as professionally monitored at (www.sports-watch.com) *****

SUPER BOWL "5 UNIT" TOTALS WIN (48 combined points scored)

TONIGHT'S SPECIAL "5 UNIT" REDZONE BEST BET TOTAL (Super Bowl UNDER 57' in a 6:25 eastern kickoff on CBS): This was an unusual postseason where not only did the higher seeds prosper but almost all operated out of "domed" stadiums. Basically this is the first "true" game in awhile that is actually being played outdoors and I am taking advantage. We did have an outdoor game in Miami last Sunday and the Pro Bowl as predicted soared above a total that was almost the exact same as we have this evening. In the Pro Bowl defenses cannot blitz and are forced into "one on one" coverage so the total deserves to be sky high, but I am not sure a championship game is deserving of a similar spot. Of course the oddsmakers had no choice but to post the highest Super Bowl total ever due to the fact that both offenses have record setting quarterbacks as Drew Brees led the NFL in passer rating (109) and Peyton Manning was not far behind (104.6). Both signal callers passed for more than 4,300 yards and at least 33 touchdowns which are just some of the mind boggling statistics. But the bottom line is that both of these teams have played UNDER "inflated" spots this season which tells me that have just enough defensive presence. New Orleans actually went 3-1 UNDER against opponents from the American Conference with one of them UNDER an enormous spot (57) against New England and Tom Brady (quarterback of the decade). For those of you who may be wondering there were a ton of points scored in that Saints/Patriots contest (38-17 final score) but the oddsmakers bumped up the number just enough to make some money for themselves and we have a similar scenario here. The highest spot for Indianapolis this season was 50' points versus Houston and the game easily went UNDER the total in a 20-17 contest. It is interesting note that the Colts slipped above the spot in 5 of 6 chances this season when the over/under figure was in the "low to mid 40's" but that obviously is not the case tonight. I want to take all of you back to the 2006 NFC Championship game when New Orleans lost at Chicago primarily due to a porous defense that gave up too many points. Despite their high-octane attack the Saints were never a serious contender for the Super Bowl until this campaign when they hired a marquee DEFENSIVE coordinator. For those who may not be aware New Orleans head coach Sean Payton actually "deferred" some of his salary so that the team could sign veteran coordinator Gregg Williams who preaches "old school" physical football. In the preseason Williams hammered home that his personnel needed to be aggressive on every down and go for the football. It comes as no personal shock that the Saints ended up leading the league in "turnover ratio" and it all has to do with Williams who in 1993 learned his craft while serving as a special teams coach alongside then Houston Oilers defensive coordinator Buddy Ryan. Of course this is the same Buddy Ryan who whose infamous "46 defense" revolutionized the NFL in the 1980's and delivered the Chicago Bears of 1985 a Super Bowl title. Like his mentor Gregg Williams believes in going after the opposing quarterback and that is exactly what the Saints accomplished in the NFC Championship where they constantly "hurried" Bret Favre and at one point drove him to the sidelines with an injury. In the Divisional playoff victory against Arizona the New Orleans front-four led by 307-pound tackle Sedrick Ellis repeatedly pushed Kurt Warner's offensive line back in his face. I am fully aware that both NFC playoff contests involving New Orleans were very high scoring by a key factor is that both Minnesota and Arizona's stop-units were riddled with INJURIES. Due to those injuries Arizona became the first team ever to allow at least 45 points in consecutive postseason contests. Minnesota in the Divisional round saw one of their best pass rushers suffer a significant injury and they were already operating with a rookie middle linebacker. This particular Super Bowl reminds me of the Patriots/Giants matchup a few years ago as the only way an underdog can win is to rattle a superstar quarterback by shredding his trusted offensive line and presenting so many defensive looks that the final whistle blows before he can figure out how to respond. The most successful NFL team in the past decade was New England where coach BillBelichick was a master of disguising a multitude ofcoverages that would confuse the opposition. Of course the big media story this week has been the health of Indianapolis star defensive rusher Dwight Freeney but the Colts during the regular season often played without him. Indianapolis very quietly has a "hard hat" defense that has allowed only 20 points in the playoffs and held the Jets scoreless for an entire half. The Colts defense is underrated as they operate under Peyton Manning's shadow. With more size and speed than unusual (pair of starting tackles at more than 310 pounds) Indy tied for #2 in the entire NFL in scoring defense through the initial 14 games before they ultimately stopped trying. Here is a whopping "22-4" SYSTEM (84% past five years with a lofty posted total of 49' points or higher) which plays teams like Indianapolis with a poor pass defense whose completion percentage against is 60%-or-worse UNDER the total when off a game where they averaged 8+ yards per pass attempt. Continuing with Indianapolis they are 7-0 UNDER the past two years after allowing at least 6 yards per play in the previous game. New Orleans is 6-0 UNDER for the entire season after a game where they allowed 400+ total yards. Do I hear 7-0 UNDER anyone?!


SUPER BOWL INTANGIBLE SIDE (Saints +5' versus Colts in a 6:25 eastern kickoff on CBS): As you can see in the above analysis the main reason why New Orleans has finally reached their initial Super Bowl has to do with the offseason hiring of defensive coordinator Gregg Williams who alone has made this squad #1 in NFL forced turnovers and we all know how critical turnovers are in big games. By just mere statistics there is no way that Minnesota actually lost the NFC Championship as they went up and down the field to the tune of 475 total yards, but the 5 turnovers forced by the Saints opportunistic defense cashed their ticket to Miami. The bottom line regarding this pick is that neither of these sides are true "margin" teams which makes TAKING the available points intriguing. Indianapolis had 7 different games this season decided by "four or less" points as they rode the exceptional talent of Peyton Manning in the final quarter. New Orleans registered 5 separate "come from behind" victories where they dug themselves out of an early hole. The intangibles of this contest have to do in part to the fact that this is the 50th-anniversary season of the old AFL which became a legitimate league in Super Bowl 3 when Joe Namath came through with his infamous guarantee and the Jets pulled off a massive upset in a contest played at MIAMI which is the site of this year's event. We have seen plenty of marquee quarterbacks play CLOSE Super Bowls in Miami through the years including Joe Montana's fourth quarter miracle comeback against San Francisco that put a wrap on the 1980's. There is no question that Peyton Manning has the edge over Drew Brees especially in big-game experience, but that does not necessarily mean a spread triumph. In the early stages of this campaign New Orleans averaged about 150 rush yards per contest which is way above the statistics put up by the almost non-existent Colts running game. Of course a sustained rushing attack leads to longer drives and New Orleans conceivably has a big edge in that area. Both of these teams dealt with media criticism of resting players down the stretch which is another indication where there is not that much disparity between these clubs. One could make a strong argument that Indianapolis should be a two-touchdown favorite in this contest since they had a chance of running the table for the entire season, so that opening price tag set by the oddsmakers (-3') was in my opinion extremely telling. For those of you who may not be aware no team has ever won the Super Bowl after losing 3 consecutive regular season contests which puts New Orleans behind the eight-ball so to speak. But one of those setbacks was against which snapped a 13-game winning streak was triggered by a television analyst that created "bulletin board" material. NBC commentator Tony Dungy proclaimed that Dallas had absolutely no shot at upsetting the then undefeated Saints in New Orleans. Following the stunning result one of the Dallas players commented that Dungy's comments the prior week had actually inspired them. I bring up the subject of the Colts former head coach because just this week Dungy has proclaimed in the media that Indianapolis should essentially crush New Orleans and hopefully that challenge has reached the Saints locker room. This is a very large "revenge" battle for New Orleans who made it all the way to the 2006 NFC Championship game. The last time New Orleans faced the Colts was the heavy hyped regular season 2007 NBC-TV primetime opener where DrewBrees and company were crushed by a 41-10 count. While on the subject of Brees he almost ended up in Miami but the Dolphins ultimately passed deciding that he would never fully recover from a shoulder injury. Not only doesBrees return to the city of Miami for the biggest game of his life, he also directed an incredible comeback at Dolphins Stadium earlier in the campaign. My database research indicates that Brees in his career is an excellent 19-5 ATS when facing a marquee opponent that has a win percentage of .700 or higher. Meanwhile in the past seventeen years Indianapolis is an extremely poor 3-12 ATS/ROAD in the second-half of the season against solid rushing teams that average at least 130 yards per game on the ground and earlier in this analysis I indicated how important running the football is. I will wrap up this analysis with an UNDEFEATED two-year angle which simply states that New Orleans is 8-0 ATS against "non" conference opposition. Do I hear 9-0 ATS anyone?!


Yet another NFL Best Bet Sunday winner in a 41-34 Pro Bowl shootout

TONIGHT'S "3 UNIT" REDZONE BEST BET NFL TOTAL (Pro Bowl OVER 57' in a 7:20 eastern kickoff on ESPN): Of course the big story here is that for the first time ever the NFL's All-Star game is being moved one week ahead of the Super Bowl in an effort to generate more television ratings along with more fans in the stands. Dating all the way back to 1980 the Pro Bowl has annually been held in Hawaii as a "vacation award" for the participating players, but the bottom line is that this move to the mainland has already paid off for the league as there will be a sellout crowd of more than 70-thousand at Dolphins Stadium in Miami. With that anticipated sellout we are looking at the heaviest attended Pro Bowl in FIFTY YEARS. As previously mentioned the league also is attempting to transform their All-Star game into a bigger game by playing it the week before Super Sunday. I for one agree with recent comments by commissioner RogerGoodell in that this year's Pro Bowl has already garnered more ATTENTION from the public and media as it is being showcased on a weekend where there is usually no football and interest in the NFL is at its highest. For the mere sake of television ratings the league would love to see a high scoring and competitive Pro Bowl which is one of the reasons why I am so enthusiastic about the OVER even though we have an extremely high posted total. The bottom line is that with the Pro Bowl being played a full 2 weeks earlier than normal the participating players are in BETTER SHAPE. Of course the placement of the All-Star game the various elected players who will be participating in next week's Super Bowl will not be taking the field, but that has just opened up OPPORTUNITY for many personnel who do not get many National-TV opportunities during the regular season. Houston quarterback Matt Schaub very quietly led the entire NFL with 4,770 passing yards and has been given the opportunity to start for the AFC after the loss of Peyton Manning along with injuries to Tom Brady and Phillip Rivers. Not onlyis the Texans quarterback now a starter, so is his favorite target Andre Johnson who actually GREW UP in the Miami area and played collegiately for the Hurricanes. Johnson along with Marvin Harrisonare the only wide receivers in league history to have consecutive 1,500+ yard receptions seasons. Also at one of the wide out spots for the AFC is the outspoken ChadOchocinco who loves to give inspired performances both for the fans and more importantly for his own personal attention. Ochocinco spent the regular season stuck in a Cincinnati offense that was "run oriented" but this evening gets to strut his stuff against league mandated "one on one" coverage. It is interesting to note that the AFC offense also had 3 running backs (Chris Johnson, Ray Rice, Maurice Jones-Drew) who have the ability to CATCH the football out of the backfield which increases receiving options. As far as the NFC offense is concerned they have 3 quarterbacks (Aaron Rodgers, Donovan McNabb,Tony Romo) who all have STRONG throwing arms suited for DEEP passes. Just like the AFC receivers, the National Conference wideouts have the benefit of only dealing with "one on one" defensive coverage. Traditionally Pro Bowls are very high scoring because in an effort to avoid injuries the defenses are not allowed to employ the blitz and also lack the preparation time to install any elaborate schemes. Last year's Pro Bowl featured only 51 combined points score but once again this year's event is being played two weeks earlier where the various offensive personnel are in much better shape. The tinkering with this year's Pro Bowl to boost ratings and attendance basically encourages a higher scoring contest than normal


*****Ranked #1 NFL for the entire regular season plus #1 College Bowls up against the nation's elite handicappers as professionally monitored at (www.sports-watch.com) *****


A special "5 UNIT" Best Bet bombshell on the Colts (-3') to cover the first-half cashed a WINNING ticket as well as a "3 Unit" major move on Indianapolis in a 20-3 rout of the Ravens (UNDER the total also comes through)

TONIGHT'S NFL "3 UNIT" TRIPLE PLAY MAJOR SIDE (Colts -6 at home versus Ravens in an 8:15 eastern kickoff on CBS): Of course there has been major controversy in Indianapolis in regards to the squad coughing up a chance to run the table in the regular season where they rested regulars down the stretch. But the bottom line is that due to that strategy Indianapolis is much HEALTHIER than tonight's opponent. Last weekend we all saw Baltimore pull off a stunning upset of a New England contingent that had won 23 consecutive home playoff outings. But due to massive injuries that Ravens victory was not nearly as impressive as one would have thought. While the Colts were getting "brow beaten" in the national media for letting up on the gas pedal, the Patriots lost their #1 receiving option and NFL leader Wes Welker on the final Sunday of the regular campaign. With his absence all that Baltimore had to do was double-team New England's other star receiving option Randy Moss who just happened to MISS a practice session late in the week due to injury. New England was extremely defensive when CBS studio analyst Charley Casserly reported a couple of weeks ago that superstar Tom Brady was playing with 3 cracked ribs. No matter what the Patriots said it was obvious that Brady was not near 100% last weekend. On the other side of the football New England was operating with a patchwork defense that was torn apart by veterans simply getting too old to perform at a high level. Thus once again it is not worth reading too far into what appeared to be a superlative effort by Baltimore last weekend. Even though it did not come into play during the Wildcard playoff Ravens quarterback JoeFlacco completed only FOUR passes in part due to hip injury that clearly affected his throwing motion. One of Baltimore's few solid receiving options (veteran tight end Todd Heap) ended up getting his back twisted and comes into this evening NOT at 100% efficiency. Once again even though it did not become a major issue last week since they grabbed an early 24-point lead courtesy of turnovers the fact of the matter is that Baltimore's defensive secondary is BANGED UP which should have Peyton Manning salivating. Even though Indianapolis struggled for the most part on third-down conversions, there is a reason why Manning is attempting to become the 15th player to be named MVP and win the Super Bowl in the same season (most recent way back in 1999). Even though the Ravens stop-unit led by the emotional Ray Lewis has the ability to harass opposing quarterbacks, Peyton Manning receives excellent protection and no one is better at making pre-snap adjustments. Give Manning time and he will shred a Ravens secondary relying on RESERVE cornerbacks Chris Carr and Frank Walker who have been forced into the starting lineup. Even thought it seems like an eternity, Peyton Manning in the regular season finale completed 14-of-18 passes in the SNOW at Buffalo before getting pulled in the second stanza. I am aware that Indianapolis is operating with a rookie head coach but the fact of the matter is that Jim Caldwell has been on the Colts staff since 2002. The amazing coaching continuity that the Colts have enjoyed is major even though often unheralded in the national press. I am also aware that Indianapolis is 0-3 in the playoffs following a Bye week but all that is going to do is inspire this group who comes in with a collective chip on their shoulder. According to my database research the fact that Indianapolis pulled their defensive starters a couple of weeks ago in the snow makes them an incredible percentage wager this evening. In the past three years Indianapolis is 7-0 ATS after allowing at least 6 yards per play in the prior game. Do I hear 8-0 ATS anyone?!

NFL DIVISIONAL PLAYOFF NFC (Saints in a 45-14 rout)

NFL PLAYOFF PERCENTAGE SIDE (Saints -7 at home versus Cardinals in a 4:35 eastern kickoff on FOX): The key to this selection surrounds the critical area of TURNOVERS which can swing a football game in an instant. Of the twelve teams that made the playoffs Arizona has committed the most miscues as their turnover margin (-7) is horrible. On the other hand the opportunistic Saints ranked #2 in the entire NFL with 39 takeaways and a PLUS-ELEVEN turnover margin. A new defensive coordinator along with new personnel such as safety Darren Sharper (9 interceptions, 3 picks returned for score) literally transformed the team. The New Orleans defense has gone from being the primary weakness to one that has made "game changing" plays. Regular clients know that I personally loaded up on Arizona one week ago as they banded together even though star wide receiverAnquan Boldin (ankle, knee) was unable to play. It will be much tougher for Arizona to cover for Boldin once again this week since they are now playing on the road. As mentioned in last Sunday's analysis many of the Arizona players were irked that Green Bay treated both the regular season finale and a preseason exhibition contest seriously. The shoe is on the other foot this week as New Orleans is now the squad that has to prove themselves as that amazing 13-0 start to the campaign suddenly became ancient history. One of the main reasons why New Orleans struggled down the stretch was due to major injuries to the offense which cost tight end Jeremy Shockey (toe) 3 games. Both Shockey and wide receiver Lance Moore are expected to be back on the field late this afternoon as well as impact rusher Pierre Thomas who cracked three ribs in a late season setback. While on the subject of New Orleans running backs veteran Deuce McAllister will be in uniform to add EMOTION on the sidelines as a ceremonial team captain. This was a class move by New Orleans who originally dropped the veteran running back following the 2008 campaign. Of course the Saints have much to prove after going 2-3 down the stretch while struggling in both victories. I love the CONFIDENCE shown by Saints head coach Sean Payton who actually gave his players most of last week off. One will never forget that infamous Monday Night affair which marked the Saints return to the Superdome following Hurricane Katrina which destroyed the city and there will be plenty of raw emotion inside that building late this afternoon. One could make a strong argument that the Saints would not have survived in New Orleans if not gaining the services of quarterback Drew Brees who has done an amazing job with local HUMANITARIAN causes off the field of play which has created an extremely strong bond between Brees and the community. Brees set an NFL record for completion percentage (.706) and today will face an Arizona defense that was shredded a week ago (45 points allowed) coughing up a sizeable early lead. Going into last weekend Arizona had no less than FIVE INJURED players and they have had a "short week" to prepare. Last weekend there was no way Arizona should have been extended into overtime as veteran kicker NeilRackers missed a very short field goal attempt. One has to wonder about the mental capacity of Rackers this week which gives the Saints an edge in special teams. Here is a 74-PERCENT SYSTEM (34-12 past decade) that goes AGAINST road underdogs of 3'-to-10 points like Arizona off an upset win as an underdog, and facing an opponent off a road loss. But the big news from the database is the fact that New Orleans is 6-0 ATS the past two years when shaking off an outright road setback. Do I hear 7-0 ATS anyone?!



ALABAMA covers the BCS Championship


--1/1 "5 UNIT" Bowl event Northwestern/Auburn OVER (55) WINS in a 38-35 shootout

--1/1 ROSE BOWL BEST BET Ohio State (+4) OUTRIGHT 26-17 upset of Oregon

--1/1 BOWL PARLAY Florida State (+3) OUTRIGHT 33-21 upset in Bobby Bowden's finale

--1/1 BOWL PARLAY Penn State (-1) COVERS in a 19-17 triumph over LSU

--1/2 BEST BET East Carolina (+7') COVERS in an overtime 20-17 thriller

--1/2 Cotton Bowl Total Mississippi/Oklahoma State UNDER (51) WINS in very low scoring 21-7 contest (23 point cover)

--1/2 South Florida (-7) COVERS in a 27-3 rout of Northern Illinois

--1/2 Liberty Bowl Total Arkansas/East Carolina UNDER (63') WINS with ease in 20-17 overtime game (26' point cover)

--1/4 TCU (-7) loses outright 17-10 in the Fiesta Bowl

--1/4 Fiesta Bowl Boise State/Texas Christian UNDER (54) WINS with ease in very low scoring 17-10 contest (27 point cover)

--1/5 Georgia Tech (-5') loses outright versus Iowa in the Orange Bowl (first time in 2 years Yellow Jackets fail to cover against quality defensive opponent)

--1/5 Proposition first score field goal or safety (+180) fails

--1/6 Troy State/Central Michigan UNDER (63) fails in 44-41 Double-OT shootout (1:17 away from covering in regulation)

--1/7 Special "5 UNIT" BCS Championship Best Bet Texas/Alabama OVER (23) in the first half WINS with 30 combined points scored in the opening half

--1/7 BCS Championship Alabama (-4) COVERS in 37-21 triumph versus Texas

--1/7 BCS Championship Texas/Alabama UNDER (17') in second-half fails to cover

--1/7 BCS Championship Proposition special teams or defensive touchdown (+135) WINS

Ranked #1 NFL and #2 college football for the entire regular season up against the nation's elite handicappers as professionally monitored at (www.sports-watch.com)




Including special "5 UNIT" bombshell Northwestern/Auburn OVER (55) in a 38-35 shootout

Plus a ROSE BOWL BEST BET as Ohio State (+4) wins OUTRIGHT

Football Best Bet sides-and-totals incredible "17-6" in month of December

Ranked #1 NFL and #2 college football for the entire regular season up against the nation's elite handicappers as professionally monitored at (www.sports-watch.com)


Including the BCS Championship OVER (23) WINNING on 1/7 as combined 30 points were tallied in the opening half